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The STL Cardinals Thread - Is It The Offseason Yet?


CWood21

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3 minutes ago, ttitansfan4life said:

Sure we do.... Why keep him? Bite the bullet and get rid of him.

And then what?  You need to get roughly ~1000 IP out of your SP, and at this point you're rolling out a rotation of:

Carlos Martinez
Michael Wacha
Alex Reyes
Luke Weaver
Jack Flaherty

And that means you've got very little depth in AAA, and you're relying on a guy coming back from TJS (Alex Reyes) and two rookies in a rotation.  That's an incredibly volatile situation.  And I can pretty much assure you that the Cardinals aren't going into the 2018 season with that rotation.

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4 minutes ago, tttmikeb said:

I don't think we do.  The good news is that we've got a couple guys in the minors who are close to ready if he gets hurt or struggles too much.

Let's say you jettison Wainwright, whether it be in the rotation or an outright release.  Then what?  Who steps into that void?  Right now, you have to get roughly ~1000 IP from your SP.  Figure 220 for Carlos Martinez and 200 IP for Michael Wacha.  That's still 580 innings you're splitting between Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver, and Jack Flaherty.  Asking Alex Reyes to throw more than 120 IP is probably irresponsible at best.  And you're relying on two rookies in the rotation.  That just isn't feasible IMO.

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5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

And then what?  You need to get roughly ~1000 IP out of your SP, and at this point you're rolling out a rotation of:

Carlos Martinez
Michael Wacha
Alex Reyes
Luke Weaver
Jack Flaherty

And that means you've got very little depth in AAA, and you're relying on a guy coming back from TJS (Alex Reyes) and two rookies in a rotation.  That's an incredibly volatile situation.  And I can pretty much assure you that the Cardinals aren't going into the 2018 season with that rotation.

Resign Lynn and find a backend starter for a year or two easing the younger guys in. Waino is essentially nothing right now. Finding a backend starter for a year or two can't be any worse. 

Edited by ttitansfan4life
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3 minutes ago, ttitansfan4life said:

Resign Lynn and find a backend starter for a year or two easing the younger guys in. Waino is essentially nothing right now. Finding a backendstarter for a year or two can't be any worse. 

How much money do you think a back-end SP is going to cost, especially when you're looking at one that doesn't require a long-term commitment?  Last offseason, Andrew Cashner got a 1 year, $10M deal from the Rangers, R.A. Dickey got a 1 year, $8M deal from the Braves, and Tyson Ross got a 1 year, $6M deal.  So you're likely looking in that $6-$8M range for a BOR starter without a long term commitment.  Is that really worth blocking one of our youngsters?  No.  And since you're not able to unload Wainwright's salary off the books, you're adding even more salary to the books.

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4 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Does anyone have any interest in Tyson Ross? 

Not really, no.  Right now, the only SP I see interesting the Cardinals is Lance Lynn.  Maybe they sign one of those bargain bin types, but probably nothing significant.  My guess is the rotation next year is Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, Luke Weaver, and Alex Reyes/Jack Flaherty.

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2 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I'm hoping we can work something out to where we don't put Reyes in the rotation until mid-May 

I completely forgot that Michael Wacha was on this roster (and under team control). With that, it does allow us to ease Reyes into the rotation. But the issue is to me, I would rather his innings limit (what 150? 160? maybe push it to 170?) be closer to July than October. That way, if we feel like we need to make a move for a starter, we still have some time to.

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1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

I completely forgot that Michael Wacha was on this roster (and under team control). With that, it does allow us to ease Reyes into the rotation. But the issue is to me, I would rather his innings limit (what 150? 160? maybe push it to 170?) be closer to July than October. That way, if we feel like we need to make a move for a starter, we still have some time to.

Lol, I wasn't thinking about Wacha either.  And honestly, it's probably not wise to necessarily bank on him throwing 200 innings.  Maybe he can.  But with previous health concerns and how up and down he's been this year, that's tough to count on.  I mean, it's not like they're gonna just cut him.  But they've got to have someone ready to step in if necessary.  I guess that's where the young guys like Weaver, Flaherty, etc. come in.  

Or, they could move Wacha to the bullpen.  I still don't see that as likely, but with how well some of the young guys have pitched, and if they bring back Lynn, the have the roster flexibility to make a bullpen move work.

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5 minutes ago, tttmikeb said:

Lol, I wasn't thinking about Wacha either.  And honestly, it's probably not wise to necessarily bank on him throwing 200 innings.  Maybe he can.  But with previous health concerns and how up and down he's been this year, that's tough to count on.  I mean, it's not like they're gonna just cut him.  But they've got to have someone ready to step in if necessary.  I guess that's where the young guys like Weaver, Flaherty, etc. come in.  

Or, they could move Wacha to the bullpen.  I still don't see that as likely, but with how well some of the young guys have pitched, and if they bring back Lynn, the have the roster flexibility to make a bullpen move work.

Id assume the tentative plan ( not factoring in full free agency, or setbacks) is to Re-sign Lynn, count the top 3 as him, Carlos and Wainwright. And lets see where Reyes is in his timeline, with him, Weaver and Wacha fight it out in the Spring for spots 4 & 5. 

If Reyes isnt fully ready, just extend his spring training in the minors. If Wacha looks good and Reyes is healthy, have Wacha start the year in Memphis, ready to take the slot of whomever is struggling (Waino/Wacha) or if there is an injury/setback. Or if it is obvious that Weaver and Reyes are the better pitchers, then its time to move Wacha to the bullpen. We do now have a giant hole at the Closer spot (and Wacha usually looks good the first time he sees batters)

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