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The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?


CWood21

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Looks like Gant is headed back to the pen. That’s a good move as he’s a lot better there. Now we’ll hopefully have 4 lockdown BP guys. Can any starter get to the 6th is a big question, though? We need at least 2 new starters. I’ve heard good things about a couple kids at Memphis. There’s also a slim chance we could be looking at Liberatore, but that seems to be a little quick. 

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1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said:

If Waino wants to come back for another year, we definitely would take him back right? Fan favorite and an innings eater. He kind of stinks on the road, but we could do way worse than Waino at the end of the rotation.

At this point, yes.  Other than Flaherty, he's probably the best SP on the roster.

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This team is garbage. Swept by the worthless Tigers and now getting embarrassed by the worthless Pirates. Time to start selling off this team. Trade Yadi and Waino to teams worth a damn and maybe they can go out as winners. Trade Goldy because it doesn’t look like he’s heading in the right direction. Someone needs to be fired and ASAP.

Edited by ttitansfan4life
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18 hours ago, ttitansfan4life said:

Absolutely pathetic. Blow it all up

Just out of curiosity, do you actually get anything out of following Bernie? Or do you just enjoy the statement of obvious facts with a side of snark?

 

Back to the point you made... what are we blowing up? Who are you moving? We would be trading nearly every asset we have at basically rock bottom value. 

Youre not moving Goldie or Nolan for obvious reasons. Carlson isnt either for similar reasons. Are you sending off Edman right after you just dropped Wong for free? You have 6 years of control on Sosa, but how much value does a utility man have as a trade asset? No one is touching Gant, Martinez or Bader right now. You coulndt move Mikolas even if you wanted/he wasnt hurt due to his Full No Trade. I can keep going, but most of this roster is hurt, and so is most of the money invested into it. 

Are you sending away the few reliable/young/cost controlled BP arms that we do have? We dont have the pitching depth in the high minors like in the past, so we would have to spend to replace them.

Are you willing to send off O'Neill right now? Right after he started to show what he should be for us? If you are its for minimal value due to his injuries this year

Are you going to try and move Yadi & Waino in the middle of their potential last season here? And for sure lose any chance to bring them back for next season.

Basically other than Andrew Miller (who also has a Full NTC) who are you moving this year?

 

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On 6/28/2021 at 12:11 AM, holt_bruce81 said:

The draft is like 2 weeks away. Haven't really looked into the draft to much this year, but I really think Andrew Painter, Will Bednar or Chase Petty would be great picks for the Cardinals at pick 18.

Add Gunnar Hoglund to this list. 

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This urge hits me every so often so I indulge myself and take a peak into the teams future and possible offseason plans

The two biggest free agents from this roster are obviously Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright, but we will get back to them later on. Other than them, its Andrew Miller (who should be traded away for whatever we can get before the deadline) and I guess now Wade LeBlanc, neither of which should have any bearing on the '22 season. The one thing Im never really sure about is the international signings. KK's contract is up, but do we we still own his rights? Is it Arbitration? Either way, I wouldnt be counting on him as a locked in rotation arm unless he proves something post ASB.

After that its some major Option situations. I think the reworked deal for Nolan Arenado was with the understanding that he opts in for '22 but really looks at '23 as the true Opt Out season, so unless something catastrophic happens between he and Schildt then Im assuming he is in for next year. (and Id hope the organization would be smart enough to do whatever they need to in order to keep Nolan happy)

Other than that huge one, Im hoping we stay on pace for Matt Carpenter to not hit that option trigger (not sure he could hit it even if he played every day in the second half), and its just a final $2m to get rid of him. And then, unless he comes out in the second half with 10 wins and a very sub 3.00 ERA, there should be no discussion of picking up the $17m option for Carlos Martinez, just eat the final $500k and move on.

And then we have a good chunk of Arbitration guys, and probably even some DFA situations to figure out. The biggest is obviously Jack Flaherty and his Arb-2, which with past comparisons and inflation is looking at probably $8-$10m depending on how much he ends up pitching this year. Another important Arb-2 will likely be Alex Reyes, especially if we are looking at him as a starter in '22 (as we should be) Id guess $3+ million. Also Jordan Hicks will hit Arb-2, but in another situation of not much game time, dont know how much he will pull with that arbitration, but it should be a small enough bump that he sticks around because of how good we have seen he can be. Giovanni Gallegos hits his first Arb, and should be a pretty simple case as one of our few reliable arms in the past few seasons. And ofcourse coming of an Injury (we sure do have alot of those this year, maybe thats why we are underperforming) Dakota Hudson hits his Arb-1, and is probably a similar situation we did with Reyes. In the lineup, Tyler O'neill is hitting Arb-1 as well, and might be putting together his best season as he does. Add in a Gold Glove from last year, and he probably gets more than Bader did in his first Arb season (still surprised by that $2m number).

Speaking of, you may have noticed I left off a few names from this Arbitration listing. Firstly being Harrison Bader, and his unidentified timetable to hit the field for 2021. He is the first of the Names that we might be staring down the barrel of a DFA, which would be extremely disappointing for all that has been put into him, as well as what we passed up to keep giving him chances. But with extremely minimal playing time this season, as will as a raise in Arb-2 from the $2m he got last time, I dont know what the number would have to be to make it reasonable to keep him, unless he really shows up in August/September. Maybe its a DFA and re-sign situation? The other potential DFA candidate is John Gant. He has gotten his shot this year, but really looks like he has capped out at a 4A/#6 Starter or Long reliver. And as he heads into his Arb-3 offseason, is it worth paying the increase on his $2m salary this year for that type of replacement level arm? Honestly, Id love to ship him somewhere during the ASB for some other teams potential DFA outfielder and give them an extended shot till Bader gets back, but that probably wont happen.

So lets give it a projection of about $20m in Arbitration dollars, might be more, but with many of these guys having injury shortened seasons, I feel thats pretty fair. Call it another $8m with Team Controlled assets, that will fill out the Bullpen and bench. With all that said, Im projecting a payroll of $112m before we look into Free Agency. With an OF spot to fill, a decision to make at Catcher, probably 2 Starting Pitchers needed, and likely a DH coming next year. All of that to fill with about $40-60m to do it, depending on how much they want to show Arenado that they are committed to winning with him.

 

As I mentioned earlier, We will be facing another set of big decisions regarding Yadi and Waino. Lets start with what I see as the less complicated situation; Wainwright. We have heard that he is really taking this retirement stuff year by year, and seeing how he is feeling each offseason. But if he keeps pitching like this, seems hard to believe he would hang it up, and with some injury uncertainty in the Starting rotation (Mikolas & Hudson, even stretching out Reyes to some extent) it would probably be a smart move to bring him back. Id imagine that he would be good continuing the 1 year deals in the $6-7-8m range till he calls it a career. Molina on the other hand could get sticky, especially if he catches a whole season again and keeps hitting well. He might be able to force the hand of a 2 year deal this time. But I will say, with the safety net of the DH, I would actually be more inclined to give it to him. Especially with Knizner only hitting Arb-1 through that potential contract, and Herrera only just turning 21. But maybe if he gets the 2 years, it will be slightly less on the per year salary.

If those two come back again for another summer in the sun, and then the potential reality for a full time DH, Im honestly entertaining the idea of brining back Albert Pujols. Some might not like heading down this road, but to pull off what Im about to suggest in a minute, we will have limited dollars for DH. And if he wants to run it back with Yadi to end his career, on a small one year deal, we could do much worse than a .250 average, .290 on base and so far 6 HRs in 30 games (what hes doing with the Dodgers right now) as a 7/8 hole DH.

I say we have to go cheap on the DH spot, because between bringing back Waino/Yadi and adding a (cheap) DH were looking at another $20m+ added to the 2022 payroll. But if we are serious about contending, and proving to Nolan that we are serious and want to keep him long term, its time to go get the one that got away. Sign Max Scherzer. Its that simple. You bring him in, he becomes the Ace of the staff, or 1B at worst if we are getting peak Flaherty. But that completely bolsters the pitching staff, and we suddenly become legitimate contenders. But hes not coming cheap, its probably a 2/3 year deal for some pretty high dollars. At least $20m, if not back at his current number of $27m, and possibly an extra year option with a high dollar buyout. (we also need the Nats to stay in contention, as it sounds like Max wants an extension if he is traded, which would be bad news for us) How about this possible rotation though;

  • Max Scherzer
  • Jack Flaherty
  • Adam Wainwright
  • Alex Reyes
  • Miles Mikolas
  • Dakota Hudson 

That would be my plan to become an immediate World Series contender for 2022, and continue to prove to one of the best players in baseball that this is where he wants to be, and we are serious about being what we sold him on. None of these are long term deals, mostly 1 and 2 years with maybe a 3rd to seal the deal on the best guys. That way we dont hamstring ourselves.

The only outstanding spot is that last OF position. I would bet the organization would just bring back Bader, and its a fine option if we run out of money. Ideally we'd sign Sterling Marte, but if its the Bader option hes on a short leash. Especially now that Edman can take over in RF and Sosa can man Second Base. Or even a potential Nolan Gorman at 2B if his bat forces his way into the big league lineup. Doesnt look all that different from today, but this lineup is formidable (depending on the hitting coach) and leaves us a few spots that could be upgraded on at the deadline;

  1. Dylan Carlson RF
  2. Paul Goldschmidt 1B
  3. Nolan Arenado 3B
  4. Tyler O'Neill LF
  5. Yadier Molina C
  6. Paul DeJong SS
  7. Tommy Edman 2B
  8. Albert Pujols DH
  9. Harrison Bader CF

 

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I think we might have a keeper in Oviedo. He’s looked downright bad at times this year, but he seems to be getting more comfortable with every start. He’s also younger than Zack Thompson. We have the makings of a pretty good pitching staff in the very near future. 

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  • CWood21 changed the title to The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

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