Jump to content

Is it actually worth it drafting RB's high + extending them?


RaidersAreOne

Recommended Posts

We are all very familiar with the belief you can get good production from RBs in the mid-late rounds, or even UDFAs (Ekeler, Pacheco, etc). It's often believed drafting a RB anywhere in the first is stupid and even though Bijan Robinson is considered the best RB to come out in some time, most would cringe at him getting drafted high. I too think/thought this way.

However I found this comment very interesting from the Raiders subforum courtesy of @NYRaider when discussing our Josh Jacobs decision:

Quote

The top 10 rushers in the league last year RB:

Josh Jacobs (Former 1st round pick)

Derrick Henry (Former 2nd round pick / $12.6M APY)

Nick Chubb (Former 2nd round pick / $12.2M APY)

Saquan Barkley (Former #2 overall pick)

Miles Sanders (Former 2nd round pick)

Dalvin Cook (Former 2nd round pick  $12.6M APY)

Christian McCaffrey (Former #8 pick / $16M APY)

Travis Etiene (Former 1st round pick)

Aaron Jones (Former 5th round pick / $11.5M APY)

Kenneth Walker (Former 2nd round pick)

The most productive RB's last season were in fact high draft picks, with many of their teams retaining them past their cheap rookie contract (Which is often considered a no-no to general fans). 

What are your thoughts?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As always - it depends. 

Can you keep the price relatively down, with short years attached? Does the guy have wear and tear already? Is he hitting his second deal at 24 turning 25, or 26 turning 27? What’s the makeup of the team? What’s the cap table look like for this year and next? 

There’s never one right way of doing these sorts of things. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A better way to do this is look at the top 10 rushing offenses and see where their RBs are drafted. of course the most productive individual RBs are the ones who are drafted high. They have the ability, and the teams are inclined to give them the ball. But as a whole, RB By Committee allows for the production to be replaced at a lower cost.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMO, Drafting them early is fine, extending them is not.
To make an auto comparison, you shouldn't buy a RB, you should lease them for the duration of their rookie contract, then return him to the dealer and lease a new RB. There's exceptions to every rule though. If your team is devoid of offensive talent outside of RB, go ahead and extend the one good player you actually have.

Edited by Jeezla
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nick Chubb has played well on 1/3 9f uis extension. 

Elliot never played well at all on his and probably tanked the market. 

McCaffery played well on his. 

Henry has been good on his. 

 

Has anyone else had more than 10 million per year on an extension recently?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Jeezla said:

IMO, Drafting them early is fine, extending them is not.
To make an auto comparison, you shouldn't buy a RB, you should lease them for the duration of their rookie contract, then return him to the dealer and lease a new RB. There's exceptions to every rule though. If your team is devoid of offensive talent outside of RB, go ahead and extend the one good player you actually have.

As my old used car manager used to say, "never buy a german, only rent them." 

 

RBs are BMWs and Audis.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One note before I start my post, Kenneth Walker was actually 11th in RB rushing yards last year, Jamaal Williams should have the #10 spot. Williams went for 1066, Walker just went for 1050. Thought maybe the list was yards per game instead, but then Pierce and Taylor would be on there. Not a huge difference, but just FWIW.

 

So, a couple of counter points here.

For one, I do actually think there's a chicken/egg element to this fact. Realistically, rushing yards on an individual level mostly correlate to carries. 8 of the top 10 rushers in yardage were also top 10 in carries. The argument could be made that high investment RBs are higher on that list not because they're better, but because they're high investment. Someone like Zeke still got a ton of carries last year despite being incredibly inefficient, while Tony Pollard was third for RBs in YPA and saw less carries behind him. Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, even Josh Jacobs if we look at 2021, have all been high draft picks and/or highly paid players who have been honestly very inefficient as runners but still see top 10ish workloads despite not really producing with it. You could argue part of why these guys are seeing the workload they are, is because the teams' investment in them, not because it's actually the ideal workload share for that offense. 

Second, if you keep going down the list just a little bit, it becomes less favorable for the high investment RBs. 11 through 20 include Kenneth Walker (2nd round pick, rookie deal), Rhamondre Stevenson (4th round pick, rookie deal), Tyler Allgier (5th round pick, rookie deal), Tony Pollard (4th round pick, rookie deal at the time), Dameon Pierce (4th round pick, rookie deal), Austin Ekeler (UDFA, on his second contract but that deal was an absolute steal and Ekeler has realized that), D'onta Foreman (3rd round pick, $2M one year deal), and Raheem Mostert (UDFA, $2M one year deal.) So 11 through 20, only Najee Harris was a 1st round pick, only Ekeler and Kamara are really getting paid.

Beyond this, not all rankings are equal. Top 10 or 20 is always a clean cut off to use, but it isn't always representative of an actual tier break. From CMC at #7, all the way down to Pacheco at #24, you're talking a difference of about 300 rushing yards. Over half the league had a starting RB somewhere in the 800 to 1100 rushing yard range. This is where most of the NFL lives. Most of the league was able to find a guy in this tier. And even more just missed due to injury. Akers, Robinson, Murray, Herbert, Conner, all could have made that range at 17 games pretty easily. So the league can pretty easily find guys to hit that level of productivity, IMO. And that tier is all over the place, you have UDFAs, 7th round picks, first round picks, $10M+ per year guys, everything. So if you pay a guy or draft a guy highly, and he winds up in that tier, maybe that does count as productive, but the comparative value is not there. If you're in that tier with Zeke or Najee or Mixon, you're not getting a return on your investment, when other teams are getting that same productivity out of Pacheco, Allgier, and Pierce.

Lastly, a lot is made of rookie deals for QBs, but it matters for other positions as well. If you draft a first round WR, and that player is even remotely competent, that contract is a steal. A mid first round WR is getting paid the equivalent of what Byron Pringle or Deonte Harty get on the open market. That same deal at RB gets you Jamaal Williams, Damien Harris 3 times over, James Robinson and D'Onta Foreman, etc. Like, you can get productive known quantity vets at RB for less than the rookie contract of a first round RB. You cannot do that at WR, or OT, or CB, or DE. $4M doesn't even get you half an Andrew Wylie at RT. So this ultimately becomes an opportunity cost issue as much as anything. A first round RB can be a good player. A $10M RB can be a good player. But they can't just be good to justify that investment, they need to be better enough than the alternative. If your first round RB gets you 1000 yards, but a 4th rounder could've gotten you 800, that's probably just not worth it. If your first round RB's backup has a higher YPA, he'd probably not actually adding the value you needed him to. Like, Dalvin Cook is up there, is Cook really adding $12M worth of value? Is Cook even the $9M better than Mattison?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Kiwibrown said:

Nick Chubb has played well on 1/3 9f uis extension. 

Elliot never played well at all on his and probably tanked the market. 

McCaffery played well on his. 

Henry has been good on his. 

 

Has anyone else had more than 10 million per year on an extension recently?

Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, and Alvin Kamara.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...