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Pre- Free Agency Mock Offseason | Partial Depth Chart


taylor made

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Ok, gonna start with some controversy with cuts. Last year I called the Matthew Ioannidis cap casualty when most didn't believe it.

 

CAP SPACE: 18 Million

CUTS: 

TE Logan Thomas: Saves 5 Million. I think the writing is on the wall for Logan. He's turning 32 next year and looked awful last year. 

WR Curtis Samuel: Saves 5.8 Million. This will raise some eyebrows but let me explain. I was all for bringing Curtis in 2 years ago but since then we have only added 2 WRs with similar profiles in Jahan Dotson and Dyami Brown. Now with Samuel Howell starting, I believe it's time for Dyami Brown to get more playing time. I find it hard to believe that Samuel will be resigned next year anyways. Also since we lost Scott Turner, I doubt we see as many running plays from Curtis Samuel. 

JD Mckissic: Saves 1 million: I wanted JD gone last year as I thought age was gonna catch up to him and don't think he's back this year either. 

UPDATED CAP SPACE: 29.8 Million

FREE AGENCY: 

CB Ronald Darby: 2 years, 16 million dollars. (5 million 2023 cap hit) - We lost Darby 2 years ago to free agency and the defense never performed like it did when he was here. If healthy, he can be a legit starting CB for this team. He wasn't healthy the last two years so this is a gamble but one I think we have to take. 

QB Drew Lock: 2 years, 8 million (2.5 milion 2023 cap hit): I wouldn't mind Taylor Heinicke back but something went down last year I have a feeling at the end of the year for Rivera not to play him. Plus according to Sportrac, Heinicke could get expensive. I think we need to find a cheap QB who has the potential to start if Sam Howell goes down. Geno is clearly the guy in Seattle now so I think Drew Lock might want to find somewhere we could eventually start. 

RESIGN: 

LB Cole Holcolmb: 3 years, 21 Million (4.5 million 2023 cap hit) - I'm not sure the numbers on Cole, but since he was injured he might come at a decent rate. 

SS Kamren Curl: 4 years, 44 million (8 million 2023 cap hit) 

I think we need to sign both our homegrown guys. Last year I wanted to resign DaRon Payne to a long term deal and we got screwed. Don't make the same mistake with Curl who could potentially blow up and get really expensive. We know Curl is at least serviceable. 

REMAINING CAP SPACE: 9.8 Million

FIRST ROUND: 16th overall:  RB Bijan Robinson, Texas

Q7qWoHL-_400x400.jpg

Let's not overthink the first round draft pick too much. We are gonna be starring at what most consider the best player in the draft at pick #16. I can already here the groans but the fact is we didn't have a RB that went over 4.0 ypc last year and I'm not sure Antonio Gibson will be on the team next year. Our offense was the issue last year (and has been for a long time) and adding someone with Bijan will take the pressure off Sam Howell. Brian Robinson was okay, maybe a little overrated last year but Bijan has the potential to be a superstar here.  I would consider some offensive line prospects over Bijan but their stock is gonna have to fall some (Paris Johnson & Skoronski)

SECOND ROUND: 47th overall: IOL Steve Avila, TCU

USATSI_19711377-e1676217975299.jpg?w=100

There's a lot of good offensive line prospects in the second round this year but I like Steve because he can play both guard and center in case Roullier goes down again. I think we have to go offensive line with one of our first or second picks. 

THIRD ROUND COM: 97th overall: TE Tucker Kraft, South Dakota St. 

40D052FB-A3B9-4189-BF79-29D4C010F2D5.jpe

This might be one of my more unrealistic picks because I'm not sure Tucker Kraft falls this far after his combine but the guy looks electric and you'll know Bienemy will want a top TE. 

FOURTH ROUND: 118th overall: QB Jaren Hall, BYU

I mentioned QB Tanner McKee when we hired his OC earlier and I wouldn't rule him out but he's not really mobile at all. I think this year would be the best time to draft a young QB with EB here 

Not gonna do the later round because I haven't scouted that far. 

DEPTH CHART (THIS WONT BE SUPER ACCURATE)


QB: Sam Howell/Drew Lock/Jaren Hall

RB: Bijan Robinson/Brian Robinson/Antonio Gibson

WR: Terry Mclaurin/Jahan Dotson/Dyami Brown/Marcus Kemp/Cam Sims/whoever

TE: John Bates/Tucker Kraft/Cole Turner

OL: Leno/Norwell/Roullier/Steve Avila/Samuel Cosmi

 

Defense: Pretty much same as last year but with Ronald Darby

 

I will most likely do a final mock draft after Free Agency.

 

Edited by taylor made
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First off, good job and effort putting this together. I agree with your cuts. Even Samuel. 

Not big on either FA signing, but we're not going to get any big names most likely so I understand what you did. 

As far as your draft.... yeah I'm groaning about Bijan. We're just not there yet to be able to do it. Avila is fine. I would be okay with Kroft, but Kincaid and Washington better be gone. 

I am way out on Hall. Not a fan of him at all. 

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I’d be surprised if the run game suddenly took off if all they did was draft Bijan Robinson and Steve Avila.

I think Bijan is great, but I don’t think he’s on the young Adrian Peterson “one man team” level. The OL was a problem last season, and if adding Avila is the only move they make to upgrade that unit, I don’t see much changing. He’s strong as hell, but he’s not a great run blocker at this point. And more importantly, we’d still be counting on Norwell, Roullier/Larsen, and Cosmi at RT. That’s awfully close to the same group we had last year, and that was rather unsuccessful as a whole.

If we’re angling to be a run-dominant team, let’s just go all-in on that. To me, taking Bijan and sticking him behind a mediocre at best OL is sort of like investing in a QB and not giving him any weapons. Give the man a chance to succeed. I think that would require at least one more substantial investment on the OL. The key to really good OL play seems to be much more about having 5 solid/good players — in that plan, even if Roullier came back full speed (not overwhelmingly likely) and Avila was a solid/good plug-n-play starter (also no guarantee), you’re still looking at some pretty serious question marks at LG and RT. I’d have to see them upgrade at least one of those spots in FA meaningfully before I could get on board with taking Bijan.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/12/2023 at 4:25 PM, e16bball said:

I’d be surprised if the run game suddenly took off if all they did was draft Bijan Robinson and Steve Avila.

I think Bijan is great, but I don’t think he’s on the young Adrian Peterson “one man team” level. The OL was a problem last season, and if adding Avila is the only move they make to upgrade that unit, I don’t see much changing. He’s strong as hell, but he’s not a great run blocker at this point. And more importantly, we’d still be counting on Norwell, Roullier/Larsen, and Cosmi at RT. That’s awfully close to the same group we had last year, and that was rather unsuccessful as a whole.

If we’re angling to be a run-dominant team, let’s just go all-in on that. To me, taking Bijan and sticking him behind a mediocre at best OL is sort of like investing in a QB and not giving him any weapons. Give the man a chance to succeed. I think that would require at least one more substantial investment on the OL. The key to really good OL play seems to be much more about having 5 solid/good players — in that plan, even if Roullier came back full speed (not overwhelmingly likely) and Avila was a solid/good plug-n-play starter (also no guarantee), you’re still looking at some pretty serious question marks at LG and RT. I’d have to see them upgrade at least one of those spots in FA meaningfully before I could get on board with taking Bijan.

Someone on Twitter pointed out that Norwell while not great last year, he was above average. I forget exactly what it was but he had advanced statistics to back it up. It was like a month ago bc I was stating they should cut Norwell but I didn't think Ron would ever do it and this guy countered that Norwell wasn't as bad as people think & he should be retained & he proved it with some advanced stats.

Now that they've signed Wylie, I think that's an upgrade at RT. They haven’t cut Roullier, maybe they will if they draft a C in R2 like Schmitz (MN), Steve Avila (TCU) or Luke Wypler but they haven’t cut Roullier yet so many he won’t be a cap casualty?

I think they still need to add another OG for competition, as we've discussed in the draft thread, it could be Torrence but they could take more of an impact player there whether it's a TE like Mayer or a CB.

Even though I don't like it, I am seeing the writing on the wall for Logan. While I do think he played decent in Nov & Dec and was/is trending in the right direction, it wouldn't shock me if they drafted Mayer if available at 16 & then cut Logan after the draft. 

I do not see them drafting Bijan Robinson. I just don’t & it’s really not a good investment to take a RB in round 1 bc usually they have the shortest careers & are about done by 30. Also, if Bieniemy is going to run his I like Andy Reid’s & I have no reason to believe he won't then that means we won't be drafting a 1st round RB. 

It’s more likely that Bieniemy is going to want a TE who has elite potential bc he worked with Travis Kelce in KC like Mayer so, I can see Bienemy wanting “Baby Gronk” so, I can see Bieniemy & Rivera projecting him to be like Travis Kelce in our offense.

I agree that they should re-sign/extend Curl, that’s a no-brainer. It seems to me that Chase & Sweat are playing for one DE contract extension, maybe they both have great seasons this year competing for that huge contract extension? I guess we’ll see. The loser of that competition should be traded next March whether it's Sweat after he's franchised or if that's Chase if Sweat has the better/a great year then, so be it, I’d trade Chase next off-season then. My guess is that Sweat will be tagged & traded as Chase still has the higher ceiling & Chase is 3 years younger.

So, here’s what I think they do in the draft, not necessarily what I want them to do in R1 but, what they’ll do & what our roster looks like after the draft:

2023 Commanders Draft:

R1: Michael Mayer, TE, ND

R2: Trenton Simpson, OLB, Clemson

R3: Jarrett Patterson, C/G, ND

R4: Tre’vius Hodges- Tomlinson, Slot CB TCU

R5: Kenny McIntosh, RB, Georgia

R6: Jalen Moreno Cooper, Slot WR, Fresno St.

R6: Connor Galvin, OT, Baylor

R7: Jake Haener, QB, Fresno St


2023 Commanders Roster:

QB: Howell, Brissett, Haener (R7)

RB: Gibson, B. Robinson, Kenny McIntosh (R5), Jarrett Patterson

LT: Leno, Lucas

LG: Norwell, Jarrett Patterson (R3)

C : Roullier, Larsen

RG: Cosmi, Saahdiq Charles 

RT: Wylie, Galvin (R6)

TE: Mayer (R1), Bates, Cole Turner, Armani Rogers

WR: McLaurin, D. Brown

WR: Dotson, Kemp

Slot: Samuel, Jalen Moreno-Cooper (R6)

Total = (27)

 

RDE: Sweat, Obada, Toohill

RDT: Allen, Mathis

NT: Payne, Ridgeway

LDE: C. Young, JSW

WLB: Trenton Simpson (R2), Khaleke Hudson

MLB: Barton, Mayo

SLB: J. Davis

RCB: Juice, Christian Holmes

LCB: Fuller, Cameron Dantzler

Slot: Danny Johnson, Hodges-Tomlinson (R4)

SS: Curl, Reaves

FS: Forrest, Butler

Total = 24

 

K: Joey Slye

P: Tress Way

KR: Kenny McIntosh

PR: Jalen Moreno-Cooper (R6)

Edited by turtle28
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Drafting Bijan Robinson in the first would be a horrible decision IMO. I'm sure he will be a decent enough player, but RB's have the lowest career longevity due to the toll it takes on their bodies. I would much rather a player that will be here for 6-10 years. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson make a solid backfield. We need a scatback that can return kicks (a Darren Sproles type). Love the Avila pick, but I don't expect him to be available by our second round pick. Same with Kroft.

That being said, you addressed QB, OL, TE and RB with the first 4 picks and I won't complain about that. Wish we had a MLB sprinkled in there, but overall pretty solid.

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