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The STL Cardinals Thread - Come On Down Steven Matz


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The Cardinals removed Kevin Siegrist from the disabled list and promptly designated him for assignment. That sheds the lefty reliever from the 40-man roster and probably signals the end of his tenure with the team.

Was a bit shocked to see that the DFA'd Kevin Siegrist, but given his issues this year it's not totally surprising.  Another arm ruined by Matheny...

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55 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Still think he's going to cost more than the Cardinals are willing to give up...especially if they plan on including Jack Flaherty and Luke Weaver in the rotation in the near future.  At that point, what do you start the package with?  I'm not giving up Carson Kelly for Jake Odorizzi that's for sure.  Figure he's a ~2.5 WAR SP over the next two seasons.

I don't believe we're going to have two rookies in our rotation next year. I fully expect one of Weaver or Flaherty to be moved in a deal this off season and that may be for a bat...

With that said, I don't think Odorizzi would cost that much, especially not Kelly. He's not nearly as attractive as he once was...

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2 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I don't believe we're going to have two rookies in our rotation next year. I fully expect one of Weaver or Flaherty to be moved in a deal this off season and that may be for a bat...

With that said, I don't think Odorizzi would cost that much, especially not Kelly. He's not nearly as attractive as he once was...

Agreed.  There's too much volatility by having two rookies in the rotation.

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Ok...let's build a package for Jake Odorizzi.  You have to figure he's worth roughly ~2.5 WAR/year over the next two season, and figure the cost of WAR is roughly $8M/WAR.  That means he's worth $40M over the next two season.  He's arbitration eligible and if you use 60/80 rule we've used for FFMLB, he's going to create roughly ~$12M in surplus value which isn't a ton.  Obviously, you don't move Carson Kelly for him and definitely not Weaver/Flaherty.

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21 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I was looking at pitching leaders earlier. There aren't very many TOR starters on non contenders. 

I'm not sure the Cardinals are going to be in the market for a FOR starter.  Probably won't be one that's reasonably available, and they're probably not willing to pay the price tag either.  Probably looking at someone like Odorizzi.

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10 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

BTW gentlemen, my baby girl was born on Monday! Simply amazing...

Congrats man! it's a feeling you'll never forget. Hope everyone is doing well. 

I still remember the chills i got when I met my daughter for the first time. December 2015...after making us wait 20 hours (hope your wait was a little shorter) She came out, and that first cry man, it was like the Cardinals winning the WS times 10. I started crying uncontrollably like a little girl. And I'm not really an emotional guy. Now she runs the place.

You need any advice, shoot me a message. The first month or so can be rough. Especially she has a days and nights mixed up...which a lot do. 

Edited by holt_bruce81
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2 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Congrats man! it's a feeling you'll never forget. Hope everyone is doing well. 

I still remember the chills i got when I met my daughter for the first time. December 2015...after making us wait 20 hours (hope your wait was a little shorter) She came out, and that first cry man, it was like the Cardinals winning the WS times 10. I started crying uncontrollably like a little girl. And I'm not really an emotional guy. Now she runs the place.

You need any advice, shoot me a message. The first month or so can be rough. Especially she has a days and nights mixed up...which a lot do. 

Appreciate it! Loving every second even with no sleep lol.

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https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2017/9/5/16251436/paths-to-the-playoffs

Really interesting discussion about the Cardinals playoff chances.  Right now, FanGraphs has projected 5.3% chance of winning the division and 16.7% chance of winning a Wild Card spot.  A month ago, that seemed unreasonable at best given the fact that the Rockies had nearly a 10 game lead over the Cardinals, while the Cardinals were only 4.5 GB of the NL Central leading Cubs.  That lead hasn't changed for the Cubs, but the lead for the Rockies over the Cardinals has dropped to just 3 GB in the Wild Card.  Milwaukee is still a game and a half over the Cardinals at this point, and a 1.5 GB of the Rockies.  TL;DR if the Rockies win 13 of their final 25 games, the Cardinals have to win 16 of their final 15 games just to tie the Rockies.  And for a team that has struggled to get above .500, that seems unlikely at best.  Odds are the Cardinals aren't making the playoffs, which isn't totally surprising at this point.

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Since the Cardinals are a long shot to make a playoffs, it's probably not too farfetched to start looking at the 2018 Cardinals roster.  Let's take a look at salary obligations before we get too far.

C - Yadier Molina ($20M)
1B - Matt Carpenter ($13.75M)
2B - Kolten Wong ($4M)
SS - Paul DeJong (Minimum)
3B - Jedd Gyorko ($9M)
LF - Tommy Pham (Minimum)
CF - Dexter Fowler ($16.5M)
RF - Stephen Piscotty ($1.333M)

SP - Carlos Martinez ($11.7M)
SP - Adam Wainwright ($19.5M)
SP - Michael Wacha (Arb 2)
SP - Luke Weaver (Minimum)

RP - Trevor Rosenthal (Arb 3)
RP - Brett Cecil ($7.75M)
RP - Tyler Lyons (Arb 1)
RP - Matt Bowman (Minimum)

OF - Randal Grichuk (Arb 1)
2B/SS - Greg Garcia (Arb 1)
1B - Jose Martinez (Minimum)
C - Carson Kelly (Minimum)

That's pretty much everyone who was on the active roster that is under contract for 2018 I believe.  Those players combined make a bit over $103M combined, but that doesn't include the minimum salaries and arbitration raises.  Overall, the Cardinals have a rather healthy cap situation despite having two aging players eating up nearly $40M combined.

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