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The STL Cardinals Thread - Wellcome Willson


CWood21
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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I view Sierra similarly to the way I view Ender Inciarte.  He's a guy whose going hit .300 or close to it, swipe some bases, and play good defense and there's value in that.  That's a 3 WAR CF.  Maybe not superstar talent level, but someone you're getting good value at and quite frankly a position that I'd give up a bit of offense for defense for.  As for Garcia, he's more a cOF for me although I think he can play a passable CF.  I don't think he has the speed that Sierra has, but he offers more power.  But I'm not sure his bat really carries him as a cOF, seems more like a career 4th OF if we're being honest.

O'Neill is really the only one who projects as a MOTB, but he's got his issues.  I don't think he's Chris Davis, but he's a guy whose going to hit .260 in the big leagues and mashing 30 HR along the way.  I'd like to see improve his pitch recognition, but to me he's probably ahead of Garcia and even Sierra in terms of future roles.  So right there, you've got Mike O'Neill in LF, Magnueris Sierra in CF, and Stephen Piscotty in RF.  We've still got Dexter Fowler under contract for another 4 years beyond this year, and you've got Harrison Bader.  That's one of the reasons why I think Bader becomes trade bait.  I'm not sure what for, but I just don't see a future in St. Louis for him much like I didn't see a future for Marco Gonzales.

First off, I don't really think we have anyone in our system that has the speed that Sierra has. His home to first is on par with Billy Hamilton. It's special. Garcia has + speed though. I think I saw Baseball America rate it as a 60/80. Second, what has O'Neil shown in the minors for you to consider him a MOTOB and what has Bader shown to make you think he has no future with us and he's trade bait? I get the feeling that he's getting traded too, I just don't understand why were valuing O'Neil more. O'neil might have a bit more raw power and a better walk-rate, but Bader is the better athlete. Better defense, better runner. 

And I know this is an unpopular opinion, but I think Piscotty's best position is going to be 1st base. Besides his arm, I really don't think he has any above average tools out in Right Field. 

Edited by holt_bruce81
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8 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

First off, I don't really think we have anyone in our system that has the speed that Sierra has. His home to first is on par with Billy Hamilton. It's special. Garcia has + speed though. I think I saw Baseball America rate it as a 60/80. Second, what has O'Neil shown in the minors for you to consider him a MOTOB and what has Bader shown to make you think he has no future with us and he's trade bait? I get the feeling that he's getting traded too, I just don't understand why were valuing O'Neil more. O'neil might have a bit more raw power and a better walk-rate, but Bader is the better athlete. Better defense, better runner. 

And I know this is an unpopular opinion, but I think Piscotty's best position is going to be 1st base. Besides his arm, I really don't think he has any above average tools out in Right Field. 

I agree about Piscotty. If we shipped Carp out(I'm not sure how I'd feel about it, but I'm leaning towards liking it), I would like to see Piscotty at 1st. That opens an OF spot for someone else and I think Piscotty will be a very good hitter in the league once he gets more comfortable. His bat can play at 1st and with his athleticism he could probably be pretty slick in the field too.

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15 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

First off, I don't really think we have anyone in our system that has the speed that Sierra has. His home to first is on par with Billy Hamilton. It's special. Garcia has + speed though. I think I saw Baseball America rate it as a 60/80. Second, what has O'Neil shown in the minors for you to consider him a MOTOB and what has Bader shown to make you think he has no future with us and he's trade bait? I get the feeling that he's getting traded too, I just don't understand why were valuing O'Neil more. O'neil might have a bit more raw power and a better walk-rate, but Bader is the better athlete. Better defense, better runner. 

And I know this is an unpopular opinion, but I think Piscotty's best position is going to be 1st base. Besides his arm, I really don't think he has any above average tools out in Right Field. 

I'm not sure he's Billy Hamilton speed, or at least it doesn't play up like Hamilton's does.  As for O'Neill, I see a .308 wOBA and 152 wRC+ at AA last year.  Obviously that was fueled a bit by a .365 BABIP that likely isn't sustainable for the type of hitter that O'Neill is.  He got off to an absolutely horrid start and his average with the Mariners' AAA affiliate was a .347 wOBA and 103 wRC+.  My guess is his numbers are somewhere in between that.  Maybe something like .365 wOBA and 125 wRC+ average.  Likewise, I don't think what Bader did at AAA is sustainable at the big leagues and I'd imagine his numbers come down.

As for Piscotty, his bat becomes lesser if he's playing 1B.  I don't have any issues with moving him there, but it needs to be mentioned as long as the power is diminished.

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4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure he's Billy Hamilton speed, or at least it doesn't play up like Hamilton's does.  As for O'Neill, I see a .308 wOBA and 152 wRC+ at AA last year.  Obviously that was fueled a bit by a .365 BABIP that likely isn't sustainable for the type of hitter that O'Neill is.  He got off to an absolutely horrid start and his average with the Mariners' AAA affiliate was a .347 wOBA and 103 wRC+.  My guess is his numbers are somewhere in between that.  Maybe something like .365 wOBA and 125 wRC+ average.  Likewise, I don't think what Bader did at AAA is sustainable at the big leagues and I'd imagine his numbers come down.

As for Piscotty, his bat becomes lesser if he's playing 1B.  I don't have any issues with moving him there, but it needs to be mentioned as long as the power is diminished.

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Sierra had six tracked runs that qualified this year, each one falling between 29.0 and 30.8 ft/sec, for an average of 29.9. Remember, 27 is average, and only a half-dozen runners have had even one sprint of 30.8 this year. In just a handful of games, Sierra showed skill that would have put him in the top three if he'd qualified, which he may well do if he returns later this year.

 

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With the exception of his 2016 season with Springfield, he's never been a huge base stealing threat.  And that year he was 31-48 (65% success rate) in stealing bases.  Just for comparison, Billy Hamtilon was 51-67 (76% success rate) in stealing bases.  That's what I was getting at.  Billy Hamilton was stealing more bases and at a success rate higher than Sierra.  That's not a knock on Sierra, just merely pointing out he's not Billy Hamilton until he can consistently use that speed.

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5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

With the exception of his 2016 season with Springfield, he's never been a huge base stealing threat.  And that year he was 31-48 (65% success rate) in stealing bases.  Just for comparison, Billy Hamtilon was 51-67 (76% success rate) in stealing bases.  That's what I was getting at.  Billy Hamilton was stealing more bases and at a success rate higher than Sierra.  That's not a knock on Sierra, just merely pointing out he's not Billy Hamilton until he can consistently use that speed.

Well I think Hamilton is obviously the better base runner right now. That's an entirely different skill. 

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Derrick Goold was just on 590...

1. He thinks Lynn is on the team beyond 7/31. 

2. Doesn't think Cards get an impact bat this week but sees moves on the way 

3. A lot of interest in Tommy Pham

4. A few teams have had their eye on Grichuk for awhile 

 

Nothing to groundbreaking there. Lynn staying would be a surprise though. 

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3 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Derrick Goold was just on 590...

1. He thinks Lynn is on the team beyond 7/31. 

2. Doesn't think Cards get an impact bat this week but sees moves on the way 

3. A lot of interest in Tommy Pham

4. A few teams have had their eye on Grichuk for awhile 

 

Nothing to groundbreaking there. Lynn staying would be a surprise though. 

Pham is pretty interesting. I think he's pretty valuable to the Cards but I'm not sure how valuable he would be to other teams.

 

Also, I love how user friendly the new forum is. 

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5 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Derrick Goold was just on 590...

1. He thinks Lynn is on the team beyond 7/31. 

2. Doesn't think Cards get an impact bat this week but sees moves on the way 

3. A lot of interest in Tommy Pham

4. A few teams have had their eye on Grichuk for awhile 

 

Nothing to groundbreaking there. Lynn staying would be a surprise though. 

Pham is pretty interesting. I think he's pretty valuable to the Cards but I'm not sure how valuable he would be to other teams.

 

Also, I love how user friendly the new forum is. 

 

::EDIT:: Then I have a double post lol

Edited by MOSteelers56
Double post. Most likely my fault.
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38 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

...

As for Piscotty, his bat becomes lesser if he's playing 1B.  I don't have any issues with moving him there, but it needs to be mentioned as long as the power is diminished.

You also have the Yadi factor to contend with. He's going to have to be at 1st Base for atleast some of 2018, alot of 2019, and probably all of 2020

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7 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Derrick Goold was just on 590...

1. He thinks Lynn is on the team beyond 7/31. 

2. Doesn't think Cards get an impact bat this week but sees moves on the way 

3. A lot of interest in Tommy Pham

4. A few teams have had their eye on Grichuk for awhile 

 

Nothing to groundbreaking there. Lynn staying would be a surprise though. 

A) That starting pitcher rental market is pretty barren, and we are close enough to a playoff spot that letting him ride out with us and grabbing the Comp pick is the better deal for the Cardinals

B) If its not an impact bat, its not that big of a move, and might be more like the Marco/O'Neill move

C) I just dont know what he could get us?

D) Im sure they do, hes a buy low, but if we can get some decent stuff for Grich or Pham, it might be worth it to start cleaning up our 4th/5th outfielder backlog

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Mayers back up...yay! another roster spot that is wasted because there's no way MM uses him. Hopefully he's just up here for today and sent back down once they announce that Weaver is being called back up. Isn't there like a 10-day rule for sending someone down and calling them back up. I think they sent Weaver down like 9 days ago. 

Also read an article over at stltoday...interesting stat...

Cardinals record with Fowler...

As starter: 31-43

Coming off the bench/DL'd: 18-8 

 

uh oh. ;)

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