The STL Cardinals Thread - Welcome to STL JJ!

[StLunatic88]

Alright, season has been over for a few months now so I have been thinking about how I would attack this offseason, all things considered. This is going to be a long one, so I get that most of you wont read it all, Ill try to Highlight the moves, but overall just know, Im hitting the reset button.

The Payroll

As weve been talking about a bit on here, the issue the Cardinals are facing is the Bally Sports contract issue. I have a feeling that it is going to impact the 2025 payroll way more than we are expecting, and if that is the case, then I am going to completely bite the bullet and take a total reset. But I would also come out and be totally transparent with the fanbase about it. This will start to tip my hand but thats ok; we were running at a $176m adjusted payroll, but we were shelling out north of $190m which is wild to think about for a middling team who is up against a TV Contract dispute. With the expectations we had going into 2024, Id assume we were over budget, and so its going to look drastic when we completely slash payroll for 2025, BUT I would be doing it so we can make it through the Bally's mess, and be able to push the payroll back up in 2026 even if the league process is still going. So the 2025 Payroll target is going to be get under $100m

The Front Office

As far as personnel goes, lets start from the Top; I recently said it, but Mo & Grisch should not be allowed to make a single meaningful decisions ever again for this organization. So let them go out there infront of Cameras and Mics to hear themselves talk the same old platitudes (dry powder and what not) but hand it all over to Chaim Bloom and let him execute the plan that we agree upon to the best of his abilities in order to audition for the GM Role going forward. I would give a list of the untouchables that I dont want traded away, and then give him the Payroll Number he needs to get under, however he wants to do it, all is fair game. I wont go into the full list, but the obvious Untouchables are part of it (Winn, Walker, Hence, Mathews) and a few guys who I know I can still sell to the fanbase (Donovan for sure, maybe Gorman or Nootbar). And then we need to make it under $100m in Adjusted Payroll. It seems drastic, thats because it is. We are making up a bit of the overage from 2024, but also banking some extra payroll to use in 2026 once we hopefully bounce back both on the field and in the checkbook. 

The Roster

Ok so we have a Must Keep list, we have the Payroll parameters, and we are clear on who is in charge of building this team for 2025, so lets lock in who is going to be holding the reigns of this experiment. And to no surprise of anyone here, its not Oli Marmol. He needed to be fired before the ASB, before the season, he shouldnt even have this job. Who knows how different this team is with Mike Schildt still in charge. But hes gone and we need to move on. So for this radical shift that this franchise is taking for 2025, going and getting the former Cardinal sweetheart Skip Schumaker just makes too much sense. Yes the fans will like it, and you can sell him, and he is the type of former player/manager that seems to be able to get good stuff out of young and not highly touted talent, but most of all its just the right fit. 

-Club Options

Now that the chain of command is in place, its time to start making roster decisions. Starting with the three Club Options for Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton. Let them all go. I got why we made these moves, they made sense for the attempt we were making for 2024, but none of them are valuable enough to what is going to have tp be a young scrappy team. 

-Impending Free Agents

Next will be the actual Free Agents hitting the Market. And in reality, there is only one guy you could even have a conversation about. That guy is not Matt Carpenter, dont let the door hit you on the way out. Im still not entirely sure why hes on this roster other than he is dirt cheap. Kitterage can find work elsewhere as well, hes been whatever, but Im not spending money on guys who no one else wants to. And the only one worth even a bit of conversation is Paul Goldschmidt, but sorry Paul its time to go our separate ways. Hes caught a bit of fire to end the season, but he looked LOST for so much of the year, and that doesnt just completely go away at this age. Plus while slashing payroll, a guy who is coming off a $26m deal isnt ideal to add back.

-Arbitration

Before we start talking about how we get the payroll down, I do want to mention the guys we have coming up on Arbitration. 7 of them I believe; Donovan, Nootbar, Gorman, Pallante, Helsley, King and Romero. Feels like all should be worth whatever their arbitration numbers are, the only one on the move to me could be Helsley, but that because as a premier Closer, he would be worth trading away as we rebuild, not as a Non-tender. Speaking of, lets look at those candidates.

-Trade Candidates

Ryan Helsley - Guy has been pretty great for us, but if you are trying to slash dollars, paying a reliver that kind of money doesnt seem too smart, especially since this is the final year of control you have over him. So would he be more valuable shipping out this offseason or closer to the ASB or Trade Deadline? Thats for Bloom to figure out and get the best value for. I would send him out in the offseason and not risk an injury, but thats just me.

Miles Mikolas - Guy has been pretty solid for us in his tenure, but he never really solidified him as a Top of the rotation guy, but hed be a really good #3 on a contender and still a reliable 2nd arm for anyone. I would expect that he is a guy who we may have to kick in some dollars in to make a return worth it for us to deal him, but thats OK  because were likely replacing him internally for 2025.

Sonny Gray - Obviously the most valuable Starter we have, but I will say Id still be hesitant to move him. Because I would be propping him up as the guy we want to rebuild this rotation around on the fly. I would make it a point of emphasis that we plan on having this ship turned around and back in contender status before Sonny's current deal is up (i.e. we want him as the leader of us as a winner) but if we get blown away, it would be hard to pass up a young package since we are clearly hitting the rest button

Steven Matz - Ive been trying to trade this guy for 2 years already, and I just dont think anyone is interested unless we are picking up probably all of his contract. Thats not beneficial to us, it would make more sense to see if he can stay healthy, and boost his value a bit before we get to the Trade Deadline and then he might be worth alittle more without eating the money, but in that scenario, at least he can eat some innings for us while we run some young arms out there.

Erik Fedde - I liked the move when we made it, it made sense. But I do think it was one made for eating innings now, but also to be traded away again at some point if we arent contending. Much like Matz, let him eat inning early in 2025 and hopefully we can flip him for more than we sent out in that deal this year.

Nolan Arenado - It was thrown out there by some last offseason, and mostly dismissed, but it does seem like those folks were right. That was probably one of his peaks of value. But I will say the contract is suddenly much friendlier, and he has pulled out of his early season nose dive, so he would still be valuable to alot of teams. He does have the NTC, but if we are hitting reset, hes not going to want to be part of that. So while he can funnel where he wants to go, we can still pay this contract for one of the best 3B of all time, we just would rather not. So we arent being raked over the coals here. But I would for sure make this move now, truely signal what we are doing this offseason

Jordan Walker - He is coming around a bit, but im still caution about him. I get why we want to keep him, but if someone came hard after him, I wouldnt fight it all that much. If he is in Cardinal Red for 2025, PLEASE put him in Left Field. He is barely an Outfielder, so trying to force him into RF while Lars Nootbar plays LF is just maddening.

Nolan Gorman - Cant trade him now, youd be selling at a real low. I think he may get the shot at 3B if we do make the Arenado move, would be interesting if that messes him up at the plate, but its still his natural position. I still believe here because of the Bat, and he may be some true power that isnt as easy to find as you would think

Lars Nootbarr - I dont think you would get enough value to make it worth the effort, but theres been alot of talk of many teams interested. We dont have the glut of OFs like we once did, so if you move him (or Walker) you would have to go out and replace them on the '25 roster. 

Wilson Contrares/Ivan Hererra - The Catching market is BLEAK this offseason. So we absolutely have to trade one of these guys. I honestly wouldnt be mad if we moved both if there was enough interest, First Im trying to move Wilson, but same with Arenado he has a NTC (again though, I doubt he wants to sit though a full rebuild) So he may fight some trades more than Arenado would, but I do trust he can get a deal done with a solid return. Especially after his most recent comments.

Trades

So those are the options I see worth enough value to even consider, but like I said nearly everyone is on the table. But then again you cant do a complete fire sale and leave the cupboard barren and all the talent 2/3 years away in the Minors, so this is what I would hope to see. (disclaimer, Im not even picking teams to send them to, so I really don’t have a clue what the actual return would be, just some thoughts on what I would be looking for)

Nolan Arenado – Hes been a great soldier while he has been here, maybe never the leader we had hoped, but until this season he was always a Top of the League type player and kept giving us hope. Its going to be crazy that hes never won a playoff game here (but did in Colorado) but that’s how badly we screwed up this roster and franchise for the past 5 years. Send him out west where he likely wants to be, but don’t just give him away either. Im sure a good number of teams would want him now that his contract is a very nice piece to have for a guy who despite a pretty bad start is still having a good year. You might be able to pull a ML Roster player out of this trade, possibly a 3B that hes replacing, maybe a Bat that plays at 1B/2B or DH, heck maybe even a pitcher if were looking at the Dodgers who have more arms than Starting Rotation slots. But reality should be a pretty highly touted prospect whos still a few years away, plus a few other throw ins that can help a big league club (Mid-rotation starter, BP arm)

Ryan Helsley – Once NA goes, its open season on the roster and Id expect a lot of teams to come running. Would it be more fortuitous to keep Helsley into the season and see if someone becomes desperate for a Closer? Possibly, but Im am going to cash in as much as we can as quickly as we can. I don’t want to risk an injury and then we lose him for nothing next offseason. He is a great closer, so he will have value, but we aren’t overhauling the Farm System for one year of a Closer. But it would stand to reason that we could find a pretty decent pitcher in return, maybe a guy with high upside, but some concerns or is still 2+ years away from the majors. Im sure after their debacle, the Orioles will be very interested, as will others.

Miles Mikolas – Still don’t know why we gave him the extension that we did, but here we are. He was not great this year, but he was an all-star in 2022, and reliable starting pitching is always a need for contenders. With the potential to extend a teams Top of the Rotation and only having to commit to one season, he will still have plenty of suitors. This is where I think we kick in some money though, and potentially sweeten the return a bit. If we toss in like $6m, it drops him out of the Top 50 SP payroll (after signings this offseason) and makes him very palatable for just about everyone. I doubt were getting an Arm close to the Majors for him, but a toolsy bat, possibly replenishing our OF depth might start here.

Wilson Contrares – Some are already saying we cant be trading him away especially not because of his comments. And yes I do agree with that IF we are trying to contend again in 2025. But in this scenario, especially with No real options in Free Agency, we have to pounce on this opportunity. Hes still a pretty highly paid C at $18m per, so we will also toss in some cash with him to really take advantage. If we toss in $6.5m for each of the next 3 seasons ($19.5 total) It drops his AAV to about $13m per season while also covering most of his ’28 buyout. Doing that, for what should be the best Catcher “on the market” should net us a pretty good bat prospect in my eyes. And with Hererra/Pages we should feel decent about our backstop for this rebuild, with some more prospects lurking.

And that’s it going into the 2025 season. Now I would have every intention of trading away both Matz and Fedde some time during the season. Honestly, if Matz doesn’t improve to start the season, Id let someone basically have him for free if they just take on the second half of this years salary (building in only half of that money into my 2025 payroll plan) so he can eat innings for him. Im not tied to many guys on this roster, but I also don’t want to sell low just to get rid of pieces. But if someone wanted to make a bid for Hererra/Fedde/Liberatore/Romero or anyone like that, Id listen.

Free Agency

There isn’t a lot of cash to be spending if you are going to be slashing payroll to under $100m, but there are some chances that I would like to take, which could pay off really well for both us and some guys who need the right situation.

Yoan Moncada 3B – We have vacated the hot corner, and while we could surely coble together something with Gorman and some of the Utility guys, I think this is the right spot to take a swing, and try to strike some gold. Yoan has been down with an Abductor injury nearly all season, and if were being honest hes been disappointing since a breakout 2019 campaign. He hit .315 with a .915 OPS and 25 HRs, but ever since hasn’t reached any of those and has been up and down. This situation, where we just say 3B is your spot, take it and go hit, might be what is needed to get him back on track. We also have the ability to pay him, where most wouldn’t, but not up front, in a heavily incentive laden deal. Some of them Likely to be Earned, some not so much. Id get him a 2 year $25m+ contract, where he has a $5m base salary for 2025 (more than some would offer him already) and then incentives that could earn him up to an additional $10m for 2025 ($1m for every 100 Plate appearances, $500k for 15-20-25-30 HRs, $500k for an All Star Appearance, $500k for a Top 15 MVP voting, $1m for winning MVP) Which also has a Club Option for 2026 for another $20m ($1m buyout). So if he does completely turn it around, we have him in the fold for the real team turn around in 2026, if not we go separate ways. In reality, if hes healthy (another factor in the incentives) he likely makes himself around $10m; $5m base + 400 PA + 20 HRs

Shane Bieber SP – In an unfortunate situation, Bieber has missed nearly the whole year. So hes likely looking at a Woodruff type deal while he still rehabs and wont be ready for the start of the season. There hasn’t been a lot of info, but there seems to be a feeling that it could be middle of the year before hes ready again. This franchise has wanted Bieber for a while now, and this might be a great way to go about acquiring him. When healthy, hes an Ace pitcher, but he hasn’t always been healthy. So in this scenario, we let him continue his rehab, and when he feels ready to get back on the mound, that’s when we likely deal away Matz/Fedde opening up room for Bieber while not taking away slots from the young arms. To make it enticing for him, we offer another 2 year $30m deal; $5m for year 1, with a $25m Mutual Option for Year 2 ($3m buy out if Bieber ops out, completing $8m for one year of service, $5m if we opt out)

I would also be on the lookout for some BP arms here and there to fill out the Pitching Staff. I wouldn’t be looking to add a high dollar guy, but some more interesting guys who may be worthy trade chips if things work out for them. Possibly a similar approach if there is another vet bat that can help at a few spots, as the bench will be pretty empty. Plus there is one final contractual move I would make this Offseason

Brendan Donovan – Im not a fan of using “The Cardinal Way” anymore, but you do have to still get your fanbase excited. So now that this guy is hitting Arbitration and has produced the past 3 seasons while finishing strong this year, its time to reward him and lock him up for a while as a cornerstone of the (Rebuilding) Franchise. Now we don’t want to end up with a DeJong situation, although I don’t think that will be an issue with Donovan being so versatile. But we overpay his 3 arbitration years a bit to get a couple of Free agent years, making the last year of the deal a club option so we can get out of needed. Lock him up to a 5 year $58m contract; Y1 - $5m, Y2 - $7m, Y3 - $11m, Y4 - $15m, Y5 - $20m ($3m Buyout). Gives about $7-10m in value for him in his Arb years.

 

Lineup

1. Masyn Winn –  SS [R]

2. Brendan Donovan – 2B [L]

3. Jordan Walker – LF [R]

4. Alec Burleson – 1B [L]

5. Yoan Moncada – 3B [S]

6. Nolan Gorman – DH [L]

7. Ivan Hererra – C [R]

8. Lars Nootbaar – RF [L]

9. Mike Siani – CF [L]

To me this is a really fun lineup. They will be up and down a lot, but we should be running and smacking the ball around the yard. A throw back to some Whitey-ball. Honestly I would be more excited to watch this all summer than I would if we brought back Goldschmidt and we ran he same stuff from this year (might go away quickly if they don’t hit) but atleast I would believe that we are trying for something. The bench would be Saggese, Scott and Pages plus another Bat (Luken Baker hasn’t earned that spot yet)

Rotation

1. Sonny Gray

2. Erik Fedde

3. Andre Pallante

4. Steven Matz

5. Michael McGreevy

So obviously Sonny is the Ace, and a true one at that for me. I will say if this turns into a disaster and we are looking like the Worst team in the league, and its clearly a longer term project, we can move him at any point. Fedde isn’t a #2, but hes the 2^nd best weve got right now. Pallante has earned a spot, but he inst entrenched. Matz is just an innings eater at this point (till he gets hurt again). And the last slot for now is up for all the young Minor League Arms, Im just assuming McGreevy right now. As expected Bieber would start on the 60-Day IL, and come back at his own pace. Then we fill out the Bull Pen with King, Romero, likely Liberatore as either a Lefty Specialist or the long man, as a mix of second chance vets and young arms from the Farm. We don’t have any roles filled (closer, set up) so for now all will have the same chances to shine when called upon.

 

That’s what I would go in to 2025 with, it would be something completely different than we have seen in St. Louis in a number of Decades, and either you can spark something fun with all these youngsters, having the true Franchise guys separating themselves. Or you bottom out, clean up your payroll, get a high draft pick, and have a completely clean slate for a new GM in 2026 with a bit of a restocked talent pool in the minors. With all the Arbitration, the deferred monies, the payouts in trades, and the few FA moves we are operating 2025 with a Starting Projected Payroll of $98m+, with the ability to shed some more in a few trades.

 

Edited Wednesday at 03:25 PM by StLunatic88

[MOSteelers56]

That's a really solid effort post, @StLunatic88

I honestly haven't been paying attention enough to form an educated opinion on the content. I think stripping it down is the right call. I'd also love to watch a bad year if it involves getting the young guys some time. I'd park Walker in the lineup and leave him there the whole year. Burly at 1B is interesting. I'd like to keep Willson, but I see the rationale of shipping him out. I'd like to see how our farm system would look after moving all the guys you suggested. 

[StLunatic88]

Thanks I appreciate it, Its obviously just one option/view point

3 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I think stripping it down is the right call.

To me, anything other than that, is a half measure. Because the bill of 20+ years of spending is coming at some point. Do you want that to happen 3 years from now if Winn/Walker are studs and we have to spend 2 seasons recalibrating our payroll? I sure dont.

5 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I'd also love to watch a bad year if it involves getting the young guys some time. I'd park Walker in the lineup and leave him there the whole year.

Letting the kids play is inherently more fun than anything else. Because you know there is hope. If you sign another Brandon Crawford/Matt Carpenter offseason, the only hope is that they do something at all. Where as the prospects are a mystery box, but atleast were trying to figure it out, not kicking the can down the road

6 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

Burly at 1B is interesting.

I dont think he is a long term solution there, he is just able to do it. Its a spot Id be fine getting one of these trade returns a shot at if thats how it works. Or if a young enough, high upside guys (like I ried with Yoan) is out there, try it out. 

8 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I'd like to keep Willson, but I see the rationale of shipping him out.

 I get it, I absolutely do. But my rationale is 2 pronged; He's already annoyed, does a full rebuild help the situation? Doubful, and if he is mouthy (probably deservedly so) then he becaose a less valuable trade piece. And the second was just how bad the Catchers market is this offseason. Some teams might be tripping over themselves to get him instead of the Free Agents out there.

But just as I said you can convince me to trade Sonny Gray, you could also convince me to keep Wilson. But then we absolutely have to trade away Hererra then.

10 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I'd like to see how our farm system would look after moving all the guys you suggested. 

It would be very exciting, and we would then have alot of opportunity for these guys to make a play for the Major League roster as well without the High Dollar guys trying up Innings/At Bats

[StLunatic88]

Pretty scathing story by Katie Woo this morning (Athletic Subscription, so I wont link it) but sounds like alot of people inside the organization know things are bad, but the people in charge have been turning a blind eye to it. And not just Mo & Co, but the DeWitt's who wont spend money in the minors on instructors & other things needed.

Seems like there may be more than just "changes" coming, and we might see this things ripped down to the studs, by necessity and not by choice (which would hurt the trade returns)

This may be a longer haul than any of us expected