The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

[StLunatic88]

8 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

He reminds me Matt Holliday. He probably shouldn't be your best hitter, but he's an elite #2 power guy. He'll drive in a bunch of runs. 

Not a bad comp, as far as role in the lineup goes. Im sure many will have an issue with you comparing him to Holiday, but it seems fair to me

I just go back to the idea that we worked so long and hard to find and aquire his power bat, that just letting him walk, because we have some prospects we are excited about, seems like a huge mistake.

[MOSteelers56]

43 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Not a bad comp, as far as role in the lineup goes. Im sure many will have an issue with you comparing him to Holiday, but it seems fair to me

I just go back to the idea that we worked so long and hard to find and aquire his power bat, that just letting him walk, because we have some prospects we are excited about, seems like a huge mistake.

Good point. I mean, O'Neil could become Ozuna, he could be better, or he could be much worse. May as well go with the guy you know. Also, Ozuna seems to be interested in coming back and O'Neil could maybe be part of a package for an elite player. I just worry about the OF logjam. We need room for Dylan Carlson soon. Unfortunately he'll be blocked for awhile with Ozuna and Fowler in the corners. 

[StLunatic88]

2 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

Unfortunately he'll be blocked for awhile with Ozuna and Fowler in the corners.

That is a big factor. But a couple of things to consider (the way I see it of course)

First, I think we only have one of Fowler/Ozuna going forward. If we feel like we can actually move Fowlers money (and both sides want to ofcousrse) Thats when we would sign Ozuna Long term. Other than that, I think we try to go short term (1 year even) with Ozuna.

I think many fans, especially here, are getting ahead of themselves with Carlson. I expect he will be great, and he is flying up the Minors. BUT he isnt ready. I can just about guarantee he wont start the 2020 season on the Big League club (clock reasons as discussed before) and If we already have Fowler/O'Neill/Bader/Thomas/Arozerena/Martinez all fighting for the OF in Spring Training, (thats not even mentioning the Ozuna/Edman/Carpenter possibilities) there is just no reason to rush Carlson up. Id be surprised if we see him before the ASB 2020, and if we are playing well, and dont have a major Starting OF injury, I could easily see us never getting him in 2020 at all.

The longer we push back his clock, the longer we get to keep him under team control, Im not saying thats the most ethical thing, but it happens in Baseball every single year. Honestly, unless he is just so undeniable, and the options in the Major are so bad that it forces the hand, I think we may be waiting awhile.

[holt_bruce81]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

That is a big factor. But a couple of things to consider (the way I see it of course)

First, I think we only have one of Fowler/Ozuna going forward. If we feel like we can actually move Fowlers money (and both sides want to ofcousrse) Thats when we would sign Ozuna Long term. Other than that, I think we try to go short term (1 year even) with Ozuna.

I think many fans, especially here, are getting ahead of themselves with Carlson. I expect he will be great, and he is flying up the Minors. BUT he isnt ready. I can just about guarantee he wont start the 2020 season on the Big League club (clock reasons as discussed before) and If we already have Fowler/O'Neill/Bader/Thomas/Arozerena/Martinez all fighting for the OF in Spring Training, (thats not even mentioning the Ozuna/Edman/Carpenter possibilities) there is just no reason to rush Carlson up. Id be surprised if we see him before the ASB 2020, and if we are playing well, and dont have a major Starting OF injury, I could easily see us never getting him in 2020 at all.

The longer we push back his clock, the longer we get to keep him under team control, Im not saying thats the most ethical thing, but it happens in Baseball every single year. Honestly, unless he is just so undeniable, and the options in the Major are so bad that it forces the hand, I think we may be waiting awhile.

I don't think Carlson will be up here next year either, but I think he's ready. 

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I just go back to the idea that we worked so long and hard to find and aquire his power bat, that just letting him walk, because we have some prospects we are excited about, seems like a huge mistake.

That's fine.  But how much are you willing to pay for a guy who has been a 3ish WAR player since the Cardinals have acquired him?  At what point do the Cardinals walk away from the discussion?  I think he's looking at Lorenzo Cain-like offer.  Something like 5 years, $80M.  Are you willing to do that?

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

That's fine.  But how much are you willing to pay for a guy who has been a 3ish WAR player since the Cardinals have acquired him?  At what point do the Cardinals walk away from the discussion?  I think he's looking at Lorenzo Cain-like offer.  Something like 5 years, $80M.  Are you willing to do that?

Id love to know where you are getting this idea that Ozuna is looking to break the bank here. Im not saying that he shouldnt be paid, but he is often talked about as a question mark to even receive a Qualifying Offer. If he was expected to get that deal, then he would be an absolute no brainer to receive one.

I think we will, because short term big money is always fine with me. But the fact that most neutral conversations say its a question mark indicate to me that they dont think he is going to get an AAV anywhere close to that ~$18m QO

He went away from Boras, so if anything that is a plus for having a reasonable negotiation

Edited August 27, 2019 by StLunatic88

[CWood21]

6 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Id love to know where you are getting this idea that Ozuna is looking to break the bank here. Im not saying that he shouldnt be paid, but he is often talked about as a question mark to even receive a Qualifying Offer. If he was expected to get that deal, then he would be an absolute no brainer to receive one.

I think we will, because short term big money is always fine with me. But the fact that most neutral conversations say its a question mark indicate to me that they dont think he is going to get an AAV anywhere close to that ~$18m QO

He went away from Boras, so if anything that is a plus for having a reasonable negotiation

Why do you think he's going to settle for a modest deal?  He will be coming off of one of his most productive seasons outside of the 2017 season, and you're suggesting that Ozuna should take a 1 year deal.  That's non-sensical.  There's literally ZERO incentive for him to not try and maximize his career earnings.  And no, replacing Scott Boras as his agent doesn't indicate that he's not looking to maximize his career earnings.  Marcell Ozuna will easily get a QO.

[StLunatic88]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Why do you think he's going to settle for a modest deal?  He will be coming off of one of his most productive seasons outside of the 2017 season, and you're suggesting that Ozuna should take a 1 year deal.  That's non-sensical.  There's literally ZERO incentive for him to not try and maximize his career earnings.  And no, replacing Scott Boras as his agent doesn't indicate that he's not looking to maximize his career earnings.  Marcell Ozuna will easily get a QO.

You are not comprehending what Im saying at all.

A) I have never said that Ozuna should be taking a 1 year deal, I have said I would gladly give him high dollar value for a short term deal, thats just a standard principal I have (and so does most of Major League baseball, Ill explain in a min) 

B) To say "Most productive OTHER than 2017" is extremely misleading, because 2017 is now a huge outlier, and everyone knows that. He is currently playing like a less than 30/100 guy, who is putting up half the WAR from that pinnacle season. So being 2 years removed, he will no longer be paid on that production (like he was in Arbitration) and will be in line with the player that he has been for 2 straight seasons, And on top of that, potentially a Defensive Liability pretty soon.

C) all I was pointing out with Boras being gone is that he now has a reasonable representative at the bargaining table, not the BS that Boras constantly pulls with his guys (i.e. promising the moon, and waiting forever to squeeze every last dollar out of a deal because he cant deliver what he promised) And on top of that, Ozuna has already given ground saying he would like to stay here. You can say it doesnt matter, but all of those things matter in negotiations.

D) You and the Spotrac predictions (which have been way off, and are using the projections from his 2017 season to calculate) that youve cited are the only times Ive seen Ozuna noted as an easy QO candidate. Most end up landing on yes, but its a question.

 

Now back to my earlier point, Teams will give Higher Dollar on shorter term contracts. Jon Jay got $8m but only for 1 year. Looking at Outfielders specifically (minus Harper, because that is a generational talent that is not the same as your normal free agent) over the past two offseasons, only 2 guys have gotten deals longer than 3 years. That would be the aforementioned Lorenzo Cain and AJ Pollack. And while Cain cashed in, Pollack only got an AAV of $12m. If the years are more important, youre going to sacrifice on the AAV. If you want to tout the high dollar value, youre going to go on short years. Cain was coming off four seasons where he averaged 5+ WAR (the lowest being 3) plus he was arguably the best defensive CF, that is such a better resume than what Ozuna has going into his Free Agency.

If we expand the definition of "long term" to include those 3 year deals (which is really pushing it) that list only expands by 2 players. Jay Bruce, who had a $13m AAV, and Andrew McCutchen who got $16.6m AAV (sacrificed years for the dollars) and was still a defensive plus when he signed.

You have to go back 3 offseasons to where a significant amount of OFs got paid (total contracts of $8m+), cutting that list off at Jon Jay. 9 guys got paid, in 2017, but of that group, most of them had 1 or 2 year deals, and those that got long term (Cespedes, Fowler. Desmond and Reddick) have largely been bad deals. As we saw this offseason, teanms are not giving out those deals anymore unless you are a Transcendent Talent, under the age of 27, or a pitcher without questions.

Just look at those deals, Pollack is still too early to tell. Ill call Cain a good signing (but he has already started the down turn and will be in his mid 30s for the rest of his deal). Bruce was a bad signing, Cutch has been a mixed bag, and just about everyone for 2017 wasnt worth it. Teams are changing the way they give out money, and players just arent getting those deals anymore.

 

When it comes down to it, I think we should keep Ozuna, and figure out the rest of the OF later. And he should get paid for what he is (the market determines what his Maximization is, not him) which is somewhere between What Josh Reddick got in 2017 and AJ Pollock got this past year. Because when you look at their production, they line up much better than anything that Lorenzo Cain gave going into Free Agency.

4 year - $58m ($14.5M AAV) or 5 year $65m ($13m AAV) Is where Ozuna's numbers put him, and would be what I consider agreeable deals for him to stay.

 

[holt_bruce81]

I'd be all over it if we could get Ozuna for less than $15 million a year, I really don't see that happening though. I think he gets somewhere between $18-$20 per. 

[StLunatic88]

11 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I'd be all over it if we could get Ozuna for less than $15 million a year, I really don't see that happening though. I think he gets somewhere between $18-$20 per. 

Im gong to continue to point this out; there are currently only 33-ish Hitters who have a Contract AAV of $18m or more. Only 10 Outfielders have AAVs of $18m or more. And around 1/3 of both those groups are bad to atrocious contracts now.

If we had to stretch to 16 per on the 4 year deal, then Id still do it, but if some team is going to be crazy and pay him $18m for a guy who isnt a for sure Top 30 hitter, and almost no argument could be made as a Top 10 OF, then let them drop the anchor around there neck.But I see teams being much smarter with their money the past few offseasons, and just dont see a team out there (especially a contender) jumping to give Ozuna a 70-80-90 million dollar contract. Especially after we slap a QO on him.

[holt_bruce81]

Let’s get some of that offense from yesterday back. 3 double plays in the first 4 innings tonight....

[ttitansfan4life]

Carpenter... SMH

Way to ruin an inning.

Edited August 28, 2019 by ttitansfan4life

[CWood21]

20 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

A) I have never said that Ozuna should be taking a 1 year deal, I have said I would gladly give him high dollar value for a short term deal, thats just a standard principal I have (and so does most of Major League baseball, Ill explain in a min)

What makes you think he would take a short term deal when he's been playing year-by-year with arbitration?  Last year, Andrew McCutchen came off a worse year and I believe 3 years older when he hit FA still got a 3 year, $50M deal from the Phillies.  The notion that Ozuna would even consider a 1 or 2 year deal is ridiculous.  The McCutchen deal is a floor for him.  And he's easily going to surpass that.

21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

B) To say "Most productive OTHER than 2017" is extremely misleading, because 2017 is now a huge outlier, and everyone knows that. He is currently playing like a less than 30/100 guy, who is putting up half the WAR from that pinnacle season. So being 2 years removed, he will no longer be paid on that production (like he was in Arbitration) and will be in line with the player that he has been for 2 straight seasons, And on top of that, potentially a Defensive Liability pretty soon.

If he was producing like he did in 2017, we'd be talking about him getting a 6 or 7 year deal.  But he's not, so he's probably settling for a 4 or 5 year deal at a lesser AAV.  Look at what the OFers in recent years have gotten (Jay Bruce, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Brantley, etc.).  That's his floor for salary.  Not his upside.  He's been better than those OFers, and more importantly he's hitting FA at a younger age.  Teams are more willing to go more years when you're younger.  They're not going to hand out 8 year contracts to guys in their early 30s.

21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

D) You and the Spotrac predictions (which have been way off, and are using the projections from his 2017 season to calculate) that youve cited are the only times Ive seen Ozuna noted as an easy QO candidate. Most end up landing on yes, but its a question.

You just proposed giving Ozuna a high AAV, short-term deal.  Is the QO not that?  Is that not just a big 1 year, ~$18M deal?  That's exactly what you've been proposing, and now you're backtracking on it.  Why?  Do you not want Ozuna back, or are you under the impression that Ozuna is going to settle for some modest 2 year, $30M deal?  There's no question about whether or not should Ozuna get a QO.  I can't believe we're having this discussion.

21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Now back to my earlier point, Teams will give Higher Dollar on shorter term contracts. Jon Jay got $8m but only for 1 year. Looking at Outfielders specifically (minus Harper, because that is a generational talent that is not the same as your normal free agent) over the past two offseasons, only 2 guys have gotten deals longer than 3 years. That would be the aforementioned Lorenzo Cain and AJ Pollack. And while Cain cashed in, Pollack only got an AAV of $12m. If the years are more important, youre going to sacrifice on the AAV. If you want to tout the high dollar value, youre going to go on short years. Cain was coming off four seasons where he averaged 5+ WAR (the lowest being 3) plus he was arguably the best defensive CF, that is such a better resume than what Ozuna has going into his Free Agency.

First off, Jon Jay is an awful example if you're trying to justify a high AAV.  He was coming off a 0.8 WAR season with the Cubs, and signed with the White Sox.  Jay probably had a 2 or 3 year deal with a lower AAV, but a 1 year deal to try and recoup value could probably get him in line for another modest long-term deal.  Lorenzo Cain was coming off a 4.2 WAR season where he posted a 115 wRC+.  Defensive metrics had him at best as an average defender in CF both by DRS and UZR/150, so you'd assume he'd be a plus defender in LF if he were moved there.  AJ Pollock was coming off a 2.5 WAR season with a 110 wRC+ and an average defender in CF, that probably projects as a plus defender in LF.  Meanwhile, Marcell Ozuna is posting a 2.8 WAR season with a ~month left to play and a 125 wRC+.  He's an exponentially better hitter than those two.  That's the difference.  Teams are going to pay for hitting.

21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

If we expand the definition of "long term" to include those 3 year deals (which is really pushing it) that list only expands by 2 players. Jay Bruce, who had a $13m AAV, and Andrew McCutchen who got $16.6m AAV (sacrificed years for the dollars) and was still a defensive plus when he signed.

McCutchen hasn't been a plus defender since much earlier in his career.  He was a mediocre defender in CF for most of the latter part of his career with the Pirates.  That was a guy who should have been moved into the corner OF a LONG time prior.  Ironically, 2018 was the first time he posted a positive DRS and/or a UZR/150 north of -1.0 since 2013. The notion that McCutchen was a great defender needs to die.  Jay Bruce signed a 3 year, $39M deal coming off a 2.6 WAR season with 118 wRC+.  The problem was his track record was mediocre.  The previous year was 0.3 WAR and 111 wRC+ and the year before that was 0.2 WAR and 93 wRC+.  For 2 of the previous 3 seasons, he posted a sub-100 wRC+.  Jay Bruce sucks.

21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

You have to go back 3 offseasons to where a significant amount of OFs got paid (total contracts of $8m+), cutting that list off at Jon Jay. 9 guys got paid, in 2017, but of that group, most of them had 1 or 2 year deals, and those that got long term (Cespedes, Fowler. Desmond and Reddick) have largely been bad deals. As we saw this offseason, teanms are not giving out those deals anymore unless you are a Transcendent Talent, under the age of 27, or a pitcher without questions.

Just look at those deals, Pollack is still too early to tell. Ill call Cain a good signing (but he has already started the down turn and will be in his mid 30s for the rest of his deal). Bruce was a bad signing, Cutch has been a mixed bag, and just about everyone for 2017 wasnt worth it. Teams are changing the way they give out money, and players just arent getting those deals anymore.

Now you're trying to mix two arguments and present it as one.  Nobody is arguing whether or not it's a good deal to make those offers.  We're arguing what is Ozuna going to get ont he open market.

21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

When it comes down to it, I think we should keep Ozuna, and figure out the rest of the OF later. And he should get paid for what he is (the market determines what his Maximization is, not him) which is somewhere between What Josh Reddick got in 2017 and AJ Pollock got this past year. Because when you look at their production, they line up much better than anything that Lorenzo Cain gave going into Free Agency.

4 year - $58m ($14.5M AAV) or 5 year $65m ($13m AAV) Is where Ozuna's numbers put him, and would be what I consider agreeable deals for him to stay.

Except for that fact that Marcell Ozuna is the best bat to come available of the guys you've mentioned.  Pollock and Cain were more defensive/speed CF types with some pop in their bat.  Jay Bruce is the "best" pure bat, and he was mediocre.  If Ozuna can't easily cost more than Bruce, he deserves to fire his agent.  The 5 year, $65M proposal puts him on the same AAV as Jay Bruce.  That'd be insulting if I were Ozuna's agent. Bump that up a bit, and maybe I'd consider it.

[StLunatic88]

46 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

What makes you think he would take a short term deal when he's been playing year-by-year with arbitration?

You continue to argue against yourself, because these are things that I have not said

[kgarrett12486]

Love that we've essentially destroyed Brewers Hope's of winning the division with the series win last week and this week...