2023 NFL offseason

[John232]

4 minutes ago, jonnguy2015 said:

 

I might actually go shanny and Montana here. 

[Ftn49]

11 hours ago, John232 said:

I might actually go shanny and Montana here. 

Is the rest of the team the years of those QBs? If thats the case then B (94) for me without a doubt. Just coach and QB I'd agree with you John.

[Forge]

This is lining up well so far. Hopefully no set backs. I may sit him week one against a tough Pitt defense, but after that it's a soft landing for a few weeks 

[Forge]

Live look at the 49ers trading up and making that pick: 

[John232]

It’s getting called out by a lot of people now. 49ers have made so many bad calls and terrible process..but they just keep winning and they’re seemingly the only team surviving these awful decisions at QB. Maybe purdy is the truth but it’s bordered on disaster since the start of his tenure 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, John232 said:

It’s getting called out by a lot of people now. 49ers have made so many bad calls and terrible process..but they just keep winning and they’re seemingly the only team surviving these awful decisions at QB. Maybe purdy is the truth but it’s bordered on disaster since the start of his tenure 

I don't know that I've ever seen such huge swings and misses by a regime that has been as successful as this one. Obviously they've balanced it out with some big hits, but kind of crazy  

 

[NinerNation21]

44 minutes ago, Forge said:

I don't know that I've ever seen such huge swings and misses by a regime that has been as successful as this one. Obviously they've balanced it out with some big hits, but kind of crazy  

 

A loaded roster, good scheme, and a very competent coaching staff helps. 

[John232]

47 minutes ago, Forge said:

I don't know that I've ever seen such huge swings and misses by a regime that has been as successful as this one. Obviously they've balanced it out with some big hits, but kind of crazy  

 

Most teams coming to mind survived purely on elite QB play. Green Bay and the Patriots had some extremely questionable drafts over the years but still “got theirs” albeit both are top 10 QBs ever. 
 

the best comp might be the early/mid 2000’s Ravens? Flacco was probably better than Jimmy G, certainly healthier. Had some insane drafts like us, but some years of hard whiffing outside of one or two guys at best. 

[JIllg]

6 minutes ago, John232 said:

Most teams coming to mind survived purely on elite QB play. Green Bay and the Patriots had some extremely questionable drafts over the years but still “got theirs” albeit both are top 10 QBs ever. 
 

the best comp might be the early/mid 2000’s Ravens? Flacco was probably better than Jimmy G, certainly healthier. Had some insane drafts like us, but some years of hard whiffing outside of one or two guys at best. 

Also had some delicious Kyle Boller for a bit right after the super bowl. QB failures cost that core quite a bit. 

[Justone2]

1 hour ago, NinerNation21 said:

A loaded roster, good scheme, and a very competent coaching staff helps. 

The thing is more that that loaded roster is build while basically missing on most of the high picks and a lot of overpaying in FA. The development and late round scouting has been actually great and is what keeps us afloat. In most drafts if you reorder them they are actually pretty good but when you look at say the first 3/5 picks in each there is plenty of teams that have better drafts.

[49erurtaza]

2 hours ago, Justone2 said:

The thing is more that that loaded roster is build while basically missing on most of the high picks and a lot of overpaying in FA. The development and late round scouting has been actually great and is what keeps us afloat. In most drafts if you reorder them they are actually pretty good but when you look at say the first 3/5 picks in each there is plenty of teams that have better drafts.

Early picks coaches are extremely involved in. They are drafting by need and will reach rounds for there guy. 4-7 it's all best avail pick and analytics are extremely involved. They know how to quantify what the coaches want into data and draft those guys ala GTFO new metric they came up with for Kocurek. I just wish they would use the same approach from round 1 and go straight BPA.

[NinerNation21]

19 hours ago, Justone2 said:

The thing is more that that loaded roster is build while basically missing on most of the high picks and a lot of overpaying in FA. The development and late round scouting has been actually great and is what keeps us afloat. In most drafts if you reorder them they are actually pretty good but when you look at say the first 3/5 picks in each there is plenty of teams that have better drafts.

If you look at their entire body of work in the draft since 2017, the 49ers have hit way more than missed compared to other teams. 

They've drafted more pro-bowlers and all-pros than just about any other team in that span. Plus, they know how to identify talent in the late rounds and UDFA market and cultivate that talent into quality players. This keeps the bottom of the roster cheap, which allows them to spend big in FA. It all works together. 

This is what a well-oiled machine looks like. 

Edited June 22, 2023 by NinerNation21

[Justone2]

16 hours ago, 49erurtaza said:

Early picks coaches are extremely involved in. They are drafting by need and will reach rounds for there guy. 4-7 it's all best avail pick and analytics are extremely involved. They know how to quantify what the coaches want into data and draft those guys ala GTFO new metric they came up with for Kocurek. I just wish they would use the same approach from round 1 and go straight BPA.

I don't really agree straight BPA is the best way to go. I think of it more as BPA in a position of need. Like drafting purely BPA just doesn't work but drafting for need like we have done also is a bad strategy. What i do agree with is that there seems to be a divide with how we approach early picks and how we do later ones which is something that should be different.

2 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

If you look at their entire body of work in the draft since 2017, the 49ers have hit way more than missed compared to other teams. 

They've drafted more pro-bowlers and all-pros than just about any other team in that span. Plus, they know how to identify talent in the late rounds and UDFA market and cultivate that talent into quality players. This keeps the bottom of the roster cheap, which allows them to spend big in FA. It all works together. 

This is what a well-oiled machine looks like. 

Yeah which is why i said if you reorder most draft they are actually pretty good. We usually have a later round guy turning into a pro bowler but most of our early picks just haven't been that great. Same goes for FA signings. If you just look at the big moves we have made especially the first few years of this regime there is no reason to believe this team would be as deep as it is now. Like for all failures we have found something that works but i feel if you look at how often we have hit on later round picks the succes rate early on should be higher.

[NinerNation21]

32 minutes ago, Justone2 said:

I don't really agree straight BPA is the best way to go. I think of it more as BPA in a position of need. Like drafting purely BPA just doesn't work but drafting for need like we have done also is a bad strategy. What i do agree with is that there seems to be a divide with how we approach early picks and how we do later ones which is something that should be different.

Yeah which is why i said if you reorder most draft they are actually pretty good. We usually have a later round guy turning into a pro bowler but most of our early picks just haven't been that great. Same goes for FA signings. If you just look at the big moves we have made especially the first few years of this regime there is no reason to believe this team would be as deep as it is now. Like for all failures we have found something that works but i feel if you look at how often we have hit on later round picks the succes rate early on should be higher.

Yeah, the first year or so were pretty wonky in terms of strategy and acquisitions. They started hitting their stride pretty quickly, though. There were definitely some boneheaded draft picks and bad contracts handed out that I wish we could have back. 

[JIllg]

28 minutes ago, Justone2 said:

I don't really agree straight BPA is the best way to go. I think of it more as BPA in a position of need. Like drafting purely BPA just doesn't work but drafting for need like we have done also is a bad strategy. What i do agree with is that there seems to be a divide with how we approach early picks and how we do later ones which is something that should be different.

Yeah which is why i said if you reorder most draft they are actually pretty good. We usually have a later round guy turning into a pro bowler but most of our early picks just haven't been that great. Same goes for FA signings. If you just look at the big moves we have made especially the first few years of this regime there is no reason to believe this team would be as deep as it is now. Like for all failures we have found something that works but i feel if you look at how often we have hit on later round picks the succes rate early on should be higher.

I should be concerned about how repeatable this late round success is - the example of the Legion of Boom Seahawks is instructive; they were mediocre to bad in the early rounds but found what were at the time market inefficiencies in personnel evaluation in later rounds until other folks caught on to the traits that they were looking for (length on defense, mostly) and also ran the Seahawks system.  But with our regime - it seems that the character traits and underlying "quiet" physical skills not well measured by combine data or not correctly coveted based on specific combine measurements are still providing us with some major later round windfalls. I'd bet money on Ji'Ayir Brown coming good for that reason. Brayden Willis, too. And that's in addition to your Purdys and Hufungas and Greenlaws and on and on down the line. Hopefully no one continues to catch on to us, lol.