Jump to content
CWood21

The STL Cardinals Thread - Offseason

Recommended Posts

19 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I just don't understand the logic of the people who are advocating signing Alex Cobb, but are so critical of Michael Wacha.  Between the two of them, only one of their six seasons combined have they hit at least 180 IP and that was Wacha in 2015.  Alex Cobb figures to hit that mark this year, but it's still worth noting.  And I think hoping that Alex Cobb will accept a 2-3 year deal as @kgarrett12486 alluded to is wishful thinking at best.  If his agent can't fetch him a 5 year deal, he needs to fire his agent immediately.

Granted, I would have agreed. As both Wacha and Cobb's biggest derailment to their careers has been plaguing injuries seemingly every season. However, in 2017 their night and day different. Wacha has been healthy, but I just don't see the stamina for him to be a 180+ inning pitcher (which he likely won't eclipse again this year). Plus, biggest issue w/ him IMO is that he's a 2 pitch pitcher. He flashes the curve every often, but it's really just a get me over pitch and the cutter has been awful since he introduced it. It gets hammered. This is his biggest hurdle and likely the reason he struggles so bad 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. Another reason I'm such an advocate for moving him to the closer spot. He'd be perfect for that role...

That's not the case w/ Cobb. He has shown the ability to sustain throughout a season in 2017 and get through a lineup consistently. He's good at inducing the GB as well, something that our FO loves. He's on pace to throw 193 innings this year and he's averaged 6 IP his last 10 starts...

Maybe the 2 year deal is wishful thinking, but hard to tell at this point...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Definitely think they wanted to give 'more' of the young players a look and evaluate, but that wasn't the sole reason and Mo has stated this. The young guys got their chance, albeit by injury or just simply outperforming their counterpart. The team started to take off and they rode the wave. I think as the FO started to see it wasn't just a 1-2 week 'high' they felt we had a legit chance to make the playoffs and added to an area of need. I don't think the FO doesn't believe this group can't make the playoffs given their play over the last month and a half...

I guess I'm a bit more skeptical.  I mean, I saw an article the other day that the Cardinals were attempting to rebuild and contend all at once.  That's kind of an oxymoron.  I think we're seeing the youth taking advantage of their opportunity, and as a result it's translating to team success.  I mean, Harrison Bader has had 51 PA and he's already accumulated 0.6 WAR, Luke Weaver has pitched 41.2 IP and he's already accumulated 1.2 WAR, etc.  It's a perfect storm situation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/8/2017 at 6:37 PM, CWood21 said:

I just don't understand the logic of the people who are advocating signing Alex Cobb, but are so critical of Michael Wacha.  Between the two of them, only one of their six seasons combined have they hit at least 180 IP and that was Wacha in 2015.  Alex Cobb figures to hit that mark this year, but it's still worth noting.  And I think hoping that Alex Cobb will accept a 2-3 year deal as @kgarrett12486 alluded to is wishful thinking at best.  If his agent can't fetch him a 5 year deal, he needs to fire his agent immediately.

I pointed out that Cobb vs Wacha is where the question of upgrade comes in. Im not claiming this to be some obvious answer. They both have their issues. But I dont think Wacha is a Starting pitcher in the bog leagues from what he has shown over the past few years (health, lack of ability to go through a lineup twice) while I think Cobb has done a better job of that.

Again, its more likely that we are looking for a trade. But if we cant get one done, I think there needs to be a better plan than go with Weaver, Wacha, and Reyes/Flarhety as the back half of the rotation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I pointed out that Cobb vs Wacha is where the question of upgrade comes in. Im not claiming this to be some obvious answer. They both have their issues. But I dont think Wacha is a Starting pitcher in the bog leagues from what he has shown over the past few years (health, lack of ability to go through a lineup twice) while I think Cobb has done a better job of that.

Again, its more likely that we are looking for a trade. But if we cant get one done, I think there needs to be a better plan than go with Weaver, Wacha, and Reyes/Flarhety as the back half of the rotation.

It's an IP threshold concern.  I don't think the Cardinals can really afford to put two SP in the rotation that you have legitimate questions about their ability to throw 180+ IP in a given season.  One I could understand, but two is too many.  And LIS, I think Cobb is going to get a bigger deal than anyone is comfortable giving him.  I'd be surprised if he couldn't get a 5 year, $85M deal on the open market.  And if that's the case, I'd probably sooner re-sign Lance Lynn to that Jordan Zimmerman-like contract.

I haven't really dug too far into the trade market to see whose available.  The Cardinals are really in a weird spot as they probably don't want to block Flaherty/Reyes long term, and I'm assuming how Jack Flaherty pitches down the stretch could go a LONG way into determining what kind of SP they're looking to acquire.  If he struggles, they're probably looking to acquire someone on an expiring contract that they can pencil in for 180+ IP.  If he does well, they might prefer to go dumpster diving instead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

VEB just put out an article about the possibility of buying out some of Tommy Pham's arb years. What do you guys think about this? I feel like this may not be a fluke season, it just seems like it all has clicked for him including health. 

 

Granted, I thought Diaz was no fluke either. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

VEB just put out an article about the possibility of buying out some of Tommy Pham's arb years. What do you guys think about this? I feel like this may not be a fluke season, it just seems like it all has clicked for him including health. 

 

Granted, I thought Diaz was no fluke either. 

I havent even read it yet, but I cant imagine the reasoning for it? I hope this isnt a fluke, I hope the 29 year old finally put it all together and he can be an important piece for awhile. But he is still under Team Control for 2018, and his first Arbitration isnt until the 2019 season. And we are no longer a Cash Strapped organization (not that we ever really were) but if it costs us a few extra million from 2019-2021 to pay him through Arbitration, its worth it to guard yourself against a Diaz-esque fall.

Honestly I think Pham continues to get better, and will continue to make the Fowler contract look like a mistake, but I dont think we need to be buying out his Arb years to control him for his age 34 and 35 seasons.

Edited by StLunatic88
Dramatic effect

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said:

VEB just put out an article about the possibility of buying out some of Tommy Pham's arb years. What do you guys think about this? I feel like this may not be a fluke season, it just seems like it all has clicked for him including health. 

 

Granted, I thought Diaz was no fluke either. 

If it weren't for the degenerative eye disease that he has, I'd probably consider it.  But I think I'd rather shop him around see what we can get for him.  Pham is on pace to have a 5 WAR season despite not playing in April or early May.  And he's under contract for the minimum salary next year before arbitration-eligible next year.  IF you think he can repeat that 5 WAR success next year, that's close to $40M in surplus value just by that minimum salary season alone.  That could fetch a haul.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

I havent even read it yet, but I cant imagine the reasoning for it? I hope this isnt a fluke, I hope the 29 year old finally put it all together and he can be an important piece for awhile. But he is still under Team Control for 2018, and his first Arbitration isnt until the 2019 season. And we are no longer a Cash Strapped organization (not that we ever really were) but if it costs us a few extra million from 2019-2021 to pay him through Arbitration, its worth it to guard yourself against a Diaz-esque fall.

Honestly I think Pham continues to get better, and will continue to make the Fowler contract look like a mistake, but I dont think we need to be buying out his Arb years to control him for his age 34 and 35 seasons.

I think the logic was to buyout a year of FA and getting a more known cost value in his arbitration years.  This proposed deal would take him through his age 34 years old year.  I just don't see any logic in signing him to a long term deal.  He'd probably be still inclined to sign a deal a year from now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

If it weren't for the degenerative eye disease that he has, I'd probably consider it.  But I think I'd rather shop him around see what we can get for him.  Pham is on pace to have a 5 WAR season despite not playing in April or early May.  And he's under contract for the minimum salary next year before arbitration-eligible next year.  IF you think he can repeat that 5 WAR success next year, that's close to $40M in surplus value just by that minimum salary season alone.  That could fetch a haul.

Except that the other 29 teams would review the medical and would likely take the same stance regarding his eye. Plus, they might not be convinced he's more than a 1 year wonder as well...

I don't think we'd get anywhere near his value on the market...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Except that the other 29 teams would review the medical and would likely take the same stance regarding his eye. Plus, they might not be convinced he's more than a 1 year wonder as well...

I don't think we'd get anywhere near his value on the market...

LIS, he's a nearly impossible player to peg his value given his history.  But even if a team felt that he was a 5 WAR player next year, and offered no surplus value beyond that the Cardinals should be able to fetch a pretty strong package.  Maybe not a record breaking package, but still a very strong package.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

According to multiple reports out of Japan, outfielder and starting pitcher Shohei Otani will be posted this winter and play Major League Baseball in 2018.

Are we pretty  much out of the running for this? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Are we pretty  much out of the running for this? 

Probably.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Probably.

Sounds like the big-dogs are the early favorites as usual (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers)...

After missing on on Robert, I have a small shred of hope we could pursue him. He'd be the 'impact' talent we'd be looking for. He's legit as both a COF and SP...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Sounds like the big-dogs are the early favorites as usual (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers)...

After missing on on Robert, I have a small shred of hope we could pursue him. He'd be the 'impact' talent we'd be looking for. He's legit as both a COF and SP...

Given how many times we've "finished" second, I'm not overly optimistic.  But he's the guy (like Robert) that you take that gamble on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How interested would you guys be in pursuing someone like Wil Myers in the offseason? Any chance he's dealt?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×