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Who Trades Up to 1?


goldfishwars

Who moves up to 1?  

34 members have voted

  1. 1. Who moves up to 1?

    • Houston
      6
    • Indianapolis
      19
    • Seattle
      0
    • Detroit
      0
    • Las Vegas
      0
    • Atlanta
      1
    • Carolina
      7
    • Other (Please State)
      1


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4 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I was fairly confident that it'd be the Colts but I could see them being patient and going with Richardson/Levis at #4. 

I would agree if I didn't think Jim Irsay had Ballard on an incredibly short leash.  Ballard would probably be patient, but Irsay is more of a loose cannon.  

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1 hour ago, TankWilliams said:

I would agree if I didn't think Jim Irsay had Ballard on an incredibly short leash.  Ballard would probably be patient, but Irsay is more of a loose cannon.  

Correct. Ballard has always been a big traits guy so waiting on Levis/Richardson makes a lot of sense if he's at the wheel and not Irsay/Steichen.

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2 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

Why is that? What have you seen to make you think ATL is set at QB?  Not criticizing, I just have not heard that perspective yet.  

The Falcons coaches love Desmond Ridder. They haven't publicly come out and named him the starter, but internal belief is that he's the starter for 2023. They likely won't trade up because they don't have to press the starting QB position and can truly see what Ridder can do. He never had Kyle Pitts last year and they'd love to get him in there with Pitts and London and see how that works. The QB role in Atlanta's offense is just to distribute the ball to the playmakers and let the playmakers go out there and kill it. And if they won't trade 2 1sts for Lamar Jackson, it's pretty obvious they aren't trading up for a QB. 

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20 minutes ago, scar988 said:

The Falcons coaches love Desmond Ridder. They haven't publicly come out and named him the starter, but internal belief is that he's the starter for 2023. They likely won't trade up because they don't have to press the starting QB position and can truly see what Ridder can do. He never had Kyle Pitts last year and they'd love to get him in there with Pitts and London and see how that works. The QB role in Atlanta's offense is just to distribute the ball to the playmakers and let the playmakers go out there and kill it. And if they won't trade 2 1sts for Lamar Jackson, it's pretty obvious they aren't trading up for a QB. 

At least for the last part, I don't necessarily think not being interested in Lamar means not being interested in trading up.  Lamar has other baggage with his contract discussions and has had health issues lately. 

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10 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

At least for the last part, I don't necessarily think not being interested in Lamar means not being interested in trading up.  Lamar has other baggage with his contract discussions and has had health issues lately. 

There hasn't been any discussions in a trade up from any of the sources that are out there. The idea is that they sign a veteran to compete with Ridder and go with Ridder more than likely this year. It's a boring way to go about it for people in forums like this, but they have a plan to build the team before going all out for the QB. And I think it's a smart move.

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11 minutes ago, scar988 said:

There hasn't been any discussions in a trade up from any of the sources that are out there. The idea is that they sign a veteran to compete with Ridder and go with Ridder more than likely this year. It's a boring way to go about it for people in forums like this, but they have a plan to build the team before going all out for the QB. And I think it's a smart move.

In principal, I generally agree with everything you're saying here and it's what I think will happen as well.  That said, there is plenty that usual sources never hear, so absence of something doesn't wholly disprove it from happening.  Some teams are better than others, but most teams have stuff that doesn't get out.  I remember the DJ Reader signing coming out of nowhere for the Bengals when that happened and being so pumped about it.  Was on none of the Bengals beat radar until the day it happened they heard some rumblings.

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31 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

In principal, I generally agree with everything you're saying here and it's what I think will happen as well.  That said, there is plenty that usual sources never hear, so absence of something doesn't wholly disprove it from happening.  Some teams are better than others, but most teams have stuff that doesn't get out.  I remember the DJ Reader signing coming out of nowhere for the Bengals when that happened and being so pumped about it.  Was on none of the Bengals beat radar until the day it happened they heard some rumblings.

Definitely one of those read between the lines for the off-record stuff. Beat guys aren't thinking a trade up is happening at all. At least, not for a QB. They love Anderson and Carter though.

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20 hours ago, Epyon said:

Houston trades up to #1, simply because they don't want Indy to take "their guy" and I think their 2 and 32 gets the deal done.

I think Carolina or maybe Tennessee ends up drafting at #2 though..... the value zone of this draft is picks like 8-60 with a ton of talent all having similar grades, and I think Poles won't see much difference between picking #4 and picking #9 (or 11), when it also means significantly more draft capital coming back his way if he moved down further.

I'd add, if Chicago traded down to 4, I can't see them then being able to move that pick for more capital. So basically if Indy wanted #2 they'd need to be matching (with their own higher picks) the trades that teams trading all the way from 9 or 11 would be putting up...... and if they wanted #1, they'd need to match that AND the value from Houston trading up.

TLDR I don't think it's the colts picking #1 unless they are -=dramatically=- overpaying relative to the rest of the field. #4 overall this draft just isn't that valuable.

Pick 4 is pretty valuable to teams looking for pass rushers and who don't need a QB. If Chicago trades down to 4, I think they stay there and pick Carter/Anderson. For the Bears to try to move to 2 and then 4, might be playing it too cute. I agree that pick 33 is likely enough to get Houston from 2 to 1 but then Indy might not pay nearly as much to go from 4 to 2 as from 4 to 1 if Texans take same player Indy wanted. 

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I hope they trade down as many times as possible and they make a movie about it.  There are multiple QBs people could fall in love with.  Anderson, Carter, ect.

1 to 2.  2 to 4.  4 to 9.  9 depends on who is there and what they could receive.  Pick up a bunch of guys they love in the 2nd/3rd.  The team progresses next year.  Then they have 3+ 1st round picks in 2024 (maybe 2025 as well?).

Trading down has always been my draft philosophy.  Unless Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck are available, get out.

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4 hours ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

Correct. Ballard has always been a big traits guy so waiting on Levis/Richardson makes a lot of sense if he's at the wheel and not Irsay/Steichen.

I could see Steichen being interested in coaching Levis or Richardson considering his work with Herbert / Hurts.

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3 hours ago, scar988 said:

And if they won't trade 2 1sts for Lamar Jackson, it's pretty obvious they aren't trading up for a QB. 

One option requires you give out the largest guaranteed deal in NFL history, the other give you a QB on a team friendly deal for 4-5 years. I don't see the Falcons looking to trade up for a QB though.

You can make that same argument for the Colts, Panthers, Raiders, etc. None of them are interested in signing Lamar but they've all been rumored as teams looking to potentially move up for a QB.

Edited by NYRaider
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