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Giovani Bernard Healthy

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INbengalfan    27

Nope.  Hill will be the week 1 starter, and when Mixon takes that, he will be the red zone RB/short yardage.

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theJ    49
1 hour ago, INbengalfan said:

Nope.  Hill will be the week 1 starter, and when Mixon takes that, he will be the red zone RB/short yardage.

A job he's only mildly successful at according to his conversion rate.

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/7705/the-most-and-least-efficient-short-yardage-running-backs-of-the-2015-nfl-season

I can't find anything on last year.  If Mixon came in and was more successful, what would be Hill's value?

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Do you think Mixon is gonna see ST play? If not you can't keep 3 RBs that don't play STs on the roster. The smart play is to get rid of Hill and get Brandon Wilson some snaps this TC as running back #3/#4

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theJ    49
18 minutes ago, johndeere1707 said:

Do you think Mixon is gonna see ST play? If not you can't keep 3 RBs that don't play STs on the roster. The smart play is to get rid of Hill and get Brandon Wilson some snaps this TC as running back #3/#4

I don't think Mixon is going to play ST's.  That's the whole crux of my argument with cutting Hill.  That, and he really brings nothing special to the table.  Make the hard decision and move on.  He'll probably be signed somewhere, but i don't think it's a notable loss.

 

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INbengalfan    27

They aren't cutting Hill.  They simply aren't.  Maybe a trade, but why on earth would they cut a fourth year player who is hell bent on earning that next contract.  It certainly isn't the Mike brown way, given how long he over-kept players, and Hill is still on that rooke deal.

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theJ    49

@INbengalfan - because he's superfluous. And because if he's going to get any PT to earn that next contract it comes at the expense of Bernard or mixon, the guy they already paid and the guy they recently spent a 2nd round pick on. Those guys aren't getting benched, and you can't really play three backs in today's NFL. 

If he could play STs it'd be a totally different discussion. But I'm not sure he'd be active most weeks. Why would he be if mixon is half as good as the hype?

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INbengalfan    27

You're putting playing time in there.  He may ride the pine behind the other two.  He may be kept around as an insurance policy in case Gio is limited.  Either way, he's here.

 

I hope Mixon ends up playing 60% of the snaps from week 4 on.

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8 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

I hope Mixon ends up playing 60% of the snaps from week 1 on.

FIFY

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theJ    49
34 minutes ago, johndeere1707 said:
9 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

I hope Mixon ends up playing 60% of the snaps from week 1 on.

FIFY

Same

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INbengalfan    27
6 hours ago, theJ said:

Same

Here's the thing.  For Mixon to be THE guy week 1, he'd have to have a monster preseason.  I hope he is good, but doesn't get that many runs.  Save him for the late season and postseason run.  Help him push the rookie wall as far back as possible.  Remember that both Hill and Gio had great finishes to their rookie seasons, in part, i believe, to the fact they weren't featured as much in September and early October.

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theJ    49
4 hours ago, INbengalfan said:

Here's the thing.  For Mixon to be THE guy week 1, he'd have to have a monster preseason.  I hope he is good, but doesn't get that many runs.  Save him for the late season and postseason run.  Help him push the rookie wall as far back as possible.  Remember that both Hill and Gio had great finishes to their rookie seasons, in part, i believe, to the fact they weren't featured as much in September and early October.

That's a good point. The NFL season is a lot longer and more brutal than college. Rookies tend to wear out by seasons end. 

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MrCincinnati    23
On 7/26/2017 at 2:44 PM, INbengalfan said:

Here's the thing.  For Mixon to be THE guy week 1, he'd have to have a monster preseason.  I hope he is good, but doesn't get that many runs.  Save him for the late season and postseason run.  Help him push the rookie wall as far back as possible.  Remember that both Hill and Gio had great finishes to their rookie seasons, in part, i believe, to the fact they weren't featured as much in September and early October.

I remember when Jeremy Hill was on FIRE in the preseason during his rookie year, but he barely saw the field in week 1 that season. He didn't really end up getting the starting job till mid season. Bernard didn't even get the starting job his entire rookie season, but only because he had too much value in the passing game. The trend suggests though that Mixon is going to get his chance very early. I just hope he can live up to the hype this early.

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INbengalfan    27
46 minutes ago, MrCincinnati said:

I remember when Jeremy Hill was on FIRE in the preseason during his rookie year, but he barely saw the field in week 1 that season. He didn't really end up getting the starting job till mid season. Bernard didn't even get the starting job his entire rookie season, but only because he had too much value in the passing game. The trend suggests though that Mixon is going to get his chance very early. I just hope he can live up to the hype this early.

preseason against the scrubs doesn't mean much.  Bernard got his shot later on in the season because the Law Firm was struggling badly.  Hill got his shot when Gio was injured.  That trend suggests they won't rush Mixon to the front of the carries list. 

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theJ    49
11 hours ago, INbengalfan said:
12 hours ago, MrCincinnati said:

I remember when Jeremy Hill was on FIRE in the preseason during his rookie year, but he barely saw the field in week 1 that season. He didn't really end up getting the starting job till mid season. Bernard didn't even get the starting job his entire rookie season, but only because he had too much value in the passing game. The trend suggests though that Mixon is going to get his chance very early. I just hope he can live up to the hype this early.

preseason against the scrubs doesn't mean much.  Bernard got his shot later on in the season because the Law Firm was struggling badly.  Hill got his shot when Gio was injured.  That trend suggests they won't rush Mixon to the front of the carries list. 

The circumstances are all a little different.  In 2013, BJGE had just come off a 1000 yard season at a 3.9 YPC clip.  The coaching staff drafted Bernard as a 3rd down option, and didn't see him as a true starter.  Bernard never actually "started" a game that year, but saw a big uptick in carries the second half of the season.

In 2014, due to Bernard's 2013 season, he was the presumed starter and was playing pretty well.  There was really no reason to throw Hill to the wolves, especially since he wasn't very effective the first half the season.  Then he exploded against Jacksonville, and two weeks later against New Orleans.  After Bernard got hurt, he finished the season really strong.  Probably the best string of running performances since Rudi or maybe Corey Dillion.

But fast forward to now - Hill has struggled for two years.  Really badly.  Bernard is coming off a severe injury.  There's no reason at all to give the benefit of the doubt to Hill.  They'll sit him quickly if they think someone else can do the job better.  Marvin doesn't have the luxury of losing a few games because they can't run the ball.  Mike Brown has put him on notice with his lame duck status that they need to perform this year.  

If Mixon isn't rushed to the front, it'll be because:

  1. Bernard is healthy and playing well
  2. Mixon sucks it up when given his shot
  3. Hill actually plays well

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