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The STL Cardinals Thread - Is It The Offseason Yet?


CWood21

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On 10/9/2022 at 2:09 PM, CWood21 said:

Anyone not listed is set to make minimum, so you're probably talking about $15Mish combined at most.  Right now, they're just over $105.16M in salary.  They should salary dump DeJong and VerHagen if they have the ability to do so.  The biggest question are going to be the arbitration cases.  Edman, O'Neill, Montgomery, Flaherty, Helsley, Hicks and Knizner are probably no-brainers.  Alex Reyes seems like a foregone conclusion to get non-tendered even if he's probably not due for a sizeable pay bump.  Dakota Hudson probably gets offered arbitration, since he's still relatively cheap.  Chris Stratton probably gets non-tendered, but I could see them trying to re-sign him for cheap.

Using the MLBTR Arbitration projections, as well as rounding up on what the Minimum salaries should be, Ive got us sitting at about $150m in payroll.

That includes DeJong and Verhagen, as well as not having any non tenders at this point (Hudson, Reyes, Stratton, Cabrerra)

All while needing to decide on a Catcher (either starter or backup), a 5th Starter, and probably one more bat on the bench

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4 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Using the MLBTR Arbitration projections, as well as rounding up on what the Minimum salaries should be, Ive got us sitting at about $150m in payroll.

That includes DeJong and Verhagen, as well as not having any non tenders at this point (Hudson, Reyes, Stratton, Cabrerra)

All while needing to decide on a Catcher (either starter or backup), a 5th Starter, and probably one more bat on the bench

Didn't realize MLBTR had their projections up.  But definitely forgot to include Montgomery as part of the arbitration group.

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Didn't realize MLBTR had their projections up.  But definitely forgot to include Montgomery as part of the arbitration group.

Id be surprised if we arent looking to get an extension with him, might bring down 2023 a smidge, but he wouldnt be dirt cheap for this coming year

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1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said:

Id be surprised if we arent looking to get an extension with him, might bring down 2023 a smidge, but he wouldnt be dirt cheap for this coming year

He's effectively a 3 WAR SP, although he was better in the second half with St. Louis than he was with New York. Feels like a Jon Gray-type of contract seems in order.

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6 hours ago, CWood21 said:

He's effectively a 3 WAR SP, although he was better in the second half with St. Louis than he was with New York. Feels like a Jon Gray-type of contract seems in order.

Yea that 4 year/$50m area would be a reasonable spot, and it would set up a good stagger for the rotation contracts, regardless of what happens with Jack going forward

You throw in adding a large 3 year (?) deal for Contreres, go with another year for Quintana, grab an INF bat, and I think thats a heck of an Offseason

 

 

Edited by StLunatic88
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17 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Yea that 4 year/$50m area would be a reasonable spot, and it would set up a good stagger for the rotation contracts, regardless of what happens with Jack going forward

You throw in adding a large 3 year (?) deal for Contreres, go with another year for Quintana, grab an INF bat, and I think thats a heck of an Offseason

Think you'll need to go to at least 4 years if you want Contreras.  Spotrac is projecting him at 4 years, $64.3M.  Reports have him wanting $100M+, which would likely need a 5th (or 6th) year.  JT Realmuto got 5 years, $115.5M last offseason from the Phillies, but Realmuto is better.  That seems like his ceiling (5 years, $100M).  Think you're looking at more than a 1 year deal from Quintana, given the season he had.  I'd anticipate it being a 2 or 3 year deal.

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1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said:

Are you looking at a backup? It seems to me the INF is pretty set. Nado - Edman - Donovan - Goldy

Presumably.  I think we're at that point where we need to decide what to do with Gorman and Liberatore though.  If Gorman isn't going to be our starting DH or 2B, he probably needs to be dealt.

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8 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Presumably.  I think we're at that point where we need to decide what to do with Gorman and Liberatore though.  If Gorman isn't going to be our starting DH or 2B, he probably needs to be dealt.

I'd be ok with moving forward with Gorman as the DH. He would need to prove he can hit lefties, though. He may have to split time with Yepez if he can't. I'd also be ok with letting him play 3B again as well as learning how to play the COF. That way he can develop into a super sub/DH. Only if he shows he can, though. I'm not super high on Gorman.  

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2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Think you'll need to go to at least 4 years if you want Contreras.  Spotrac is projecting him at 4 years, $64.3M.  Reports have him wanting $100M+, which would likely need a 5th (or 6th) year.  JT Realmuto got 5 years, $115.5M last offseason from the Phillies, but Realmuto is better.  That seems like his ceiling (5 years, $100M).

I had not seen that, and not sure Id be willing to give that to him (I know the Cards would be reluctant) but if he can leverage his way too it good for him. I said short term (3 years) and would be willing to give that type of AAV (close to $20m) for him, but not across 5 or 6 years. 

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Think you're looking at more than a 1 year deal from Quintana, given the season he had.  I'd anticipate it being a 2 or 3 year deal.

I know he played well down the stretch for us, and had one of his best years overall, but his last 2 contracts have been 1 year deals. Not sure hes getting more than 1 year contracts from here on out, as he doesnt have the best track record. Maybe he gets a 2nd year out of us, but feels like thats his situation for the next 3/4 years. Dont see alot if teams investing in a 34 year old coming off his best season, not for substantial dollars anyway

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2 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

Are you looking at a backup? It seems to me the INF is pretty set. Nado - Edman - Donovan - Goldy

Yes, a solid vet bat that can possibly also be the DH. Id give Gorman first crack, but if he struggles again, you need to be able to have an option other than just Yepez.

Basically what Dickerson was supposed to be, but on the IF. (dont want to muddle up the OF too much with Walker on the doorstep)

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50 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

 I think we're at that point where we need to decide what to do with Gorman and Liberatore though.

Hes the puzzle piece I just cant fit right now. I like him, I think he is a MBL quality pitcher, with some possible growth to a solid 3 maybe even 2 if he figures it all out. But Im not sure the Organization views him that way anymore. Or at the very least, doesnt want to leave themselves in the position that they have to rely on him that way.

But reality is, in todays MLB, you need atleast 7 guys you can count on to be Starting Pitchers for the season. And if we retain either Waino or Quintana, thats a fully projected 5 man rotation (before we even get to Hudson, Liberatore, Woodford and Thompson) Sure we can deal from that surplus*, but for what? Its not like any of those guys are highly sought after at this time

As we sit here right now, Id like to have Hudson ready to go as #6 (not sure of his option situation) as we almost always lose someone to start the year, and then let the other 3 develop as much as possible this year in the minors, whith the ability to pull them up if we get into trouble.

I only say dont be selling them all off, because if we go the route of one more with Waino (wants 200 Wins, etc) we are looking at potentially replacing 4 spots in the rotation for 2024 (Mikolas, Flaherty, Montgomery, Wainwright). Probably not that many, but probably atleast 2.

Edited by StLunatic88
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13 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I had not seen that, and not sure Id be willing to give that to him (I know the Cards would be reluctant) but if he can leverage his way too it good for him. I said short term (3 years) and would be willing to give that type of AAV (close to $20m) for him, but not across 5 or 6 years. 

$20M would make 3rd highest paid catcher behind JT Realmuto and Salvador Perez.  Salvador Perez was able to secure a 4 year, $82M deal.  That seems about fair for what he should be realistically targeting.  If he can secure that 5th year without sacrificing his AAV, that'd be great.  I think 5/$100M is his absolute peak and that's only if the market goes crazy.  Think the fourth year is a non-starter.

 

16 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I know he played well down the stretch for us, and had one of his best years overall, but his last 2 contracts have been 1 year deals. Not sure hes getting more than 1 year contracts from here on out, as he doesnt have the best track record. Maybe he gets a 2nd year out of us, but feels like thats his situation for the next 3/4 years. Dont see alot if teams investing in a 34 year old coming off his best season, not for substantial dollars anyway

Don't think he has the upside, but he's coming off a substantially better season than Paxton did and he secured a 1 year, $10M deal.  DeSclafani got a 3 year, $36M deal last year coming off a 3 WAR and -0.1 WAR season the year before.  He should be pretty easily able to get a 2 year deal.  If he's willing to sacrifice AAV, he could squeak out a 3 year deal.  Think 2 years, $24M should be the ask.  May not get that high on AAV.

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45 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Don't think he has the upside, but he's coming off a substantially better season than Paxton did and he secured a 1 year, $10M deal.  DeSclafani got a 3 year, $36M deal last year coming off a 3 WAR and -0.1 WAR season the year before.  He should be pretty easily able to get a 2 year deal.  If he's willing to sacrifice AAV, he could squeak out a 3 year deal.  Think 2 years, $24M should be the ask.  May not get that high on AAV.

This is just something we will never agree on, as you rely heavily on WAR and what its "worth" in a contract. Sure thats a factor, but its not everything. Quintana is also a few years older than both of those guys

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21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

This is just something we will never agree on, as you rely heavily on WAR and what its "worth" in a contract. Sure thats a factor, but its not everything. Quintana is also a few years older than both of those guys

I mean, I use WAR as part of the equation.  What kind of deal do you think he's going to get?

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