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The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?


CWood21

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Now that the dust has settled and we should all be able to look at the moves from a level head now (vs. the emotional state I'm sure some were in yesterday). Here are my thoughts:

1] We were out on the Soto deal on Monday night, knowing what the asking price was and knowing what SD willing to part with. Looking at the Padres, they were clearly going all-in on this year and next to win the WS. They've absolutely decimated they're farm system with the (2) moves they made for Hader and Soto. They tried this approach in 2015 and then tore the whole thing down a year later. 

2] I just can't fathom us meeting the asking price. It would've taken Walker/Carlson, Gorman, Wynn, Graceffo, Hence + to get this done. San Diego gave up Gore (who we don't have a SP prospect/roster piece that could've matched that), Abrams (who was they're #1 prospect last year before graduating), Hassell (who was again their #1 prospect at one point recently), Wood (who has immense upside like a Tink Hence and might end up being the best piece in this deal) and Susana who is MLB ready. They absolutely gutted their system. They can do that though because they're a bigger market, coast team who will have no problem continuing to draw young FA's to live that life-style out there in future. Plus, they actually have a decent chance of being able to sign Soto long-term once he gets to market. 

3] Not sure why some are blasting the FO on the (2) pitching moves. Quintana was exactly what we needed, a BOR guy to eat innings, who is happening to have a resurgence this year. We gave up minimal talent for him. Montgomery has higher upside and seems to be turning the corner from his early career struggles and arm injuries. We seem to be getting him at the perfect time. Plus, we have another year of control on him. I love that they saw the potential writing on the wall with Bader's injury and struck now to get value for him vs. waiting and hoping. We've seen here 1st hand of that injury alters player's trajectory, especially considering his biggest value was his defense and the premium position he needed to play. 

4] I'm not sure what else people wanted Mo to do? We weren't getting Tyler Mahle (Reds weren't trading that asset in the division with his control still left), Eovaldi and Rodon didn't get moved by their team, Montas cost the Yankees (2) of their top 4 prospects  - not worth it for a guy who is at best a 2/3 and just had recent shoulder injury. Go back and look at some of the comments in this thread about what we wanted to see done outside of Soto - we all were clamoring for (2) SP's. That's exactly what we got. it wasn't the sexiest names out there, but knowing the price it took for those guys, I'm thankful we didn't execute those. The only real argument I think there is is that we didn't add a more significant BP piece. 

Edited by kgarrett12486
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13 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

3] Not sure why some are blasting the FO on the (2) pitching moves. Quintana was exactly what we needed, a BOR guy to eat innings, who is happening to have a resurgence this year. We gave up minimal talent for him. Montgomery has higher upside and seems to be turning the corner from his early career struggles and arm injuries. We seem to be getting him at the perfect time. Plus, we have another year of control on him. I love that they saw the potential writing on the wall with Bader's injury and struck now to get value for him vs. waiting and hoping. We've seen here 1st hand of that injury alters player's trajectory, especially considering his biggest value was his defense and the premium position he needed to play. 

Exactly, while I would have personally made the Soto move (Ive stated it many times) I get what they were doing, and addressing our ACTUAL needs was a very smart move. 

My only gripe with this, Mo made the incorrect moves this offseason. We could have easily had Quintana as a Free Agent, and could have easily replaced any combination of VerHagen/Wittgren/Naughten. And a an extension of that, if our interest in Rodon was real, we could have signed him to the same type of deal he is also on.

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34 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

1] We were out on the Soto deal on Monday night, knowing what the asking price was and knowing what SD willing to part with. Looking at the Padres, they were clearly going all-in on this year and next to win the WS. They've absolutely decimated they're farm system with the (2) moves they made for Hader and Soto. They tried this approach in 2015 and then tore the whole thing down a year later. 

2] I just can't fathom us meeting the asking price. It would've taken Walker/Carlson, Gorman, Wynn, Graceffo, Hence + to get this done. San Diego gave up Gore (who we don't have a SP prospect/roster piece that could've matched that), Abrams (who was they're #1 prospect last year before graduating), Hassell (who was again their #1 prospect at one point recently), Wood (who has immense upside like a Tink Hence and might end up being the best piece in this deal) and Susana who is MLB ready. They absolutely gutted their system. They can do that though because they're a bigger market, coast team who will have no problem continuing to draw young FA's to live that life-style out there in future. Plus, they actually have a decent chance of being able to sign Soto long-term once he gets to market. 

Like I mentioned earlier, the Carlson/Walker combination was pretty much the most I'd go, and I wouldn't have thrown any other notable prospects in that deal (i.e. Masyn Winn, Tink Hence, etc.) so I don't blame them for not going to match the Padres' offer.  I'm a bit more bullish on MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams than I think the Padres/Nationals are.  But the Padres gutted their farm system to acquire Juan Soto.  Outside of Luis Campusano, the Padres' farm system doesn't have any other notable players pushing the big leagues.  They're first two picks probably become top 3 prospects by default now.

43 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

3] Not sure why some are blasting the FO on the (2) pitching moves. Quintana was exactly what we needed, a BOR guy to eat innings, who is happening to have a resurgence this year. We gave up minimal talent for him. Montgomery has higher upside and seems to be turning the corner from his early career struggles and arm injuries. We seem to be getting him at the perfect time. Plus, we have another year of control on him. I love that they saw the potential writing on the wall with Bader's injury and struck now to get value for him vs. waiting and hoping. We've seen here 1st hand of that injury alters player's trajectory, especially considering his biggest value was his defense and the premium position he needed to play. 

I'm not sure people are blasting Mo for adding pitching.  I think they're blasting him for A) his inaction last offseason and B) creating a hole to fix another hole.  The Cardinals could have signed Jose Quintana last offseason.  They could have signed Carlos Rodon last offseason.  When it was readily apparent to everyone that the Cardinals need TWO starting pitchers, they signed one.  Jose Quintana signed a 1 year, $2M deal with the Pirates, and they got 2 WAR out of him.  The Giants signed Carlos Rodon to a 2 year (1+1), $44M deal and they've gotten 4 WAR out of him this year.  The Cardinals aren't pushed up against the payroll by any means, and they chose to go with the "safe" route when they signed Matz and wanted to rely on their youngsters.

As for the Bader/Montgomery swap, we effectively traded a CF for a SP.  They've got the exact same team control (both FAs after the 2024 season) and both have been equally solid.  The major difference is that Harrison Bader is dealing with a potentially serious foot injury, and Montgomery appears healthy.  The strikeouts and walks are both down for Montgomery, and FanGraphs has him as a ~3 WAR SP for the next 3 years.  Not too different then Harrison Bader.  He's effectively your #4 starter for the rest of this year and next.  Unless you think there's a jump coming, the Cardinals effectively created a hole in the OF to patch a hole in the rotation.  Presumably speaking, that makes an opening for one of their Memphis' OF, probably Alec Burleson.  And that in turn probably allows the Cardinals to move Jordan Walker up and able to give him consistent PT in the OF.

55 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

4] I'm not sure what else people wanted Mo to do? We weren't getting Tyler Mahle (Reds weren't trading that asset in the division with his control still left), Eovaldi and Rodon didn't get moved by their team, Montas cost the Yankees (2) of their top 4 prospects  - not worth it for a guy who is at best a 2/3 and just had recent shoulder injury. Go back and look at some of the comments in this thread about what we wanted to see done outside of Soto - we all were clamoring for (2) SP's. That's exactly what we got. it wasn't the sexiest names out there, but knowing the price it took for those guys, I'm thankful we didn't execute those. The only real argument I think there is is that we didn't add a more significant BP piece. 

Again, the deadline inaction wasn't the issue.  The problem is that the Cardinals were forced to correct issues that were present last offseason.

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36 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

We could have easily had Quintana as a Free Agent, and could have easily replaced any combination of VerHagen/Wittgren/Naughten.

Yeah, this is a good point. It seems like a continual problem that we give out these contracts to scrubs while there are much better options that get paid less. Some fans on Reddit were coping with losing Soto because we can just sign him as a FA now. I was thinking, we didn’t even sign Quintana over something named Drew Verhagen don’t get your hopes up for Soto lol

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13 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

the Cardinals effectively created a hole in the OF to patch a hole in the rotation.

We have an excess in the OF, we didnt create a hole there (especially since he's been hurt). In reality we solved the Bader problem by not making it our problem any longer

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3 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

Yeah, this is a good point. It seems like a continual problem that we give out these contracts to scrubs while there are much better options that get paid less. Some fans on Reddit were coping with losing Soto because we can just sign him as a FA now. I was thinking, we didn’t even sign Quintana over something named Drew Verhagen don’t get your hopes up for Soto lol

I mean, it's more of the fact that the Cardinals' FO seems to have preferred the high floor, low upside FAs the last few years.  The Cardinals signed Steven Matz (4 years, $44M), Corey Dickerson (1 year, $5M), Drew VerHagen (2 years, $5.5M), Albert Pujols (1 year, $2.5M), and Nick Wittgren (1 year, $1.2M).  They've got a combined -0.1 WAR out of them.  That's TERRIBLE value, and there was legitimately no upside with any of the signing.  I didn't even hate the Steven Matz signing, I probably would have gone with a higher AAV rather than giving him a fourth year.

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1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said:

We have an excess in the OF, we didnt create a hole there (especially since he's been hurt). In reality we solved the Bader problem by not making it our problem any longer

What problem was that?  Playing CC-caliber defense in CF?  And I'm not seeing the same glut of OFers you are.  Corey Dickerson and Nars Lootbarr are not starting OFers by any stretch.  In Memphis, we've got Alec Burleson (who is clearly a cOF), Scott Hurst (backup OF type), and Connor Capel (AAAA OF type).  There's just not much there.

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5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

What problem was that?  Playing CC-caliber defense in CF?  And I'm not seeing the same glut of OFers you are.  Corey Dickerson and Nars Lootbarr are not starting OFers by any stretch.  In Memphis, we've got Alec Burleson (who is clearly a cOF), Scott Hurst (backup OF type), and Connor Capel (AAAA OF type).  There's just not much there.

The problem was he cant hit. Are you just ignoring that now?

And now its a question if he will ever be the same GG-caliber defense (which the metrics are dubious about to begin with) after this foot issue, which was being talked about way before a trade was ever on the table

Well we have Carlson, O'Neill, Yepez, Donovan, and Edman who can all play in the OF, and some will need to with squeezing Gorman into 2B, and if DeJong is playable again (because thats alot of $ not to play).

And thats before we even get to the prospects who are knocking on the door, in Burleson who some say is already ready, and Walker who plenty have said will be up in 2023. There arent enough ABs to go around for all of these guys, there just arent no matter how many "rest days" you want to keep pitching as the answer.

 

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3 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

The problem was he cant hit. Are you just ignoring that now?

And now its a question if he will ever be the same GG-caliber defense (which the metrics are dubious about to begin with) after this foot issue, which was being talked about way before a trade was ever on the table

Well we have Carlson, O'Neill, Yepez, Donovan, and Edman who can all play in the OF, and some will need to with squeezing Gorman into 2B, and if DeJong is playable again (because thats alot of $ not to play).

And thats before we even get to the prospects who are knocking on the door, in Burleson who some say is already ready, and Walker who plenty have said will be up in 2023. There arent enough ABs to go around for all of these guys, there just arent no matter how many "rest days" you want to keep pitching as the answer.

Can't hit?  He's posted wRC+ of 114, 110, and 93 over the last 3 seasons.  So he's a slightly above league average hitter and he's playing CC-caliber defense.  I'm willing to sacrifice a little bit of hitting for good defense in CF.  Both defensive metrics I tend to use (DRS and UZR) both have him as at least average in CF (DRS) to above-average (UZR).  Over their careers, Dylan Carlson has graded out worse in CF then Harrison Bader is, so there's probably a natural drop off.  They're trading CF defense for presumably cOF offense.

And we're talking about today.  Not a year or two from now.  We're talking about today.  Who gets the lion's share of ABs in RF now?  Given the current roster composition (not including potential call ups), it's going to be Corey Dickerson getting majority of the ABs in RF.  LIS, I'd imagine Alec Burleson gets the call up here within a week or so.  DeJong has done nothing to justify that he deserves regular ABs, and he's produced in a very limited sample size.

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1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

Exactly, while I would have personally made the Soto move (Ive stated it many times) I get what they were doing, and addressing our ACTUAL needs was a very smart move. 

My only gripe with this, Mo made the incorrect moves this offseason. We could have easily had Quintana as a Free Agent, and could have easily replaced any combination of VerHagen/Wittgren/Naughten. And a an extension of that, if our interest in Rodon was real, we could have signed him to the same type of deal he is also on.

That one is fair. In hindsight, the last (2) years Mo has not gotten what was anticipated our of the plan for SP's. In 2021, they bet on the young, internal options to supplement what they had. After numerous injuries, ineffectiveness we were searching. Then this off-season they banked on a healthy Flaherty and adding (1) true FA in Matz and some lottery tickets/bargains from the KBO. Fast forward and injuries have decimated the rotation again. Not getting Sean Manea for basically nothing is the one that stung for me. 

However, I continue to see people upset they didn't land the Castillo or Montas at the deadline. I don't get that one.  

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

As for the Bader/Montgomery swap, we effectively traded a CF for a SP.  They've got the exact same team control (both FAs after the 2024 season) and both have been equally solid.  The major difference is that Harrison Bader is dealing with a potentially serious foot injury, and Montgomery appears healthy.  The strikeouts and walks are both down for Montgomery, and FanGraphs has him as a ~3 WAR SP for the next 3 years.  Not too different then Harrison Bader.  He's effectively your #4 starter for the rest of this year and next.  Unless you think there's a jump coming, the Cardinals effectively created a hole in the OF to patch a hole in the rotation.  Presumably speaking, that makes an opening for one of their Memphis' OF, probably Alec Burleson.  And that in turn probably allows the Cardinals to move Jordan Walker up and able to give him consistent PT in the OF.

Again, the deadline inaction wasn't the issue.  The problem is that the Cardinals were forced to correct issues that were present last offseason.

Disagree with them creating a hole if the OF by trading Bader. We weren't getting him back until September at the earliest and unlikely he'd be 100%, or able to play everyday CF anyway by then. Reality is (especially the way we've seen things play out)  we couldn't count on him for anything more in 2021. We would've been playing with a patch work OF even if Bader stayed. 

I've always been a Bader supporter on this site. His defense was elite and his bat played. However, when I saw the diagnosis of plantar fasciitis, my tune changed on his future. I've see enough of this injury to know just how severe it can be and how it's something h's going to deal with the rest of his career. I truly think his everyday CF days are over. That drastically hurts his value moving forward. Just my opinion though as someone who works in a medical setting and interacts with specialists (and this issue in particular) daily. 

 

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27 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Both defensive metrics I tend to use (DRS and UZR) both have him as at least average in CF (DRS) to above-average (UZR).

you are touting him as Gold Glove... thats not average to above-average. Thats supposed to be the BEST glove in the league. I would take that for a little less offense, not league average offense (which I would still argue hes worse than that)

29 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

And we're talking about today.  Not a year or two from now.  We're talking about today.  Who gets the lion's share of ABs in RF now?

We are talking about both, but if you want to talk about right now, what was Bader doing for this team RIGHT NOW? Nothing is the answer, because he is hurt, and you cant even guarantee he would be doing anything for us if we make the playoffs, which is why that PTBNL is in the deal.

It might be Dickerson who gets it. But it also will be Yepez and Donovan and even Edman with DeJong and Gorman needing time in the MIF, and again, all of that was happening anyway because it wasnt going to be Bader out there. So in reality we should only be talking about next year, and if we were going to being re-signing him or not.

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43 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

you are touting him as Gold Glove... thats not average to above-average. Thats supposed to be the BEST glove in the league. I would take that for a little less offense, not league average offense (which I would still argue hes worse than that)

He won a Gold Glove last year.  He's obviously struggled with injuries this year.  He's 3rd in UZR among CFers with at least 500 innings.  And the general rule of thumb is that it takes 3 years of production to get an idea of how a player grades defensively.  Excluding 2020 (for small sample size), he's been top 3 in DRS AND UZR/150 in every category except DRS this year.  He's a top 3 defensive CFer when healthy.

57 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

We are talking about both, but if you want to talk about right now, what was Bader doing for this team RIGHT NOW? Nothing is the answer, because he is hurt, and you cant even guarantee he would be doing anything for us if we make the playoffs, which is why that PTBNL is in the deal.

We're obviously talking about if he's healthy.  We don't have access to his medicals.  The PBTNL is probably just a throw-in, since they can get cash considerations instead.

59 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

It might be Dickerson who gets it. But it also will be Yepez and Donovan and even Edman with DeJong and Gorman needing time in the MIF, and again, all of that was happening anyway because it wasnt going to be Bader out there. So in reality we should only be talking about next year, and if we were going to being re-signing him or not.

You're talking about Harrison Bader being a "bad" defender, and Juan Yepez graded out worse in terms of DRS and UZR in his 253.2 innings in the OF.  Brendan Donovan grades out a little bit better defensively, as he grades out to average defensively.  If DeJong's bat can stay consistent, it makes it easier since you can rotate Edman and Donovan out to the OF.

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