CWood21 Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 21 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: I believe it was Goould who said that Donaldson wasnt Plan A for us this offseason, and be may not even have been Plan B. If thats true, and we pull off Plan A, then Donaldson will be a fart in the wind to us. I think Plan A really is Goldschmidt, and then slide Carp to 3rd for the year. Resign Goldy going forward, and find the true solution to 3B after that. Carpenter - 3B Bader - CF Goldschmidt - 1B Ozuna - LF DeJong - SS Molina - C O'Neill - RF Wong - 2B Thats a Lineup I can get behind, Even if it means taking on the Grinkie contract (hopefully we could swap the Fowler contract for it) There's only so many difference makers available each offseason. And we're talking about someone who doesn't have a draft pick attached to him. Worst case scenario, he flops out and we just wasted ~$20M on him. Best case scenario, he returns to a 5 WAR season and we offer the QO and collect an extra draft pick next season. That's exactly the type of "gamble" the Cardinals should be making. I believe the cost per WAR is something like $8.5M/WAR, so you're looking at roughly $28M in surplus value. You're looking at something like Nolan Gorman or Dakota Hudson and Dylan Carlson. And that's assuming someone won't give up a better singular piece. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 20 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said: I'd be good with this if we can get an extension for Goldy. We can't keep missing on these guys. That's why I want Harper. Someone else mentioned it, but sign him for a bunch of years and stop worrying about missing out on stars. It's going to have opt outs in that deal as well, so it's not like we're going to be paying on the downside of his career. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 27 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I believe the cost per WAR is something like $8.5M/WAR Yea, sure thats reasonable in a vacuum, but i have said it so many times here, trades dont happen in a vacuum. So many things go into that. We (and speculation fan sites) can sit here all day and talk about how a players WAR is worth so many dollars in a trade, which equates to what Prospect A and Prospect B are wirth with their talent* years of control blah blah blah. Thats not how all trades are made when GMs negotiate. Yes they want a return for Goldschmidt, but if they are also trying to unload salaries or a player owont go to certain teams which limits his value, or maybe the market isnt as big as we all beleive because they are only under contract for one more season or they have an albatross of a contract... All those things matter. As far as Donaldson, Ive been beating that drum for 4 seasons now, but if things more than dollars are on his list of wants (i.e. the training staff he trusts) then we just cant compete with that assuming all other offeres are relatively equal in dollar amount,. Because if he went out into the market, said my needs are a 1 year deal, $22+ million, and then chose his spot from the pool that came with that type of offer, what else are we supposed to do what his secondary wants are the deciding factor because a handfull of clubs gave him basically the same deal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: Yea, sure thats reasonable in a vacuum, but i have said it so many times here, trades dont happen in a vacuum. So many things go into that. We (and speculation fan sites) can sit here all day and talk about how a players WAR is worth so many dollars in a trade, which equates to what Prospect A and Prospect B are wirth with their talent* years of control blah blah blah. Thats not how all trades are made when GMs negotiate. Yes they want a return for Goldschmidt, but if they are also trying to unload salaries or a player owont go to certain teams which limits his value, or maybe the market isnt as big as we all beleive because they are only under contract for one more season or they have an albatross of a contract... All those things matter. Let me ask you this, if you were dealing Goldschmidt would you deal him for Hudson and Carlson? Because I wouldn't. And I really like Carlson. The problem for the Cardinals is they lack the farm talent at the top unless they're willing to deal Nolan Gorman or Alex Reyes, something I'm not keen on doing. Especially for a guy whose set to be a FA at the end of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Let me ask you this, if you were dealing Goldschmidt would you deal him for Hudson and Carlson? Because I wouldn't. And I really like Carlson. The problem for the Cardinals is they lack the farm talent at the top unless they're willing to deal Nolan Gorman or Alex Reyes, something I'm not keen on doing. Especially for a guy whose set to be a FA at the end of the year. I know this wasn't directed at me, but maybe they'd do it if you added another Carlson type prospect. Someone like Genesis Cabrera, Arozarena, Montero(I would like this the least), or Justin Williams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said: I know this wasn't directed at me, but maybe they'd do it if you added another Carlson type prospect. Someone like Genesis Cabrera, Arozarena, Montero(I would like this the least), or Justin Williams. But what happens if/when another team is willing to offer a more premium prospect? How could you take the Cardinals' package when someone is offering a guy who projects to be a stalwart of your team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Let me ask you this, if you were dealing Goldschmidt would you deal him for Hudson and Carlson? Because I wouldn't. And I really like Carlson. The problem for the Cardinals is they lack the farm talent at the top unless they're willing to deal Nolan Gorman or Alex Reyes, something I'm not keen on doing. Especially for a guy whose set to be a FA at the end of the year. It all depends on what the other offers are. Because if I am the Diamondbacks then I AM dealing him. Because if I dont, al Im getting for him is at best an Early 30s pick in the 2020 draft. A very measly return. So that is the floor of where you start when comparing offers, is Hudson+Carlson better than that sandwich pick? Id say so Not to mention (and I know the recent reports about his limited NTC) but if we were willing and able to take on some of that albatross of Grinkies contract, how much does that change the dynamic for a club that is trying to shed salary and hit the reset button? That is worth atleast a secondary prospect in a deal to them, if not more because if they dont package those two together, they are probably going to have to pay some of his remaining money AND possibly give a prospect for some club to take him. That has been my whole point, its not just simple math; Goldschmidt = 28, so match him with a 15 prospect, an 10 prospect and throw in that wildcard 5 prospect to tip it over the edge. Every trade and each trade chip is subjective to every person, especially each franchise that covets certain attributes differently. Maybe they want close to the Majors arms, and they value those Much more highly than a high upside prospect in Single A who is still 4 year away? Many teams want Goldschmidt, but what are they willing to give up, with the limitations, remember what the Marlins got back for Stanton? Even Ozuna? And then look what the Yankees gave up for James Paxton? Different players, but both Face f the Franchise types, one for the Top or 2nd Prospect in a STACKED system, and the other cost them next to peanuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 The Dbacks will have no shortage of suitors for Goldy. It's gonna take significant pieces to get him. I read today that Dbacks are keeping Greinke separate from Goldy, so they can reap better return pieces instead of teams taking on Greinke deal in return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said: The Dbacks will have no shortage of suitors for Goldy. People said that when the Marlins first let word out about Stanton Yealich and Ozuna, which turn out to really be a hand full of teams for all three of them. 9 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said: It's gonna take significant pieces to get him. You know teams are only trading for 1 year of Goldschmidt, which is going to effect the packages they are offered. Highly doubt he signs an extension befre a trade is completed. 12 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said: I read today that Dbacks are keeping Greinke separate from Goldy, so they can reap better return pieces instead of teams taking on Greinke deal in return. Not that this isnt true, but we are going to hear SOOO many things about this process Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 37 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: It all depends on what the other offers are. Because if I am the Diamondbacks then I AM dealing him. Because if I dont, al Im getting for him is at best an Early 30s pick in the 2020 draft. A very measly return. So that is the floor of where you start when comparing offers, is Hudson+Carlson better than that sandwich pick? Id say so Depends on your evaluation of the players, but you're probably talking about that sandwich pick being worth ~$10M or so. I believe that was the estimate that the comp pick was worth. You're probably looking at least ~$15M for Dakota Hudson, maybe around $10M for Carlson depending on how high you're on him. Probably should be worth more than that comp pick. 39 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: Not to mention (and I know the recent reports about his limited NTC) but if we were willing and able to take on some of that albatross of Grinkies contract, how much does that change the dynamic for a club that is trying to shed salary and hit the reset button? That is worth atleast a secondary prospect in a deal to them, if not more because if they dont package those two together, they are probably going to have to pay some of his remaining money AND possibly give a prospect for some club to take him. Recent reports have the Diamondbacks dangling them separately. The Diamondbacks seem intent on getting the best possible return for Goldy, and they're not going to water down the package with Greinke and his contract. I think they'd sooner either eat some of the contract or swap bad contracts. I think the idea of a Goldy/Greinke package seems to have fallen significantly. 40 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: That has been my whole point, its not just simple math; Goldschmidt = 28, so match him with a 15 prospect, an 10 prospect and throw in that wildcard 5 prospect to tip it over the edge. Every trade and each trade chip is subjective to every person, especially each franchise that covets certain attributes differently. Maybe they want close to the Majors arms, and they value those Much more highly than a high upside prospect in Single A who is still 4 year away? But that's my point. It seems possible (and very likely) that a team is going to offer a better package than what the Cardinals are willing to offer. Do you truly believe a Hudson/Carlson package is going to be the best offer? I certainly don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Can we get Goldy done without Reyes, Kelley, or Hicks? Do not want to have another Heyward situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, twslhs20 said: Can we get Goldy done without Reyes, Kelley, or Hicks? Do not want to have another Heyward situation. Don't see the Cardinals dealing Alex Reyes or Jordan Hicks for what amounts to a rental. I think it's going to take either Carson Kelly or Nolan Gorman to get a deal done for Goldy, and I'm not interested in dealing Gorman for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Don't see the Cardinals dealing Alex Reyes or Jordan Hicks for what amounts to a rental. I think it's going to take either Carson Kelly or Nolan Gorman to get a deal done for Goldy, and I'm not interested in dealing Gorman for him. I'd send Kelly in a heartbeat. We have Knizner and Yadi seems to have a fountain of youth. I want no part of sending Flaherty, Reyes, or Hicks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like Arizona won't grant us exclusive rights to negotiate with Goldy. I'm fine with that as long as we don't have to give up a haul for him. Maybe we keep him, maybe he leaves. Hopefully we don't have to gut our system to get him now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttitansfan4life Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not sure how I feel about this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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