Stay the Course

[MKnight82]

Everyone knows I'm all for firing the moron that is Bruce Allen.  But I don't think that's very likely, and after thinking about this team overnight I think we should bring the band back for one more try next year.  Here's my thinking:

- This team has so many major injuries our record isn't a good representation of our talent level.  We currently have 15 players on IR, 8 of which are major contributors on the team:

Starters/Major Contributors on IR

DE Jonathan Allen

MLB Mason Foster

HB Rob Kelley

LG Shawn Lauvao

C Spencer Long

OLB Trent Murphy

WR Terrelle Pryor

HB Chris Thompson

K Dustin Hopkins

*Also RT Morgan Moses went down with a severe ankle injury in the first Quarter last night

Reserves on IR

OT TJ Clemmings

OT Kevin Bowen

MLB Will Compton

DE Arthur Jones

HB Keith Marshall

NT Phil Taylor

 

We also have a lot of lingering injuries to players not on IR.  Trent Williams is limping around the field every week and has missed several games.  Jordan Reed has basically missed the entire season.  Chase Roullier is out, and Matt Ioannidis is playing with one hand.  Josh Norman missed several games as well, and our rookie rangy FS Montae Nicholson is still out with a concussion.  

Take a look at it this way:

$25,659231 mil of cap space on IR

$5,737,500 for an inactive Jordan Reed

$3,734,375 for an inactive Terrell McClain

$3,621,394 for an injured Morgan Moses

$619,723 for an inactive Montae Nicholson

$501,792 for an inactive Chase Roullier

That's $39,874,015 cap space for players that didn't contribute on the field last night.  We have $135,527,858 in total salaries this year, so approximately 30.0.% of our cap space spent wasn't on the field last night.  

IMO this is NOT a roster in need of a total rebuild.  We've just been extremely unlucky with health this season.  

 

- Hitting the reset and rebuild button now would undo everything Scott McCloughan did to bolster this roster.  Let's face it, our current GM is a complete joke and I have absolutely no faith in him to build a quality team.  Let's also face the fact that he's Danny boy's best buddy and isn't going anywhere.  So what would you prefer, Bruce Moron adding a few additions to the roster McCloughan built?  Or a full shake-up undoing everything McCloughan built by Mr. Moron?  I say let Brucey go out and sign us another WR, an addition to the defense or two and add another first round pick to the McCloughan roster and see what happens next year.  

 

- If you fire Gruden you're pretty much pushing Kirk Cousins out the door.  Is Gruden a good head coach?  Idk.  I know he isn't a very good play caller, and he isn't good at picking defensive coordinators.  I do know that he has a pretty good overall offensive scheme, he's done really good work developing Kirk Cousins into a quality QB, and his players consistently play hard for him.  Should we replace him the year that we are negotiating a long term deal with our starting QB?  Absolutely not.  We need Cousins to want to come back here at a reasonable rate.  If you fire Gruden this year you're hitting the rebuild button, and we don't need to do a total rebuild.  We need to bring Cousins back next year, have our healthy Oline back and get him another quality WR to throw to.  Re-signing Cousin this offseason needs to be the main priority of the offseason.  Think of this too, once we get Cousins under contract for 5-6 years, if we do need to move on from Gruden next year finding a coach should be easier as we have an established QB.  

 

So here's the plan.  Get everyone back healthy next year, get Cousins under a long term contract, add another draft class and a few FA adds and give it one more go next year.  If things go south next year, that's the year to blow it up IMO.   

[lavar703]

How could you blow it up after paying Kirk? 

[MKnight82]

12 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

How could you blow it up after paying Kirk? 

Because we have $82 mil in 2019 cap space right now?  Not including any inflation of the cap.  

 

[Ghostnote]

I am not a big fan of blowing things up, especially when the real culprit to this entire season has been injury. I am not satisfied with Bruce Allen and his inability to work a deal with Cousins, the franchise QB this team has not had in over 25 years, and to blatantly disrespect him at every turn. Most of this entire fan base is sick with his BS and absolutely want him gone. 

I cannot tell you how much disdain I have for Allen letting McCloughan go the way he did. Allen is the cancer that Haynesworth once was and its time for him to go. I dont care about the stadium stuff. I dont care about his name and ties to George Allen. No one remembers that stuff. 

So long as Danny has any control of this team, he will never put anyone in place that can actually lead the team to success. From Cerrato to Zorn to Allen. Failure after failure. Tease after tease. This fanbase deserves better. 

[lavar703]

22 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Because we have $82 mil in 2019 cap space right now?  Not including any inflation of the cap.  

 

What good does it do for Kirk or the team to stay in this relationship if you blow things up? Unless you mean just blowing up the staff because otherwise Kirk is not sticking around for a full rebuild. He's basically said as much. 

[MKnight82]

2 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

What good does it do for Kirk or the team to stay in this relationship if you blow things up? Unless you mean just blowing up the staff because otherwise Kirk is not sticking around for a full rebuild. He's basically said as much. 

"blowing" it up would mean an overhaul of the front office, coaching staff, and a re-evaluation of some of the higher paid players on the team like Trent Williams, Ryan Kerrigan, Josh Norman, etc.  Now obviously if we bring in a coach with a significantly different scheme we could see major overhaul of the roster, but I don't really see that as necessary do you?

[lavar703]

56 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

"blowing" it up would mean an overhaul of the front office, coaching staff, and a re-evaluation of some of the higher paid players on the team like Trent Williams, Ryan Kerrigan, Josh Norman, etc.  Now obviously if we bring in a coach with a significantly different scheme we could see major overhaul of the roster, but I don't really see that as necessary do you?

I was just trying to understand what you meant by "blowing it up" and you answered that question. In your scenario, no, there's no need to blow the roster up. 

[Doc Draper]

Interesting! I can understand the arguemehts for staying the course and for blowing it up. I’ve reflected on this sipping a new McCallan 25 old sherry cask with a 60 ring Double Toro. Saving my McCallan 45 for a special occasion like another Redskins Super Bowl. I hope I see another one. 

There are great arguements for choosing either approach. Staying the Course: after the Dallas debacle the immediate reaction of many was to blow it up. But there is lots of research that argues for not reacting immediately or shortly after a disaster or big loss- in sales, profit, your secretary accidentally emails your boss your resume intended for a different company, finding your wife in bed with your housekeeper or losing so badly to the Cowboys. Immediate emotional reactions to gratify yourself with a complete change in course rarely succeed in successful long term positive performance. 

Blowing it up feels so much better 

Ivey Business Journal writes:

https://iveybusinessjournal.com/publication/future-signals-how-successful-growing-companies-stay-on-course/

“Staying the course” is important but only as long as a leader – and his or her strategy – remains flexible and can adapt as circumstances, or the competitive environment, changes. Even more important are the indicators a leader monitors to indicate those changes. This author calls these indicators “future signals,” dynamic, highly-valuable metrics that make a “90-degree right turn in strategy” the right turn.”

So let’s diseect this to the Redskins:

the keys are the assessment of the organizations leaders and of the leading indicators of performanve

 let’s start with the leading indicators. Our roster albeit many are injured is the strongest I can recall this century. We have elite to very good ( top 20%) QB, CB, LT, RG and ILB ( Cousins, Norman, Williams, Scherff, Brown) and our depth is still very good. We have a very competitive roster that has been decimated by injuries. On the other side, The big wildcard is the guy who I think built this was fired, but if Kirk can be retained the next few years appear bright from a talent stanpoint

 now to the leadership issue. Allen, Williams- not sure what he really does, Gruden. I don’t think it can be persuasively argues that these three are top 20% and quite the contrary it is a sound arguement they are bottom 20%. 

Can a team be successful with good players and depth and bottom level leadership at GM and Coach? I don’t think so. 

Im ok if the team stays pat and signs Kirk. That’s the argument that resonates the most with me- if Gruden leaves Kirk will walk. But do we know this is true? What if Allen/Gruden stays and Kirk leaves because of it? The timing is difficult because if we want to clean house the ideal time is January, but Kirk may not be resolved till June? This is our delimma but I don’t see ANY WAY this team will ever be successful with Allen/Gruden leading it. I think it’s quite possible Kirk could be re-signed easier with new competent leaders replacing Allen and Gruden. But even if he doesn’t, three years from now we will be far better off than we are today. That’s why I say- cut the cord in January to Allen and Gruden, hire someone like Bill Polian as President who then hires a GM who then hires a head coach.  

 

[turtle28]

On 12/1/2017 at 2:17 PM, MKnight82 said:

Williams is limping around the field every week and has missed several games.  Jordan Reed has basically missed the entire season.  Chase Roullier is out, and Matt Ioannidis is playing with one hand.  Josh Norman missed several games as well, and our rookie rangy FS Montae Nicholson is still out with a concussion.  

Take a look at it this way:

$25,659231 mil of cap space on IR

$5,737,500 for an inactive Jordan Reed

$3,734,375 for an inactive Terrell McClain

$3,621,394 for an injured Morgan Moses

$619,723 for an inactive Montae Nicholson

$501,792 for an inactive Chase Roullier

That's $39,874,015 cap space for players that didn't contribute on the field last night.  We have $135,527,858 in total salaries this year, so approximately 30.0.% of our cap space spent wasn't on the field last night.  

IMO this is NOT a roster in need of a total rebuild.  We've just been extremely unlucky with health this season.  

 

- Hitting the reset and rebuild button now would undo everything Scott McCloughan did to bolster this roster.  Let's face it, our current GM is a complete joke and I have absolutely no faith in him to build a quality team.  Let's also face the fact that he's Danny boy's best buddy and isn't going anywhere.  So what would you prefer, Bruce Moron adding a few additions to the roster McCloughan built?  Or a full shake-up undoing everything McCloughan built by Mr. Moron?  I say let Brucey go out and sign us another WR, an addition to the defense or two and add another first round pick to the McCloughan roster and see what happens next year.  

 

- If you fire Gruden you're pretty much pushing Kirk Cousins out the door.  Is Gruden a good head coach?  Idk.  I know he isn't a very good play caller, and he isn't good at picking defensive coordinators.  I do know that he has a pretty good overall offensive scheme, he's done really good work developing Kirk Cousins into a quality QB, and his players consistently play hard for him.  Should we replace him the year that we are negotiating a long term deal with our starting QB?  Absolutely not.  We need Cousins to want to come back here at a reasonable rate.  If you fire Gruden this year you're hitting the rebuild button, and we don't need to do a total rebuild.  We need to bring Cousins back next year, have our healthy Oline back and get him another quality WR to throw to.  Re-signing Cousin this offseason needs to be the main priority of the offseason.  Think of this too, once we get Cousins under contract for 5-6 years, if we do need to move on from Gruden next year finding a coach should be easier as we have an established QB.  

What did you do with Mknight? Is that optimism I smell?

[turtle28]

On 12/2/2017 at 11:42 PM, Doc Draper said:

Interesting! I can understand the arguemehts for staying the course and for blowing it up. I’ve reflected on this sipping a new McCallan 25 old sherry cask with a 60 ring Double Toro. Saving my McCallan 45 for a special occasion like another Redskins Super Bowl. I hope I see another one. 

There are great arguements for choosing either approach. Staying the Course: after the Dallas debacle the immediate reaction of many was to blow it up. But there is lots of research that argues for not reacting immediately or shortly after a disaster or big loss- in sales, profit, your secretary accidentally emails your boss your resume intended for a different company, finding your wife in bed with your housekeeper or losing so badly to the Cowboys. Immediate emotional reactions to gratify yourself with a complete change in course rarely succeed in successful long term positive performance. 

Blowing it up feels so much better 

Ivey Business Journal writes:

https://iveybusinessjournal.com/publication/future-signals-how-successful-growing-companies-stay-on-course/

“Staying the course” is important but only as long as a leader – and his or her strategy – remains flexible and can adapt as circumstances, or the competitive environment, changes. Even more important are the indicators a leader monitors to indicate those changes. This author calls these indicators “future signals,” dynamic, highly-valuable metrics that make a “90-degree right turn in strategy” the right turn.”

So let’s diseect this to the Redskins:

the keys are the assessment of the organizations leaders and of the leading indicators of performanve

 let’s start with the leading indicators. Our roster albeit many are injured is the strongest I can recall this century. We have elite to very good ( top 20%) QB, CB, LT, RG and ILB ( Cousins, Norman, Williams, Scherff, Brown) and our depth is still very good. We have a very competitive roster that has been decimated by injuries. On the other side, The big wildcard is the guy who I think built this was fired, but if Kirk can be retained the next few years appear bright from a talent stanpoint

 now to the leadership issue. Allen, Williams- not sure what he really does, Gruden. I don’t think it can be persuasively argues that these three are top 20% and quite the contrary it is a sound arguement they are bottom 20%. 

Can a team be successful with good players and depth and bottom level leadership at GM and Coach? I don’t think so. 

Im ok if the team stays pat and signs Kirk. That’s the argument that resonates the most with me- if Gruden leaves Kirk will walk. But do we know this is true? What if Allen/Gruden stays and Kirk leaves because of it? The timing is difficult because if we want to clean house the ideal time is January, but Kirk may not be resolved till June? This is our delimma but I don’t see ANY WAY this team will ever be successful with Allen/Gruden leading it. I think it’s quite possible Kirk could be re-signed easier with new competent leaders replacing Allen and Gruden. But even if he doesn’t, three years from now we will be far better off than we are today. That’s why I say- cut the cord in January to Allen and Gruden, hire someone like Bill Polian as President who then hires a GM who then hires a head coach.  

 

I hate to do this again because I do wish McCloughan was still here and didn't agree with his firing, but McCloughan didn't draft or sign most of this roster, the current front office did. 4/5 of our starting OL was here before hired mccloughan. Cousins, McCoy, Thompson, Reed, Paul, Grant, Breeland, Kerrigan and Compton were here before McCloughan was hired. Allen, Williams and Gruden signed or drafted this years off season with McCloghan's assistance but they did make the decisions this offseason to draft and sign who they did. They overpaid for the DL - but can get out of both contracts in March or preferably June of next year if they want, but I wouldn't - they signed Swearinger and Brown too. Yes Pryor was a bust but no body thought that would happen when we signed him so its hard to fault them and he'llb e gone next year.