Jump to content

The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?


CWood21

Recommended Posts

What are your guys thoughts on C Andrew Knizner? He's currently at Springfield and doing quite well. Has a good bat with some pop. Solid defender who's only gotten better and he's thrown out 40% of runners against as a pro...

I know this isn't popular opinion, but I still don't think Carson Kelly is untouchable if the right scenario came along...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

What are your guys thoughts on C Andrew Knizner? He's currently at Springfield and doing quite well. Has a good bat with some pop. Solid defender who's only gotten better and he's thrown out 40% of runners against as a pro...

I know this isn't popular opinion, but I still don't think Carson Kelly is untouchable if the right scenario came along...

I know he has a plus bat, but that's about it. And I'm with you on Kelly. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

What are your guys thoughts on C Andrew Knizner? He's currently at Springfield and doing quite well. Has a good bat with some pop. Solid defender who's only gotten better and he's thrown out 40% of runners against as a pro...

I know this isn't popular opinion, but I still don't think Carson Kelly is untouchable if the right scenario came along...

I think we have a chance to develop another pretty solid catcher. We've got two young guys now who may be ready in the next 3 years. Knizner and Zach Johnson. It would stink to lose Kelly but I bet he could fetch a big haul.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exactly what I thought would happen with Carson Kelly, is happening. MM doesn't have the balls to tell Molina that he is sitting today, so Kelly continues to get no playing time. I could see the reason he wasn't playing yesterday, you got scouts there to watch Lynn, the last thing You would want is for him and Kelly not to be on the same page and for Lynn to get rocked...but today makes 5 straight games where Carson has sat. to me it's inexcusable, especially when you have a guy in Molina who's racked up so many innings behind the plate over the past few seasons. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Derrick Goold was just on 590...

1. He thinks Lynn is on the team beyond 7/31. 

2. Doesn't think Cards get an impact bat this week but sees moves on the way 

3. A lot of interest in Tommy Pham

4. A few teams have had their eye on Grichuk for awhile 

 

Nothing to groundbreaking there. Lynn staying would be a surprise though. 

Unless teams are low-balling their offers on Lance Lynn, that's surprising.  History says that the Cardinals should get some value for him, maybe not great value.  But they were never going to get great value for a pending FA.

Not sure where that impact bat is coming from.  Don't see any in FA, and I'm not sure any of them are going to be moved anytime soon.  Interested to know if the Pham/Grichuk interest is legitimate, or just a chance to add without giving up much?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I know this isn't popular opinion, but I still don't think Carson Kelly is untouchable if the right scenario came along...

I'm not sure anyone is advocating making Carson Kelly untouchable, so much as we're advocating about being stingy about moving him.  To me, you don't move up-the-middle prospects who have GG-caliber defense and a strong bat.  Whether that be catcher, SS, or CF, it's just bad business to do so.  Now, if it leads to an impact bat with reasonable amount of team control, I'd give up Kelly in a heartbeat.  But given the value catchers with a good bat have, I'm more than willing to stick with him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Unless teams are low-balling their offers on Lance Lynn, that's surprising.  History says that the Cardinals should get some value for him, maybe not great value.  But they were never going to get great value for a pending FA.

Not sure where that impact bat is coming from.  Don't see any in FA, and I'm not sure any of them are going to be moved anytime soon.  Interested to know if the Pham/Grichuk interest is legitimate, or just a chance to add without giving up much?

I'd expect a prospect in the 100-150 range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Exactly what I thought would happen with Carson Kelly, is happening. MM doesn't have the balls to tell Molina that he is sitting today, so Kelly continues to get no playing time. I could see the reason he wasn't playing yesterday, you got scouts there to watch Lynn, the last thing You would want is for him and Kelly not to be on the same page and for Lynn to get rocked...but today makes 5 straight games where Carson has sat. to me it's inexcusable, especially when you have a guy in Molina who's racked up so many innings behind the plate over the past few seasons. 

Definitely one of the reasons why I wasn't real keen on bringing him up this early.  He's just going to sit.  And while he's probably getting a LOT of work with Kelly, he's not getting any real game reps.  He'll probably get the start with Luke Weaver though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure anyone is advocating making Carson Kelly untouchable, so much as we're advocating about being stingy about moving him.  To me, you don't move up-the-middle prospects who have GG-caliber defense and a strong bat.  Whether that be catcher, SS, or CF, it's just bad business to do so.  Now, if it leads to an impact bat with reasonable amount of team control, I'd give up Kelly in a heartbeat.  But given the value catchers with a good bat have, I'm more than willing to stick with him.

Well then I think we're all on the same page, cuz I'm not moving Kelly for anything but a controlled, MOTO bat either...

I thought I was in the minority. Didn't think people wanted to move him for anything less than Carlos Correa...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What kind of value do you guys think Tommy Pham actually has right now?  On pace for for a 5+ WAR season, plays great defense, and is under team control until I believe 2021...Does his injury history and his vision issues decrease his trade value that significantly?  I'm of the mindset that we should trade him right now while his value is probably at its highest point it will ever be. 

 

Cardinals Trade:

Tommy Pham OF 

Giants trade:

Christian Arroyo 3B/SS/2B 

Is that reaching a bit? I really don't know. I just know the Giants have come out and said they don't want a lengthy rebuild, and seeing as their outfield is probably the oldest in baseball...

Edited by holt_bruce81
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

What kind of value do you guys think Tommy Pham actually has right now?  On pace for for a 5+ WAR season, plays great defense, and is under team control until I believe 2021...Does his injury history and his vision issues decrease his trade value that significantly?  

Really hard to peg his value given the fact that he's 29 years old right now and his injury history is going to hurt him in the long run.  Let's say he keeps up his current pace, and then readjust next year to 3 WAR with a 10% decrease in production year-after-year.  That would put him at 5 WAR this year, 3 WAR next year, 2.7 WAR in 2019, and 2.4 WAR in 2020, and 2.2 WAR in 2021.  That comes to roughly ~15 WAR over the five years.  Take out the 3 WAR he's put up thus far, and teams are acquiring roughly 12 WAR which is nice but nothing special.  He'll make minimum this year, and let's use the 40/60/80 to guess his contract value in his arbitration years so assuming $8M/WAR he's creating a surplus.  After doing the math that's roughly $63M in surplus value, and that's probably the high end for value.  If you bump his WAR projections to a 20% decrease you're probably looking at closer to $60M in surplus value.  And most of that value is coming from this season and next when he's under team control for next to nothing.  I guess it depends on whether or not you think he's A) going to stay healthy and B) going to be productive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • CWood21 changed the title to The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...