2.50 - Jayden Reed [WR; Michigan State]

[Scoremore]

3 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

If Jayden was a Buccaneer right now and we took JSN at 13, we'd all be laughing at a post like this.

Jayden is better than the pre-draft process gave him credit for, but there is a reason JSN went 30 picks before him and it has nothing to do with media hype.

All you have to do is look at the tape.  I didn't like JSN at all.  Reed has better movement skills.  He's also got better speed.  I'm with Incog I didn't like his tape at all.  Nothing stood out to me when watching him.  He was in my opinion one of the most over hyped players going into this draft.  Flowers is pretty damn wicked too but he's small.  Addison way too slight. He's got bust written all over him.  Not that he doesn't move well because he does.  But his body won't hold up.  Both of those guys moved better than JSN.  Whatever I see what I see.  If you want to follow along with the standard rating of the draft industrial complex so be it.  JSN looked rather ordinary to me.   If the Packers would have taken JSN I would have hated the pick.  I just don't like him.  

[incognito_man]

24 minutes ago, squire12 said:

The main WR that consumed the oxygen for discussion were the 4 that ended up as FRP.  then the WR from college teams ranked very high in Hyatt and Tillman.  The supposedly GB HWS thresholds of Mingo, Perry, Ford-Wheaton, Hazelton.

Most overlooked the smaller bodied WR like Reed, Mims, Downs.

I liked Rashee Rice a lot, but GB preferred Reed.

There are probably thresholds that GB likes to see that most fans don't know about or realize exist

Yep, I even knew about Wicks and dug into him a bit in addition to everyone else you mentioned. But don't ever recall seeing Reed mentioned here, and he was a middling grade/pick everywhere else I looked. Didn't see anyone talking him up (like Nagy) until after we had picked him. 

Just was totally under my radar.

[Brat&Beer]

12 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Yep, I even knew about Wicks and dug into him a bit in addition to everyone else you mentioned. But don't ever recall seeing Reed mentioned here, and he was a middling grade/pick everywhere else I looked. Didn't see anyone talking him up (like Nagy) until after we had picked him. 

Just was totally under my radar.

Not on mine either. After the draft though, I did hear a couple people say they had had a 2nd round grade on him ever since the Senior Bowl. Tony Pauline had him #56 overall. Most had him with a 3-4 round grade though. 

[Mr Bad Example]

I dunno, I'm not as on the record as some but I felt JSN was a bit puffed up - I don't dispute those who said he was the best WR in the class, I just think it is a weak-ish wr class....similar to the QB class in that the noted prospect hits 4 put of 5 categories but the 5th one is a big red flag. So JSN got a bit overhyped due to not having any red flags. 

Not that I think JSN won't be a useful player, I just feel like Reed at 50 is a much nicer value than JSN at 13 would've been, and that it isn't a stretch to see Reed being as good as JSN. When I saw GB saying they had "no disqualifiers" on him, that made me feel great about the pick.

[MantyWrestler]

3 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Funny how I was critical of JSN long before any of this developed. Perhaps some people just value different traits than you do and their opinions are just as valid as yours.

The only fault I saw with JSN was flat out speed and injury history. 

Your argument could also be seen as MSU had 0 talent so Reed produced far more where JSN had 2 first round picks in front of him. Doesn’t make Reed a better prospect. 

The way I see it is that Reed is faster, JSN is quicker and more developed as a WR right now. Reed could be better in the long run but has further to go. That’s the real reason JSN is rated higher. Reed needs to first progress as a route runner to JSN’s level, then continue to develop beyond JSN. 

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, Scoremore said:

All you have to do is look at the tape.  I didn't like JSN at all.  Reed has better movement skills.  He's also got better speed.  I'm with Incog I didn't like his tape at all.  Nothing stood out to me when watching him.  He was in my opinion one of the most over hyped players going into this draft.  Flowers is pretty damn wicked too but he's small.  Addison way too slight. He's got bust written all over him.  Not that he doesn't move well because he does.  But his body won't hold up.  Both of those guys moved better than JSN.  Whatever I see what I see.  If you want to follow along with the standard rating of the draft industrial complex so be it.  JSN looked rather ordinary to me.   If the Packers would have taken JSN I would have hated the pick.  I just don't like him.  

Really have nothing to say to this that's not completely condescending to you, but to call the guy with the best agility testing in this entire draft and 99th percentile of any drafts since the tests have been recorded, lacking in movement skills is....an interesting choice. 

JSN had flaws, mainly play strength, playing through press, and long speed. Elite movement skills though, best short area c.o.d and maneuvering in the draft, Flowers is the only one close.

Hard to trust post draft evaluations of people who just straight dump guys the Packers didn't draft. 

[Scoremore]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

Really have nothing to say to this that's not completely condescending to you, but to call the guy with the best agility testing in this entire draft and 99th percentile of any drafts since the tests have been recorded lacking in movement skills is....an interesting choice. 

JSN had flaws, mainly play strength, playing through press, and long speed. Elite movement skills though, best short area c.o.d and maneuvering in the draft, Flowers is the only one close.

Hard to trust post draft evaluations of people who just straight dump guys the Packers didn't draft. 

Just looking at the tape not his measurables.  We'll see.  Let's have this discussion in 3 years and see who is the better pro. 

[incognito_man]

58 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

The only fault I saw with JSN was flat out speed and injury history. 

Your argument could also be seen as MSU had 0 talent so Reed produced far more where JSN had 2 first round picks in front of him. Doesn’t make Reed a better prospect. 

The way I see it is that Reed is faster, JSN is quicker and more developed as a WR right now. Reed could be better in the long run but has further to go. That’s the real reason JSN is rated higher. Reed needs to first progress as a route runner to JSN’s level, then continue to develop beyond JSN. 

Disagree STRONGLY about JSN being "more developed". He had one year of production compared to 4 for Reed. I think JSN is a slot only guy. I think Reed can contribute a lot more elsewhere immediately.

I don't agree JSN is a better route runner at all.

Edited May 6, 2023 by incognito_man

[Packerraymond]

Just now, Scoremore said:

Just looking at the tape not his measurables.  We'll see.  Let's have this discussion in 3 years and see who is the better pro. 

The tape shows the same thing. The guy went round 1 with 4.5 speed. What is there to like with middling long speed and no movement skills? How'd this guy post 1600 yards in the Big 10 and the best yards per route run in the PFF grading era in 2021 with no skills? 

[incognito_man]

6 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Really have nothing to say to this that's not completely condescending to you, but to call the guy with the best agility testing in this entire draft and 99th percentile of any drafts since the tests have been recorded, lacking in movement skills is....an interesting choice. 

JSN had flaws, mainly play strength, playing through press, and long speed. Elite movement skills though, best short area c.o.d and maneuvering in the draft, Flowers is the only one close.

Hard to trust post draft evaluations of people who just straight dump guys the Packers didn't draft. 

You're way too sensitive about being GB pick vs not. There were a number of guys critical of JSN long before the draft when he was strongly linked to us. And a lot of people critical of guys we did draft. 

I've been ****ting on Musgrave that whole thread for example and he was taken ahead of Reed. Your analysis here is pretty lazy TBH.

[Mr. Fussnputz]

1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

The tape shows the same thing. The guy went round 1 with 4.5 speed. What is there to like with middling long speed and no movement skills? How'd this guy post 1600 yards in the Big 10 and the best yards per route run in the PFF grading era in 2021 with no skills? 

Are these rhetorical questions?

[Packerraymond]

Just now, incognito_man said:

You're way too sensitive about being GB pick vs not. There were a number of guys critical of JSN long before the draft when he was strongly linked to us. And a lot of people critical of guys we did draft. 

I've been ****ting on Musgrave that whole thread for example and he was taken ahead of Reed. Your analysis here is pretty lazy TBH.

I'm calling both of your takes ridiculous, because they are. No one studied these two pre-draft and said, Reed is a 1st round grade and better than JSN, because that would just be a lousy analysis, now one of them is a Packer and that's what we're saying.

Reed could have a better career than JSN, would never argue that. Things get a bit more random once you enter the league. I never thought for the life of me that Mike Daniels would be far superior to Jerel Worthy or MVS would be the steal and not EQ, or that Quentin Rollins basketball background that immediately showed up on tape as a college football player would die out the minute he got into the league and he'd be a total bust. Doesn't change the fact that as of April 27th 2023 there was no debate anywhere about Reed being superior to JSN, because that would've been a fruitless argument.

I really don't care about JSN and I wasn't huge on him predraft, but if we're going to give opinions of prospects before the draft and want to be taken seriously, we can't go putting the 60th best player in the draft ahead of the 20th when your favorite team takes them.

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

I'm calling both of your takes ridiculous, because they are. No one studied these two pre-draft and said, Reed is a 1st round grade and better than JSN, because that would just be a lousy analysis, now one of them is a Packer and that's what we're saying.

Reed could have a better career than JSN, would never argue that. Things get a bit more random once you enter the league. I never thought for the life of me that Mike Daniels would be far superior to Jerel Worthy or MVS would be the steal and not EQ, or that Quentin Rollins basketball background that immediately showed up on tape as a college football player would die out the minute he got into the league and he'd be a total bust. Doesn't change the fact that as of April 27th 2023 there was no debate anywhere about Reed being superior to JSN, because that would've been a fruitless argument.

I really don't care about JSN and I wasn't huge on him predraft, but if we're going to give opinions of prospects before the draft and want to be taken seriously, we can't go putting the 60th best player in the draft ahead of the 20th when your favorite team takes them.

This take is ridiculous. Your numbers are arbitrary. You ignored the cogent point. If it's an issue of simply talking up the guy your team drafted, we'd also be saying Musgrave is ahead of Kincaid. Since that's not occuring, your point is illogical and you are wrong.

[Packerraymond]

7 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

This take is ridiculous. Your numbers are arbitrary. You ignored the cogent point. If it's an issue of simply talking up the guy your team drafted, we'd also be saying Musgrave is ahead of Kincaid. Since that's not occuring, your point is illogical and you are wrong.

You've stated Reed is your favorite pick, which is why you've applied massive amounts of helium to his name to put him in a category he doesn't belong in.

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

You've stated Reed is your favorite pick, which is why you've applied massive amounts of helium to his name to put him in a category he doesn't belong in.

Yes. He's my favorite pick because he looks really really good...not because he's a Packer.

And he belongs in that same conversation as Zay Flowers and JSN as a prospect. Regardless of who took him. 

I was also the first person on here I saw mention Forbes as a first round pick. I still think he's really really good even though he's not a Packer. 

I like good players, regardless of who drafts them. I praised the Bears selection of Wright, even though I cooled on him after hearing the PFF blurb. I dislike bad players regardless of who drafts them. 

Edited May 6, 2023 by incognito_man