The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

[kgarrett12486]

With the addition of Contreras, I think it's safe to say (barring a unforeseen trade) we're probably done spending on starting caliber bats. As such, how would you guys structure the line-up on opening day?

I think my ideal would be:

1. RF Nootbaar (provides some pop at the leadoff spot and was if his 3-month stretch to close out last year is anywhere close to what to expect in 2023, he needs to be hitting at the top again)

2. 2B Donovan (he was an OBP machine last year - even with a slight regression you're still looking at an OBP of .350+)

3. 1B Goldschmidt (MVP)

4. 3B Arenado (can't break up the 3/4 combo and production we saw last year from these two)

5. C Contreras (has hit the majority of his career in this spot)

6. DH Gorman/Yepez (I'd put Gorman here just to break up the run on RH's)

7. LF O'Neill (this was the hardest one for me. If he's closer to last years version he stays at bottom of line-up. If he closer to 2021, he's somewhere between 2-5).  

8. CF Carlson (could be a guy that could move up the line-up if he gets back to 2021 level - I think he might need to give up hitting LH)

9. SS Edman (love having that double leadoff guy). 

 

[MOSteelers56]

1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

With the addition of Contreras, I think it's safe to say (barring a unforeseen trade) we're probably done spending on starting caliber bats. As such, how would you guys structure the line-up on opening day?

I think my ideal would be:

1. RF Nootbaar (provides some pop at the leadoff spot and was if his 3-month stretch to close out last year is anywhere close to what to expect in 2023, he needs to be hitting at the top again)

2. 2B Donovan (he was an OBP machine last year - even with a slight regression you're still looking at an OBP of .350+)

3. 1B Goldschmidt (MVP)

4. 3B Arenado (can't break up the 3/4 combo and production we saw last year from these two)

5. C Contreras (has hit the majority of his career in this spot)

6. DH Gorman/Yepez (I'd put Gorman here just to break up the run on RH's)

7. LF O'Neill (this was the hardest one for me. If he's closer to last years version he stays at bottom of line-up. If he closer to 2021, he's somewhere between 2-5).  

8. CF Carlson (could be a guy that could move up the line-up if he gets back to 2021 level - I think he might need to give up hitting LH)

9. SS Edman (love having that double leadoff guy). 

 

That's a really good lineup. We'll definitely be solid all the way to the bottom. 

[CWood21]

13 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

With the addition of Contreras, I think it's safe to say (barring a unforeseen trade) we're probably done spending on starting caliber bats. As such, how would you guys structure the line-up on opening day?

Unless O'Neill is struggling badly, I think he's your #6 hitter.  Better track record than Nolan Gorman or Juan Yepez even if he's a bit streaky.

1.) RF Lars Nootbaar (L)
2.) 2B Brendan Donovan (L)
3.) 1B Paul Goldschmidt (R)
4.) 3B Nolan Arenado (R)
5.) C Willson Contreras (R)
6.) LF Tyler O'Neill (R)
7.) DH Nolan Gorman (L)
8.) CF Dylan Carlson (S)
9.) SS Tommy Edman (S)

[CWood21]

 

[CWood21]

Interesting structure.  Cardinals effectively slightly backloading the contract.

[ttitansfan4life]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

 

Lol good one Jon. Cardinals are done outside of trashcan scraps.

[kgarrett12486]

20 hours ago, ttitansfan4life said:

Lol good one Jon. Cardinals are done outside of trashcan scraps.

They had interest at him at the deadline, but they didn't wanna deal him. They've said they want a starter. 

With that said, agreed - no chance we look to add a 5+ years $30 million+ pitching contract as well, when we literally just gave out the biggest FA deal we've ever given just last week. They're not gonna top that in same offseason.

I think this is just a ploy by Rodon's side to drive up the price on the (3) teams that seem to be really in on him. 

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

They had interest at him at the deadline, but they didn't wanna deal him. They've said they want a starter. 

I'd put it as very unlikely (<5%), but I think it's possible.  The only SP signed beyond this season is Steven Matz.  Adam Wainwright is set to play his last season, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, and Jack Flaherty are going to be FAs after the season ends.

[kgarrett12486]

Pretty cool that we'll get to see the sibling rivalry on the regular now with the Brewers acquiring William Contreras yesterday.  

[MOSteelers56]

Could we change the name of the thread to "Wellcome Willson?" 

[kgarrett12486]

These SS deals are absolutely absurd. I knew the total contract was gonna be high on guys like Turner and Correa, but I didn't see them getting 11-13 year deals. That is absurd. I didn't see a guy like Bogaerts getting 11 years, nor the contract total he got either. Now there are like (6) teams in on swanson and saying he could get an 8 year deal! 

Glad we sat this one out on him... 

 

[MOSteelers56]

29 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Glad we sat this one out on him... 

Me too. Partially off topic, but the A's certainly didn't get the expected haul for Murphy. That was a weird trade. 

Also, thanks @CWood21 for the name change. I feel pretty important. 

[CWood21]

39 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

These SS deals are absolutely absurd. I knew the total contract was gonna be high on guys like Turner and Correa, but I didn't see them getting 11-13 year deals. That is absurd. I didn't see a guy like Bogaerts getting 11 years, nor the contract total he got either. Now there are like (6) teams in on swanson and saying he could get an 8 year deal! 

Glad we sat this one out on him... 

I definitely think those players sacrificed AAV in favor of longer (and bigger contracts).  Just using FanGraphs' projections for those FA shortstops.

Trea Turner
Ben Clemens: 9 years, $288M ($32M/year)
Average: 7.28 years, $217M ($29.8M/year)
Actual: 11 years, $300M ($27.3M/year)

Carlos Correa
Ben Clemens: 10 years, $300M ($30M/year)
Average: 7.78 years, $250.8M ($32.2M/year)
Actual: 13 years, $350M ($26.9M/year)

Xander Bogarts
Ben Clemens: 7 years, $217M ($31M/year)
Average: 6.26 years, $172.8M ($27.6M/year)
Actual: 11 years, $280M ($25.5M/year)

It seems pretty clear that the players were focused more on the total value of the deal as opposed to AAV.  And none of them got opt outs in their deals.  I'd imagine we're going to see the same thing with Dansby Swanson.  8 years sounds about right, so probably something around $160M over 8 years is probably what gets that deal done.

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

These SS deals are absolutely absurd. I knew the total contract was gonna be high on guys like Turner and Correa, but I didn't see them getting 11-13 year deals. That is absurd. I didn't see a guy like Bogaerts getting 11 years, nor the contract total he got either. Now there are like (6) teams in on swanson and saying he could get an 8 year deal! 

Glad we sat this one out on him... 

 

These numbers are exactly why I think in like a year or two, if Edman isnt a lock down stud at SS, or we dont feel the same about Gorman/Donovan at 2B along with him, (or we waiver on Winn at all) that we could be seeing a deal swung for Tatis or possibly even Story, because at that point, those deals wont look like nearly the outliers that they were when they were signed 

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

These numbers are exactly why I think in like a year or two, if Edman isnt a lock down stud at SS, or we dont feel the same about Gorman/Donovan at 2B along with him, (or we waiver on Winn at all) that we could be seeing a deal swung for Tatis or possibly even Story, because at that point, those deals wont look like nearly the outliers that they were when they were signed 

Masyn Winn is our future starting SS.