Jump to content
CWood21

The STL Cardinals Thread - Offseason

Recommended Posts

You have to give credit to Carson Kelly for forcing the issue.  His bat has come a LONG way in the last year and a half forcing himself into the big league roster.  At what point do you add him to the big league roster?  And how much PT do you actually give him when you promote him for good?  I've been pretty vocal about my belief about leaving him in Memphis for the entire season, but the discussion needs to be had.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

The Giants are showing the “most interest” because Mish says there is a belief that Stanton “may be willing to waive” his no-trade clause. The Cardinals also “checked in,” according to Mish, because Stanton does not want to be part of a rebuilding franchise and only “prefers to stay if team stays together.”

Link

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just got signed up. Liking what I'm seeing so far. 

As for Kelly, I'd love to see him up, but until we slide Molina to First, which means we are shuffling Carpenter, it's just not going to happen

Edited by StLunatic88

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

As for Kelly, I'd love to see him up, but until we slide Molina to First, which means we are shuffling Carpenter, it's just not going to happen

I really do wonder what is in store for Carpenter.  At some point, Molina is going to slide to 1B full-time and they still have Kolten Wong under contract.  That means move him back to 3rd base, where he was bad defensively or shift him to LF which means they're sitting Pham or Fowler or Piscotty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

I really do wonder what is in store for Carpenter.  At some point, Molina is going to slide to 1B full-time and they still have Kolten Wong under contract.  That means move him back to 3rd base, where he was bad defensively or shift him to LF which means they're sitting Pham or Fowler or Piscotty.

Are the Cards really going to do that?  His bat really only plays at C anymore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

Are the Cards really going to do that?  His bat really only plays at C anymore.

At some point, you'd have to figure that's the plan.  He's got 3 years, $60M after this year and at this point in his career he's a C/1B only so if you want to add Carson Kelly in at C he's going to have to make the move to 1B.  My plan with Kelly would be for him to spend the rest of the year in Memphis as the starting C, and then bring him up next year the backup C.  In Molina's rookie season, he played in 51 games and had 151 PA.  That's kind of my expectations out of Kelly next year.  And then in 2019, the roles flip where Kelly gets the majority of the PT at C but splitting time with Molina before taking over full-time in 2020.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

At some point, you'd have to figure that's the plan.  He's got 3 years, $60M after this year and at this point in his career he's a C/1B only so if you want to add Carson Kelly in at C he's going to have to make the move to 1B.  My plan with Kelly would be for him to spend the rest of the year in Memphis as the starting C, and then bring him up next year the backup C.  In Molina's rookie season, he played in 51 games and had 151 PA.  That's kind of my expectations out of Kelly next year.  And then in 2019, the roles flip where Kelly gets the majority of the PT at C but splitting time with Molina before taking over full-time in 2020.

I think you have the right idea, but I could see the timeline being a bit more accelerated. If we are out of it, I cant imagine he doesnt spend the entire month of September as the starting C. Save some time on Molina (especially after playing in the WBC this year), get him some games at 1B to start feeling it out again. Then next year, I would hope we see something like a 55/45 split at the Catcher position. That would give Yadi about 100 games at C, throw in another 40-50 at First and he has his full season,  and keeps him happy for now. That lets Kelly take 70ish games behind the plate at get close to 250 at bats. Then in '19 like you said, have them flip, but I would think Yadi is nearly just the backup catcher, and only gets about 50ish games behind the plate, spending most of his time at 1B. And honestly I think we are going to be basically just eating a bad contract in 2020, not even sure he will be worth playing as a full time 1B, and we might even need a 3rd Catcher on the roster, who is actually Kelly's backup. If Yadi can provide more than that in 2020, great, but I would not be banking on it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I think you have the right idea, but I could see the timeline being a bit more accelerated. If we are out of it, I cant imagine he doesnt spend the entire month of September as the starting C. Save some time on Molina (especially after playing in the WBC this year), get him some games at 1B to start feeling it out again. Then next year, I would hope we see something like a 55/45 split at the Catcher position. That would give Yadi about 100 games at C, throw in another 40-50 at First and he has his full season,  and keeps him happy for now. That lets Kelly take 70ish games behind the plate at get close to 250 at bats. Then in '19 like you said, have them flip, but I would think Yadi is nearly just the backup catcher, and only gets about 50ish games behind the plate, spending most of his time at 1B. And honestly I think we are going to be basically just eating a bad contract in 2020, not even sure he will be worth playing as a full time 1B, and we might even need a 3rd Catcher on the roster, who is actually Kelly's backup. If Yadi can provide more than that in 2020, great, but I would not be banking on it.

I'm sure part of that is tied to where the Cardinals are in September.  If they're mathematically eliminated or pretty close to it, they're probably more inclined to give Kelly an extended look and see where he is on the developmental process.  And that probably gives us a better idea of what the timeline is with regards to him.  But I'd agree about the whole being a sunk cost in 2020.  I was really hoping the new contract would tear up this year's contract, and only tack on another two years onto the deal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just looked it up, you have to go back to 2007 for the last time the Cardinals were a sub-.500 team at this point in the season.  The Cardinals need to be sellers.  Capitalize on the market.  What do you think @StLunatic88 @holt_bruce81?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Just looked it up, you have to go back to 2007 for the last time the Cardinals were a sub-.500 team at this point in the season.  The Cardinals need to be sellers.  Capitalize on the market.  What do you think @StLunatic88 @holt_bruce81?

I said on the old forums, I dont know what that market is anymore. JD Martinez went for almost nothing, while the White Sox got a good 1st round OF prospect back, they gave up (arguably) the Top 3B on the market, and 2 really valuable BP Arms. Seems like an underwhelming return. I thought for sure they were getting Clint Fraizer for that.

The way Oh and Rosie have been pitching lately, I dont know what we could even get for them. And we have Rosenthal under control next year, its still unclear but I think we still own rights to Oh going forward, but most importantly we dont have the BP depth that we can just move them for small pieces.

I would love to get something for Lynn, but unless its a Top 100 type prospect, might as well just hang on to him and take the Comp Pick in next years draft.

 

If I were Mo, I would try and use this Deadline and sell on some guys who have control left, and let us reset our roster. Starting with whoever can fetch the best return (in relation to their value to us) between Carpenter, Wong and Gyorko. I would assume this is Gyorko, as he is just bolted onto this roster as what we got to get rid of Jon Jay. He has done well enough at 3B, but if someone would take the rest of that upcoming contract it would really help settling the roster makeup. I would also be out there seeing if you can sell high on Michael Wacha. Teams need pitchers, he has had a good month, but do you expect that to continue for a whole nother year plus? (Wouldnt hate if we sent him to Lunhow down in Houston) And in the same vein, would someone make it worth our while to ship out Tommy Pham? I like Tommy, but he isnt going to ever be one of our regulars if we are contending (due to the addition of Dexter Fowler)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said:

I said on the old forums, I dont know what that market is anymore. JD Martinez went for almost nothing, while the White Sox got a good 1st round OF prospect back, they gave up (arguably) the Top 3B on the market, and 2 really valuable BP Arms. Seems like an underwhelming return. I thought for sure they were getting Clint Fraizer for that.

The way Oh and Rosie have been pitching lately, I dont know what we could even get for them. And we have Rosenthal under control next year, its still unclear but I think we still own rights to Oh going forward, but most importantly we dont have the BP depth that we can just move them for small pieces.

I would love to get something for Lynn, but unless its a Top 100 type prospect, might as well just hang on to him and take the Comp Pick in next years draft.

The return on J.D. Martinez was really underwhelming, and I was kinda surprised the Cardinals weren't more active on that front.  You'd have to imagine the Cardinals knew what his value, and still didn't make a deal which means the Cardinals really aren't in the market for rentals.  You could probably lump Jay Bruce into that mix as well, I know his name has been brought up quite a bit.

As for the Yankees/White Sox trade, Rutherford was expendable because he wasn't in their future since he was a corner OF defensively, and didn't provide enough power for his bat to play there.  Quite frankly, I'm not sure he's more than 4th OFer unless he hits really well and can make his speed play up.  Frazier was a rental at the end of the day, and Robertson is still due quite a bit of money.  Quite frankly, relievers got overvalued at last year's deadline IMO.  Didn't think they'd get Frazier.

Oh has almost no value IMO.  He hasn't been very good, and he's an expiring contract.  For me, Rosenthal has more value than Oh.  Maybe I'm off here, but I'll take the upside with Rosenthal and the extra year of team control if I'm looking to acquire one of them.  As for Lynn, I've said his value should be something that is either equivalent to what they'd receive as compensation as a free agent or more.  That means a back-end top 100 prospect or so.  And now that Quintana has been moved, I'm not sure we're going to see more big arms get moved.  I'd imagine that other than Sonny Gray, Lynn might be one of the best arms available. 

 

1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said:

If I were Mo, I would try and use this Deadline and sell on some guys who have control left, and let us reset our roster. Starting with whoever can fetch the best return (in relation to their value to us) between Carpenter, Wong and Gyorko. I would assume this is Gyorko, as he is just bolted onto this roster as what we got to get rid of Jon Jay. He has done well enough at 3B, but if someone would take the rest of that upcoming contract it would really help settling the roster makeup. I would also be out there seeing if you can sell high on Michael Wacha. Teams need pitchers, he has had a good month, but do you expect that to continue for a whole nother year plus? (Wouldnt hate if we sent him to Lunhow down in Houston) And in the same vein, would someone make it worth our while to ship out Tommy Pham? I like Tommy, but he isnt going to ever be one of our regulars if we are contending (due to the addition of Dexter Fowler)

That's what I'm wanting to see.  Unless the Yankees are willing to throw something decent at us, I'm not sure Carpenter is going to fetch what we want in return.  I think the Cardinals would be better served by waiting until the offseason when hopefully Carp's bat has came around.  You could lump Wong in that as well.  I just think we'd be selling both of them at low points.  Gyorko is the obvious trade candidate, and the Red Sox have a clear need especially after missing out on Todd Frazier.  I don't think there is any way that we can get Rafael Devers for him (VEB suggested Devers for Rosenthal/Gyorko but that's a pipe IMO) and I'm not sure they'd move Groome for him either.  Perhaps something starting with Michael Chavis?

I'd absolutely listen to offers on Wacha, but again I'm leery that we're going to get good value for him.  And Pham probably isn't going to get moved since there isn't a track record behind him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Oh has almost no value IMO.  He hasn't been very good, and he's an expiring contract.  For me, Rosenthal has more value than Oh.  Maybe I'm off here, but I'll take the upside with Rosenthal and the extra year of team control if I'm looking to acquire one of them.  As for Lynn, I've said his value should be something that is either equivalent to what they'd receive as compensation as a free agent or more.  That means a back-end top 100 prospect or so.  And now that Quintana has been moved, I'm not sure we're going to see more big arms get moved.  I'd imagine that other than Sonny Gray, Lynn might be one of the best arms available. 

Without looking anything up myself and taking the lazy approach, what is the reason for it this year?  Did he have a pretty big drop in velo?  Dude was nails last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×