The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

[MOSteelers56]

3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

 

Guys, Im not saying that we cant sign Jack long term, as in we dont have the money/willingness to spend, or the potential contending team to do so. 

What Im saying is I wouldnt count on him wanting to stay here. As pointed out, he has constantly stated his distain for the process, so he will not be signing an early extension. (could this recent injury change that? still doubt it) And once he gets to free agency, its most likely highest bidder, not to mention it seems like there is a pull back to the West Coast for him, and he just doesnt mesh well with the St. Louis lifestyle. 

I honestly think there is a better chance we trade him away before the 2023 season than he ever signs a long term contract with the Cardinals.

That’s an interesting idea. I kind of misinterpreted your post. I agree with you.

[holt_bruce81]

Alec Burleson 3/4 tonight with a grand slam….

What a month of July so far…

11 games, .362 BA, .385 OBP, 6 HR, 17 RBI 

In 58 games played this season Burleson has 16 home runs. Seems like he’s always been able to rake, but entering the draft last year one of his biggest flaws was his power. In 112 collegiate games, he hit a total of 12 dingers. 

 

[StLunatic88]

21 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I get what you’re saying. I’m just saying, I wouldnt count the Cardinals out just yet. Let’s let it play itself out. 

Yea but you cant really do that with an asset as valuable as Jack. I know its a few years out at this point, but then youre suddenly in the position the Cubs are with Kris Bryant. And then you end up lying to yourself, saying things like "We'd rather take the QA Comp pick than settle for less than full value right now"

I will say that this first Arb seems to have gone a bit better than I assumed it would (Wasnt sure how well we would do as we mostly avoid it) but 2 more of those, and if we plan on keeping Nolan, we arent just going to offer him the most money with all the teams willing to spend out there, as fast as Pitchers fall apart.

There is definitely a world where Jack is a Cardinal for the next 10 years. But I think its one of the least likely scenarios out there.

[CWood21]

Bonus Pool Tracker

1.18 - Michael McGreevy [RHP; UC Stanta Barbara] ($3,481,300)
2.54 - Joshua Baez [OF; Dexter High School (Mass.)] ($1,338,500)
2.CB - Ryan Holgate [OF; Arizona] ($906,800)
3.90 - Austin Love [RHP; North Carolina] ($657,600)
4.120 - Zane Millers [RHP; Washington State] ($478,300)
5.151 - Gordon Graceffo [RHP; Villanova] ($353,700)
6.181 - Alfredo Ruiz [LHP; Long Beach State] ($270,300)
7.211 - Alec Willis [RHP; Regis Jesuit HS (Co.) ($211,500)
8.241 - Mike Antico [OF; Texas] ($171,200)
9.271 - Trent Baker [RHP; Angelo State] ($153,300)
10.301 - Osvaldo Tovalin [3B; Azusa Pacific University] ($144,600)

Cardinals Bonus Pool: $8,167,100
Cardinals Bonus Pool + 5%: $8,575,455
Money Spent:
Money Remaining:

[StLunatic88]

18 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

That’s an interesting idea. I kind of misinterpreted your post. I agree with you.

Yea, it would be nice to have him as the Ace to front a set of young stud arms, but I just get the feeling that its going to be very very hard to keep him in St. Louis. So in my mind there are really 3 options here, because the Extension option is off the table in this case;

1. Let it play out, all the way till he becomes a Free Agent after 2023, and just hope your best money offer is enough. Which likely just results in a QA Comp Pick
2. Move him before the Trade Deadline in 2023; this would need either a complete collapse that season, or the Front Office to have a Titanic Shift in approach, and not keep thinking "were one winning streak from being back in it"
3. Move him before the 2023 season; Using this final year of team control to help restock the farm system that is suddenly feeling depleted. Were not going to get a ton of top prospects for one year of him, but a couple of those types and some fliers would be a nice infusion

Obviously I think all of this teeters on Arenado's decisions going forward, and we cant truely see any path forward with this team until his future situation is resolved 

[StLunatic88]

12 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Bonus Pool Tracker

2.54 - Joshua Baez [OF; Dexter High School (Mass.)] ($1,338,500)

What do you guys think the chances we get him signed are?

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

1.18 - Michael McGreevy [RHP; UC Stanta Barbara] ($3,481,300)
2.54 - Joshua Baez [OF; Dexter High School (Mass.)] ($1,338,500)
2.CB - Ryan Holgate [OF; Arizona] ($906,800)
3.90 - Austin Love [RHP; North Carolina] ($657,600)
4.120 - Zane Millers [RHP; Washington State] ($478,300)
5.151 - Gordon Graceffo [RHP; Villanova] ($353,700)
6.181 - Alfredo Ruiz [LHP; Long Beach State] ($270,300)
7.211 - Alec Willis [RHP; Regis Jesuit HS (Co.) ($211,500)
8.241 - Mike Antico [OF; Texas] ($171,200)
9.271 - Trent Baker [RHP; Angelo State] ($153,300)
10.301 - Osvaldo Tovalin [3B; Azusa Pacific University] ($144,600)

Before we get too far into this, it should be noted that Mike Antico and Trent Baker are both seniors which severely limits their ability in negotiation.  In past years, these players usually sign for between 5k and 15k, so let's pencil them in at 15k each, which would give an additional wiggle room of roughly 295k to play with.  The Cardinals will also likely have some extra leverage because you can spend up to 5% more of your bonus pool before you take significant punishment, so there's extra 408k to move around.  There's really only two tough signs in this year's class in second round pick Josh Baez, a Vanderbilt commit, and Alec Willis, a Minnesota commit.  Any player signed outside the top 10 rounds will only have their signing bonus count towards the pool if they sign for more than 125k, and only their overage will count.  The only two that might count towards the pool would be 18th round pick Andrew Marrero and 20th round pick Xavier Casserilla, which I view as if we have money left over they'll try and make a run.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said:

What do you guys think the chances we get him signed are?

I don't think they would have drafted him if they didn't know the number to get it done.  If I had to guess a number, I'd say $1.5M would get it done.

[MOSteelers56]

7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I don't think they would have drafted him if they didn't know the number to get it done.  If I had to guess a number, I'd say $1.5M would get it done.

That’s exactly what I was going to say. 
 

Also, Trent Baker. I’m liking what I’ve read so far. I know it wasn’t D-1, but his stats were ridiculous. 

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

1.18 - Michael McGreevy [RHP; UC Stanta Barbara] ($3,481,300)
2.54 - Joshua Baez [OF; Dexter High School (Mass.)] ($1,338,500)
2.CB - Ryan Holgate [OF; Arizona] ($906,800)
3.90 - Austin Love [RHP; North Carolina] ($657,600)
4.120 - Zane Mills [RHP; Washington State] ($478,300)
5.151 - Gordon Graceffo [RHP; Villanova] ($353,700)
6.181 - Alfredo Ruiz [LHP; Long Beach State] ($270,300)
7.211 - Alec Willis [RHP; Regis Jesuit HS (Co.) ($211,500)
8.241 - Mike Antico [OF; Texas] ($171,200)
9.271 - Trent Baker [RHP; Angelo State] ($153,300)
10.301 - Osvaldo Tovalin [3B; Azusa Pacific University] ($144,600)

We've talked enough about McGreevy, so I won't talk too much on him.  Seen both a Rick Porcello (the MLB player, not the prospect) and Jake Odorizzi comps with him.  Don't hate the pick, but I don't love the pick either.  

Joshua Baez is clearly the best prospect of the bunch with tools to dream on.  He's got plus power and plus arm strength, and I've seen a 70 grade for both.  He moves well for his size and should be at least average, maybe even slightly above-average.  Defensively, he's almost certainly going to shift to a corner OF where his strong arm should help him profile in RF.  The question is he gonna hit enough to tap into that power.  It doesn't appear that he has a hard time picking up off-speed stuff so much as he has a tendency to sell out for power.  If he can dial back his swing and rely more on his natural power, he's got superstar potential.  I've seen an Aaron Judge comp thrown out.

In a draft that lacked college hitters with power, Holgate was one of the very few available.  He's improved at the plate since his freshman year in college, and the power finally displayed itself this past season.  Defensively, he's a corner OF, but his limited arm is probably going to keep him in LF.  He does have the athleticism to play 1B, but he might not hit enough to justify him playing there.  I've seen a Michael Conforto comp thrown out with him.

The reoccurring theme of this year's class was big, projectable college arms with strong control.  Austin Love follows in that mold with a fastball that sits in that 91-94 MPH range with natural sink, but he's shown the ability to get it as high as 98 MPH but it tends to get hit hard.  His change-up is probably his best pitch, and he's shown a solid feel for a slider and he's played with his cutter some.  He's probably a long reliever in the long run, but potentially a BOR starter.

Not really seeing a whole lot on Zane Mills aside from the fact that he's got prototypical pitchers' build is that he's got a 3 pitch mix who controls his stuff well but lacks any true out pitch.

 

[holt_bruce81]

Gorman had his best games at AAA yesterday. Going 3/4 with a double and a homer. Great to see. 

Burleson hit another home run last night. Unbelievable. 

I kinda like Evan Sisk down in Springfield…

2.35 ERA, 13.50 K-rate, 4.70 walk-rate

The walk-rate is obviously way to high right now but that K-rate is niiice. Seems like he has potential to maybe be a nice lefty for the pen down the road. Definitely keeping an eye on him. 

[kgarrett12486]

On 7/14/2021 at 9:15 AM, CWood21 said:

Bonus Pool Tracker
5.151 - Gordon Graceffo [RHP; Villanova] ($353,700)

I think this pick might turn into something. He got better every year at Villanova and is a workhorse. He's got three pitches he can throw for strikes and build go deep into games. Potential BOR starter. 

[CWood21]

 

Still searching for the $$$.

[CWood21]

 

[CWood21]

22 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Still searching for the $$$.

Haven't heard anything concrete as far as McGreevy goes.  The last I had heard was that it was more than what the '20 #18 overall pick got ($2.65M), but less than slot value ($3.48M) so I'd imagine somewhere around $3M.