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TE Outlook 2018


MacReady

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Martellus Bennett

Career - Quitter.

Age and condition - Quitter that quits.

Contract - New England's problem.

Projection - Will quit at the first sign of adversity, projected to be a quitter.

Lance Kendricks

Career - 214 receptions, 2,200 yards, 18 touchdowns

Season - 10 receptions, 140 yards, 1 touchdown

Age and Condition - 29, will be 30 by next month. 

Contract - 2.25 million salary next year.  Potential out with a dead cap of 600,000. 

Projection - Based on his relationship with Rodgers (they workout together in the offseason), I think Kendricks will stay with us next year.  He's got some speed and athleticism, but he's not a solution, and he's not even a stop gap as a starting option.  He's cheap enough to keep, but not good enough to rely on to be a frequent starter. 

Richard Rodgers

Career - 115 catches, 1,100 yards, 12 touchdowns

Season - 7 catches, 79 yards

Age and Condition - 25, and his best ability has been his availability.  He hasn't missed a game in his career.

Contract - His contract is up at the end of this year.  He will be an unrestricted free agent.

Projection - Rodgers is a great teammate and will be remembered for a long time for his role in the Hail Mary, but he seems to be a liability in the passing game and, as a blocker, he doesn't seem to be all that great.  He's been very productive all things considered, but that's been due more to a lack of other options. 

 

The reason I made this thread is because it's abundantly clear how important a tight end is to this offense, but also to Aaron Rodgers.  Last year, Aaron had 31 touchdowns and 2 interceptions when Jared Cook played.  When Cook didn't play, Aaron had 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.  Rodgers relies heavily on the tight end, and this offense relies heavily on the tight end.  It is bordering on crucial levels that we get a receiving threat at tight end. 

In Finley's best year, Rodgers averaged 9.2 yards per attempt.  Read that again.  Then again.  For comparison, Brady's best average per attempt was 8.6 yards. 

The problem with this desperate need at tight end is the lack of availability of great receiving options at tight end.  We can't go stop gap anymore.  The next solution has to be a 10 year solution.  Graham is 31.  The only legitimate tight end option is Tyler Eiffert.  Eiffert would be an outstanding signing, but I'm not sure it's realistic.  Especially considering Bennett's failure.

First round tight ends are a risk.  I'm not getting into that debate in this thread hopefully because hopefully nobody else thinks that the year we will have our best draft pick since Raji, we shouldn't use it on tight end considering the state of our pass rush.  The second round, however, has been providing an increasing amount of great value at tight end, and the second round I think is when we need to invest in the skill positions again for the first time in a long time.

Our running back group is strong. 
Our receivers are strong if Adams re-signs.
Offensive line is strong other than IOL, but there's a lot of potential to fill Jahri's spot already on our roster, and that's if he doesn't come back.
We've got a lot invested at CB already.  I think we will be fine there.
Safety and DL are also fine for the foreseeable future. 

The only other position that should be targeted I think is pass rush, but you're more likely to find a pass rusher in round one and a tight end in two than vice versa. 

An additional problem is that first year tight ends are one of THE slowest positions to transition to the NFL.  I'm not making this up and it can't be denied. 

Since 1920, 7 rookie tight ends have had more than 50 catches.  One has had 1,000 yards (Ditka).  Two have had 10 touchdowns or more (Gronkowski, Ditka). 

Unless you get yourself an all-time great, Hall of Fame tight end, it's tough to get much out of them in their first year.

That's why my preferred solution is:

Let's go all in on Tyler Eiffert, then double down with a 3rd or 4th round pick at tight end. 

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29 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

 Our running back group is strong. 
Our receivers are strong if Adams re-signs.
Offensive line is strong other than IOL, but there's a lot of potential to fill Jahri's spot already on our roster, and that's if he doesn't come back.
We've got a lot invested at CB already.  I think we will be fine there.
Safety and DL are also fine for the foreseeable future.

WR is not strong at all. Age andnd contracts make this position a worry.

 

CB, House is on a 1 year deal and Randall is still up and down. I think he will get it together, but we could still use help here.

 

Pass rusher is an obvious need.

 

Yes TE needs help but it's not like it's the only significant hole.

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18 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Eifert is an injury waiting to happen.  He would have to come really cheap to consider him as a 2018 option.  

With so many 1 year FA deals out there now, guys like Eifert should be targets instead of avoided.

Used to be you had to give a guy at least 3 years on a deal, then I'd avoid, but I'd throw 1/5 at Eifert, don't see why he'd want to stay with Dalton.

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1 hour ago, HorizontoZenith said:

 

That's why my preferred solution is:

Let's go all in on Tyler Eiffert, then double down with a 3rd or 4th round pick at tight end. 

Good player when healthy ... only problem is the guy is never healthy.  Given his track record with injuries .. given the Packers track record with injuries .. it would be a bust of a signing.

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1 hour ago, spilltray said:

WR is not strong at all. Age andnd contracts make this position a worry.

 

CB, House is on a 1 year deal and Randall is still up and down. I think he will get it together, but we could still use help here.

 

Pass rusher is an obvious need.

 

Yes TE needs help but it's not like it's the only significant hole.

I agree with the WR part. Even with re-signing Davante I think it's important we bring in some new blood to develop. Based on the chemistry Jordy has with AR, I think he will be productive, but not the threat he once was. Cobb is below average; Allison I'd like to give some more reps to see what we have. Outside of pass rusher, I would like a WR/TE to be addressed very early as well.

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2 minutes ago, pollino14 said:

I agree with the WR part. Even with re-signing Davante I think it's important we bring in some new blood to develop. Based on the chemistry Jordy has with AR, I think he will be productive, but not the threat he once was. Cobb is below average; Allison I'd like to give some more reps to see what we have. Outside of pass rusher, I would like a WR/TE to be addressed very early as well.

Fortunately Ted is pretty adept at finding good productive receivers in the 2nd round.  :)

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5 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Good player when healthy ... only problem is the guy is never healthy.  Given his track record with injuries .. given the Packers track record with injuries .. it would be a bust of a signing.

Yeah, but since Packers are always injured, if an always injured player signed here, they'd never be injured again.

But yeah, I'm aware of the injury concerns.  I just think that him plus a 3rd-4th round TE with athletic ability is the best route to take.  I'd like to go pass rush/DB this year.

If I had it my way, it would be EDGE, CB, WR, TE. 

@spilltray, I do think receiver is fine.  Once Cobb was healthy and Cook was healthy, Cobb had 18 receptions for 260 yards and 3 touchdowns in the playoffs.  Nelson is better when we have a TE threat, Adams is better when we have a TE threat.  Still, you're right, it's not a STRENGTH necessarily, but it's not a glaring weakness, and TE makes that position better, too.  Still, like I said, I'd like to go WR in 3.  TE in 4.  Or vice versa. 

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6 minutes ago, LargeFarva said:

Jason Witten is a potential cut candidate. He would be a good 1-2 year stop-gap.

Gosh I just cannot see the Cowboys cutting Jason Witten. Then I see his deal goes until after 2021, my gosh.

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I think WR/TE is a very related issue.  We can cover for lackluster TEs (the steelers have no TE threat) if you have multiple receiving options.  Right now we have Adams as a difference maker and Jordy as a reliable guy, and Cobb as a guy.  If you improve that group, I'm ok to stick with RRod, Kendricks, and a draft pick.

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Just now, LargeFarva said:

Jason Witten is a potential cut candidate. He would be a good 1-2 year stop-gap.

What?  Witten isn't really good at anything, he's just there.  I've never really understood why people think he's an all-time great or this legend.  He's got longevity and health and that's about all he's got. 

You're talking about a tight end that hasn't missed a single game since his rookie year, and only missed only one game his rookie year.  Iron Man of the tight end position.  But look at it another way:

That's 234 games.  He has 66 touchdowns.  He hasn't had a double digit touchdown season once in his career.  He hasn't averaged 10 yards a catch in three years.  For comparison, our own Richard Rodgers has averaged more yards per catch over the past three years than Witten has. 

We should be done with stop gaps over 28 years old at the tight end position.  We certainly shouldn't start signing stop gaps that will be 36 at the start of next season. 

The more Rodgers trusts a tight end, the better Rodgers is.  We gotta get the tight end for his final 8 years.  Only tight end I'd even consider other than Eiffert would be Sefarian-Jenkins, but I doubt he's a Thompson person. 

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Just now, skibrett15 said:

I think WR/TE is a very related issue.  We can cover for lackluster TEs (the steelers have no TE threat) if you have multiple receiving options.  Right now we have Adams as a difference maker and Jordy as a reliable guy, and Cobb as a guy.  If you improve that group, I'm ok to stick with RRod, Kendricks, and a draft pick.

See, I just see it in a completely different way.  We already have those three guys, so it makes more sense to me to bring in a tight end that makes those three better than bring in another receiver to make our tight ends acceptable. 

Can't deny how much a tight end opens things up for our offense.  If you want the evidence, look at Jared's healthy games and the games he missed just last year.  Our offense was night and day. 

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