2018 Draft Prospects

[TankWilliams]

4 minutes ago, G08 said:

So neither of you can derive from that post the fact that drafting a guard in the top 8 is a waste? Okay then. Guards are a dime a dozen.

So you are saying that Quentin Nelson or Zack Martin essentially the same as a "dime a dozen" player"?  Just because you can find an adequate one later doesn't mean you don't want a damn good one...

[G08]

21 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

So you are saying that Quentin Nelson or Zack Martin essentially the same as a "dime a dozen" player"?  Just because you can find an adequate one later doesn't mean you don't want a damn good one...

The latter to me is false. If you offer me a Hall of Fame guard at #8 or a solid guard at #39, I'm taking #39.

Edited April 20, 2018 by G08

[TankWilliams]

2 minutes ago, G08 said:

The latter to me is false. If you offer me a Hall of Fame guard at #8 or a solid guard at #39, I'm taking #39.

That is absolutely insane.  We must have different definitions of solid, because to me that means just good enough to not need immediate replacing.

[TankWilliams]

Do not get me wrong.  I would be happy with Davenport or going somewhere other than guard at 8.  But to discount Nelson just because he's a guard and you could maybe get someone solid later is not doing his level of talent justice.   

[G08]

21 minutes ago, TankWilliams said:

That is absolutely insane.  We must have different definitions of solid, because to me that means just good enough to not need immediate replacing.

I don't think it is, at all.

The difference between a Hall of Fame QB and a solid QB is paramount on the field.

The difference between a Hall of Fame pass rusher and a solid pass rusher is paramount on the field.

The difference between a Hall of Fame OG and a solid OG is not much on the field.

 

You replace a banged up Kyle Long with Steve Hutchinson in his prime and we don't win any more games than we did last season. Unless you think we would have?

[G08]

Top 5 scoring teams in 2017 and when their starting OGs were drafted:

Rams - 2nd round and 3rd round

Patriots - 3rd round and 4th round

Eagles - 3rd round and 3rd round

Saints - 1st round and 3rd round

Jaguars - Undrafted and Undrafted

[TankWilliams]

30 minutes ago, G08 said:

I don't think it is, at all.

The difference between a Hall of Fame QB and a solid QB is paramount on the field.

The difference between a Hall of Fame pass rusher and a solid pass rusher is paramount on the field.

The difference between a Hall of Fame OG and a solid OG is not much on the field.

 

You replace a banged up Kyle Long with Steve Hutchinson in his prime and we don't win any more games than we did last season. Unless you think we would have?

No, but there is alot more at play than that question.  Coaching, injuries, etc.  I certainly think OL stability wins games.  Having a HOF level OG will certainly elevate the play of those next to him, and I think that is more valuable than you are seeing.  

[Sugashane]

18 minutes ago, G08 said:

Top 5 scoring teams in 2017 and when their starting OGs were drafted:

Rams - 2nd round and 3rd round (1st overall pick on QB)

Patriots - 3rd round and 4th round (HoF and likely GOAT)

Eagles - 3rd round and 3rd round (2nd overall pick at QB and was going to be MVP last season pre-injury)

Saints - 1st round and 3rd round (HoF QB and possibly top 5 QB all time)

Jaguars - Undrafted and Undrafted (Ummm... Bortles)

One of these sticks out like Christian Laettner on the Dream Team.

 

 

[dll2000]

25 minutes ago, G08 said:

 

 

You replace a banged up Kyle Long with Steve Hutchinson in his prime and we don't win any more games than we did last season. Unless you think we would have?

This is an interesting point and I agree, but replace Wright with Jerry Rice and they probably don't win any more games last year either - maybe a couple of close ones.  A bad team needs more than one player for big improvement unless player is Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or the like at their heights.  

However, a great guard can be an outstanding piece if overall team is better.  A team with a dominant OL is really tough to stop no matter the other skill positions.  It can cover up so many other things.  It made Emit Smith into all time leading rusher when he was probably never better than 4th best back in any year he played.  It made Denver trot out seemingly best RB in the league for like 4 years.   It made a rookie Dak Prescott look like an all star in 2016 when in reality he really probably wasn't that good.

That being said I don't want them to draft Nelson first.  

 

[Sugashane]

4 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

This is an interesting point and I agree, but replace Wright with Jerry Rice and they probably don't win any more games last year either - maybe a couple of close ones.  A bad team needs more than one player for big improvement unless player is Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or the like at their heights.  

However, a great guard can be an outstanding piece if overall team is better.  A team with a dominant OL is really tough to stop no matter the other skill positions.  It can cover up so many other things.  It made Emit Smith into all time leading rusher when he was probably never better than 4th best back in any year he played.  It made Denver trot out seemingly best RB in the league for like 4 years.   It made a rookie Dak Prescott look like an all star in 2016 when in reality he really probably wasn't that good.

That being said I don't want them to draft Nelson first.  

 

 

 I disagree there bud. Trubisky had decent protection, but lacked talent to pass to. Rice could have at least given him a consistent target and would have been more valuable than any 2 WRs we had last year combined. All the drops we had, especially in the end zone last year. The bulk of those go to Rice and are caught.

 

Granted, Tru wouldn't throw for 4500 yards and have a 25/12 TD INT ratio or anything ridiculous, but with Rice we win one of the MIN games, a GB game, and beat SF IMO.

 

Second paragraph though, I completely agree with. Though Irvin and skill position players also made it easier on the RBs and QBs too.

Edited April 20, 2018 by Sugashane

[topwop1]

1 hour ago, G08 said:

The latter to me is false. If you offer me a Hall of Fame guard at #8 or a solid guard at #39, I'm taking #39.

Do you still take this offer with the caveat that the player you take at #8 instead has a 50/50 chance of being a hit or miss and will likely not be a hall of famer?

[G08]

6 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

Do you still take this offer with the caveat that the player you take at #8 instead has a 50/50 chance of being a hit or miss and will likely not be a hall of famer?

I do because I'm still getting a solid OG at #39.

[G08]

I feel strongly about it but everyone has different perspectives when it comes to building a football team and/or where they want to allocate their resources. Andy Reid once said, and I completely subscribe to this approach, give me a QB, 2 tackles, 2 pass rushers, 2 corners and I'll figure out the rest.

QB - Trubisky (GOAT... or something like that lol)

Tackles - Leno (fine with me) Massie (could use an upgrade)

Pass Rushers - Leonard Floyd (meh thus far and can't seem to stay healthy) Acho (meh) Lynch (MEH)

Corners - Fuller (ascending) Amukamara (solid)

 

On this alone I think we could use 2 more pass rushers, honestly, before we need to pump top 8 picks into OG. That's just me though.

Edited April 20, 2018 by G08

[topwop1]

9 minutes ago, G08 said:

I feel strongly about it but everyone has different perspectives when it comes to building a football team and/or where they want to allocate their resources. Andy Reid once said, and I completely subscribe to this approach, give me a QB, 2 tackles, 2 pass rushers, 2 corners and I'll figure out the rest.

QB - Trubisky (GOAT... or something like that lol)

Tackles - Leno (fine with me) Massie (could use an upgrade)

Pass Rushers - Leonard Floyd (meh thus far and can't seem to stay healthy) Acho (meh) Lynch (MEH)

Corners - Fuller (ascending) Amukamara (solid)

 

On this alone I think we could use 2 more pass rushers, honestly, before we need to pump top 8 picks into OG. That's just me though.

I agree that pass rusher is more of pressing need but in the end it should all depend on where Pace, his scouts and the coaches have these guys ranked on their big board.

As long as they stick to their board and don't take someone they have rated lower overall at a position of need versus the actual BPA on their board (non-QB) then it makes sense.

ie. Say that Chubb is their #1 target and he's gone by pick 8, then the next highest rated player that is available on their board is t Nelson but Davenport is also sitting there, although they have him ranked as the 2nd next best player on their board behind Nelson, I fully expect them to take Nelson, as they should, otherwise this whole pre-draft scouting process they go through is a sham.

[G08]

For sure, I don't think they should detract from their board or how they have stacked players.

Just in talking to and reading from people that did this for a living, I got the impression that they look at pockets of talent and where they can find quality players in the draft. For example, I think the EDGE talent falls off a cliff after Chubb/Davenport/Landry whereas I believe there is one elite iOL in Nelson, but quite a few other talented iOL that could be solid starters (Billy Price, James Daniels, Isaiah Wynn, Will Hernandez, Austin Corbett, Frank Ragnow, etc).

So what do you do? If you have Nelson graded as a 9.9 and Davenport as a 9.7, do you still take Nelson knowing that the best EDGE you can get at pick #39 is (I'm just throwing out a number here for the sake of this example) 8.4? Or do you draft Davenport and at #39 pick from a pool of iOL that, at minimum, you have ranked at 9.3?

For me? Give me the pass rusher and an iOL that Hiestand loves in round 2 every single time.

Pace has his board and I'm sure by the time the draft comes around he's going to have myriad approaches based on who he wants and can get in round 1, it's like a cascade that occurs based on the first player taken. Just playing it out in my head (and my GOD am I sick of it at this point lol) I think the best bang for our buck is trading down and getting Davenport or Landry and then going iOL in round 2. If we can't trade down or don't want to risk it, then I want the pass rusher.

If we do go Nelson? I'd probably trade down in round 2 and look for someone like Arden Key (assuming his character checks out), Kemoko Turay (love him), Lorenzo Carter (something just seems off about him to me when I watch him, but you can't deny the athleticism). I think you can get someone like Dorance Armstrong on day 3... talented kid I just wish he had more juice.

Edited April 20, 2018 by G08