Jump to content

The STL Cardinals Thread - Come On Down Steven Matz


Recommended Posts

On 10/10/2017 at 8:40 PM, holt_bruce81 said:

Ok, decided to do my own mock off-season. Thanks @kgarrett12486 and @StLunatic88 for making me daydream about this crap, really appreciate it! 

First things first, I agree with everyone in saying it would be absolutely idiotic not to offer Lance a QO, So i'm assuming we offer and he declines. also, I think Jason Simontacchi becomes our new pitching coach. 

Free Agents:

1. Eric Hosmer 1B - Don't really care how much it cost the organization, it's not my money. The Cardinals generate enough money where I really don't think we need to worry about it. Earlier in the year I really was against trying to Acquire Hosmer, The defensive metrics aren't to kind to him. bUT i love the leadership and charisma he shows. Think he would do wonders in the clubhouse. 

2.  Juan Nicasio RP - Obvious reasons 

Trade:

Cardinals send: Matt Carpenter, Jack Flaherty, Stephen Piscotty 

Blue Jays send: Josh Donaldson

- Blue Jays GM has said previously that he's not looking to go full rebuild. So it's very reasonable to think they would be looking for more MLB ready type players in a trade that involves Donaldson. It's really hard to let Carp go, I will never forget his epic at bats in the postseason, especially against Kershaw. But I feel like he really handcuffs this team. 

Lineup:
1. Dexter Fowler CF 
2. Harrison Bader RF 
3. Eric Hosmer 1B 
4. Josh Donaldson 3B 
5. Paul DeJong SS 
6. Tommy Pham LF
7. Yadier Molina C 
8. Kolten Wong 2B 

Bench:
1. Jedd Gyorko 
2. Greg Garcia
3. Carson Kelly
4. Jose Martinez 
5. Alex Mejia

Rotation:
1. Carlos Martinez
2. Alex Reyes
3. Michael Wacha
4. Adam Wainwright
5. Luke Weaver 

- As much as I want them to start Reyes in the pen, especially at the beginning of the season, I don't think they will. And yes the rotation scares me, I really wanted to try and do a major blockbuster with Toronto where we were acquiring both Donaldson and Stroman, but my lord I couldn't even imagine what that would cost us. 

Bullpen:
BP: Matt Bowman
BP: John Brebbia
BP: Brett Cecil
BP: Ryan Sherriff 
SU: Tyler Lyons
SU: Sandy Alcantara 
CL: Juan Nicasio 

- Would love to find a way to get Dakota Hudson on this roster, but feel like he needs to stay stretched out in Memphis. 

Nice job @holt_bruce81. As all of us who've done the mock off-season this far we all love and think the Donaldson trade makes sense.

I like Hosmer IF we added another true bat like in this scenario.  Otherwise he gives us better defense and base running, but the bat s been hit or miss every other year...

Part I don't like is that we go into the season with identical pitching staff just adding in Reyes. I think we're going to see some roster changes in the BP at minimum and rightfully so...

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I like Hosmer IF we added another true bat like in this scenario.  Otherwise he gives us better defense and base running, but the bat s been hit or miss every other year...

I know Eric Hosmer is probably going to be a major name thrown around this offseason, but his track record makes me leery about committing to him long term.  He seems to have one good year followed by one bad year and then rebounds the next year.  Goes back as far as 2012 in terms of WAR.

2012: -1.7
2013: 3.2
2014: 0
2015: 3.5
2016: -0.1
2017: 4.1

Maybe @Jakuvious or @LuckyNumber11 can explain his issues.  I don't understand how he can be so up and down with the bat.

Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I know Eric Hosmer is probably going to be a major name thrown around this offseason, but his track record makes me leery about committing to him long term.  He seems to have one good year followed by one bad year and then rebounds the next year.  Goes back as far as 2012 in terms of WAR.

 

Definitely, that's why I mentioned it. It's an oddity for sure and something I'd be concerned about as well giving out a long term deal...

Link to post
Share on other sites

As expected:

Quote

 

Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that new Marlins owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter plan to cut the team's 2018 payroll to around $90 million.

The Marlins' payroll was a franchise-record $115 million in 2017 and is currently projected to be around $140 million in 2018 when factoring in impending raises. That means a lot of changes are coming, with a trade of Giancarlo Stanton and the $295 million remaining on his contract looking possible, if not probable. Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon are some other players Miami might look to move.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I know Eric Hosmer is probably going to be a major name thrown around this offseason, but his track record makes me leery about committing to him long term.  He seems to have one good year followed by one bad year and then rebounds the next year.  Goes back as far as 2012 in terms of WAR.

2012: -1.7
2013: 3.2
2014: 0
2015: 3.5
2016: -0.1
2017: 4.1

Maybe @Jakuvious or @LuckyNumber11 can explain his issues.  I don't understand how he can be so up and down with the bat.

I wish I could explain why Hos is the way that he is. I me even look at his splits this year. If he wasn't certified dog poop at the start of the year he might have been in MVP contention. Sometimes when he's in a rut he just starts swinging as hard as possible and hits a dribbler to first every at bat. His inconsistency has always confused me. I know in 2014 he broke his hand and kind of nagged him the whole year. 2016 the entire team was hurt so there was a little lack of effort there IMO. 2012 was a stereotypical sophomore slump. 

Wish I had a better answer but that's all I got 

Link to post
Share on other sites

$I'll get my offseason up in this week, maybe this weekend.  I want to look at our salary situation first.

C - Yadier Molina ($20M)
1B - Matt Carpenter ($13.75M)
2B - Kolten Wong ($4M)
SS - Paul DeJong (Minimum)
3B - Jedd Gyorko ($6.5M)
LF - Tommy Pham (Minimum)
CF - Dexter Fowler ($16.5M)
RF - Stephen Piscotty ($1.333M)

SP - Carlos Martinez ($11.5M)
SP - Adam Wainwright ($19.5M)
SP - Michael Wacha (Arb 2 - $5.9M)
SP - Luke Weaver (Minimum)

RP - Brett Cecil ($6.5M)
RP - Trevor Rosenthal (Arb 3 - $7.9M)
RP - Tyler Lyons (Arb 1 - $1.3M)
RP - Matt Bowman (Minimum)
RP - Sam Tuivailala (Minimum)

OF - Randal Grichuk (Arb 1 - $2.8M)
C - Carson Kelly (Minimum)

The Cardinals have a shade under $101M in gauranteed salaries going into the 2018 season.  Add in Tyler Lyons, Michael Wacha, and Randal Grichuk and that number is closer to $110M, which the Cardinals opened up the 2017 season with a $150M payroll.  There is reason to believe that the Cardinals payroll could expand as much as another $20M, so the Cardinals could have anywhere between $40M-$60M in payroll flexibility.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably going to be a bit out there, but here's an offseason.

Pre-Free Agency

Much to nobody's surprise, the Cardinals will non-tender Trevor Rosenthal.  With him undergoing TJS and likely missing the entire 2018 season, the Cardinals really have no reason to offer him and possibly pay him $7.9M to ride the DL.  At this point, you let him walk and if closer to the end of his recovery you want to bring him back, you consider it.  Aside from Rosenthal, the Cardinals have no reason not to offer arbitration to Tyler Lyons, Michael Wacha, and Randal Grichuk.

Likewise, it makes little sense not to offer Lance Lynn the QO.  At the very least, you get a guy you can plug in for 180+ innings at $17.4M.  We've seen crazier things, but there's little incentive in him to accept the QO.

Trades

Marlins Receive: OF Tyler O'Neill, RHP Connor Jones
Cardinals Receive: 2B Dee Gordon, RP Junichi Tazawa, RP Brad Ziegler

This one is going to be a bit of an odd move at first glance.  The Cardinals are acquiring Dee Gordon, when they already have Kolten Wong at 2B and they're taking on $16M in "deadweight".  I know everyone keeps looking at Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton, but if the Cardinals can acquire Dee Gordon they can move Kolten Wong in a separate deal.

Blue Jays Receive: 2B Kolten Wong, 3B Jedd Gyorko, OF Randal Grichuk, SP Dakota Hudson, cash (whatever San Diego owes us)
Cardinals Receive: 3B Josh Donaldson

As I mentioned, I don't think the Cardinals have any intention of moving Jack Flaherty in a deal for a rental.  That being said, I don't think the Jays are willing to move Josh Donaldson cheaply either.  The Blue Jays were 29th in WAR out of their 2B last year, and adding Kolten Wong would be an easy upgrade.  The Jays would be able to slot Jedd Gyorko into that 3B spot, and Randal Grichuk would slot into the OF.  The Jays aren't waiving the white flag, but aren't being overly competitive.  As I mentioned, Donaldson is close to $20M in surplus value and add in another ~$5M for the value of the QO, and the Cardinals need to make close to $30M in surplus value.  Kolten Wong is worth roughly $26M in surplus value.  Add in Grichuk and Hudson and this seems like a decent deal.  They could probably get a more prospect-base package, but they seem intent on being competitive.

Yankees Receive: 1B Matt Carpenter
Cardinals Receive: 3B Miguel Andujar, RHP Jorge Guzman, RHP Dillon Tate

After acquiring close to $40M in salary in the previous two deals, the Cardinals look to reload their farm system and save some salary.  With Chase Headley or Todd Frazier manning 3B right now, and Gleyber Torres the future at 3B the Yankees should be willing to listen on Andujar.  The Cardinals get a potential future starting 3B if Josh Donaldson walks next offseason, and they add some more SP depth.

 

Signings

Sign Jake Arrieta to a 5 year, $165M deal

The Cardinals take a page out of the the Cubs playbook, and hurt their ability to contend next year.  The Cardinals offer a higher AAV in order to shave off a year off his deal.

Re-sign Juan Nicasio to a 3 year, $15M deal

The Cardinals and Nicasio should have interest in a reunion, and the Cardinals will likely give him the inside shot to win the closer job.

 

C - Yadier Molina ($20M)
1B - Jose Martinez (Minimum)
2B - Dee Gordon ($10.5M)
SS - Paul DeJong (Minimum)
3B - Josh Donaldson (Arb 4 - $20.7M)
LF - Tommy Pham (Minimum)
CF - Dexter Fowler ($16.5M)
RF - Stephen Piscotty ($1.333M)

SP - Carlos Martinez ($11.5M)
SP - Jake Arrieta ($30M)
SP - Adam Wainwright ($19.5M)

SP - Michael Wacha (Arb 2 - $5.9M)
SP - Luke Weaver (Minimum)

RP - Juan Nicasio
RP - Brad Ziegler ($9M)
RP - Matt Bowman (Minimum)
RP - John Brebbia (Minimum)
RP - Sam Tuivalala (Minimum)

RP - Tyler Lyons ($1.3M)
RP - Brett Cecil ($6.5M)

OF - Harrison Bader (Minimum)
OF - Magnueris Sierra (Minimum)
UTIL - Aledmys Diaz (Minimum)
2B/SS - Greg Garcia (Minimum)
C - Carson Kelly (Minimum)

That puts the payroll around $155M plus the minimum salaries likely pushes them closer to $160M in payroll.

2B Dee Gordon
LF Tommy Pham
3B Josh Donaldson
SS Paul DeJong
CF Dexter Fowler
RF Stephen Piscotty
C Yadier Molina
1B Jose Martinez

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice job @CWood21 on the off-season. Really well thought out and helps us in many different capacities. Couple of my thoughts:

-Like the Dee Gordon deal, we'e taking on more financially than we would keeping Wong, but I agree with your assessment that essentially Gordon is the better of the two. Pretty similar defensively, while Gordon has better speed/base stealing ability and will hit for better average with virtually same amount of power. I like it. My question is you have us getting Tazawa in the deal as well, but I don't see him in the BP listing? Does he not make the roster? Love that we're not just standing pat on the current BP...

-As pretty much all of us have had, the Donaldson trade just needs to happen. Makes too much sense. I don't mind the package we give up at all, but I think TOR is gonna want another SP prospect (maybe not on the Flaherty level, but a guy like Alcantara or Fernandez) instead of Gyorko. They really don't need a replacement 3B for Donaldson long term, as they have Vlad Guerrero Jr. is a year or two away. They could use Gyorko as a stop gap, but I think it would depend on if they really plan to keep chugging along or retool...

-Don't see the Yankees giving up Andujar in that deal. They really don't need Carpenter, as I think they still really like Greg Bird as the 1B moving forward...

-Really like the idea of Arrieta to help anchor the staff. I know we've shown interest as well and FO likes him. Man it would be hard to give a 32 year old though a 5 year, 33 million/year deal though...

Link to post
Share on other sites

I know it's hindsight now, but I sure wish we would have signed 3B Justin Turner when he came up in FA last year. Would have given us that MOR bat we need, solidified the 3B spot and would have only cost us money, not the prospects we're likely going to have to deal now...

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I know it's hindsight now, but I sure wish we would have signed 3B Justin Turner when he came up in FA last year. Would have given us that MOR bat we need, solidified the 3B spot and would have only cost us money, not the prospects we're likely going to have to deal now...

I believe we attempted. He just wasnt really interested in going anywhere but LA

I still wish we would have paid Josh Reddick rather than Dexter Fowler.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

I believe we attempted. He just wasnt really interested in going anywhere but LA

I still wish we would have paid Josh Reddick rather than Dexter Fowler.

Pretty sure we never extended an offer, but I agree he likely wouldn't have gone anywhere else than LA (as he's a SoCal guy) unless they low-balled him...

Still would have been nice though lol...

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...