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CWood21

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Just a few of my thoughts.

* This was long overdue.  The Cardinals have beens stale for years.  I'm still skeptical that we will see the turnover that we're going to need for this franchise to revamp itself, but I'm hopeful.

* I'd do right by Nolan Arenado even if it means getting a "lesser" return.  I'd imagine the Dodgers would be interested in him.  He came here to compete and he could have opted to stay in Colorado and finish his career.  I'm not expecting much in return for him, and even less if we're dealing to accommodate him which we should.

* Ryan Helsley should already have his bags packed.  His value will not be higher at the deadline, so deal him now.  Anything short of him being dealt for a strong package is just a slap in the face to the fans.

* The Cardinals absolutely need to listen to offers on Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras.  The latter two should bring back a strong prospect return, although I suspect we'll need to buy down some of Gray's contract in order to maximize his value.  I know Gray has been linked to Cincinnati, and while I don't like dealing within the division if they're the highest bidder send him there.  Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder aren't available.  I'd venture Contreras will have a pretty strong market, although the NTC probably means he's only gonna waive it to go to a contender.

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On 10/5/2024 at 9:29 AM, CWood21 said:

Just a few of my thoughts.

Who asked for those...

(I kid, I kid)

On 10/5/2024 at 9:29 AM, CWood21 said:

* This was long overdue.  The Cardinals have beens stale for years.  I'm still skeptical that we will see the turnover that we're going to need for this franchise to revamp itself, but I'm hopeful.

Its not fun to say that, but anyone who disagrees just isnt living in reality. Its probably 8 years overdue, is definitely 5 yeas overdue. These type of things just dont last as long as the Cardinals run has.

But Im not even sure I can say Im hopeful, because yes, they are completely stale, but the prominent voices are still going to be there (Mo, Oli, BD3) so can anything really change while they are still lingering? I think we all agree that we know what NEEDS to happen, but Im more than skeptical that it will right now.

On 10/5/2024 at 9:29 AM, CWood21 said:

* I'd do right by Nolan Arenado even if it means getting a "lesser" return.  I'd imagine the Dodgers would be interested in him.  He came here to compete and he could have opted to stay in Colorado and finish his career.  I'm not expecting much in return for him, and even less if we're dealing to accommodate him which we should.

Do we really need to "do right" by him? Yea he opted in, but its not like we werent paying him a massive contract? He had the option to leave and didnt. I like Nolan, but this isnt Pujols/Yadi/Waino who gave so much to this franchise and brought us championships. 

Now Im not saying send him to the White Sox, but Im not a fan of being in the business of completely kowtowing to Players. If he says "I want to be on a contender" sure that can be accommodated, or "I want to be on the West coast" that isnt too much of an issue (that opens up the Angles though) but Im not playing the game of "send me to the Dodgers". That gets ridiculous to me. 

Im not expecting to restock the Farm with Nolan, but he should return something of a use. (although if the Padres take down the Dodgers, they might get desperate)

On 10/5/2024 at 9:29 AM, CWood21 said:

* Ryan Helsley should already have his bags packed.  His value will not be higher at the deadline, so deal him now.  Anything short of him being dealt for a strong package is just a slap in the face to the fans.

With these late inning blow ups in the playoffs, his stock is only increasing

On 10/5/2024 at 9:29 AM, CWood21 said:

* The Cardinals absolutely need to listen to offers on Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras.  The latter two should bring back a strong prospect return, although I suspect we'll need to buy down some of Gray's contract in order to maximize his value.  I know Gray has been linked to Cincinnati, and while I don't like dealing within the division if they're the highest bidder send him there.  Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder aren't available.  I'd venture Contreras will have a pretty strong market, although the NTC probably means he's only gonna waive it to go to a contender.

If we are being completely honest with ourselves (which Im not sure that the organization actually is), we are not close to contending any time soon, so a few years of any of these guys isnt going to impact us by the time we are back in the mix. So send these High Dollar Vets to the highest bidder that you can. Its not like we would be sending Jordan Walker to the Pirates and he will haunt us for the next 10 years. Gray has like 3/4 years, Mikolas maybe another 1 or 2 and Contrares, while I like him, he probably only has a couple left as an actual Catching option

Also, buy down all of them in return for better packages in return. If we are looking at $100m payroll (migh even be lower honestly) put half of that toward trading these guys away and just hit rock bottom (in a payroll sense) for a reset 

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I mentioned Yoan Moncada in my offseason plan, taking a shot in talent that hasn’t preformed as expected. 

Well if Philly fans get what they want, we better be in on the ALEC Bohm market as well.

Obviously assuming we trade Arenado

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On 10/8/2024 at 9:04 AM, StLunatic88 said:

Its not fun to say that, but anyone who disagrees just isnt living in reality. Its probably 8 years overdue, is definitely 5 yeas overdue. These type of things just dont last as long as the Cardinals run has.

But Im not even sure I can say Im hopeful, because yes, they are completely stale, but the prominent voices are still going to be there (Mo, Oli, BD3) so can anything really change while they are still lingering? I think we all agree that we know what NEEDS to happen, but Im more than skeptical that it will right now.

Honestly, this felt eerily similar to the last few years of the Walt Jocketty era.  I'm still skeptical we will see the changes for the reasons you pointed out, but I'm willing to watch it unfold.

On 10/8/2024 at 9:04 AM, StLunatic88 said:

Do we really need to "do right" by him? Yea he opted in, but its not like we werent paying him a massive contract? He had the option to leave and didnt. I like Nolan, but this isnt Pujols/Yadi/Waino who gave so much to this franchise and brought us championships. 

Now Im not saying send him to the White Sox, but Im not a fan of being in the business of completely kowtowing to Players. If he says "I want to be on a contender" sure that can be accommodated, or "I want to be on the West coast" that isnt too much of an issue (that opens up the Angles though) but Im not playing the game of "send me to the Dodgers". That gets ridiculous to me. 

Im not expecting to restock the Farm with Nolan, but he should return something of a use. (although if the Padres take down the Dodgers, they might get desperate)

If we're being honest, do the Cardinals even break even on trading him?  He's still owed quite a bit of money (not including the deferred money) the Cardinals owe him, and his play is clearly declining.  I'm struggling to see much of a market for him.  Add on that he's got a full NTC, and the market probably isn't going to be very robust.  We're not competing anytime soon.  Unless a market develops more than I anticipate, I'd ask him for 2-3 destinations that he wants to get dealt to and figure out a deal with them.

On 10/8/2024 at 9:04 AM, StLunatic88 said:

With these late inning blow ups in the playoffs, his stock is only increasing

Other than Sonny Gray, I think he's our "best" trade chip.  The return on him better be strong.

On 10/8/2024 at 9:04 AM, StLunatic88 said:

If we are being completely honest with ourselves (which Im not sure that the organization actually is), we are not close to contending any time soon, so a few years of any of these guys isnt going to impact us by the time we are back in the mix. So send these High Dollar Vets to the highest bidder that you can. Its not like we would be sending Jordan Walker to the Pirates and he will haunt us for the next 10 years. Gray has like 3/4 years, Mikolas maybe another 1 or 2 and Contrares, while I like him, he probably only has a couple left as an actual Catching option

Also, buy down all of them in return for better packages in return. If we are looking at $100m payroll (migh even be lower honestly) put half of that toward trading these guys away and just hit rock bottom (in a payroll sense) for a reset 

If payroll is dropping, we're not going to eat salary.

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On 10/15/2024 at 9:01 AM, MOSteelers56 said:

How many more years of team control do we have on Helsley? I thought he could be a FA after next year. That might hurt his value if it's true. 

He's a FA after the next season.

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On 10/15/2024 at 9:01 AM, MOSteelers56 said:

How many more years of team control do we have on Helsley? I thought he could be a FA after next year. That might hurt his value if it's true. 

Viva El Birdos just did a deep dive into elite RP/CL who have been traded over the last 5-10 years and what their return was. It's suprisingly low, as most didn't even fetch a top 100 prospect. 

It also showed they tend to get more value when traded at the deadline vs. off-season (even with team control).

I think for those who think Helsley is going to bring back a haul this off-season, you might need to temper those expectations. He might have more value in a package than a stand alone deal. 

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On 10/17/2024 at 11:20 AM, kgarrett12486 said:

Viva El Birdos just did a deep dive into elite RP/CL who have been traded over the last 5-10 years and what their return was. It's suprisingly low, as most didn't even fetch a top 100 prospect. 

It also showed they tend to get more value when traded at the deadline vs. off-season (even with team control).

I think for those who think Helsley is going to bring back a haul this off-season, you might need to temper those expectations. He might have more value in a package than a stand alone deal. 

Id start by asking, is the data set comparable? From what they used, I's say no. There really isnt a Comp in any recent memory for Helsley possibly being traded in the offseason, because most teams dont trade away an All-Star closer in the offseason, especially coming off of leading the league in Saves.

I said it in my plan, and I think any reasonable person understands that we arent getting a "haul" for him, but the conclusion that a Top 100 prospect "aint happening" as they say was having a conclusion and then building a pretty flimsy argument to prop it up

Sure we may not end up with a "Top 100" prospect, but you can still get a very good return for someone who is absolutely not going to be here in 2026, and if he gets hurt between now and the trade deadline and he walks on you for absolutely nothing, and we are caught with our pants down once again.

I saw one recently from an Orioles account, suggesting they trade Povich and McDermott for Helsley. Id say 2 young arms who were both recently/still are Top 5 prospects in their system would be a pretty good return for one year of a Closer who we cant really use when we are likely going to have limited opportunities for him in 2025.

Is that the best deal? Dont know, its the best Ive seen suggested, mostly because its 2 solid dart throws at young controllable arms who have good K/9 numbers in the minors (something they had been trying to move towards). Plus thats 11 years of team control coming in for just 1 going out. If that were the deal, and those two guys do nothing but be back of the rotation starters and BP Arms for 4 season each, thats still the right trade to make, because its about the process. And spending money on Luxury positions like Closer is no longer the world that the Cardinals live in.

Now, if we could give them a package, and bump that to one of the young high upside OFs Id be very interested in that, but would Mikolas be enough even if we ate most of his contract for this year? Or if they are really going for it and put one of their Top 20 prospects on the table Id absolutely make Sonny their new ace. 

It should be an exciting offseason for the future of this franchise, but I have my doubts that they will actually go through with it.

Edited by StLunatic88
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23 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Id start by asking, is the data set comparable? From what they used, I's say no. There really isnt a Comp in any recent memory for Helsley possibly being traded in the offseason, because most teams dont trade away an All-Star closer in the offseason, especially coming off of leading the league in Saves.

I said it in my plan, and I think any reasonable person understands that we arent getting a "haul" for him, but the conclusion that a Top 100 prospect "aint happening" as they say was having a conclusion and then building a pretty flimsy argument to prop it up

Sure we may not end up with a "Top 100" prospect, but you can still get a very good return for someone who is absolutely not going to be here in 2026, and if he gets hurt between now and the trade deadline and he walks on you for absolutely nothing, and we are caught with our pants down once again.

I saw one recently from an Orioles account, suggesting they trade Povich and McDermott for Helsley. Id say 2 young arms who were both recently/still are Top 5 prospects in their system would be a pretty good return for one year of a Closer who we cant really use when we are likely going to have limited opportunities for him in 2025.

Is that the best deal? Dont know, its the best Ive seen suggested, mostly because its 2 solid dart throws at young controllable arms who have good K/9 numbers in the minors (something they had been trying to move towards). Plus thats 11 years of team control coming in for just 1 going out. If that were the deal, and those two guys do nothing but be back of the rotation starters and BP Arms for 4 season each, thats still the right trade to make, because its about the process. And spending money on Luxury positions like Closer is no longer the world that the Cardinals live in.

Now, if we could give them a package, and bump that to one of the young high upside OFs Id be very interested in that, but would Mikolas be enough even if we ate most of his contract for this year? Or if they are really going for it and put one of their Top 20 prospects on the table Id absolutely make Sonny their new ace. 

It should be an exciting offseason for the future of this franchise, but I have my doubts that they will actually go through with it.

Like you said, there really is no direct data set to make a 1-1 comparison, as these deals don't happen that often and the talent 'driver' isn't usually of this significance. With that being said though, they're using what data we have available and some of these aren't too far off. I don't think there is an issue with using this past transactions to form a likely conclusion. Maybe Helsley is the outlier of the group when he's dealt, but the 'trends' tend to point that it's more unlikely than not. I actually think they left off the most comparible deal in the 2015 offseason when the Reds dealt Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees. Chapman was coming off another all-star nod and was arguably the best closer in baseball with some control left. The Reds essentially got (2) back end/fringe top 100 guys. That can be informative for those out there who are just assuming he's going to bring back significant peices (which those people are out there, I've seen/heard it all over). 

I don't think there are many out there that don't believe the best course of action for the future benefit of the organization is to move Helsley before he becomes a FA. My point in referencing the article was the timing. To me, it seems like we missed our opportune window to maximize his value, as that would have been at the 2024 deadline based upon the data sets from the past deals. You can also make the argument there may potentially be more value in waiting for the 2025 deadline, although you risk potential injury during the course of the season. It's a fascinating deep dive.

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22 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I don't think there are many out there that don't believe the best course of action for the future benefit of the organization is to move Helsley before he becomes a FA. My point in referencing the article was the timing. To me, it seems like we missed our opportune window to maximize his value, as that would have been at the 2024 deadline based upon the data sets from the past deals. You can also make the argument there may potentially be more value in waiting for the 2025 deadline, although you risk potential injury during the course of the season. It's a fascinating deep dive.

Id argue that these playoffs have made a few very obvious suitors even more desperate for a lock down closer than they were even at the last Deadline where they thought they may already have an answer.

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1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

Id argue that these playoffs have made a few very obvious suitors even more desperate for a lock down closer than they were even at the last Deadline where they thought they may already have an answer.

IDK if that sentiment holds true IMO. You've seen teams like the Guardians, who had arguably the most elite/lockdown closer in baseball struggle in that capacity in the plaoffs, but a team like the Yankees who have an MLB cast-off emerge as one of the best clsoers during the postseason. 

It's not like Helsley has much of a post season track record for teams to draw off - and the one he does have hasn't been very good.  

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On 10/17/2024 at 11:20 AM, kgarrett12486 said:

Viva El Birdos just did a deep dive into elite RP/CL who have been traded over the last 5-10 years and what their return was. It's suprisingly low, as most didn't even fetch a top 100 prospect. 

I mean, I'm not saying I'm expecting a haul for him but they should get some long-term pieces.  I'd target a SP who is close to the ML level that probably tops outs as a MOR starter and a couple of lottery picks that were either bonus babies or former top draft picks that really haven't taken off.

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