Sandy's 2023 Mock Offseason V 2.0

[Sandy]

Hello all, and welcome back to my second mock off-season this year.  The theme here is current events, as most of our pushable contracts have been pushed to future years already, and Rodgers is very likely to be traded to the Jets as of this writing (although I still think the Raiders and the 7th pick are in play).

This is being pushed before free agency.

For reference, net cap hit is the cap his when accounting for the player knocked off the top 51 highest cap hits.

Sandy's first 2023 mock offseason - in case anyone wants to review the changes.  I have few holdover selections from last time.

 

Rodgers Trade:

GB sends: Aaron Rodgers, Yosh Nijman (on second round RFA tender), and 2023 5th (149) to NYJ.

NYJ sends: 2023 1st (13) and 2nd (43) picks.

Fine Print: If QB A. Rodgers is on the retired list for the entire 2024 season, GB sends their 2025 2nd round pick to NYJ.

Rational: The Packers want 2023 picks to build a stronger offense around Love in order to help him succeed in his first season.  In doing so, they must return a fifth round draft pick and Nijman, who helps fill one of NYJ's biggest needs.  The Jets get insurance against giving up two picks for one season of football with the fine print.

 

Cap Space after trade: $14.60m

 

Re-signings:

Keisean Nixon, KR/CB - 2 year, $9m. $3.5m signing bonus. $1.5m base salary/w.o. bonus. 3 void years. Gross cap hit: $2.20m. Net cap hit: $1.45m.

While he did post himself giving the peace sign to Packers fans, I think he'll be surprised when GB is offering the highest contract in FA.

 

Mason Crosby, K - 2 year, $8m. $2.5m SB. $1.5m BS/WOB. 3 void years. Gross cap hit: $2m. Net cap hit: $1.25m.

There are already rumors of his imminent re-signing.  If not, FAs like Randy Bullock could come in even less expensive than this.

 

Rudy Ford, S/ST - 1 year, $2.4m. $1m SB. $1.4m BS/WOB.  4 void years. Gross cap hit: $1.6m. Net cap hit: $850k.

Seems like a no-brainer re-signing as a potential starting safety next season and a core special teamer.

 

All other UFAs and RFAs are allowed to walk. Some, like Dallin Leavitt, may sign in training camp, but will not be calculated here.

Cap Space after re-signings: $11.05m

 

Free Agents: 

Jakobi Myers, WR - 3 year, $48m. $16m SB. $1.5m BS/WOB. 2 void years. Gross cap hit: $4.7m. Net cap hit: $3.95m.

Right now we have three second-year outside receivers as the top three wideouts on our depth chart.  Myers gives us a sure-handed route-running specialist who has excelled both in the slot and on the outside.  He becomes an essential safety net for Love.  Myers has been projected to see around $15m annually, so this contract paying $30m in the first two years is right in line with that. This 6'2, 201 lb receiver will be 27 this season, also excels at blocking and is a perfect fit for MLFs scheme.

 

Juan Thornhill, S - 2 year, $12m. $5m SB. $1.5 BS/WOB. 3 void years. Gross cap hit: $2.5m. Net cap hit: $1.75m.

Thornhill is flying under the radar among free agent safeties.  The Packers should find a bargain player who fits our scheme after the first wave of free agency, and Thornhill has a chance to be that player.  Multi-year starter for the reigning World Champs, he's uber athletic and full of potential. The 27 year old should start over Ford of Savage.

 

Austin Hooper, TE - 2 year, $11m. $5m SB. $1.5 BS/WOB. 3 void years. Gross cap hit: $2.5m. Net cap hit: $1.75m.

Also a deep FA class of TEs, someone like Hooper or Foster Moreau will slide under the radar and be available for a fair price.  Hooper is adapt at both blocking and receiving, and immediately profiles as our new TE1. While it feels like he's been around forever, he's still just 28 years old, which is a TEs prime.

 

Gardner Minshew III, QB - 2 year, $9m. $3.5m SB. $1.5 BS/WOB. 3 void years. Gross cap hit: $2.2m. Net cap hit: $1.45m.

Minshew likely falls in the second tier of FA QBs with upside who want the best chance to earn starts as possible.  While most of the juiciest backup jobs will have been taken by the likes of Carson Wentz and Taylor Heineke, Minshew can settle for backing up a first-year starter, which, if Love bombs, can yield a few late season starts.  With Hurts entrenched in PHI, it's time for this Eagle to look for a new nest.

Cap Space after free agents: $2.15m

 

Restructures:

With all these signings we don't have enough cap space for our draft or in-season piggy bank.  While we're likely waiting on a Rashan Gary extension until after his ACL has healed, and can give a modest extension to Savage to clear cap space, we do have two small restructures we can apply to a pair of our core defenders.

De'Vondre Campbell, LB - Restructure roster bonus into signing bonus. Maximize void years. Savings: 2.64m.

Rasul Douglas, CB - Restructure roster bonus into signing bonus.  Maximize void years. Savings: $1.96m.

 

Cap Space after restructures: $6.75m

While this cap space does still seem a little sparse to me, I can live with it for now knowing I have a couple extensions I can offer from up my sleeves to add a little more if need be.

 

NFL Draft: 

 

1. Carolina: Anthony Richardson, QB - With their most sustained franchise success coming from another 10 RAS QB, they make it clear that this is who they were trading for.

2. Houston: Bryce Young, QB

3. Arizona: Will Anderson Jr, ED

4. Indianapolis: CJ Stroud, QB

5. Seattle: Will Levis, QB - An early surprise, Seattle leaves the other QB needy teams high and dry.  Maybe they should have traded for Rodgers.

6. Detroit: Christian Gonzalez, CB

7. Las Vegas: Jalen Carter, DL - despite a need for o-line, the value of the player is too much to pass up.

8. Atlanta: Devon Witherspoon, CB

9. Chicago: Tyree Wilson, ED - despite a need for o-line, the value of the player is too much to pass up.

 

TRADE: GB sends picks 13 and 78 to PHI for pick 10.

10. Paris Johnson Jr, OT; RAS undetermined - This dude is a monster.  36 inch arms! We move ahead of Tennessee thinking there was no way this guy is available here, but with the way the draft board went out, we get a player who has started at both RG and LT successfully in college. Day 1 he should compete for starting RT or RG and is the favorite to take over the starting LT position from Bakh in a year. Philly trades down hoping to get more value for the CB they want to take.

 

11. Tennessee: Broderick Jones, OT 

12. Houston: Peter Skoronski, OL - Adding protection for Bryce Young is essential, and he has high end guard potential.

13. Philadelphia: Joey Porter Jr, CB

14. New England: Zay Flowers, WR

TRADE: PIT sends picks 17 and 80 to GB for pick 15 and 2024 5th.

15. Pittsburgh: Keely Ringo, CB - PIT is determined to get the last CB with a first round grade and they were certain Washington would take him.

TRADE: 16. Seattle: Lukas Van Ness, ED - Washington indeed wanted a CB, and Seattle knows LVN is GB's kind of edge, so they slide past us to take him.

 

17. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR; 9.39 RAS - Now I feel secure about the WR room surrounding our first-year starting QB. Smith is large for an inside receiver, with insane movement skills as seen on his 3-cone drill and 20-yard shuttle.  Look at his play and you'll see a silky smooth pass catcher.  With Watson and Doubs on the outside, JSN in the slot and Myers playing everywhere, we are setting Love up for success.

 

Rd. 2

43. Isaiah Foskey, ED; 9.54 RAS - This guy is flying so far below the radar that he's on the ground.  Despite tearing up the combine at 6'5, 265 lbs an having some of the most consistent college play from an early edge rusher, he's still sliding in mock drafts as some of the combine darlings have moved past him.  Fine by me.  I see a very bright future for whatever defense lands this kid.

45. Luke Musgrave, TE; 9.95 RAS - Musgrave will be a staple in my mocks.  There is no player I've ever been more sure will be a perennial Pro Bowler and first ballot Hall of Famer.  Why is everyone not talking about him??

 

Rd. 3

80. Zacch Pickins, DL; 9.54 RAS - There are a few highly-athletic defensive linemen who are expected to be drafted sometime on day 2.  Pickins is one of my favorites of these, and should be available later than some players like Gervon Dexter or Keeanu Benton.  He would immediately slide into a rotation of what should be a very solid DL.

 

Rd. 4

116. Andrei Iosivas, WR; 9.92 RAS - I'm excited about this guy.  His NFL pro comparison? Christian Watson.  Made from the same mold, he can take his raw abilities to the bench for a year before competing for playing time with Samori Toure and Bo Melton in 2024-5. Watch him move on tape.

 

Rd. 5

170 (comp). Jakorian Bennet, CB; 9.58 RAS - Despite safety being the bigger need on paper, I like the idea of adding an athletic CB like Bennet, who currently has the 10th highest RAS at his position this draft.  It's an exceptionally strong CB draft IMO, and with rumors of Sul Douglas moving to S this season, Bennet could be seeing more playing time early than expected.

 

Rd. 7

232. Tyler Bagent, QB; 9.15 RAS

235. Earl Bostick Jr, OT; 9.58 RAS

242: Davis Allen, TE; 8.77 RAS

256 (comp): Evan Hull, RB; 9.18 RAS

Four athletic lottery tickets who will all have a shot to make the roster.  

 

Hope you enjoyed the mock.  I may edit to add a final roster later on.

[Brit Pack]

Very noice

[vegas492]

Hmm.  Move to Love at QB.  Get a franchise type tackle.  And a WR.  Sounds like something GB will do.  They gotta put as much around him as they can.

Grab an EDGE in the second, add a TE later...me likey.

 

But, ultimately this mock gets an F from me.  While it seems like I like the draft, you picked in the third round.  Should have traded the pick to move up in the second or back into the fourth.  

[15412]

Well thought out overall.  I like more defense though.  I don't like Uncle Rico, I like Ettling over him.

Richardson might be the 3rd QB taken, not first.  I'd take him as the 4th QB at some point maybe

Edited March 13, 2023 by 15412

[ThatJerkDave]

6 hours ago, Sandy said:

Free Agents: 

Jakobi Myers, WR - 3 year, $48m. $16m SB. $1.5m BS/WOB. 2 void years. Gross cap hit: $4.7m. Net cap hit: $3.95m.

Right now we have three second-year outside receivers as the top three wideouts on our depth chart.  Myers gives us a sure-handed route-running specialist who has excelled both in the slot and on the outside.  He becomes an essential safety net for Love.  Myers has been projected to see around $15m annually, so this contract paying $30m in the first two years is right in line with that. This 6'2, 201 lb receiver will be 27 this season, also excels at blocking and is a perfect fit for MLFs scheme.

TRADE: GB sends picks 13 and 78 to PHI for pick 10.

10. Paris Johnson Jr, OT; RAS undetermined - This dude is a monster.  36 inch arms! We move ahead of Tennessee thinking there was no way this guy is available here, but with the way the draft board went out, we get a player who has started at both RG and LT successfully in college. Day 1 he should compete for starting RT or RG and is the favorite to take over the starting LT position from Bakh in a year. Philly trades down hoping to get more value for the CB they want to take.

I like most of this, but I will nitpick some things, just like I always try to do with every mock draft/offseason.

1.  Why Myers at 16 per AAV, when we can have the more familiar, bigger, better blocker Allen Lazard for the same price?

2.  Man, would I be disappointed trading up for an OT.  Just keep Yosh at the second round tender.  Let the OL fall to you.  We have shown to be pretty good at developing OL that are seen as lesser prospects. 

 

3.  You got both of my favorite WRs in this draft.  TBH, if we could pull that off, I don't know that we need to get any FA WRs.  Unless you just want an older pro for locker room purposes, then just bring back Randall Cobb for like a fifth of what the other FAs would cost.  

4.  I think I could live with the safety group of Ford, Thronhill, Savage and sometimes Rasul.  This most likely depends on one's opinion of Ford though.

 

 

[edit] I don't know how I missed Isaiah Foskey when I was looking at pass rushers.  There is a lot to like there.  

Edited March 13, 2023 by ThatJerkDave

[{Family Ghost}]

That would be a strong offseason for sure.

[VegasDan]

Would take this in a heartbeat. Well done!

Personally, I wouldn't trade up from 13 for an OT, but you make a good case. Makes sense.

Packers got much better after this.

[Old Guy]

I appreciate the work you put into these. I liked version one better mostly because I don't like the value, in the Rodgers trade. We will know soon enough if your value is close or not.

Also, I think this is a trade down draft not a trade up one. Taking a LT is never a bad thing but I'd rather not. Just personal preference rather than the position/player. 

[HighCalebR]

Luke is a good fit for the big slot spot. Guy is abysmal at blocking EDGE or DE, real tenacious against DB's though. Guys 100% a WR right now. More fluid than Lazard but with less opportunity to see high point work/YAC/contested catches. Just not a ton of production. I don't see where you'd ever see him as a positive in-line. That's a hard one for me to get on board with. Just don't see a year 1 player.

But if you love the guy, you love the guy! Only takes one.

[Arthur Penske]

Really like the first 4 picks a lot

after that…

[Sandy]

Thanks all for the feedback y'all, positive and negative. Really do appreciate it.

And @vegas492 I think i might have broken the cycle by trading out of the third and then back into it. Otherwise I destroyed poor Pickins career.

[Old Guy]

5 hours ago, Sandy said:

Thanks all for the feedback y'all, positive and negative. Really do appreciate it.

And @vegas492 I think i might have broken the cycle by trading out of the third and then back into it. Otherwise I destroyed poor Pickins career.

 I think@vegas492 needs to start a Sean Ryhan thread so we can break the 3rd round jinx once and for all. 

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, Old Guy said:

 I think@vegas492 needs to start a Sean Ryhan thread so we can break the 3rd round jinx once and for all. 

It has to happen naturally, but...point taken.  But now is not the time.  I still have much work to do.

[gopackgo972]

9 hours ago, Sandy said:

Thanks all for the feedback y'all, positive and negative. Really do appreciate it.

And @vegas492 I think i might have broken the cycle by trading out of the third and then back into it. Otherwise I destroyed poor Pickins career.

Meyers signed with LV. Bracket busted lol