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The STL Cardinals Thread - Is It The Offseason Yet?


CWood21

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Mike Leake might not have offered the upside, but he was a hell of a lot more likely to stay healthy.  Prior to coming to St. Louis, he had thrown at least 160 IP in 5 straight seasons.  He threw at least 160 IP in 9 straight seasons.  Steven Matz has only thrown 160 IP in 1 season (2019), and he's only gotten over the 100 IP mark in 5 of his 8 big league seasons (excluding  2015).  Maybe Matz can be what Andrew Miller turned into when the Yankees had him in their bullpen.  But I'm pretty confident that he's not an impact SP.

This isn't the same MLB though, which is why I said it's not an apples/apples reference. Back in 2016 (and before that) there was a high premium placed innings by SP's. Guys who could go 180+ innings and make nearly every start were valued around the league. That is exactly why Leake got because he was that exact guy.

The premium on innings has subsided. They still have value, but not nearly the same. A lot of teams value swing/miss a lot more. It's the reason you see a guy like Luis Severino (who has thrown 200 innings combined in the last 5 years) still be able to get a $13M deal even coming off his worst season as a pro and another injury. It's because of his potential and swing/miss ability.  

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2 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

We should hopefully still get a really nice addition with the 7th pick. It's a heck of a lot better than what we normally draft. 

Most definitely. Like @CWood21 said, all probability was we would end up somewhere between 5-7 with the odds. There is always one or two teams (this year it was Cincy) that have a big jump or fall and then everyone else slots into that expected range. 

 

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4 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Most definitely. Like @CWood21 said, all probability was we would end up somewhere between 5-7 with the odds. There is always one or two teams (this year it was Cincy) that have a big jump or fall and then everyone else slots into that expected range. 

Just to put things into perspective, the 7th overall pick last year had $6.275M.  The Cardinals total bonus pool last year was $6.375M combined.  They probably lost about ~$2M in bonus pool money with the signing of Sonny Gray, but I think unless the Cardinals have someone who is a no brainer at 7 that they likely try and sign someone under slot (but still really good) at 7 and then spread the money in Rounds 3-5 to a few bonus babies.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

So…a bag of potato chips?  Stale ones at that.

Victor Santos looks like an organization arm at best.  Missed the entire '23 season with injury, and his stuff is underwhelming.  Appears to throw strikes consistently.  Fastball in the low 90s, probably more of a sinker.  Seems to have an inconsistent slider.  Maybe best case Matt Bowman without the severe groundball tendencies.  Robertson is a bit more promising, although nothing more than a relief arm.  Originally drafted by the Dodgers, but traded to Boston last season.  Fastball in the mid 90s with some movement on it.  Should be at least above-average.  Changeup pairs well when control is there, but that's inconsistent.  Slider isn't very good, probably isn't anything more than a show-me pitch.

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Please give me Yamamoto vs Otani for the opener.

We have the money. We've had some decent moves, but nothing that makes me feel good after that disaster of a season we just had. If we just missed the division or something? Sure, but we need more if we want to be a contender. 

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13 hours ago, JonStark said:

Please give me Yamamoto vs Otani for the opener.

We have the money. We've had some decent moves, but nothing that makes me feel good after that disaster of a season we just had. If we just missed the division or something? Sure, but we need more if we want to be a contender. 

There's 0% chance the Cardinals sign Yamamoto.  Might as well make peace with it now.

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