1st round draft choices

[Refugee]

3 hours ago, TransientTexan said:

I’m not assuming they’ll be gone. But I’m not assuming they’ll re-sign either, or that GB will think that they can’t be upgraded. How much is GB really willing to spend on guys that are merely “ok”? They might get outbid once the FA money starts flying around.

GB also doesn’t tend to put all their eggs in 1 basket. They’ll often draft a guy to add competition to the mix and get more depth (even if they do end up re-signing the player).  It gives them leverage in negotiations. 
 

 

Linemen take time. Even good ones grow quite a bit after their first contract. We’ll see where Myers lands.  Up to this point, he hasn’t been what we hoped for his investment but he also hasn’t been bad. When he gets that big body moving out in space, he causes problems. JRJ and Newman, depends on what our needs are but I wouldn’t be surprised to keep one of them on a decent contract. 

[Sandy]

If the right player is available, o-line is always in play for a first round pick.

But this is a great draft to get a value pick at Edge at 15. 

[DamSamn]

20 minutes ago, Sandy said:

If the right player is available, o-line is always in play for a first round pick.

But this is a great draft to get a value pick at Edge at 15. 

generally agreed on the O-line part...or D-line for that matter

not understanding the notion of a value pick for edge @ 15 -I don't want to parse words and I'm probably mixing Ends and edges together, but I'd suggest GB likes bigger edges-anyway I would expect Anderson from Alabama, Wilson from TX Tech, and Murphy from Clemson to be gone by pick 15...and then I think there's some space until you get to guys like VanNess-IA, Foskey-ND, White-GT and the guy from Army (who I can't remember but don't know his actual draft status anyway)-and I like those guys, but I don't think I'd call any of them great value picks at 15-if you want one of those three remaining, i think you could trade back and get one of them-now, if you really liked one, you go get him...I'm not sure you be wrong to take him at 15, but I don't think it's a great value pick-I think there's enough decent depth at edge in this draft that you could pull a guy that can play in the second round

[DamSamn]

13 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Regarding Robinson:  I am not a fan of drafting RBs high, or paying them.  But he is really good.  Also to consider, if the Packers are to take a RB at all, it is probably gong to be a redshirt year for that back.  We already have two good RBs that know the protections and have already been invested in, second contract for Jones and second round pick for Dillon. Whichever guy would be the odd man out, is a decent investment sitting on the bench.  I would be a lot more interested in a RB next season when (I think) both of our RBs are FAs.

 

I am also kind of curious about the Skoronski love across the group here.  Is JRJ that bad that he needs to be replaced? I feel like he is solid, and while I probably don't make him a big priority for a second contract, I think we have shown that investing in guards later is not a bad value.  And I also like Walker's game at RT in the preseason last year.  I feel like between Walker and Jones we have a future RT on the squad already.  But as a disclaimer, I REALLY like the 2022 Packers draft class.

I get your point about the potential for unrequited love re: Skoronski-I think he is probably a better than avg guard in the nfl, with the potential to be a tackle-probably right tackle (i think Bulaga is a decent comp on the guy)-that said, I think some of our standard ideas about O-line have to adjust-we used to value left tackle above all, but i think modern defenses move guys around so much that it is not as big of a difference from left to right-and I know "blind side"-but I'd also argue that guard wasn't highly valued and i think modern defenses pressure those inside gaps way more than they used to, so you need more than road graders there.  There are still plenty of college tackles that translate well to guard in the nfl, so maybe I'd rethink Skoronski at 15 - but I also think there will be a lot of changes on that O-line for 2024 -and I hope one of the young guys -Walker, Jones- can develop into  a RT, but i don't know, so a guy like Skoronski might be good roster mgmt

[OneTwoSixFive]

@TransientTexan I'd call Runyan above average myself, though I admit Nijman could easily be considered merely ok, or good as a backup.

Given the current cap problems, it is certainly possible the Packers get rid of players that are at least decent, just to give them cap relief - they really have dug a hole for themselves here - and getting out of it will be painful, one way or another.

[TransientTexan]

3 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

@TransientTexan I'd call Runyan above average myself, though I admit Nijman could easily be considered merely ok, or good as a backup.

Given the current cap problems, it is certainly possible the Packers get rid of players that are at least decent, just to give them cap relief - they really have dug a hole for themselves here - and getting out of it will be painful, one way or another.

I’m just figuring they are in the category of Evan Dietrich-Smith. Not bad to have, but also not someone you’re going to get in a bidding war over in FA. They can probably get more on the open market.

[TransientTexan]

7 hours ago, DamSamn said:

generally agreed on the O-line part...or D-line for that matter

not understanding the notion of a value pick for edge @ 15 -I don't want to parse words and I'm probably mixing Ends and edges together, but I'd suggest GB likes bigger edges-anyway I would expect Anderson from Alabama, Wilson from TX Tech, and Murphy from Clemson to be gone by pick 15...and then I think there's some space until you get to guys like VanNess-IA, Foskey-ND, White-GT and the guy from Army (who I can't remember but don't know his actual draft status anyway)-and I like those guys, but I don't think I'd call any of them great value picks at 15-if you want one of those three remaining, i think you could trade back and get one of them-now, if you really liked one, you go get him...I'm not sure you be wrong to take him at 15, but I don't think it's a great value pick-I think there's enough decent depth at edge in this draft that you could pull a guy that can play in the second round

That’s what I was figuring. I’ve seen Foskey & VanNess listed all over the place, from mid-1st to early 2nd. Though that could certainly change after the combine. 

even though Gary & Smith probably have the top 2 spots locked up for a while, I’m not opposed to Edge at #15, if there is a guy that they like & don’t have to reach for. Could compete with Enagbare for #3, and fill in while Gary is recovering.

Edges are more risky positions to draft than OL though, and there are supposed to be a lot of them to pick from on Day 2 this year. 

 

 

[ThatJerkDave]

30 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

That’s what I was figuring. I’ve seen Foskey & VanNess listed all over the place, from mid-1st to early 2nd. Though that could certainly change after the combine. 

even though Gary & Smith probably have the top 2 spots locked up for a while, I’m not opposed to Edge at #15, if there is a guy that they like & don’t have to reach for. Could compete with Enagbare for #3, and fill in while Gary is recovering.

Edges are more risky positions to draft than OL though, and there are supposed to be a lot of them to pick from on Day 2 this year. 

 

 

Just as an estimation, I would guess that Gary will be out or not nearly as effective for about half the season this year.  So, that leaves Smith and Enagbare as starters, and Jonathan Garvin and Ladarius Hamilton as the back-ups.  I like what Enagbare did as a rookie, and I think that there is definitely a future there.  But at this point, anything that we get from Garvin or Hamilton is pure bonus.  There is definitely room for an extra rusher this season.  The big question is, how much do you want to invest in that player? Also, the team gets into the part of Smith's contract where they free cap space by cutting him after 2023.  Just in case more cap space is needed.

[TransientTexan]

5 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Just as an estimation, I would guess that Gary will be out or not nearly as effective for about half the season this year.  So, that leaves Smith and Enagbare as starters, and Jonathan Garvin and Ladarius Hamilton as the back-ups.  I like what Enagbare did as a rookie, and I think that there is definitely a future there.  But at this point, anything that we get from Garvin or Hamilton is pure bonus.  There is definitely room for an extra rusher this season.  The big question is, how much do you want to invest in that player? Also, the team gets into the part of Smith's contract where they free cap space by cutting him after 2023.  Just in case more cap space is needed.

True, but how likely is it for a rookie to be playing well in the first 8 games of his career? Odds are that by the time he has his legs under him, Gary will be back. 

and I highly doubt that GB will realistically move on from Smith until after 2024. The dead money is still too high, and they’ll figure that in 2024, whatever Smith provides will likely be better than what the extra $2m in savings would buy them on the open market. 

The GB defense didn’t do that bad down the stretch in 2022 with Gary out. Last 5 games, they held opponents under their season averages, & ppg allowed would be on pace for #3 in the league.
 

 

 

[Kampfgeist]

On 2/25/2023 at 9:05 AM, packfanfb said:

You and I get full credit if we end up taking Keion. Not many people talking about him yet.

I like White a lot but his big knock is he just turned 24 in January.   Obviously didn't stop them from drafting Wyatt last year - but I'm not sure if that was an anomaly or a trend

[Kampfgeist]

On 2/25/2023 at 8:28 AM, Tperk said:

I want Johnston, but wouldn't complain about either OT. I do not want Van Ness as a FRP at 15. Robinson would be interesting for sure, but I don't see a way for him to get touches with Jones and Dillon in the mix currently.

Jones and Robinson get the touches, Dillon does not.

Would be surprised to see Robinson but wouldn't be unhappy.    21 yrs old and only 453 carries over the last two seasons.   He's got a lot of tread on those tires for a future 2nd contract -- he's an 8+ yr plug n play lead back.      For comparison Jonathan Taylor, who I think is phenomenal, left the Badgers with 926 carries and 627 over his final two seasons.

 

[Sandy]

17 hours ago, DamSamn said:

generally agreed on the O-line part...or D-line for that matter

not understanding the notion of a value pick for edge @ 15 -I don't want to parse words and I'm probably mixing Ends and edges together, but I'd suggest GB likes bigger edges-anyway I would expect Anderson from Alabama, Wilson from TX Tech, and Murphy from Clemson to be gone by pick 15...and then I think there's some space until you get to guys like VanNess-IA, Foskey-ND, White-GT and the guy from Army (who I can't remember but don't know his actual draft status anyway)-and I like those guys, but I don't think I'd call any of them great value picks at 15-if you want one of those three remaining, i think you could trade back and get one of them-now, if you really liked one, you go get him...I'm not sure you be wrong to take him at 15, but I don't think it's a great value pick-I think there's enough decent depth at edge in this draft that you could pull a guy that can play in the second round

It's a little early to make such concrete determinations, as I don't form solid opinions of edge rushers until the combine. I like to take a look at their explosion exercise results before ranking them.

Still, in this early part of the offseason I see 5 edge rushers in my top 10 players. Van Ness and White join Anderson, Murphy and Wilson in my rankings, and I would bet at least one of those five makes it to 15, which to me is great value.

[Dubz41]

OL- yes, just not in first round (unless it's Paris Johnson) 

Edge- after the first three they are all development players. VanNess is a project.  Deep class, no need to rush it.

TEs- too early.

Brian Branch? Maybe. Do it all safety. Reminds me of Leroy Butler.

But...how about a little pizazz. Zay Flowers. Wrote him off early, too small. But after watching more of him and catching his interviews? He's my crush for February.  Instant excitement. 

[ThatJerkDave]

7 hours ago, TransientTexan said:

True, but how likely is it for a rookie to be playing well in the first 8 games of his career? Odds are that by the time he has his legs under him, Gary will be back. 

and I highly doubt that GB will realistically move on from Smith until after 2024. The dead money is still too high, and they’ll figure that in 2024, whatever Smith provides will likely be better than what the extra $2m in savings would buy them on the open market. 

The GB defense didn’t do that bad down the stretch in 2022 with Gary out. Last 5 games, they held opponents under their season averages, & ppg allowed would be on pace for #3 in the league.
 

 

 

I think Enagbare showed enough last season to get a bump up in PT and should hold up pretty well.  I think we got a steal with that pick.  Any addition is likely the 3rd or 4th in the rotation until Gary gets going.  I am assuming that if we take a first or second round rusher, he will be better than Garvin or Hamilton, and be developed for the future.  And, I am kind of looking to have Preston Smith's replacement on the team before he departs.  I think it is a need at a premium position.  I think the team's biggest needs are safety and tight end.  I don't know how likely either of those selections would be.  

[fattlipp]

8 hours ago, Kampfgeist said:

Jones and Robinson get the touches, Dillon does not.

Would be surprised to see Robinson but wouldn't be unhappy.    21 yrs old and only 453 carries over the last two seasons.   He's got a lot of tread on those tires for a future 2nd contract -- he's an 8+ yr plug n play lead back.      For comparison Jonathan Taylor, who I think is phenomenal, left the Badgers with 926 carries and 627 over his final two seasons.

 

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