Lunatic's Penultimate Mock (SEC Edition)

[StLunatic88]

NFL Draft

R1: #9 – TRADE to Houston for #12 + #104 + 2024 3rd Rounder

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The Texans screwed the pooch on the #1 pick, twice, and they know it. Seems like that may be where the Caserio rumors may stem from, but hes around for atleast this draft, so they will still be active. Id say there are a couple of scenarios that could lead to this trade, but right now, I think they actually pass on QB at #2 (either swap with the Colts or just go straight for Will Anderson at #2) and in my 1st Round projections, they are making the move to fill their Franchise QB here with Will Levis (B. Young to CAR, A. Richardson to IND, C. Stroud to OAK) and I still do believe that Caserio has a mandate to come out of this draft with a Franchise QB. Its only 3 spots to move, but the Titans and others will be sniffing around as Levis drops. Its alittle rich on the TVC, but to make sure they get the QB and keep him away from TEN, they bump up the Future pick as they still have some extras next year.

R1: #12 Broderick Jones OT Georgia

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We make the move down to #12 to accrue more assets, but also because all of the OTs are still on the board. and we actually see the run on OL prospects start right after our trade (PHI take Skoronski for the versatility, TEN grabs PJJ to replace Lewan) and we keep it going by grabbing who I think is the best of both worlds, as the combination of immediate impact at RT as well as high ceiling as a LT. Broderick Jones is everything we are looking for in a tackle; Massive, long, athletic, strong. He shows really well already as a pass blocker, while still being sloppy in his technique. His run blocking is just him being bigger and stronger, so if you can teach him he should be a monster. He also looks like he plays well as part of the group, not just a guy doing his thing alone on the edge. He should slot in immediately at RT, but as he learns, it will be hard for anyone (including Braxton) to hold him off as a LT. This is the ideal scenario in my mind.

R2: #53 Derick Hall DE Auburn

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Originally I saw Hall as more of an Nguakue and hadnt really considered him as a Top 50 pick. But when we brought him in for a T30, I went back to watch him more, and I was wrong on my original assessment. Hall isnt a bender, but man his speed to power is impressive. I thought he was alittle too light in the pants against the run, but when I went back, he has the core strength and the leverage to be good enough in that area. But what this comes down to, his motor, his leadership and overall demenor is what alligns him perfectly with Flus and his HITS philosophy. How good/great he can be on the field will come down to how he stands up in the Run game. He already makes plays, and does so with a pretty limited pass rush repertoire, but he has the tools coaches will drool over (long arms, heavy hands, pure power).

R2: #61 Tyrique Stevenson CB Miami

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Theres a whole lot to really like about Tyrique; size, length, physicality, playmaking. But that all comes in a bit of a project, although one who has improved the past two seasons at Miami. He is great is press, and can cause havoc at the LoS, he is also a willing and physical tackler, even though he tries to lay a knockout blow too often. Those traits, are what would make him an amazing compliment to Jaylon and Kyler as the playmaker when passes get funneled his way. And what else I like about Stevenson, if he ends up struggling on the outside, alot of what he is already great at translates really well to Safety as well. Would rather he be a great CB, but its nice to have that safety net option as well.

R3: #64 – TRADE to Kansas City for #95 + #166 + #178 + 2024 3rd Rounder

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Some may not like this big of a drop for a trade, I think there will be a bigger focus on future picks in our dealings, and maybe thats a fair criticism, but its what Id do and I think thats going to be the case. Also, I dont think there is that big of a difference in prospects from like the 55-80 range, especially in the areas weve all focused on (OL, DL, WR). But more importantly, I think the guys we all really like (both Centers, AA, Keion, etc.) will all be gone before we pick at 53, so grabbing the couple of guys we like at the end of the 2nd allows us to make this type of move at the start of the 3rd. And I think KC knews they are in a window for a dynasty, so even with their pick at the end of the 2nd, there are only a few guys they see as difference makers right away to keep the Super Bowl runs going.

R3: #82 – TRADE with Tampa Bay for #95 + #166 + 2024 5th Rounder

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As I was just saying, I think most of the talent is pretty interchangeable in this area that we just traded down in (seems like most of us were hoping that a bunch of the 30-50 talent would be around in the 60-75 range, and its just not likely to happen), but there were a few left that have higher ceilings than the rest. With one of them them left as it gets close to the KC pick we traded down to, we move back up with Tampa Bay, who is having to hit the Reset Button faster than they wanted to, so a few extra picks for them will be valuable as they try to fortify their roster as their Top end talent is weighing down their Cap

R3: #82 Gervon Dexter DL Florida

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Dexter is one of the talents with massive potential, but also pretty big concerns that I would have had us looking at even if we staying at #64. So to have him slipping, and add a few more draft assets to the arsenal is a win. As far as Dexter himself, Ive touted him before, but he is the exact mold of what this defense wants at the UT spot. Long, quick, athletic and playmaking. But with all of that are some issues, most notably at the snap. Not only is he bad at get off, but he also stands up alot. Its odd, because he often still makes a play when having a bad start, which is what makes him so appealing. Because if you can correct that, and teach him alittle bit, he could be dominant. But even right now, as he is just out there kind of just doing stuff, he is still making an impact, thats how good his tools are. Some have tried to say its because he has a bad motor, but I think its more that he puts himself into a bad spot, and even his gifts dont always allow him to makeup for that. Definitely a project, but man if he hits it would be HUGE.

 

R4: #103 Johnathan Mingo WR Ole Miss

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Ive really fallen for Mingo in recent weeks, and its because the obvious comp that everyone makes of Deebo. Now lets be realistic though, thats the absolute top end comparison, and I wouldnt be expecting that. And honestly I wouldnt be expecting all that much in year 1, other than a 4th/5th receiver who is a dominating blocker. He doesnt create separation with his routes or moves, but he is such a good contested catch guy, that it doesnt hinder him. If he can learn alittle bit of the savvy of route running he could be a serious #1, but Id expect him to be a big play, fight for the ball #2 in his career. Still a very valuable weapon. He also has that bull in a china shop running style, that most WRs just cant do, and regardless of not having the track speed, he can be a deep threat because he is so goo going up one on one for the ball. Let him develop this year, and he would be making alot of people jealous in 2024.

 

R4: #104 Zach Harrison DL Ohio St

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You all should know the drill by now, hes got the build we are looking for (long, strong, athletic). He has the nice length on the edge, and while he excelled in testing, on the field it hasnt completely translated. But he does show some good rush moveds and the ability to anchor against the run. Although he can also be slow off the snap, and get way too high. Teachable things, but cant guarentee that they will fix everything. I see Harrison as more of a 5th Lineman, he can be a solid End, and hold up against the run, but also slide down to be a UT on the inside as well. He has the tools you look for, and as you might have picked up, we just need to keep taking swings at those toolsly types to hit on as many as we can.

R4: #133 Ricky Stromberg OL Arkansas

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I really, really, really want one of the Top 2 Centers in this draft, but unless we trade WAY down in the First, or want to jump way back up in the 2nd, I just dont think we will be in the draftable range for JMS or Tippmann anymore. You read that correctly, I think a team will loo around and just say "lets take the pro-ready guy" in Schmitz, possibly even in the 1st round, possibly as high as the 20s. And if that happens, Tippman isnt far behind, al could potentially go in the Top 40. And as good of a fit Tippman would be, I dont see us moving up half a round for a Center. On the other hand though, Stromberg is like JT-lite. He is a bigger Center (with the ability to provide Value at Guard as well) who is strong and physical, sometimes too much so even, but not to where its a worry. He is a smart and instinctual player (which I never like to admitt about an Arkansas player) and while he does need some technical tweaks, nothing is really "broken" in his game. Its just hard to see a massive upside with him, but he could be a really reliable center in the NFL, a guy who could be upgraded on in a perfect scenario, but doesnt need to be. 

R5: #136 Payne Durham TE Purdue

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A guy who I think the Bears are really interested in. He is your classic Y-TE, he will be a good blocker right away, with the projection to be dominant in that area as he gets stronger. Hes more of a safety blacken weapon than the type that defenses will be worried about. But he is a worker, and if he learns how to be super savvy, he has a catch radius you dont usually see with some really nice hands. A former Lax guy, feels like theres more potential to be tapped here, but he should be at least a great TE2 with top notch blocking ability and a tough matchup Red Zone threat. 

R5: #148 Andrew Vorhees OL USC

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Seems like ever fan wants their team to get Vorhees this draft, and for good reason. He has the size, length, and especially strength to be a factor at nearly any spot on the Line (he hasnt ben a Center, and is probably too tall to be that since he hasnt before). I had him as a Top 100 player easily before the injury, but now you have to factor in year one is a complete Red Shirt year for him, which is tough because he is already an old prospect. But he is a very good run blocker, and a solid team pass blocker. When healthy, he is at worst your 6th lineman, who can jump in immediately at Guard or even as your emergency OT. His size/power/demeanor are exactly what I think we all want along the OL. 

R6: #178 Jerrod Clark DL Coastal Carolina

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Alot of people see Clark's measurements (6'4, 330+) and immediately assume hes a 2 down player, and just a plugging NT. Hes more than that, he has a massive wingspan and knows how to take up alot of space for sure. But he does show flashes some enticing pass rush reps as well, pair that with some of the best shed and tackle Ive seen in this draft, and youve got my attention. He has been only a rotational player in college, and he may end up being just that in the league, but even that would be a very valuable rotational piece if he can harness the pass rush side of his game. Add him to Dexter, Walker, Jones and Billings, We have completely revamped the interior DL in one offseason.

R7: #218 Chris Rodriquez RB Kentucky

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I dont think RB is really anywhere on our radar right now, no matter how much fans want one. Yes it would be "cool" to see Fields and Bijan in the same backfield, but it just doesnt make sense positional value wise (which yes that is part of the prospect value, but team need is not). Teams just dont build around RBs anymore, no matter how good they are. I do think this is a deep draft at the RB position, which might push some solid value into the end of the draft, or possibly even into the UFDA pool. One of those could be Rodriguez, a guy whjo I see as a complete back with size/speed/balance, but none of them are high end traits, just really solid all around. That doesnt sound super exciting, but it is a guy who you really like to have especially if you intend to pair that with a homerun/receiving type of back (possibly Herbert). I also like him, be cause I also think he is the type od guy who we could slip onto the Practice Squad out of Camp, and bring him in when injury occurs or next year when we have more clarity on the position group. Feels like we need to actually find out what we have in Herbert, its alot of "potential" at this point.

R7: #258 Michael Jefferson WR Lafayette

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Yes, I know about the accident, and Yes that is actually part of why Im ok with taking him here as the 2nd last prospect in the draft. He probably would have gone in the 6th or earlier before that, and you were expecting him to be a project/red **** anyway (also you were unlikely to see this talent/potential at 258 before the accident). So if the doctors have given him a decent recovery diagnosis as it sounds like they have, then it would be a cool thing to do for a guy we were showing some serious interest in. He reminds me of Denario Alexander as a prospect, and with guys already on the roster who you need to find out about (Mooney, Claypool, Velus) its not a bad situation to have him in waiting for 2024, without having to take up a roster spot.

 

[WindyCity]

Serious investment at OT… approved 

[beardown3231]

Sign me up

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

Ideal.

[Ty21]

There’s a risk of the top 3 OT going before 12, is that a risk you’re willing to take to pick up a 4th rounder? That just makes it seem like we’re trading down for the sake of trading down. 
 

So we trade down for a later 3rd, a late 5th, and our original 6th back and a future 3rd, then trade all our original gains sans the 6th and add a next year 5 to move up? I don’t understand the logic. Why not just trade down to 82 and not trade down and up in the span between our picks lol. did you watch Draft Day?

Overall, player wise not a whole lot to complain about, although I disagree with taking Jefferson in the 7th. He was kinda a long shot to get drafted and the car accident shouldn’t improve those odds. 

[Sugashane]

I'd be a big fan of this draft. Jones has crazy potential, Hall is a hell of an EDGE prospect and Stevenson would form a really great trio with Jaylon and Kyler. Dexter, Harrison, Vorhees and Stromberg are guys I've been high on to build the trenches. Clark I think finds a way to go much earlier so getting him there is a steal 

 

Also PHI is probably the best place for Sko to land. He gets to plug in and learn from the best center in the league, then PHI gets Kelce's heir for Hurts. That's a pick that a top franchise should make. 

 

Really good work man 

[StLunatic88]

5 hours ago, Ty21 said:

There’s a risk of the top 3 OT going before 12, is that a risk you’re willing to take to pick up a 4th rounder? That just makes it seem like we’re trading down for the sake of trading down

It’s the highest 4th rounder we could possibly obtain, as well as a future 3rd rounder from a bad team that could likely be a Top 75 pick.

And in the very first line about the pick at #12, I call out that all 4 OTs are there at #9, which makes the move down very easy for us to do. 

5 hours ago, Ty21 said:

So we trade down for a later 3rd, a late 5th, and our original 6th back and a future 3rd, then trade all our original gains sans the 6th and add a next year 5 to move up? I don’t understand the logic. Why not just trade down to 82 and not trade down and up in the span between our picks lol. did you watch Draft Day?

Do you think we just get to decide who trades up with us? Sorry, I try to but atleast some logic behind my trades, and to me it’s unlikely that the rebuilding (even if they don’t admit it publicly) Bucs are moving up much in this draft unless it’s for a QB they want in the first. The Chiefs on the other hand, will be looking for immediate impact over a project. 

So sure, the net sum of the deals is #64+ ‘24 5th for #82+ #178+ ‘24 3rd. As long as we don’t end up with the 1st overall pick again, and at the same time the Chiefs repeat as SB Champs, it’s a pretty fair deal all around, and we end up with a guy I have us targeting, and not just sitting on our hands hoping he falls even further. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by StLunatic88

[HuskieBear]

I think you and I align most with our mocks/player targets. Jones is my 1A, with wright at 1B for me. Love Hall and Stevenson with our 2nds. Mingo and Reed are the two WRs i normally try and target in rounds 3-4 of mocks, i just don't think Mingo will be there with our 4th round pick (not that any of us know anything). Harrison is a great development DE that is projected to go in that range - if he puts it all together he should be a really good player. Stromberg can come in and compete at C and at worst be a good backup for the year. Vorhees and Jefferson give us the ability to NFI both players to have essential redshirt seasons, and with this team not needing them to come in and compete this year, that's getting good players lower than expected. Durham, Clark, and Rodriguez should be good depth to round out the roster.

I'm ok with the trades too, i think sometimes mock trades can get a little too unrealistic. Our 3rd is a prime trade back opportunity because of the value of players in that range and the fact that we have 2 other picks within 10 slots right before it. getting two more 3rds next year to add to our additional 1st could allow us to be really aggressive filling in any final holes we may have on the roster to make our push.

I'll give it a Solid A/A-, would be v happy with the outcome

[Madmike90]

The only guy here I wouldn't be sold on is Dexter but I can understand the upside argument...other than that this would be great...especially those first 3 picks.