The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

[StLunatic88]

3 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I mean I don't know if you watched, but did you see the bench? Nobody was even talking to each other...almost like they didn't even want to be there. It was embarrassing. 

It was like that all weekend in Pittsburgh too.

[StLunatic88]

As I said earlier, I think this offseason has changes coming, and most likely through trades. So looking at our trade chips, just wondering who you guys think are most untouchable to who you are fine with shipping out. 

Rank these guys, Untouchable - to - pack your bags; Alcantara, Bader, Flaherty, Kelly, O'Neill, Piscotty, Reyes, Sierra, Weaver, Wong

1. Alex Reyes - SP
2. Carson Kelly - C
3. Luke Weaver - SP
4. Kolten Wong - 2B
5. Jack Flaherty - SP
6. Tyler O'Neill - OF
7. Stephen Piscotty - OF
8. Mags Sierra - OF
9. Sandy Alcantara - SP
10. Harrison Bader - OF

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Well, with the off-season all but officially upon us now and us missing the playoffs for 2 straight years, I think changes are is store and potentially a roster overhaul...

Anyone want to throw out their thoughts/ideas as to what they'd like to see?

Josh Donaldson and Chris Archer.  But that'd cost a fortune.  We could probably get Donaldson with a Piscotty/Flaherty kind of package IMO.  Maybe we could dangle Carson Kelly at the Rays for Archer.  But that's probably not going to happen.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

As I said earlier, I think this offseason has changes coming, and most likely through trades. So looking at our trade chips, just wondering who you guys think are most untouchable to who you are fine with shipping out. 

Rank these guys, Untouchable - to - pack your bags; Alcantara, Bader, Flaherty, Kelly, O'Neill, Piscotty, Reyes, Sierra, Weaver, Wong

1. Alex Reyes - SP
2. Carson Kelly - C
3. Luke Weaver - SP
4. Kolten Wong - 2B
5. Jack Flaherty - SP
6. Tyler O'Neill - OF
7. Stephen Piscotty - OF
8. Mags Sierra - OF
9. Sandy Alcantara - SP
10. Harrison Bader - OF

Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver are really the only guys I'd argue that are off-limits in trade talks.  Reyes because of the injury, and Weaver because of his role moving forward are both impossible to deal unless the Cardinals are getting a deal that makes too much sense.  I'd put Carson Kelly, Kolten Wong, and to a lesser extent Jack Flaherty in that hard to move tier.  I suppose they could all be part of a deal, but they'd need to bring a long-term piece back and they'd have to be comfortable with that position moving forward.  IF they felt that they could move on from Kelly, they'd have to be comfortable with Andrew Knizner as a future heir to Yadi.  Same thing goes with Kolten Wong and Stephen Piscotty.  Beyond those, I think they're all available for the right price.  Just like I think they'll listen to offers on Tommy Pham.

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I mean it seriously looked like we couldn't care any less last night. Like they just want the off-season to get here 

Not that I'm happy about it, but it's hard to act the same way in the 156th game as you have in the 6th game especially when you're long shots at best to make the playoffs.  I mean, the Cardinals playoff chances are at 7.9% according to FanGraphs.  Not impossible, but highly unlikely at this point.

[holt_bruce81]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Not that I'm happy about it, but it's hard to act the same way in the 156th game as you have in the 6th game especially when you're long shots at best to make the playoffs.  I mean, the Cardinals playoff chances are at 7.9% according to FanGraphs.  Not impossible, but highly unlikely at this point.

That's complete BS man. It's essentially a playoff game for them and they act like they don't even care. I couldn't care les about what are % chances are...I'm pretty sure back in 2011 they gave us like a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs. And I'm sure if we would of won last night and the Rockies lost that 7.9% goes up significantly. 

[kgarrett12486]

14 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Josh Donaldson and Chris Archer.  But that'd cost a fortune.  We could probably get Donaldson with a Piscotty/Flaherty kind of package IMO.  Maybe we could dangle Carson Kelly at the Rays for Archer.  But that's probably not going to happen.

Add in an 8th/9th inning RP and that's my dream off-season right there...

[kgarrett12486]

14 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver are really the only guys I'd argue that are off-limits in trade talks.  Reyes because of the injury, and Weaver because of his role moving forward are both impossible to deal unless the Cardinals are getting a deal that makes too much sense.  I'd put Carson Kelly, Kolten Wong, and to a lesser extent Jack Flaherty in that hard to move tier.  I suppose they could all be part of a deal, but they'd need to bring a long-term piece back and they'd have to be comfortable with that position moving forward.  IF they felt that they could move on from Kelly, they'd have to be comfortable with Andrew Knizner as a future heir to Yadi.  Same thing goes with Kolten Wong and Stephen Piscotty.  Beyond those, I think they're all available for the right price.  Just like I think they'll listen to offers on Tommy Pham.

I'm in the same boat, basically I have it like this:

Off-limits: Alex Reyes

Hard pressed to trade, but would for a truly elite impact piece: Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly

Would trade for an impact piece: Flaherty, Sierra, etc.

[kgarrett12486]

If Mike Matheny let's Yadi Molina return at any point during this final stretch he should be fired on the spot...

Especially given that Matheny's career was essentially ended because of post concussion symptoms...

[tttmikeb]

14 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

That's complete BS man. It's essentially a playoff game for them and they act like they don't even care. I couldn't care les about what are % chances are...I'm pretty sure back in 2011 they gave us like a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs. And I'm sure if we would of won last night and the Rockies lost that 7.9% goes up significantly. 

I didn't see the game (I rarely do), but what exactly does looking like they don't care look like?  I guess I have a hard time visualizing that for baseball.  The other major sports have much more movement, activity, and action.  It's easier to see a non-chalant or uninterested attitude.  I'm not sure that applies to baseball.  Excitement & intensity & fire are more necessary for other sports, and not necessarily helpful in baseball.  This is a team made up of veterans that we know love this team and what we know are fighters, along with young players who have been playing well and fighting hard for W's all year (in AAA & MLB).  I have a hard time believing that they genuinely didn't care about a game.  

I wonder if a more likely explanation is that they were disheartened by the Cubs jumping out to an early lead, and that affected their psyche for the whole game.  Again, I didn't see it.  I don't know.  I'm frustrated too that this team hasn't been better, especially against the Cubs, and especially in a game that we really needed.  I just have a hard time buying into them not caring.

[StLunatic88]

16 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Josh Donaldson and Chris Archer.  But that'd cost a fortune.  We could probably get Donaldson with a Piscotty/Flaherty kind of package IMO.  Maybe we could dangle Carson Kelly at the Rays for Archer.  But that's probably not going to happen.

That would be the top of my list for wants this offseason. And honestly I to me Piscotty/Wong/Flaherty are not show stoppers for either one of those guys. When we start talking Carson Kelly, I hold him in very high regard, but if Mo/Matheny dont have the balls to tell Yadi that he isnt the every day Catcher for the next 3 years, then why hang onto him?

Last night I was thinking about both the Jays and the Rays. Do you think we could swing a package to fill both our needs with one of those teams? I feel like most packages we would put together seprately would be too much for just Donaldson and Archer in 2 deals, but if we add those packages together could we swing a Donaldson/Stroman or Archer/Longoria deal?

[kgarrett12486]

2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

That would be the top of my list for wants this offseason. And honestly I to me Piscotty/Wong/Flaherty are not show stoppers for either one of those guys. When we start talking Carson Kelly, I hold him in very high regard, but if Mo/Matheny dont have the balls to tell Yadi that he isnt the every day Catcher for the next 3 years, then why hang onto him?

Last night I was thinking about both the Jays and the Rays. Do you think we could swing a package to fill both our needs with one of those teams? I feel like most packages we would put together seprately would be too much for just Donaldson and Archer in 2 deals, but if we add those packages together could we swing a Donaldson/Stroman or Archer/Longoria deal?

Honestly, I don't think we could sway Stroman from the Jays. There is a good chance they may not even want to move Donaldson. They could easily be a competitive team and content next season with a good off-season. They need more young, MLB ready SP, so I doubt they want to subtract their young, cost controlled ace...

Rays could be a different story though, they could be in rebuild mode...

[StLunatic88]

9 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Honestly, I don't think we could sway Stroman from the Jays. There is a good chance they may not even want to move Donaldson. They could easily be a competitive team and content next season with a good off-season. They need more young, MLB ready SP, so I doubt they want to subtract their young, cost controlled ace...

Rays could be a different story though, they could be in rebuild mode...

Ive seen alot of people around here say this, but just about every MLB pundit has been on the path that the Jays need  to reload, and that they know it too. I know Stroman is the biggest pipe-dream of what I threw out there, but I feel like it is something we would try. 

And to be clear, he is not really Cost Controlled anymore. He is now hitting his second year (out of 4) of Arbitration. He isnt going to be that cheap moving forward. Especially not when you compare him to Chris Archer, who truly is cost controlled for the next 4 years at a very cheap price.

 

So hypothetically, what would you be willing to give up if the package were Chris Archer/Evan Longoria?

 

[kgarrett12486]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

Ive seen alot of people around here say this, but just about every MLB pundit has been on the path that the Jays need  to reload, and that they know it too. I know Stroman is the biggest pipe-dream of what I threw out there, but I feel like it is something we would try. 

And to be clear, he is not really Cost Controlled anymore. He is now hitting his second year (out of 4) of Arbitration. He isnt going to be that cheap moving forward. Especially not when you compare him to Chris Archer, who truly is cost controlled for the next 4 years at a very cheap price.

 

So hypothetically, what would you be willing to give up if the package were Chris Archer/Evan Longoria?

1] Even in arbitration w/ the raises he'll be significantly cheaper than 80% of ace level/#1 type pitchers that aren't on a rookie deal. Two years of cost control (albeit even with him getting a bump every year) is still extremely valuable

2] I think it would cost a Kelly, Sierra, Flaherty package

[StLunatic88]

3 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

1] Even in arbitration w/ the raises he'll be significantly cheaper than 80% of ace level/#1 type pitchers that aren't on a rookie deal. Two years of cost control (albeit even with him getting a bump every year) is still extremely valuable

2] I think it would cost a Kelly, Sierra, Flaherty package

He will be cheaper, but not for long. But again he has THREE more years of arbitration and already won his first case for $3.4 m this year. I would imagine quite the bump is coming after this season he just had. And I doubt he is going to be all that much of a deal once Arb year 4 comes up (2020). Not to mention if he actually has to go through 4 full Arb offseasons with the Jays, hes not sticking around after that. So then you are looking at losing him for next to nothing if you are the Jays. Again, this is all projection, and he would cost alot.

 

If thats all it took for a Heart of the Order 3B bat AND a Top of the Rotation Starter, teams would be jumping all over that (Namely the Yankees). Id say you are severely underestimating the value of that Archer contract.

My first blush guess would think it starts with Kelly, Flaherty, Piscotty. And still needs another arm and bat.