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The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?


CWood21

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2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Masyn Winn is our future starting SS.

I mean, that's definitely how it feels at this moment, but a lot can change between now and 2025 (probably the earliest we see him as an everyday player there). Assuming his development continues at the rate it has, he will be. However, too far away still. 

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54 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I mean, that's definitely how it feels at this moment, but a lot can change between now and 2025 (probably the earliest we see him as an everyday player there). Assuming his development continues at the rate it has, he will be. However, too far away still. 

Exactly, what if were sitting here next offseason, and the Guardians are ready to blow it up and suddenly Shane Bieber is on the block? Or put whoever your dream FOR Starter is into this scenario. Thats a VERY different situation than for Sean Murphy

Just saying, there are plenty of situations where we are siting here in the 2024 offseason, ans Masyn Winn isnt an option for the Cardinals at SS into the future. Its more likely that he will be, but its not a non-zero chance.

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9 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I mean, that's definitely how it feels at this moment, but a lot can change between now and 2025 (probably the earliest we see him as an everyday player there). Assuming his development continues at the rate it has, he will be. However, too far away still. 

He's probably your starting SS sometime in 2024.  Unless there's massive regression, he probably spends the majority of the year in Memphis with Jordan Walker, and then probably gets a taste of the big leagues in a September call up.  And then you're probably looking at him joining the big league club on a full-time basis in 2024 after he clears S2 territory.

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9 hours ago, CWood21 said:

He's probably your starting SS sometime in 2024.  Unless there's massive regression, he probably spends the majority of the year in Memphis with Jordan Walker, and then probably gets a taste of the big leagues in a September call up.  And then you're probably looking at him joining the big league club on a full-time basis in 2024 after he clears S2 territory.

IDK, I think that's pretty aggressive timeline to think he'll be the everyday SS in 2024. I mean, he probably could be starter right now defensively, but his bat still has developing needed. He really faded down the stretch at AA last year (albeit he did have good AFL showing). 

They've been aggressive with promotions with guys in past after seasoning in AAA, but it really hasn't paid off right away - i.e for the higher profile guys like Carlson and Gorman. I think he'll get a look in 2024 like you said, but unless he sets the world on fire right away, he's probably not going to be relied upon as the everyday SS over the known in Edman IMO.

They usually like to have that full off-season to groom the young players to take over in everyday role, so I think 2025 is the more realistic target.  

It may be a different course with Walker though. In listening to Mo talk on him, they seem to be really thinking he's going to be an integral part of this offense in 2023 sooner than later. If Walker does set world on fire, it might change the course on Wynn, but I think we're talking about completely different entities offensively here, so too fluid of a situation to really project. 

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After some of these deals handed out in this market to guys who are 30 or above, I'm really thinking how lucky we are that Arenado ended up not opting out. 

If you would've told me before the off-season that he might get more term and value on the market than his current deal, I wouldn't have bought it. Now, seeing these deals, I think there might have been a legit chance. 

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14 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

IDK, I think that's pretty aggressive timeline to think he'll be the everyday SS in 2024. I mean, he probably could be starter right now defensively, but his bat still has developing needed. He really faded down the stretch at AA last year (albeit he did have good AFL showing). 

Honestly, I really don't think it is.  The Cardinals were aggressive with him last year and put him in AA Springfield at just 20 years old.  I believe the average age of a AA player is just under 24 years old.  We're talking about a player whose 4 years younger than the league average.  And he held his own.  I think there's probably a strong chance he starts his year off in Springfield, but unless he bottoms out he's going to get promoted to Memphis.  Looking at the organizational depth chart, you've got Paul DeJong slated as the backup MIF in St. Louis.  Right now, Memphis is slated to have Jose Fermin and Kramer Robertson in Memphis as our starting MIF.  There's nobody in Memphis that's going to block Winn.

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14 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

It may be a different course with Walker though. In listening to Mo talk on him, they seem to be really thinking he's going to be an integral part of this offense in 2023 sooner than later. If Walker does set world on fire, it might change the course on Wynn, but I think we're talking about completely different entities offensively here, so too fluid of a situation to really project. 

There's no doubt that Jordan Walker is going to debut sooner rather than later.  Honestly, I think the bigger question is if he plays well in ST does he make the Opening Day roster?  I'm generally of the belief that the Cardinals are going to be paying attention to that S2 deadline when it comes to promoting prospects, but with the Cardinals being in the playoff hunt getting an extra month out of Jordan Walker could change the dynamics of a playoff race.  I'm about 90% sure he's going to start the year off in Memphis.

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11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly, I really don't think it is.  The Cardinals were aggressive with him last year and put him in AA Springfield at just 20 years old.  I believe the average age of a AA player is just under 24 years old.  We're talking about a player whose 4 years younger than the league average.  And he held his own.  I think there's probably a strong chance he starts his year off in Springfield, but unless he bottoms out he's going to get promoted to Memphis.  Looking at the organizational depth chart, you've got Paul DeJong slated as the backup MIF in St. Louis.  Right now, Memphis is slated to have Jose Fermin and Kramer Robertson in Memphis as our starting MIF.  There's nobody in Memphis that's going to block Winn.

I guess we'll see. The Cardinals are always willing to be aggressive with promoting guys through the minors, if it's warranted. So if he spends the majority of 2023 in Memphis and is lighting it up, it's plausible 2024 is the timeframe for him taking over at SS full-time. 

I just tend to think he's not just going to have some kind of adversity at some level, (whether it be AA or AAA) at some point in 2023. I don't think we're going to see that Jordan Walker ascension, where he pretty much dominates every level and does it consistently. If this happens, he's probably getting a taste of the big leagues later in 2024 and then the full-offseason to prepare for full-time SS position, which is one of the more challenging positions mentally/physically.  

 

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11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

There's no doubt that Jordan Walker is going to debut sooner rather than later.  Honestly, I think the bigger question is if he plays well in ST does he make the Opening Day roster?  I'm generally of the belief that the Cardinals are going to be paying attention to that S2 deadline when it comes to promoting prospects, but with the Cardinals being in the playoff hunt getting an extra month out of Jordan Walker could change the dynamics of a playoff race.  I'm about 90% sure he's going to start the year off in Memphis.

One thing I've always appreciated about our FO is that they're willing to give the young prospect a chance coming out of ST if they earn it. They're actually one of the few teams who will say F*** the S2 extra year if he can help us win now and is the best guy. 

I think it's going to come down to (2) factors - what do Carlson and O'Neill show in ST/WBC and if Walker has an Albert-esque ST to force the hand to break camp. 

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20 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I guess we'll see. The Cardinals are always willing to be aggressive with promoting guys through the minors, if it's warranted. So if he spends the majority of 2023 in Memphis and is lighting it up, it's plausible 2024 is the timeframe for him taking over at SS full-time. 

I just tend to think he's not just going to have some kind of adversity at some level, (whether it be AA or AAA) at some point in 2023. I don't think we're going to see that Jordan Walker ascension, where he pretty much dominates every level and does it consistently. If this happens, he's probably getting a taste of the big leagues later in 2024 and then the full-offseason to prepare for full-time SS position, which is one of the more challenging positions mentally/physically.  

The point I was trying to make is that if you're expecting 2025 as his ETA, that would mean he'd be spending 2 full years in Springfield/Memphis.  Just for perspective, it took him 2 years to go from Low-A to AA and the jump to AA is usually considered the most difficult.  I just don't see it taking him 2 years to go from AA to MLB when he's already held his own in AA.  If he would have struggled in Springfield, I could see a more pessimistic timeline but he held his own several years below the league average age.

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