2024 NFL Draft

[RaidersForever]

19 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

It's not, other than developmental aspects of it. At 24, they are closer to their ceiling. I feel like I know who Nix, Penix and Daniels are as QBs at their age. Is there another level?

I'd rather have a JJ McCarthy type at age 20 developing in my offense with a higher ceiling. 

     With Penix, I have three questions:

     1. How will the ACLs/MCLs hold up in the NFL?

     2. Was he a product of a system?

     3. Did it take him 6 years to finally put it all together as a QB -- and if so, why?

     Obviously context is important for the last two questions, hence why scouting and deep-diving are neccesary. I still think McCarthy is a better long-term prospect -- but I've also been doubting Penix all season, and yet he has his team one win away from being National Champions (then again, so does McCarthy). 🤷‍♂️

Edited January 3 by RaidersForever

[ronjon1990]

29 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Anyone who thinks Cam Ward is a first round pick, I seriously question you. He couldn't get the 1 mil NIL deal he was after and decided to go to the draft. Schools wouldn't offer him 1 million in NIL, to be their QB but some of you are calling him a first round pick? 

He's a system QB with a fumbling problem . He's got a 5th round grade with scouts currently. He's this drafts Dorrian Thompson Robinson

Everyone tends to overrate QBs who are athletic because they make flashy plays against bad competition. You watch Ward against UCLA and they made him look undraftable.

 

Malik Willis comes to mind. Did any reputable source ever give him a 1st round grade or was it all chatter from the crowd that likes RBs who can throw a little? 

[big_palooka]

22 minutes ago, RaidersForever said:

     With Penix, I have three questions:

     1. How will the ACLs/MCLs hold up in the NFL?

     2. Was he a product of a system?

     3. Did it take him 6 years to finally put it all together as a QB -- and if so, why?

     Obviously context is important for the last two questions, hence why scouting and deep-diving are neccesary. I still think McCarthy is a better long-term prospect -- but I've also been doubting Penix all season, and yet he has his team one win away from being National Champions (then again, so does McCarthy). 🤷‍♂️

1. He's had 2 healthy seasons now. Still a concern to the point you can't pencil him in as a 10 year starter. 

2. Partly. I've softened my stance on him some as he's showing the ability to hit throws with accuracy down field. 

3. Combination of scheme. Elite Oline protection and Sunday WRs on the outside.

I don't think Penix is a product of the system so as a part of it. He's put a lot of good throws on tape now. He's playing with an all-star group at UW. He doesn't get a lot of pressure so we've not seen him in those situations. The offense is engineered to be QB friendly and has a top 5 WR in it. What is he without those variables? 

[ronjon1990]

1 minute ago, RaidersForever said:

     With Penix, I have three questions:

     1. How will the ACLs/MCLs hold up in the NFL?

     2. Was he a product of a system?

     3. Did it take him 6 years to finally put it all together as a QB -- and if so, why?

     Obviously context is important for the last two questions, hence why scouting and deep-diving are neccesary. I still think McCarthy is a better long-term prospect -- but I've also been doubting Penix all season, and yet he has his team one win away from being National Champions (then again, so does McCarthy). 🤷‍♂️

1. I think they'll hold up fine enough. If he were more reliant on his mobility, I'd be more concerned. Guys come.back from ACLs in the same season nowadays, granted those are usually the initial tear, not subsequent. Definitely a bit of a gamble though. 

2. On one hand, who isn't part of a system? An OC's job is to put his QB in the best position so when people say "his WRs were schemed open", I tend to go "And? Did he get them the ball?". On the other hand, he had some fanatic weapons around him, another part of the system if you will, that gave a bit of an edge to Washington's offense in general. Much like LSU with Burrow and his group, the question naturally becomes was it Burrow, was it his WRs, was it a group effort? Thing is, you never really know the answer until after it's too late. So long as someone isn't running an Air Raid or triple option, I personally can't say I worry. 

3. This is the big one, imo, because it sort of taps into points 1 and 2. It took him a while to put it all together because he got seriously injured twice and transferred. Injuries happen. He's been able to stay healthy at Washington and we've covered that. So it really boils down to how one feels about the transfer and subsequent ascension. I'd stand by the notion that he didn't flop at Indiana, a real offensive powerhouse lol, like a DJU did at Clemson and transfer out of necessity in order to play. Once at UW, with better weapons than he ever had at Indiana, he blew up, ironically with his 2019 OC in DeBoer. I think, for me, the injuries and Indiana's roster pretty well cover why it took him time. The jump in production wasn't just a slight uptick, and he wasn't just good at UW. Dude was GREAT and it happened pretty well immediately. 

Not to be corny or rabbit hole on "what if's", but it makes me wonder what would have been if Penix transferred to UW with DeBoer as HC in 2019 instead of 2022. UW has had some good weapons. The transfer portal hadn't run wild yet and simply put, nobody was chomping at the bit to get Indiana's injured QB into their program- except DeBoer. So while it took him 5 years to finally put it all together (discounting the flashes he showed at Indiana, because well, a lot of guys show flashes), I think an argument could be made that it just took that long for him to get a real shot after getting stuck on a bad team and then injured. I don't think it's necessarily a negative mark on Penix as a QB in that case, though as @big_palooka points out, there is the real concern that he may be a mostly finished product where what you see is what you get as a result. 

I love Penix's game myself. I think he's a plug and play QB who can walk right in and be productive in the NFL. He's already faced a good deal of adversity so I don’t question his capability to adjust. But you don't draft Penix with the hope of untapped potential or for the upside ceiling because it's probably just not there. If you're chasing the dragon that will supplant Patrick Mahomes as the undisputed QB1, you don't draft him. If you're of the persuasion that you have to have a Top 5 QB to have any shot at winning a Superbowl, you probably shouldn't draft him. If you're looking at a 2-3 year rebuild, you probably shouldn't draft him. But if you think you have the pieces in place and are a QB away from serious contention or you're soon to replace an aged out starter like Russell Wilson. Matt Stafford, or Kirk Cousins, you could do much worse than Penix. 

For us, I think he could work (OC and system still being TBD of course). The knock on him often being "he played with great WRs at Washington", well, we have the best WR in football and both Meyers and Tucker are pretty damn good too. Ugly as can be, but we damn near made the playoffs with a backup QB who may top out as mid-tier QB2 if everything works out for him. We've hung in and beat or contended with some of the best teams in the league despite some of the worst QB play I've ever seen (aside from AOC not turning the ball over a lot). I think we would be a fantastic landing spot for Penix to come in and ball out.

Now, is he going to top Mahomes or Herbert in consensus QB rankings? Nope. That would be shocking. But Mahomes has the Chiefs strapped for cash and they just got very very close to missing the playoffs altogether this year (my goodness if we were a better team by a couple of the close losses). And Herbert, regardless of how good a QB he is, hasn't been able to elevate the Chargers out of mediocrity (though maybe he still can). Point is, we can totally have QB3 in the AFCW and be perfectly competitive. Hell, I think we're rock solid with top 15 QB play so long as it’s aggressive top 15 play, not an overly conservative top 15 type. 

I look around the league and see quite a few non-top tier guys who would have likely made a huge difference for us this year- Goff, Love, Flacco, Browning, Mayfield, Howell, Smith- amd that's just guys who haven't been injured most of the year. I think Penix is at least on par or close to with Goff who I think is the best of that bunch, and I genuinely believe we're at least a 10 win team with Goff, just as I think the Lions have about as good a shot as anyone to win the Superbowl this year outside of Baltimore- and ya know what? I think our defense and pass rush would have at least a decent shot at neutralizing Lamar Jackson in the playoffs if given the chance. So I'd be perfectly happy taking Penix in round 1. If we got stupid lucky and were able to wait to later in the 1st or even into round 2 while getting a stud at a different position in round 1, I wouldn't even care about the rest of the draft. I think we're a solidly good QB away, but I'm not really interested in chasing QB rankings. Just my 2 cents. 

[agarcia34]

If you do like Penix if you’re the Raiders that’s a trade up into the first round pick. You get him a OT to protect him and finally start to take the OL serious and then move up for him. Same for Bo

[ronjon1990]

48 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

If you do like Penix if you’re the Raiders that’s a trade up into the first round pick. You get him a OT to protect him and finally start to take the OL serious and then move up for him. Same for Bo

I'd be cool trading upwards from the 40's. 

Wish Renfrow and Jacobs were tradeable still. The comp from one of them and 40-whatever would've been enough to bump back into round 1. 

I wonder who we have that we could trade that still has value and we could likely replace. Wonder if anyone is interested in Tyree? Koonce and Max need to be the starters and I'm not sold that we couldn't replace a backup Edge or DT whatever he settles at. 

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, big_palooka said:

1. He's had 2 healthy seasons now. Still a concern to the point you can't pencil him in as a 10 year starter. 

2. Partly. I've softened my stance on him some as he's showing the ability to hit throws with accuracy down field. 

3. Combination of scheme. Elite Oline protection and Sunday WRs on the outside.

I don't think Penix is a product of the system so as a part of it. He's put a lot of good throws on tape now. He's playing with an all-star group at UW. He doesn't get a lot of pressure so we've not seen him in those situations. The offense is engineered to be QB friendly and has a top 5 WR in it. What is he without those variables? 

 

[Humble_Beast]

good read 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/39148003/college-football-top-100-players-2023-season-jayden-daniels-michael-penix-jr

[Darbsk]

13 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

I love Penix's game myself. I think he's a plug and play QB who can walk right in and be productive in the NFL. He's already faced a good deal of adversity so I don’t question his capability to adjust. But you don't draft Penix with the hope of untapped potential or for the upside ceiling because it's probably just not there. If you're chasing the dragon that will supplant Patrick Mahomes as the undisputed QB1, you don't draft him. If you're of the persuasion that you have to have a Top 5 QB to have any shot at winning a Superbowl, you probably shouldn't draft him. If you're looking at a 2-3 year rebuild, you probably shouldn't draft him. But if you think you have the pieces in place and are a QB away from serious contention or you're soon to replace an aged out starter like Russell Wilson. Matt Stafford, or Kirk Cousins, you could do much worse than Penix

This makes a lot of sense and is what I initially see. Good post!

[Darbsk]

Just starting to look over some prospects and is it me or is there a major dip in prospects at DT this year compared to last year? Am I missing something, or is that the general feeling here too?

[NYRaider]

On 1/3/2024 at 8:16 AM, big_palooka said:

It's not, other than developmental aspects of it. At 24, they are closer to their ceiling. I feel like I know who Nix, Penix and Daniels are as QBs at their age. Is there another level?

I'd rather have a JJ McCarthy type at age 20 developing in my offense with a higher ceiling. 

The biggest issue that I have with older prospects is that it's concerning when guys can't put up numbers against guys their age and then dominate when they're significantly older than everyone they're playing against.

[NYRaider]

On 1/3/2024 at 8:05 AM, big_palooka said:

Anyone who thinks Cam Ward is a first round pick, I seriously question you. He couldn't get the 1 mil NIL deal he was after and decided to go to the draft. Schools wouldn't offer him 1 million in NIL, to be their QB but some of you are calling him a first round pick? 

He's a system QB with a fumbling problem . He's got a 5th round grade with scouts currently. He's this drafts Dorrian Thompson Robinson

Everyone tends to overrate QBs who are athletic because they make flashy plays against bad competition. You watch Ward against UCLA and they made him look undraftable.

 

Cam Ward was booty last season

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, Darbsk said:

Just starting to look over some prospects and is it me or is there a major dip in prospects at DT this year compared to last year? Am I missing something, or is that the general feeling here too?

I like Newton and Sweat but I think it's a pretty weak class for interior DL.

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

I like Newton and Sweat but I think it's a pretty weak class for interior DL.

It definitely is. There's mostly some "bodies", but very few guys you'd consider as game wreckers. 

Type of class where you go ahead and take an IDL if you really need one and they're far and away BPA considering your other needs, but not one where you take an IDL in spite of other needs. Probably just as well served checking the FA/trade market for the most part. 

Newton and Sweat are good. Murphy and Taylor are sort of just there. Everyone else is about as ho-hum as can be, imo.

[NickButera]

On 1/3/2024 at 6:35 AM, RaidersForever said:

  

     2. Was he a product of a system?

     

If there's one thing to know about Penix, is that his strength, and by strength I mean the one thing that's making him a first round pick, is his god like accuracy. The guy just puts the ball where it needs to be, and he's better at anyone else in he draft at that. If there's one QB this draft who you could trust throwing from the pocket, it's Penix. 

So, no, he's not a product of a system, at least that's not what's skyrocketing his value anyway.