Final Draft Thoughts 2023

[Superduperman]

I don't feel as confident about anything as last year. The Lions could do just about anything. But I do have some thoughts, we'll see how accurate they are

I expect them to move up or down at least once in the first round.

I think at 6, if Wilson, Carter, or Anderson are there, they will take one of them. I think they will not pass on Carter.

If those three are gone, I don't think they'll take a CB. I think they'll take an OL or a different pass rusher.

That is, unless CJ Stroud is still on the board. I think if he is, they will take him.

Somehow I don't see them taking Kancey at 18. I think they're more likely to take a OL with their second pick if they haven't with their first.

I don't think they'll take a WR before round 3.

Edit: one last one - I think the Lions are way more likely to take a QB in the first round than we think. I think Stroud and Young are the only ones they'd take at 6 but if Richardson is still there at 18, or even for a small trade up, it could happen.

Edited April 25, 2023 by Superduperman

[Lions017]

I also don't see Kancey at 18. I just don't think that they have him graded that highly and I don't think that Holmes is a guy that will reach. 

My prediction is that they trade up at least once in the first two rounds. I just think that they have too many picks and they aren't going to necessarily want to carry that many rookies. We're reaching the point with this roster where impact talent is needed and not everywhere is a black hole.  

[Superduperman]

I'd like to add this one, from back on February 1, just to keep them together
Lots of people on this board still think this is impossible but "draft experts" are coming around:

Quote

Tyree Wilson will get drafted above Will Anderson.

Anderson is a tweener. He's a perfect fit for a 3-4 OLB, unfortunate thing is that teams don't use that kind of player as much anymore. Wilson is a true DE size and length wise. If he comes out in the combine and kills it, he'll go straight to the top like Travon Walker.

Anderson could be another Micah Parsons, a star who anchors your whole defense. But Parsons got drafted 12th overall. Linebackers don't go in the top 5.

Incidentally, I think it's a non-zero chance that the Lions would pass on Anderson, or trade out of their spot for someone else to draft him. They already have a player doing the exact role Anderson would do, in Houston. Of course, there's nothing wrong with having more pass rush weapons, and I myself would take him, but I think with the 6th overall pick the Lions might try to fill a position that needs immediate starting help instead. 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

I think Kancey is higher on their board than you seem to think.  There have been DL I have been high on in the past few drafts with hutch, McNeil, and Paschal and the later 2 were drafted higher than I expected.  Holmes surely isn't using PFF grades but if they seem to coincide a lot with the way our scouts evaluate DL.  Kancey was the third highest graded DT last year behind Carter and Brooks and is much more athletic than Brooks.  He can play both Edge and DT which we seem to like and I think if available at 18, or even in a slight move up, he could be the pick.  I also wouldn't be shocked if he is the pick if we move down into the 10-15 range from 6. 

I think I haven't changed my crushes much since February.  The combine knocked some guys down my list just because they were really bad showings (Branch, Brooks, Johnson) but those guys are still on my board.  

I think if we draft a QB in the first it will be Stroud or Richardson.  I hope they don't but if Anderson, Carter, Witherspoon and Wilson are gone by 6, which I doubt, I am ok with it.  More so the first two than Witherspoon or Wilson.  

I wouldn't be shocked to see us grab Jack Campbell in the first as well, hopefully with a trade down.  I know LB is lower on the teams list of importance but he has all of the stats, athleticism, grades etc to be a late first and the first LB taken.  Finding a LB that can cover in zone will be huge for improving this D.  

[Karnage84]

I'm thinking now that the Lions are going to trade back (either at 6 or at 18) and acquire (at least) a 2024 1st in the process. 

 

 

[Louis Friend]

My instincts are telling me:

1. If the Lions stay at #6, one of CJ Stroud, Jalen Carter or Devon Witherspoon will be a Lion. 

2. Lions will trade down from #18 to the end of the first, O'Cyrus Torrence could be the player they are targeting, and it'll reduce the cap hit for the rookie contract. 

3. They will trade a pick or two for picks next year. We really don't need 9 rookies this season. Or the playing time to develop them all. 

4. Lions will double up at a position. They doubled up at DT in 2021 and tripled up at EDGE in 2022. I think OL could be a position this happens with so many question marks with our guards and increase in OL contracts. 

5. Lions will draft a WR but not early. Despite Jameson missing 6 games, Marvin, ARSB, Reynolds, Raymond is enough to tie us over. No need to divert from the plan. 

6. Brad Holmes will draft another HBCU player. With the success of James Houston and the attention of the HBCU combine, Holmes will go back to this well. Aubrey Miller and Isaiah Land are two guys to keep an eye on. 

[Karnage84]

35 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

My instincts are telling me:

1. If the Lions stay at #6, one of CJ Stroud, Jalen Carter or Devon Witherspoon will be a Lion. 

2. Lions will trade down from #18 to the end of the first, O'Cyrus Torrence could be the player they are targeting, and it'll reduce the cap hit for the rookie contract. 

3. They will trade a pick or two for picks next year. We really don't need 9 rookies this season. Or the playing time to develop them all. 

4. Lions will double up at a position. They doubled up at DT in 2021 and tripled up at EDGE in 2022. I think OL could be a position this happens with so many question marks with our guards and increase in OL contracts. 

5. Lions will draft a WR but not early. Despite Jameson missing 6 games, Marvin, ARSB, Reynolds, Raymond is enough to tie us over. No need to divert from the plan. 

6. Brad Holmes will draft another HBCU player. With the success of James Houston and the attention of the HBCU combine, Holmes will go back to this well. Aubrey Miller and Isaiah Land are two guys to keep an eye on. 

I'm stealing some of this and spinning off:

1. If the Lions stay at #6, one of CJ Stroud, Jalen Carter or Devon Witherspoon will be a Lion. 

2. Lions will trade down from #18 to the end of the first or get a 2023 2nd + 2024 1st

3. They will trade a pick or two for picks next year - I'm guessing 5-7 picks total

4. Lions will double up at a position. I'm feeling we'll double up on DB (2 CB or 1 CB/1 S) and OL (At least 1 OG, also probably a flex OG/OT)

5. Lions will draft a WR but not early - 2nd/3rd round plus a veteran addition (either via trade or FA from a post-draft cut candidate). 

6. Brad Holmes will draft another HBCU player. With the success of James Houston and the attention of the HBCU combine, Holmes will go back to this well. Aubrey Miller and Isaiah Land are two guys to keep an eye on. >>> I'd be looking at Land and maybe seeing if he could play inside. He's pretty light at 236 to play on the edge. Miller tested really poorly but he graded really well on PFF (as did fellow JState alum James Houston).  

[Louis Friend]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

I'd be looking at Land and maybe seeing if he could play inside. He's pretty light at 236 to play on the edge. Miller tested really poorly but he graded really well on PFF (as did fellow JState alum James Houston).  

I would definitely be moving Land to OLB and put him in sub packages rushing the passer. 

[Karnage84]

18 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

I would definitely be moving Land to OLB and put him in sub packages rushing the passer. 

Does anyone know what James Houston ACTUALLY weighs? Lions website has him listed at 225. ESPN has him at 241. He looks bigger than 225 to me.

[Louis Friend]

17 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Does anyone know what James Houston ACTUALLY weighs? Lions website has him listed at 225. ESPN has him at 241. He looks bigger than 225 to me.

He is listed as 241lbs from pre-draft measurements. I'd say he's closer to that than 225. 

[Jameson_Neat]

I still think one of Bijan or AR is a Lion come Thursday night. Also, Ventrell Miller and Sirvocea Dennis seem like the type of guys the Lions' covet day three.  Maybe Henley if he makes it to their pick in R3.

Also, while I don't follow the draft as closely as some of you, I've watched the draft since the late 80s.  I can't remember a draft that is this unpredictable.

 

[Louis Friend]

6 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said:

I can't remember a draft that is this unpredictable.

Same. Those Millen years were unpredictable but for completely different reasons. 🤣

[Dr A W Niloc]

      This is going to be a weird draft.  As in Ray Guy with his foot in a cast during Round #1 weird.

      For starters, there will likely be fewer trades than usual because the best QB is injured.  All five QBs will be gone by the 20th pick, with the possible exception of Anthony Richardson [who might survive until Baltimore at #26 if Tennessee demurs at #11].  There will be fewer OTs going early than expected.  There rates to be more defenders than offensive players going in Round #1.

      As impressive as Brad's free agency has been, let's not forget his 2022 draft, which would have been considered epic in any normal year (i.e. without Kansas City and Baltimore having glow-in-the-dark hauls).

      I predict Holmes will stick to the script with [gulp!] DT Jalen Carter at #6.  At #18 I expect him to fill the other primary defensive need with DE Myles Murphy or the Luk Ness Monster.  If both are gone or if Holmes is feeling frisky he will call an audible and take QB Hendon Hooker [before Tampa Bay can].

      At #48 and #55 he will grab CB Kelee Ringo and LB Jack Cambell (or undervalued Edger Derick Hall, if they took Hooker at #18).

      At #81 Brad will be sorely tempted by WR Rashee Rice before making the Obscure Pick of the Draft:  TE Tucker Kraft.  After that some depth and CYA choices:

Pick Coll PFF  Buzz 40Yd  Power List      College   Pstn  Sch  Tall Lbs
     Rank DTk*
 6th  1st 2nd  91.9 4.96  Jalen Carter    Georgia    DT1  Evn  6'3" 310
18th 13th 6th  91.1 4.57  Myles Murphy    Clemson  DEdg1   -8  6'5" 275
 or: 30th  16  85.4 4.81  Lukas Van Ness  Iowa       DL1   -5  6'5" 275
 or:  4th  89  88.1 4.77  Hendon Hooker   Tenn       QB5  Evn  6'4" 218
48th  1st  45  89.5 4.35  Kelee Ringo     Georgia    CB3  Evn  6'2" 205
55th 30th  49  85.4 4.70  Jack Campbell   Iowa       LB6   -5  6'5" 243
 or: 45th  67  87.1 4.56  Derick Hall     Auburn   DEdg7  +30  6'3" 256
81st ---- 132* 82.0 4.77 :Tucker Kraft    SDakotaS   TE8  ---  6'5" 255
152. 33rd  96  83.0 4.95  Kobie Turner    WakeFrst   DT7  -13  6'3" 290
159.  5th 223  79.3 4.65  SirVocea Dennis Pitt      ILB6  -18  6'1" 230
183. 43rd 125  80.5 4.29  Tyler Scott     Cinci    SWR25  -20  5'11 185
194, ---- 120  81.5 4.29  Andrei Iosivas  Princtn   WR32  ---  6'3" 200

      IMHO, if Holmes comes home with anything close to this Detroit should be a solid contender in the NFC-North, if not the favorite.

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Dr A W Niloc

[Superduperman]

5 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

3. They will trade a pick or two for picks next year. We really don't need 9 rookies this season. Or the playing time to develop them all. 

4. Lions will double up at a position. They doubled up at DT in 2021 and tripled up at EDGE in 2022. I think OL could be a position this happens with so many question marks with our guards and increase in OL contracts.

I like these ones. I too expect them to take a OL in the first two rounds and one in rounds 5-6. I think they'll both be guards or at least a G and a tackle who can play guard.

[rob_shadows]

17 minutes ago, Superduperman said:

I like these ones. I too expect them to take a OL in the first two rounds and one in rounds 5-6. I think they'll both be guards or at least a G and a tackle who can play guard.

Speaking of offensive lineman does anyone know much about Sidy Sow? I was looking though the late round OL guys in one of the mock draft simulators and his athleticism is insane but I have no idea if he's shown any real potential to play as I never watched a single Eastern Michigan game.