The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

[StLunatic88]

12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

There's no doubt that Jordan Walker is going to debut sooner rather than later.  Honestly, I think the bigger question is if he plays well in ST does he make the Opening Day roster?  I'm generally of the belief that the Cardinals are going to be paying attention to that S2 deadline when it comes to promoting prospects, but with the Cardinals being in the playoff hunt getting an extra month out of Jordan Walker could change the dynamics of a playoff race.  I'm about 90% sure he's going to start the year off in Memphis.

Youre saying that like its not the consensus around all of baseball. You know one of the biggest things young players are clamoring for the MLBPA to do something about.

And what playoff hunt are you talking about? The NL Central? Who only got WORSE with the Brewers being cheap? We should sleep walk to the NL Central crown, and should have Zero rush to get Walker up here. They just showed us last season with Gorman

[CWood21]

16 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

One thing I've always appreciated about our FO is that they're willing to give the young prospect a chance coming out of ST if they earn it. They're actually one of the few teams who will say F*** the S2 extra year if he can help us win now and is the best guy. 

I think it's going to come down to (2) factors - what do Carlson and O'Neill show in ST/WBC and if Walker has an Albert-esque ST to force the hand to break camp. 

The Cardinals really haven't had any elite prospects since Oscar Taveras (RIP).  And you can go back and look at his first AB coming May 31st, 2014.  That's right around the S2 deadline, so that looks like pretty clear service time manipulation.  Colby Rasmus' first game was April 7th, and that probably didn't clear S2 status.

I think it's going to take a combination of Jordan Walker absolutely mashing plus an injury to one of our current starting OFers.  I just don't see any way the Cardinals would bring him up unless they're committing everyday ABs to him, and they can't if those 3 are healthy.  I legitimately do think the Cardinals want him to work on his defense in the corner OF spots.

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Youre saying that like its not the consensus around all of baseball. You know one of the biggest things young players are clamoring for the MLBPA to do something about.

And what playoff hunt are you talking about? The NL Central? Who only got WORSE with the Brewers being cheap? We should sleep walk to the NL Central crown, and should have Zero rush to get Walker up here. They just showed us last season with Gorman

I'm not trying to suggest that it's not the standard.  Most teams would prefer an extra year of cheap team control as opposed to potentially getting a pick.

I mean, there's more teams just the NL Central.

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, there's more teams just the NL Central.

But you were suggesting that the Walker hand could be forced early due to playoff implications?

If we dont win the NL Central (barring some unforeseen major trades by the Cubs) then we have massively failed, and there is a bigger issue than Jordan Walker could fix

 

I also dont agree that he will only be called up due to injury. He is the future, and unless we have 3 guys in the every day OF who are playing at an All Star level, they are going to want to get him up here and acclimated to the Majors so he can be a factor for those playoffs. Lars Nootbaar is a fun story and all, but hes a 4th OF, and shoudnt be any sort of barrier for Jordan Walker.

[kgarrett12486]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

The Cardinals really haven't had any elite prospects since Oscar Taveras (RIP).  And you can go back and look at his first AB coming May 31st, 2014.  That's right around the S2 deadline, so that looks like pretty clear service time manipulation.  Colby Rasmus' first game was April 7th, and that probably didn't clear S2 status.

I think it's going to take a combination of Jordan Walker absolutely mashing plus an injury to one of our current starting OFers.  I just don't see any way the Cardinals would bring him up unless they're committing everyday ABs to him, and they can't if those 3 are healthy.  I legitimately do think the Cardinals want him to work on his defense in the corner OF spots.

I mean, there aren't many good teams that consistently get those elite (top 10) in MLB type of prospects. We just had (2) top 30 guys in last few years Carlson and Gorman and they both were promoted ahead of time when they were ready. They also brought up Flaherty a couple weeks ahead of the S2 and lost that extra year with him.

If Walker sets the world on fire in ST, I don't think the Cards have any intention of sending him down. Honestly, I think he's a legit option to play CF too (maybe not year 1, but down the line).  

[kgarrett12486]

https://redbirdrants.com/posts/cardinals-trade-negotiations-reveal-who-the-cardinals-value-the-most-01gm8yc157dy

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

But you were suggesting that the Walker hand could be forced early due to playoff implications?

If we dont win the NL Central (barring some unforeseen major trades by the Cubs) then we have massively failed, and there is a bigger issue than Jordan Walker could fix

 

I also dont agree that he will only be called up due to injury. He is the future, and unless we have 3 guys in the every day OF who are playing at an All Star level, they are going to want to get him up here and acclimated to the Majors so he can be a factor for those playoffs. Lars Nootbaar is a fun story and all, but hes a 4th OF, and shoudnt be any sort of barrier for Jordan Walker.

I mean, you could easily prefer to be the 2 seed as opposed to the 3 seed.  The 1 and 2 seeds get byes for the first round, so you're already in the NLDS if you're a top 2 seed.  Plus, you're going into a best-of-5 series as opposed to a best-of-3.  I'm not saying that the Cardinals aren't going to win the NL Central.  I think it'd be a massive upset if they didn't win the NL Central, but that's probably more an indictment of the NL Central as a whole.

Tyler O'Neill is a year removed from a 5.6 fWAR season, and a legit MVP candidate when he's healthy.  Dylan Carlson is a former top 25 prospect who probably needs to give up switch-hitting.  And Lars Nootbaar offers a high OBP and as long as he continues to produce he'll get PT.  He's not blocking Walker, but you're not rushing to get him out of the lineup if he's producing.

[CWood21]

23 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I mean, there aren't many good teams that consistently get those elite (top 10) in MLB type of prospects. We just had (2) top 30 guys in last few years Carlson and Gorman and they both were promoted ahead of time when they were ready. They also brought up Flaherty a couple weeks ahead of the S2 and lost that extra year with him.

If Walker sets the world on fire in ST, I don't think the Cards have any intention of sending him down. Honestly, I think he's a legit option to play CF too (maybe not year 1, but down the line).  

Dylan Carlson's first game was August 15th, which is well past S2 territory.  Nolan Gorman was May 20th, and looking at FanGraphs it looks like he'll barely clear S2 treshold based on past year's.

LIS, I think there's going to have to be another factor besides Walker hitting well in ST.  He's got roughly a half a seasons worth of working in the outfield, so even if you're convinced the bat is going to play he's going to need more work on defense in the outfield.  That conveniently works out in St. Louis' favor if they opt to try and get him into late May, early June before bringing him up.

[kgarrett12486]

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I'm glad we didn't land Swanson. Giving him a 7 year deal and 177 million? No thanks. Dude is just barely above league average for his career offensively (and has actually been under league average a few years). I know he's a stud defensively, but for that price tag?

I mean he's had like 1 year where he put up a WAR above 2.9. That's not worthy of a long-term deal to me. 

[MOSteelers56]

Pardon me if this has been discussed, but how do you think Edman's defense will hold up at SS now that shifts are banned?

[kgarrett12486]

23 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

Pardon me if this has been discussed, but how do you think Edman's defense will hold up at SS now that shifts are banned?

Don't think it's going to have any real effect on him. He was an above average defender at both 2B and SS over last 2 years by the defensive metrics. He's also got a GG caliber 2B partner in Donovan, which helps. 

I think the shift really hurts a guy like Gorman though and his ability to play 2B. He was serviceable there last year due to the shift. 

[kgarrett12486]

Interesting interview with Mo and Frank Cusamano recently. They talk about the SP and Mo essentially says they have (6) guys lined-up - Flaherty, Mikolas, Wainwright, Montgomery, Matz and Hudson. He then talks about the guys he expects to compete as well and mentioned Verhaegen, Pallante and Thompson. He did not even elude to or mention Liberatore at all... 

[CWood21]

On 12/19/2022 at 12:53 PM, MOSteelers56 said:

Pardon me if this has been discussed, but how do you think Edman's defense will hold up at SS now that shifts are banned?

Defensive metrics have him graded out as average to slightly above-average (DRS and UZR).  Don't think shifts are going to drastically alter that.  I think he's better defensively at 2B, but that's the case with most middle infielders.

[CWood21]

5 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Interesting interview with Mo and Frank Cusamano recently. They talk about the SP and Mo essentially says they have (6) guys lined-up - Flaherty, Mikolas, Wainwright, Montgomery, Matz and Hudson. He then talks about the guys he expects to compete as well and mentioned Verhaegen, Pallante and Thompson. He did not even elude to or mention Liberatore at all... 

It pains me to say it especially after being a fan of Matthew Liberatore coming out of HS, and the subsequent trade to the Cardinals, but we're reaching a tipping point with regards to his future with the Cardinals.  He's only got 2 more minor league options left, so after the 2024 season they're either going to have to commit to keeping him up full-time or releasing him.  He struggled last year both with Memphis and St. Louis, so I think he's going to need a good year in Memphis to put himself back in future plans.

[kgarrett12486]

15 hours ago, CWood21 said:

It pains me to say it especially after being a fan of Matthew Liberatore coming out of HS, and the subsequent trade to the Cardinals, but we're reaching a tipping point with regards to his future with the Cardinals.  He's only got 2 more minor league options left, so after the 2024 season they're either going to have to commit to keeping him up full-time or releasing him.  He struggled last year both with Memphis and St. Louis, so I think he's going to need a good year in Memphis to put himself back in future plans.

Agreed, it's definitely sounding like they've soured on him. Crazy to think that just last offseason, we were projecting him to be a mainstay in the middle-upper part of the rotation for the future.