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The STL Cardinals Thread - Come On Down Steven Matz


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10 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Let's go through it shall we?  We're at $108M in guaranteed salaries via Cot's.  That doesn't include any arbitration raises, but it does include the Cardinals very likely declining their player options on Carlos Martinez ($0.5M) and Matt Carpenter ($2M).  If we're lazy and we assume ZERO raises for arbitration eligible players, that's another ~$10M.  Realistically, you probably going to need to double that because Jack Flaherty is going to get a pretty sizeable pay bump.  Let's use $20M as the total for arbitration raises for simplicity's sake, that puts the Cardinals at $128M.  The Cardinals payroll was pretty close to their 2019 number $163M/$164M, and their payroll in 2018 was $160M.  So let's use $170M as the number for their payroll.  Can you squeeze a $25M+ shortstop that doesn't end in a situation where the rotation is a HUGE liability again?

Jack’s getting a huge bump for missing the whole year? For a guy set on “letting the process play out” that would be surprising

and if you are going to call out adding $25m to SS as an issue (not accounting for the ~$6m that would be moved by Trading DeJong in a corresponding move) then why isn’t it an issue to add that kind of money to the rotation?

You already have $40M+ tied up in your top 3 paid starters (assuming your JF number) not sure how you can justify throwing $20m more at that by your logic? Especially with Hudson returning, running Reyes out there as a starter (already been confirmed by the team as the plan) and bot having counted either of their Arb bumps into that number. Plus your 2 young Lefties sitting in the minors pushing for roster spots. 

It sounds more like you would rather spend money on the rotation, which is fine, but that’s not anywhere close to reasons why we won’t go after the SS market. 

You don’t go pay for another a starter unless he is bolstering the TOP of your rotation. The guys you’re talking about to hold a spot for Liberatore cost like a mil or two at most (if that) seeing as there’s a chance they are out of the league if they aren’t pitching here for half a season.

If you are counting Liberatore as a contributor in ‘22 then you are already running 6 Starting Pitcher into Spring Training. Unless your are getting a potential Ace, or a sure fire #2 to add to the rotation, it’s just a waste of money. Where as a Starting SS is giving your every day production, and lengthening the lineup, which you absolutely HAVE TO DO. Just look at who is still alive in the playoffs

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8 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Jack’s getting a huge bump for missing the whole year? For a guy set on “letting the process play out” that would be surprising

Absolutely.  I subscribe to the 40/60/80 rule as a general rule of thumb.  He made $3.9M this year.  Figure that 20% raise, and anything less than $6M and you're thrilled IMO.  Not to mention, the Cardinals probably want to sign him to a long term deal, so pissing him off by low balling him in arbitration seems like at best a poor decision.

10 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

and if you are going to call out adding $25m to SS as an issue (not accounting for the ~$6m that would be moved by Trading DeJong in a corresponding move) then why isn’t it an issue to add that kind of money to the rotation?

Because you can only have ONE shortstop on the field.  You still need 5 SP.  And what happens when your SS inevitably loses a step.  You gonna shift him to 3B with Nolan Arenado already there?  And I'd argue that $25M is probably on the lower end of the spectrum for potential shortstops.  $25M/year would make them the 2nd highest paid shortstops, you have to imagine they're going to be chasing the $34.1M that Francisco Lindor got from the Mets.  So let's assume that $30M for simplicity's sake, and you're eating up another $5M in room.  That effectively eats up the "space" that you created by trading DeJong.

19 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

You already have $40M+ tied up in your top 3 paid starters (assuming your JF number) not sure how you can justify throwing $20m more at that by your logic? Especially with Hudson returning, running Reyes out there as a starter (already been confirmed by the team as the plan) and bot having counted either of their Arb bumps into that number. Plus your 2 young Lefties sitting in the minors pushing for roster spots. 

Waino is gone after next year.  And who do you see in our rotation in 2+ years?  You've got Jack Flaherty and probably Matt Liberatore.  But aside from those two, there's a TON of question marks.  I'd love to believe that Alex Reyes can be a legitimate SP, but he threw 72.1 IP this year.  If he throws 100+ IP next year, I'm thrilled.  But I'm not holding my breath.

24 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

It sounds more like you would rather spend money on the rotation, which is fine, but that’s not anywhere close to reasons why we won’t go after the SS market. 

You don’t go pay for another a starter unless he is bolstering the TOP of your rotation. The guys you’re talking about to hold a spot for Liberatore cost like a mil or two at most (if that) seeing as there’s a chance they are out of the league if they aren’t pitching here for half a season.

There's really only money for one significant addition.  It's your choice.  SS or SP.  Which one do you feel is going to change the Cardinals' outcome.  We saw what the Cardinals managed to do when they managed to get even league average SP with Jon Lester and J.A. Happ.

25 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

If you are counting Liberatore as a contributor in ‘22 then you are already running 6 Starting Pitcher into Spring Training. Unless your are getting a potential Ace, or a sure fire #2 to add to the rotation, it’s just a waste of money. Where as a Starting SS is giving your every day production, and lengthening the lineup, which you absolutely HAVE TO DO. Just look at who is still alive in the playoffs

If Liberatore doesn't fall on his face, I'm thrilled.  I think he's going to be good, but he's probably going to go through his lumps as a rookie.

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6 hours ago, ttitansfan4life said:

#FireShildt

 

Bringing in a mentally shot Reyes in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game…. Makes total sense.

What a fitting way for the season to end. I honestly can't believe he brought Reyes in in that situation. I mean, you're most likely not going to win a game when you only score one run in 9 innings but come on. 

This was honestly the worst case scenario for the 'Fire Shildt' crowd because a playoff miss would've given us better odds of it actually happening. 

That being said, we're in a good spot for next season even if we have him running the show. A lot of money coming off the books and a lot of talent on the team. Getting a new manager would just be icing on the cake for me. 

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What a weird season, the 1st 2 months was about what you expected, the middle two months was one of the worst I can remember, the last two months was the best I've ever seen.

And then to loose in heartbreaking fashion.

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I'm excited about the future of this team. We've got some potential STUDS knocking on the door. I love Yepez and Gorman, but where do they fit? We've got solid players starting at most positions. Could some of our minors talent be involved in a big trade?

 The SS situation is interesting. I thought a dark horse candidate was Delvin Perez, but he started to fizzle in the second half. Ideally, Dejong would figure out how to not stink. That's unlikely, though.

We need some talent in the pitching staff too. We have a ton of question marks in the rotation. Can Waino keep up a high level, Mikolas' health, Thompson and Lib are rookies which are always worrisome, what can Dak give you(I'm trying to get past my previous bias against him), throw in Reyes and Hicks who are nothing but question marks and we've got a weird pitching situation. 

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35 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I'm excited about the future of this team. We've got some potential STUDS knocking on the door. I love Yepez and Gorman, but where do they fit? We've got solid players starting at most positions. Could some of our minors talent be involved in a big trade?

From everything I've heard, Nolan Gorman plays a passable 2B.  He will almost certainly make his MLB debut next year, but like Liberatore he will likely start the season off in Memphis to avoid Super 2 status.  As for Yepez, there's really no fit for him on the roster without a DH and Paul Goldschmidt locked up for the next 3 years.  Yepez is really a 1B-only type, although he might be able to play a passable LF right now he's almost certainly a future 1B/DH type.  Maybe you could deal him for a solid reliever, but I don't think he's someone you're headlining a package with.

41 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

The SS situation is interesting. I thought a dark horse candidate was Delvin Perez, but he started to fizzle in the second half. Ideally, Dejong would figure out how to not stink. That's unlikely, though.

Agreed.  As much as I would LOVE to add an impact SS, I think the money is more likely going to be spent on the rotation.  Plus, you've got potentially Nolan Gorman as the future 2B and Nolan Arenado is locked into the 3B position, it's going to be hard to find a spot if/when they need to get moved off of shortstop.  Carlos Correa should get something pretty close to what Francisco Lindor got even if he's likely going to need to move to 3B before his contract expires.  Even with his injury concerns, Corey Seager is going to get paid.  Not quite to Correa level, but I'd anticipate him getting $25M+ pretty easily.  Trevor Story struggled this year without Nolan Arenado, and he's long gone from Colorado.  Of all the shortstops, he's probably the one I'd anticipate might get some traction from the Cardinals, and that's if Arenado is in his ear and the money is close.  Marcus Semien is probably the value SS of the top ones, but he seems like a prime candidate for regression after his MVP-caliber season.

48 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

We need some talent in the pitching staff too. We have a ton of question marks in the rotation. Can Waino keep up a high level, Mikolas' health, Thompson and Lib are rookies which are always worrisome, what can Dak give you(I'm trying to get past my previous bias against him), throw in Reyes and Hicks who are nothing but question marks and we've got a weird pitching situation. 

Pitching is goign to be the biggest question mark for me.  Flaherty is coming off an injury-plagued season, and I'm hoping that a full offseason will get him right.  Waino is coming off arguably his best season since 2014, but he's 40 years old.  Odds are we probably won't get that level of production of him next year.  The Cardinals have gotten 44.2 IP out of Mikolas in the last 2 years.  I'm not holding my breath that we're going to get 180+ IP that we got out of him his first two years in St. Louis.  If we do, I'm stoked.  That's two guys that you're confident in (Waino and Flaherty), and then someone you like a lot but not confident in Mikolas.  That means that SP4/5 are going to come via some combination of Dakota Hudson and Alex Reyes.  That seems like the same disaster that was this year when we were a SP or two too short.  I think there's a decent chance we re-sign Jon Lester or J.A. Happ as a seat holder until Liberatore clears Super 2 status.  Dakota Hudson could conceivably fill that role, but I think his role next year is as a long reliever/spot starter.

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10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Absolutely.  I subscribe to the 40/60/80 rule as a general rule of thumb.  He made $3.9M this year.  Figure that 20% raise, and anything less than $6M and you're thrilled IMO.  Not to mention, the Cardinals probably want to sign him to a long term deal, so pissing him off by low balling him in arbitration seems like at best a poor decision.

Wait... $6m total is what you are worried about?

Also Jack isnt signing anything till he is a Free Agent, hes made that QUITE clear. They will offer a fair price, they arent looking to save anything with his salary slot, but he is also a guy who only made 15 starts this year (not all of them real starts even) and had a almost 5 ERA last year. Jacks not breaking the bank on this team. 

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Because you can only have ONE shortstop on the field.  You still need 5 SP.

But that ONE Shortstop plays EVERY DAY... Your Starting Pitcher is once every 5, so at most like just over 30 times a season. Yes we need pitcher, but Im of the belief that we have plenty of pitchers who can be at least #4-5 guys who all have better upside than that. So if we arent getting ATLEAST a #2 starter while spending significant money then its not worth it. Its not worth spending double digit millions for like Danny Duffy for this team.

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And what happens when your SS inevitably loses a step.  You gonna shift him to 3B with Nolan Arenado already there?

DH, its coming, its the first thing they are all going to agree to in the new CBA. Also, we arent guaranteed Arenado stays past next year, especially if we dont bolster this lineup. Also, we might not have to worry about "protecting" ourselves from Super 2 status after they get through these CBA negotiations, I think youre getting alittle ahead of yourself there

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And I'd argue that $25M is probably on the lower end of the spectrum for potential shortstops.  $25M/year would make them the 2nd highest paid shortstops, you have to imagine they're going to be chasing the $34.1M that Francisco Lindor got from the Mets.  So let's assume that $30M for simplicity's sake, and you're eating up another $5M in room.  That effectively eats up the "space" that you created by trading DeJong.

These guys are a great Group of SS, none of them are Lindor, and the larger group of them actually depresses their value, not increases it. and the biggest factor of all is that Lindor was 27 signing that contract. So sure Correa and Segar will be chasing that, still dont think they get therem but Baez and Story are 29, and Simien is already 31. They will cost a good amount, none of them are setting records though.

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And who do you see in our rotation in 2+ years?

I couldnt care less about that when talking about signing free agents. Our window is NOW. We need to strike durring 2022. Goldschmidt is only going to be diminishing returns form here on out (which is only 3 more seasons) hopefully a slow regression, but you have to expect some. You cant guarantee me that Arenado is here in 2023, you cant guarantee me that Jack is here in 2024. So if youre going to play the "What about the future" card then why are we doing this at all? And more over, what does ANOTHER middle of the rotation pitcher at $12-15m per year doing for this team? 

11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

We saw what the Cardinals managed to do when they managed to get even league average SP with Jon Lester and J.A. Happ

Youre hurting your own argument here

 

We obviously have very different expectations on what Hudson+Reyes+Liberatore will be giving this team in 2022, thats not likely to change, but if those 3 (plus Thompson and other potential guys) cant be at least the back end of the rotation, were in bigger trouble, we arent paying 5 starters $8-16m each

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Fangraphs had interesting breakdown of our expected payroll next season:

-We have $135 million committed already for 2022 when you factor in the new Wainwright and Yadi extensions

-Typically we can expect arbitration raises between $25 - 30 million, so they split the difference at $27.5 million

That puts us at approx. $162.5 million 

- In looking at what we operate at over the past and accounting in for inflation, they anticipate our payroll to be $177-$180 million. There is thought it could be pushed to $185 million comfortably. 

Based on this, if we assume $180 is our ceiling, we have about $17.5 million remaining. There is thought we're probably moving DeJong and his $6M, so we could approx to $23.5 million to play with (give/take a few million).

 

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49 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Wait... $6m total is what you are worried about?

Also Jack isnt signing anything till he is a Free Agent, hes made that QUITE clear. They will offer a fair price, they arent looking to save anything with his salary slot, but he is also a guy who only made 15 starts this year (not all of them real starts even) and had a almost 5 ERA last year. Jacks not breaking the bank on this team. 

A $3M raise for Jack Flaherty.  A $2M raise for Jordan Hicks and Harrison Bader.  A $1M raise for Gallegos, O'Neill, etc.  Those raises start to add up.  For simplicity's sake, I used the numbers of the contract from this past season.  But in reality, those players are going to get raises.  And I'm not arguing that Jack is going to break the bank.  I'm arguing that you need to account for the fact that he's going to likely get a pretty sizeable pay raise.

51 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

But that ONE Shortstop plays EVERY DAY... Your Starting Pitcher is once every 5, so at most like just over 30 times a season. Yes we need pitcher, but Im of the belief that we have plenty of pitchers who can be at least #4-5 guys who all have better upside than that. So if we arent getting ATLEAST a #2 starter while spending significant money then its not worth it. Its not worth spending double digit millions for like Danny Duffy for this team.

SS wasn't an even issue this past season.  We were 18th in wRC+ and 15th in WAR out of our shortstops this year.  But again, what happens when (not if) your SS loses lateral agility and has to move off of shortstop?  They're not unseating Arenado at 3B.  Nolan Gorman should hopefully be entrenched at 2B.  LF seems to be Tyler O'Neill's for the foreseeable future.  1B is locked up by Paul Goldschmidt.  You wanna know the last time the Cardinals had 5 SPs throw 150+ innings (~30 starts, 5 IP/start)?  2005.  That was a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, and Matt Morris.  That's 15 seasons since the Cardinals' rotation has stayed healthy the entire year.  I honestly think Max Scherzer is going to be a HUGE target for the Cardinals.  And as long as the Dodgers don't throw funny money at him, I think the interest will be mutual.

11 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

DH, its coming, its the first thing they are all going to agree to in the new CBA. Also, we arent guaranteed Arenado stays past next year, especially if we dont bolster this lineup. Also, we might not have to worry about "protecting" ourselves from Super 2 status after they get through these CBA negotiations, I think youre getting alittle ahead of yourself there

It's coming.  We don't know when.  We think it's coming after the new CBA.  I was also told by many (I believe including you) that it was coming after the COVID season last year.  And this year we didn't have a DH in the National League.  And Nolan Arenado is our starting 3B until he opts out of his deal.  Or starts talking about wanting to leave.  The second opt out was more of a safety net for Arenado that if things went really poorly, he still had the ability to leave.  If he was going to leave, he would have after this year.  Things would have to drastically sour for him to not return to St. Louis.

12 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

These guys are a great Group of SS, none of them are Lindor, and the larger group of them actually depresses their value, not increases it. and the biggest factor of all is that Lindor was 27 signing that contract. So sure Correa and Segar will be chasing that, still dont think they get therem but Baez and Story are 29, and Simien is already 31. They will cost a good amount, none of them are setting records though.

Carlos Correa is better then Francisco Lindor.  Lindor is obviously better defensively, but Correa's bat is so much better.  He'll easily push Lindor's AAV for a SS.  Seager has the injury issues, which probably deflates his value but I think he still can get around $30M/year.

12 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I couldnt care less about that when talking about signing free agents. Our window is NOW. We need to strike durring 2022. Goldschmidt is only going to be diminishing returns form here on out (which is only 3 more seasons) hopefully a slow regression, but you have to expect some. You cant guarantee me that Arenado is here in 2023, you cant guarantee me that Jack is here in 2024. So if youre going to play the "What about the future" card then why are we doing this at all? And more over, what does ANOTHER middle of the rotation pitcher at $12-15m per year doing for this team? 

Our time is as long as our core continues to produce.  It's not just one year.  If you're asking yourself, who improves the 2022 St. Louis Cardinals more, Max Scherzer or Trevor Story/Marcus Semien?  Nobody is advocating for a MOR starter on a bloated contract.  I'll probably be saying it until I'm blue in the face this offseason, but Max Scherzer is literally a perfect fit for the Cardinals.

12 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Youre hurting your own argument here

I'm really not.  IF that's what the Cardinals did when they got legitimate SP, what happens if they had great pitching?  We're not holding out hope on a 17+ game winning streak.

12 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

We obviously have very different expectations on what Hudson+Reyes+Liberatore will be giving this team in 2022, thats not likely to change, but if those 3 (plus Thompson and other potential guys) cant be at least the back end of the rotation, were in bigger trouble, we arent paying 5 starters $8-16m each

Alex Reyes has done absolutely NOTHING to suggest he's a viable SP.  IF we 100 IP out of him next year, I'm thrilled.  I hope I'm wrong, but I fear at this point he's a reliever.  Dakota Hudson was nothing special before TJS, he's probably not going to change that after TJS.  He's the exact type of player that you use for the first 6 years of their career, and let someone else overpay for him when he's a FA.  I'm hopeful that Liberatore will be good, but I think he's going to take some beatings early on.

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It's hard to rely on young starting pitchers. That's why I'm worried about Lib and Thompson. I don't know if we can get Max, but I he would be a godsend. I'd feel a lot more comfortable not being too reliant on Reyes, Lib, Thompson, Dak, and even Waino. That's way too many question marks for me. I'd like to sign a SS and trade a huge package for a TOR starter. We've got a ton of prospects and a very limited amount of open spots. I'm more an ideas guy than a reality guy, so I don't know how we could make the money work. 

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1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said:

It's hard to rely on young starting pitchers. That's why I'm worried about Lib and Thompson. I don't know if we can get Max, but I he would be a godsend. I'd feel a lot more comfortable not being too reliant on Reyes, Lib, Thompson, Dak, and even Waino. That's way too many question marks for me. I'd like to sign a SS and trade a huge package for a TOR starter. We've got a ton of prospects and a very limited amount of open spots. I'm more an ideas guy than a reality guy, so I don't know how we could make the money work. 

The problem is any TOR starter package is going to see the other team ask for either Nolan Gorman or Matt Liberatore.  And I think right now, both are as close to untradeable as it gets given their proximity to the big leagues.  Even if the Cardinals were to get the other team to pass on those two, you're definitely going to have include Jordan Walker.  I'm as guilty as overvaluing prospects as much as anyone, but Walker is someone I want to see through.

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9 hours ago, CWood21 said:

We were 18th in wRC+ and 15th in WAR out of our shortstops this year.

So we were average or below at SS? Thats middle of the pack, which means on a Championship team, its not good enough. Not to mention, where else are we upgrading this lineup? Especially for the 2022 season? Not at the corners, not at Catcher, not in the OF anymore. It has to be the middle infield.

9 hours ago, CWood21 said:

But again, what happens when (not if) your SS loses lateral agility and has to move off of shortstop?  They're not unseating Arenado at 3B.  Nolan Gorman should hopefully be entrenched at 2B.

The answer is still the DH, which I will address in a second, but you are so weary on counting on our young arms, yet you are just assuming Gorman is just going to be given 2B (not his natural position) for the next 5 years? Seems like a stretch

9 hours ago, CWood21 said:

It's coming.  We don't know when.  We think it's coming after the new CBA.  I was also told by many (I believe including you) that it was coming after the COVID season last year.  And this year we didn't have a DH in the National League.

Youre right, we didnt have it, we should have but the Owners wouldnt give up something for the players like originally planned, so they held onto it till the 11th hour, and then pulled it off the table. Why? Because they knew there was a full CBA negotiation coming this offseason. It happening, and to pretend it isnt very soon is just a fools errand. Not to mention, we arent talking about needing it in 2022 for the SS we could potentially sign. You are calling out when they lose the ability to be a full time SS (Which may never happen while here, weve been dealing with the very average defensively DeJong for years). So youre willing to die on the hill that we arent getting the DH in the next 3-5 years? Because thats when it would start to be a hinderance

And even if/when they start to fall off, Goldschmidt is likely already past his current contract, so we would have to have resigned him at some hindering number to be an issue, as well as another bat long term to be a DH. My point is, you are calling out potential future problems that are very unlikely. Because say you have to sign one of these guys for 5 years, if you dont think they are an every day starter at Sort for atleast 3 of them, most likely 4 and you deal with one "issue season" then you arent signing them in the first place.

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And Nolan Arenado is our starting 3B until he opts out of his deal.  Or starts talking about wanting to leave.  The second opt out was more of a safety net for Arenado that if things went really poorly, he still had the ability to leave.  If he was going to leave, he would have after this year.  Things would have to drastically sour for him to not return to St. Louis.

I dont think hes opting out, but you cant pretend its not an option. If we sit on our butts this offseason, bring nothing more to the team to chase down the Brewers much less the Dodgers, then he can leave. From what Ive heard he was never opting out after '21 thats why the second option was put in. Its more about Covid effects on big deals and ability to reset his contract when things settle again. But there is always the issue if he doesnt believe we are committed to winning, he's already delt with that for his entire career, and he wont do that again.

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Carlos Correa is better then Francisco Lindor.  Lindor is obviously better defensively, but Correa's bat is so much better.  He'll easily push Lindor's AAV for a SS.  Seager has the injury issues, which probably deflates his value but I think he still can get around $30M/year.

So one guy of the entire group has the chance to chase down Lindor, just a chance. That means the rest arent getting there, and I would say no where close. Its still a big chunk, but its not unpalatable. I would also call out that the range of our payroll is a running average, DeWitt has always said that. We are looking in the $160-170 range, but it can go higher, and we havent done that in a while (we all know the massive TV deal they are know raking in) so they have the opportunity, especially knowing we have $25m disappearing from the payroll after '22 with Yadi/Waino retiring.

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Our time is as long as our core continues to produce.  It's not just one year.

But it is, you are completely ignoring the Farewell Season. And as a businessman, Bill DeWitt isnt going to let that go by without butting his best foot forward. Im not saying that our chances as contenders completely shuts after 2022, but it will be under the biggest microscope since the MV3, especially if one of those is also back with this group. I would also add, while I put no stock into what Mike Shannon said, father time tells us that this is likely the tail end for Bill DeWitt himself. While his family may keep the team, the man is 80 years old, and wants to get one more Ring before all is said and done.

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

f you're asking yourself, who improves the 2022 St. Louis Cardinals more, Max Scherzer or Trevor Story/Marcus Semien?  Nobody is advocating for a MOR starter on a bloated contract.  I'll probably be saying it until I'm blue in the face this offseason, but Max Scherzer is literally a perfect fit for the Cardinals.

Ive said forever, if its Max Scherzer, then yes, he is top of the list, and there is maybe one other Free Agent pitcher who add that type of boost to your rotation. But if its not him then we are just shuffling in more overpaid arms. And while I agree he would be the perfect addition to this team, Im back to not sure if he wants anything to do with us. I dont think its a Dodger thing, I dont think its a wife/family thing, its the issue he has with the Cardinals specifically after we spurned him when he was leaving Detroit. Apparently he still wont even discuss what happened between them when local guys, guys he is still friendly with bring it up. The most we know is he showed interest in coming here, and we said pass. Im not sure hes ever forgiving whatever actually happened between them.

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Alex Reyes has done absolutely NOTHING to suggest he's a viable SP.  IF we 100 IP out of him next year, I'm thrilled.  I hope I'm wrong, but I fear at this point he's a reliever.  Dakota Hudson was nothing special before TJS, he's probably not going to change that after TJS.  He's the exact type of player that you use for the first 6 years of their career, and let someone else overpay for him when he's a FA.  I'm hopeful that Liberatore will be good, but I think he's going to take some beatings early on.

Were just never going to agree here. Alex Reyes is a starter, he always has been, and its pretty obvious that what kind of pitcher he is when you watch him out there. He was limited on his innings this year due to injury history, hes going to get a shot to be a starter going forward, hes just too valuable in that role not to. Its surprising to see that kind of dismissal from you yet you are all about Liberatore who hasnt faced a Major League batter yet in his career.

And No onesaid Hudson was an Ace, but he is a very reliable good pitcher, always has been, and thats who we should be filling out the rest of our rotation with, not another retread who will cost 5x as much.

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7 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

So we were average or below at SS? Thats middle of the pack, which means on a Championship team, its not good enough. Not to mention, where else are we upgrading this lineup? Especially for the 2022 season? Not at the corners, not at Catcher, not in the OF anymore. It has to be the middle infield.

Again, I'm not arguing that we couldn't improve our production at SS.  I'm arguing that isn't the part that's holding back our franchise.  In fact, we have more production issues at catcher then we do at shortstop.  But obviously, we're not moving on from Yadier Molina.  In fact, 2B/SS/3B would all be "upgradeable" positions.  The Giants had similar payroll constraints as the Cardinals did, and compare where their issues were.  They weren't getting mch production out of 2B, and pre-Kris Bryant trade 3B was a massive issue for them.  You're going to have holes on the roster.

11 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

The answer is still the DH, which I will address in a second, but you are so weary on counting on our young arms, yet you are just assuming Gorman is just going to be given 2B (not his natural position) for the next 5 years? Seems like a stretch

Still think Edman is your starting 2B until he either gets expensive or Gorman takes ahold of the position.  I'd imagine that'll be sometime next year.  He's put in the work there, and from what I've read he's playable there.  I mean, we said there was no way in hell Matt Carpenter could play 2B, and he took to the position reasonably well.  Nobody is going to confuse him with Kolten Wong, but if he plays a passable defense there his bat should easily make up for his shortcomings defensively.

12 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Youre right, we didnt have it, we should have but the Owners wouldnt give up something for the players like originally planned, so they held onto it till the 11th hour, and then pulled it off the table. Why? Because they knew there was a full CBA negotiation coming this offseason. It happening, and to pretend it isnt very soon is just a fools errand. Not to mention, we arent talking about needing it in 2022 for the SS we could potentially sign. You are calling out when they lose the ability to be a full time SS (Which may never happen while here, weve been dealing with the very average defensively DeJong for years). So youre willing to die on the hill that we arent getting the DH in the next 3-5 years? Because thats when it would start to be a hinderance

And even if/when they start to fall off, Goldschmidt is likely already past his current contract, so we would have to have resigned him at some hindering number to be an issue, as well as another bat long term to be a DH. My point is, you are calling out potential future problems that are very unlikely. Because say you have to sign one of these guys for 5 years, if you dont think they are an every day starter at Sort for atleast 3 of them, most likely 4 and you deal with one "issue season" then you arent signing them in the first place.

I'm not dying on any hill about the DH until we get more clarity.  I still think we're heading into a lockout.  I hope I'm wrong.  And I think Jordan Walker is the heir apparent to Goldschmidt.  He should be ready about the time that Goldschmidt's contract is up.  If Goldy's bat is still producing, he's a DH candidate if there is one in place.

14 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I dont think hes opting out, but you cant pretend its not an option. If we sit on our butts this offseason, bring nothing more to the team to chase down the Brewers much less the Dodgers, then he can leave. From what Ive heard he was never opting out after '21 thats why the second option was put in. Its more about Covid effects on big deals and ability to reset his contract when things settle again. But there is always the issue if he doesnt believe we are committed to winning, he's already delt with that for his entire career, and he wont do that again.

Unless you have reason to believe he's going to opt out, you operate under the assumption that he'll be back.

15 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

So one guy of the entire group has the chance to chase down Lindor, just a chance. That means the rest arent getting there, and I would say no where close. Its still a big chunk, but its not unpalatable. I would also call out that the range of our payroll is a running average, DeWitt has always said that. We are looking in the $160-170 range, but it can go higher, and we havent done that in a while (we all know the massive TV deal they are know raking in) so they have the opportunity, especially knowing we have $25m disappearing from the payroll after '22 with Yadi/Waino retiring.

It's more than a chance.  IF Correa doesn't get close to Lindor's contract, he needs to fire his agent.  Because he's arguably the most valuable FA in the last decade other then maybe Bryce Harper.  He's just 27 years old, and he's coming off a 5.8 WAR season.  And then the trickle down effects for the other top SS.  They should easily surpass the AAV that Fernando Tatis got from the Padres.  Again, I'm not saying the Cardinals don't have the payroll to sign a top SS.  I'm saying that if they do that, they won't have much money to spend anywhere else.

18 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

But it is, you are completely ignoring the Farewell Season. And as a businessman, Bill DeWitt isnt going to let that go by without butting his best foot forward. Im not saying that our chances as contenders completely shuts after 2022, but it will be under the biggest microscope since the MV3, especially if one of those is also back with this group. I would also add, while I put no stock into what Mike Shannon said, father time tells us that this is likely the tail end for Bill DeWitt himself. While his family may keep the team, the man is 80 years old, and wants to get one more Ring before all is said and done.

This was supposed to be the farewell season.  Until it wasn't.  And the Cardinals didn't extend payroll at all.  I really don't see the Cardinals extending their payroll significantly.  That $180M number that @MOSteelers56 through out a few posts back seems to be the highest I'd imagine they'd go.

20 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Ive said forever, if its Max Scherzer, then yes, he is top of the list, and there is maybe one other Free Agent pitcher who add that type of boost to your rotation. But if its not him then we are just shuffling in more overpaid arms. And while I agree he would be the perfect addition to this team, Im back to not sure if he wants anything to do with us. I dont think its a Dodger thing, I dont think its a wife/family thing, its the issue he has with the Cardinals specifically after we spurned him when he was leaving Detroit. Apparently he still wont even discuss what happened between them when local guys, guys he is still friendly with bring it up. The most we know is he showed interest in coming here, and we said pass. Im not sure hes ever forgiving whatever actually happened between them.

So ranking your top FAs along with expected AAV, what should be the Cardinals' priority?  As long as the Dodgers don't throw funny money at Scherzer, I think he's a viable top FA that will absolutely have interest in the Cardinals.

21 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Were just never going to agree here. Alex Reyes is a starter, he always has been, and its pretty obvious that what kind of pitcher he is when you watch him out there. He was limited on his innings this year due to injury history, hes going to get a shot to be a starter going forward, hes just too valuable in that role not to. Its surprising to see that kind of dismissal from you yet you are all about Liberatore who hasnt faced a Major League batter yet in his career.

And No onesaid Hudson was an Ace, but he is a very reliable good pitcher, always has been, and thats who we should be filling out the rest of our rotation with, not another retread who will cost 5x as much.

As of now Reyes is a starter in the sense in that he'll pitch for roughly half the year and be on the disabled list for the rest of it.  He's already 27 years old, and he hasn't thrown 100+ innings since 2016.  He missed all of the 2017 season with injury.  He threw 23 innings in 2018.  He threw 40.1 innings in 2019.   He threw 19.2 innings in 2020.  And he threw 72.1 inning this year.  Until he proves otherwise, he's a reliever.  You're not going to see him magically jump up to 150 innings next year.  If we can get 120 innings out of him, you're thrilled.  I'm not counting on Alex Reyes to be an innings eater.

Hudson is a replacement-level pitcher.  As long as he's cheap, he's valuable.  He's really no different then a Jon Lester or J.A. Happ as someone you plug into the backend of your rotation to eat innings.  If Dakota Hudson were making $15M/year, would you be saying the same thing about him?  Probably not.

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3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

 And the Cardinals didn't extend payroll at all.  I really don't see the Cardinals extending their payroll significantly.  That $180M number that @MOSteelers56 through out a few posts back seems to be the highest I'd imagine they'd go.

That was actually me, but hey who's counting lol. 

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