2023 NFL Draft Day 3 Discussion

[Old Guy]

7 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

JSN.  He really isn't a top 15 WR.  Just not athletic enough.  

Only reason I'm on that train is because he would fit really, really well with Doubs and Watson.  Like perfectly.  He'd take pressure off of them and they would really compliment each other.

If it wasn't for Watson and Doubs both being on the team, I'm not taking JSN at #15.

Then there is this...I'm not overly in love with any of the other WR's in the draft that will be had in rounds 2-4.  Tank Dell is probably the one I like the most and he surely does not fit a "typical" WR profile for us.  But man that kid is electric.

So, he would do nothing that a good receiving TE couldn't do. A TE you could get in round 2 or 3 and maybe can block really well also. He's only a notch above Amari Rodgers from an athletic standpoint. We know how that worked out. College is a major step down from the NFL. JSN maybe one od those guys who just doesn't cut it athetically in the NFL. 

I'd take a trade down which would produce Washington and Hyatt over JSN every day. We'd be so much better for it as well. 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Old Guy

[HokieHigh]

1 minute ago, PackFan13 said:

Kinaid is the best TE in the vast majority of boards. He's the only one worth a first-rounder. I realize he will likely not be our pick, we just need to get Washington or LaPorta in the second. 

Packfan13 has entered the bargaining stage of grief before the draft even starts

[Spartacus]

3 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

JSN.  He really isn't a top 15 WR.  Just not athletic enough.  

Only reason I'm on that train is because he would fit really, really well with Doubs and Watson.  Like perfectly.  He'd take pressure off of them and they would really compliment each other.

If it wasn't for Watson and Doubs both being on the team, I'm not taking JSN at #15.

Then there is this...I'm not overly in love with any of the other WR's in the draft that will be had in rounds 2-4.  Tank Dell is probably the one I like the most and he surely does not fit a "typical" WR profile for us.  But man that kid is electric.

He may not ever be a true #1 but you rarely see a guy with his agility and route running skills. He reminds me a little of a pure slot version of Justin Jefferson and Kupp. Not saying he will ever be as good as those two but he has some ELITE characteristics. 

[incognito_man]

8 minutes ago, MacReady said:

And you can give zero credence to the strategy of drafting them in 2 a year before they’re needed?

Did that or did it not work for Adams, Nelson, Cobb, Jennings?

Listen… If Gute was hitting on his other first round picks, literally nobody is questioning this strategy.

The Chiefs are following the exact same strategy and they’ve won two Super Bowls in the past five years. They haven’t drafted a first round WR in 10 years.

Why do you think the Falcons and Lions and Bears and Chargers and Dolphins and Jets and Browns and Jaguars and Vikings and Bengals are the teams constantly drafting receivers in round one, high, and teams like the Patriots, Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Packers don’t draft receivers high?

@incognito_man, I’m not wrong on this. Call receivers a premium position and I don’t care. Say they should be drafted high and that’s when I care.

If we were going into this season without Doubs or Watson, yeah. It would make sense. But we just invested in the position and they’re going in with a full year. There isn’t a Chase prospect in this draft. From what I can gather, this is one of the least top heavy WR drafts in the past five drafts. Any receiver coming in isn’t getting ahead of Watson anyway considering Watson has a full year.

If you were to take your highest grades receiver in rounds 3-5 that’s giving you the same odds of getting an elite WR in 1 at a significant fraction of draft capital value.

I agree that there is potentially a smaller gap between first round WRs and later round WRs in production than there is on other premium positions. But it's not clearly quantified to me, yet, how much of a lower multiplier each position should get based on surplus value relative to a cheaper replacement.

That being said, I think JSN stands alone as the highest probability to contribute the most surplus value at WR early in his career in GB. I'm using a 4yr lens and our roster has the ability to extract a lot of value from a high quality slot WR. I think Zay Flowers is really valuable in that role as well. Perhaps slightly moreso. Overall, both those guys have the chance to add significant surplus value to this squad. I didn't dig enough into later round WRs to quantify that across all positions, though. But draft depth factors in, absolutely.

[MacReady]

Well as always I’ll be hoping teams overdraft receivers so the Packers don’t see the positional value when they’re on the clock.

I still think Jefferson was their guy and if he had been available, Love would be somewhere else.

[Mox]

Just now, MacReady said:

Well as always I’ll be hoping teams overdraft receivers so the Packers don’t see the positional value when they’re on the clock.

I still think Jefferson was their guy and if he had been available, Love would be somewhere else.

I also subscribe to this headcanon.

[incognito_man]

11 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

JSN.  He really isn't a top 15 WR.  Just not athletic enough.  

Only reason I'm on that train is because he would fit really, really well with Doubs and Watson.  Like perfectly.  He'd take pressure off of them and they would really compliment each other.

If it wasn't for Watson and Doubs both being on the team, I'm not taking JSN at #15.

Then there is this...I'm not overly in love with any of the other WR's in the draft that will be had in rounds 2-4.  Tank Dell is probably the one I like the most and he surely does not fit a "typical" WR profile for us.  But man that kid is electric.

JSN is odd in that he is astonishingly agile and has a respectable broad jump. But his 10yd split is shockingly bad for someone with his COD ability. He's elite at transferring energy but terrible at initiating energy. As long as he keeps moving, he's a plus athlete. If he needs to come to a complete stop that doesn't immediately transfer into different motion, he's a dud athlete 

Edited April 27, 2023 by incognito_man

[packfanfb]

1 minute ago, MacReady said:

Well as always I’ll be hoping teams overdraft receivers so the Packers don’t see the positional value when they’re on the clock.

I still think Jefferson was their guy and if he had been available, Love would be somewhere else.

Yea, thankfully we avoided the disaster of getting Jefferson and winning SBs in 2020 and/or 2021. Whew....

[MacReady]

Just now, packfanfb said:

Yea, thankfully we avoided the disaster of getting Jefferson and winning SBs in 2020 and/or 2021. Whew....

I didn’t say that. I would have been fine with Jefferson. Jefferson was 22nd overall. I believe we were trying to trade up to 20th or 21st. So… Fits my narrative, doesn’t fit yours.

Best WR in the NFL 22nd overall? Almost like after 20th, after 24h preferably makes a little sense.

[MacReady]

3 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Yea, thankfully we avoided the disaster of getting Jefferson and winning SBs in 2020 and/or 2021. Whew....

Also, I’ve been on record literally since we drafted Love that any other player there would have given us a Super Bowl. I’ve cited every receiver drafted after that as well as several non-receivers. So nice try but you’re still wrong, haven’t been listening and how’s Corey Littleton?

[PackFan13]

Packers . Picking 13... My favorite number and team. Could they bring me my Ute to give Love his favorite target ever ?

[ThatJerkDave]

55 minutes ago, Kampfgeist said:

La di da Mr. extended pinky drinker.   This is NFL Draft night.  This isn't that kind of fancy schmancy event.   You open a bottle of Old Crow (better yet, you open another bottle of Old Crow) and you annoy everyone in the house by kawing incessantly.    That is NFL Draft night

[packfanfb]

1 minute ago, MacReady said:

I didn’t say that. I would have been fine with Jefferson. Jefferson was 22nd overall. I believe we were trying to trade up to 20th or 21st. So… Fits my narrative, doesn’t fit yours.

Best WR in the NFL 22nd overall? Almost like after 20th, after 24h preferably makes a little sense.

That's fine. The bottom-line is that this "rule" stuff is all non-sense, and frankly, even if we met half-way, all rules have exceptions. Drafting a WR or even a TE for that matter at 13 isn't going to send our franchise into the abyss. It's not some catastrophic decision. Stop being so dramatic. Those players will help our team just as much as the next guy. Now, if you're drafting all WRs and TEs in the 1st every year, then yea, you have a gripe worth hearing, but doing it once in a while is perfectly fine. 

[Old Guy]

9 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Yea, thankfully we avoided the disaster of getting Jefferson and winning SBs in 2020 and/or 2021. Whew....

Why do you think Rodgers would have thrown to him as a rookie? I'm not convinced he would have, regardless of talent. Rodgers and rookie receivers do not mix well. 

By the way, the draft if a long-term play and 2020 may work out for us yet. Being that it's a long-term play, you do not take non-premiums at premium drafting positions. There is no WR in this draft that is a can't miss. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Old Guy

[packfanfb]

Just now, Old Guy said:

Why do you think Rodgers would have thrown to him as a rookie? I'm not convinced he would have, regardless of talent. Rodgers and rookie receivers do not mix well. 

Jefferson was a 5-year vet the minute he stepped on the field. It wouldn't have taken 12 long to figure that out. The "he won't throw to rookies" narrative is overplayed as is, but regardless, it would not have applied to JJ.