2024 NFL Draft

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[MrOaktown_56]

15 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

 

I think even 3 could be possible if Arizona gets it together or New England decides they actually can score more than 15 a game (like last game).

[Jerry]

1 hour ago, RaidersAreOne said:

 

I'd rather we get the fourth pick in the draft than to win the rest of our games this year.

[big_palooka]

1 hour ago, ronjon1990 said:

I fail to see how it's misguided. It's a statistical fact that QBs taken 1, 2, or 3 over the last decade have largely busted or severely underwhelmed. That's not even a subjective argument. And not every team that has picked a QB 1 or 2 and/or traded up to get there has been a trash organization. 

Won't judge the QBs in year 2 or less. The last 5 drafts, you notice a pattern:

2021: 

Lawrence

Wilson

Lance 

2020:

 Burrow 

2019:

Murray 

2018:

Mayfield

Darnold

2017: 

Trubisky

The only miss by decent franchise is Lance. 

Jets, Browns, Bears on repeat. 

 

[big_palooka]

1 hour ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I think even 3 could be possible if Arizona gets it together or New England decides they actually can score more than 15 a game (like last game).

To bad this organization is to proud to simply let the tank happen. They will fight like hell to beat Easton Stick on Thursday for the feel goodery of it all. This team can't even lose right. 

[Geezy]

7 hours ago, big_palooka said:

As much as I love Maye....

Because the past two regimes, lead by coaches making final say, couldn't draft doesn't mean you resolve to mortgage the future. I'd take McCarthy and three future firsts to build around him.

Regardless, I think we will have to move up. With how many QB needy teams there are and our glaring need at QB, I don’t think we can afford to stand pat and hope he falls to us. 

[Geezy]

7 hours ago, Nightmare said:

I think we're going to have to wait and see how things play out before we know if we'll be in a position to trade up.

Things to watch:
- How the Bears play, and more specifically Justin Fields. If they win some more games down the stretch they might stick with Fields, and that's one less team to compete with for a QB.
- Same as above with the Cardinals and Kyler Murray. Another team who potentially won't be looking for a QB and are a potential trade partner.
- What happens with the Jets. It sounds like they're going to be heavily in play for Davante Adams to re-partner him with Rodgers next season, and I'd say ideally we want them to lose out as it gives us more potential ammunition to use in a trade up.
- The Titans in general - there's a chance they clean house, and if Vrabel goes, does the next man up want his own QB instead of Levis? Ideally I think we want the Titans to win as many games as possible, 1) to finish further down the draft order than us, and 2) to retain Vrabel who would likely stick with Levis next season.

There are plenty of other things to keep an eye on as well, in terms of hoping bad teams keep winning games to allow us to move higher in the draft, but I think those above are the keys.

Also, can't forget to mention our own place in the mix. We have 4 games left: in the Chargers game we'll go in as favs, and whilst we'll be outsiders at Indy and vs Denver, they are still winnable games too. Only the Chiefs is a guaranteed loss right now. The team (and especially the defense) are playing hard and I can't see us losing out, which will affect our draft position as well.

 

TL;DR - I'm totally on board trading up for one of the best QB prospects in this draft, but there's a LOT to fall into place before we know how likely that possibility will be.

I’m usually not a fan of trading up, but there are so many QB needy teams out there and I think it’s time we go and get our guy. Every years, it’s some random team making a move, no one say Carolina moving up from 9. I think we are a good enough team, where a QB can take us to the next level and also be good enough around him where he can succeed, unlike the Panthers and BY, atm. 

[Nightmare]

Who is definitely taking a QB then? Using the Tankathon graphic posted above, this is that top 14 list:

1. Bears - maybe, depends how the rest of the year goes with Fields
2. Patriots - yes
3. Cardinals - maybe, they might want to stick with Murray
4. Commanders - yes
5. Giants - maybe, they really should but Jones has a stupid big contract which will be tough to shift
6. Titans - maybe, depends on if they get a new HC who wants his own guy
7. Bears - N/A, same as #1
8. Raiders - DUH
9. Jets - no, they probably should but they won’t while Rodgers is there
10. Chargers - definite no
11. Falcons - unlikely, even if they maybe should because Ridder sucks
12. Saints - maybe, same as Titans where they might blow the whole thing up if they miss the playoffs
13. Seahawks - unlikely
14. Rams - unlikely with Stafford still playing well

I’m seeing a lot of teams who might take a QB, along with teams further down the list like the Vikings and Buccaneers, but I actually don’t think there are many ‘definitively 100% guaranteed to take a QB’ teams.

A whole lot of “wait and see” going on with draft positioning and who needs what right now. Gonna be an interesting next few weeks trying to figure it all out.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Nightmare

[Geezy]

We’re going the beat the bolts this week and be pissed about it lol 

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

Won't judge the QBs in year 2 or less. The last 5 drafts, you notice a pattern:

2021: 

Lawrence

Wilson

Lance 

2020:

 Burrow 

2019:

Murray 

2018:

Mayfield

Darnold

2017: 

Trubisky

The only miss by decent franchise is Lance. 

Jets, Browns, Bears on repeat. 

 

That is one way to look at it. 

Here's another:

2021:

Wilson and Lance are busts, and one was more expensive. 

Lawrence isn't a bust, but imagine if a team gave up 3+ 1sts to get him (in this case: Travon Walker and/or Devin Lloyd, Anton Harrison, and 2024 1st or some other picks). His production simply doesn't justify a team trading the farm for. 

2020:

Burrow wasn't traded for, the Bengals tanked and were trying to get rid of Dalton. No massive capital was moved, though this would be one time where a team is probably justified in doing so. 

2019:

Murray has 1 winning season, 1 .500 season, 2 losing seasons, and hasn't started a full season since 2020. His record isn't good, his stats are mid, there are serious questions about his motivation and reliability and work ethic to a memeable level. Again, as with Lawrence, imagine if Arizona used a trade on him (~3 1sts seemingly the going rate: Isaiah Simmons, Zavem Collins, the pick to trade for Marquise Brown; and/or possibly Byron Murphy, Trey McBride, etc if 2nd rounders were used). Definitely would not been worth a fortune to move up for. 

2018:

Mayfield wasn't traded for, but yet again, imagine if he was. Probably requires the 4th overall pick (Denzel Ward) and at least Corbett or Chubb from that class. For a QB on his 3rd team in as many seasons, that would've been a huge letdown. 

Darnold would've cost the Jets Quinnen Williams in a trade. And Darnold sucks. 

2017:

Trubisky would've likely cost the Bears the picks ultimately used to draft Roquan Smith, Jaylon Johnson, and Cole Kmet at least. That franchise is a mess anyway. 

 

Of the 8 QBs named, only one of them would have been worth trading up for- and the team that drafted him didn't have to. The rest would have had fans furious by now and probably cost a HC and GM their job at this point and set franchises back further than they were. 

Lance was the only actual trade there, and imagine where the 9ers would be if not for that pick. It's X-File level unbelievable that that trade didn't set San Francisco back a decade and cost Lynch and Shanahan their jobs. 

No matter how you slice it, trading a fortune to move up into the top 2 or 3 simply isn't justifiable. It's a fool's gamble unless it pays off, and we're batting a .125 at this point....

[NYRaider]

6 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Gotta disagree on this. 

With who will be picking ahead of us, the leverage they hold will be massive. 

Unlike some teams that may screw themselves into picking after us, we don't have nearly the amount of valuable trade chips or a strong enough base of a team to justify moving large amounts assets. 

If the Bears or Pats or whoever are willing to move down, picking 5/6 or 8/9 isn't going to matter if going to 8/9 brings in a bigger, better haul as at that point they're conceding not taking one of Williams or Maye. 

Best move is to let someone else duke it out over Mayfield and Darnold or Lawrence and Wilson while we land Allen or Herbert. 

Why dies everyone think it's totally necessary to give up the farm to move into a top 2 pick to find a QB? 

Mahomes went 10th, Allen 7th, Tua 5th, Herbert 6th, Love 26th, Richardson 4th. That's just recent guys. You're just as likely, if not moreso, to wind up with a bust at QB with a top 2-3 (RG3, Mariota, Wentz, etc) or someone super underwhelming (Lawrence, Goff, Winston, etc) as you are a true franchise guy (Burrow). Why give up so much for those odds? 

I'll say it right now, neither Maye nor Williams are going to revolutionize the QB position. Won't happen. At best, neither is as good as Trevor Lawrence, and I hate to break it to you, but if I gave up a haul for Trevor Lawrence,  I'd be pissed at this point.

To me there's a significant drop off from Maye/Williams to the next group of QBs in this years draft. I think Maye/Williams are both plug and play starters from the rip. I've already displayed the data here numerous times, you basically have like a 50/50 chance of finding an average to franchise QB vs a bust and like a 10% chance of finding a good QB outside of the top 10.

5 of the 7 guys you named are former top 10 picks, lol. You can say that for any position though why draft an edge player high when you can find a Maxx Crosby in the 4th. Or a QB high when you can find Purdy or Brady on day 3?

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I think even 3 could be possible if Arizona gets it together or New England decides they actually can score more than 15 a game (like last game).

I'll name my first born son Antonio Pierce Jr if we lose out and get the third pick.

[big_palooka]

52 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

That is one way to look at it. 

Here's another:

2021:

Wilson and Lance are busts, and one was more expensive. 

Lawrence isn't a bust, but imagine if a team gave up 3+ 1sts to get him (in this case: Travon Walker and/or Devin Lloyd, Anton Harrison, and 2024 1st or some other picks). His production simply doesn't justify a team trading the farm for. 

2020:

Burrow wasn't traded for, the Bengals tanked and were trying to get rid of Dalton. No massive capital was moved, though this would be one time where a team is probably justified in doing so. 

2019:

Murray has 1 winning season, 1 .500 season, 2 losing seasons, and hasn't started a full season since 2020. His record isn't good, his stats are mid, there are serious questions about his motivation and reliability and work ethic to a memeable level. Again, as with Lawrence, imagine if Arizona used a trade on him (~3 1sts seemingly the going rate: Isaiah Simmons, Zavem Collins, the pick to trade for Marquise Brown; and/or possibly Byron Murphy, Trey McBride, etc if 2nd rounders were used). Definitely would not been worth a fortune to move up for. 

2018:

Mayfield wasn't traded for, but yet again, imagine if he was. Probably requires the 4th overall pick (Denzel Ward) and at least Corbett or Chubb from that class. For a QB on his 3rd team in as many seasons, that would've been a huge letdown. 

Darnold would've cost the Jets Quinnen Williams in a trade. And Darnold sucks. 

2017:

Trubisky would've likely cost the Bears the picks ultimately used to draft Roquan Smith, Jaylon Johnson, and Cole Kmet at least. That franchise is a mess anyway. 

 

Of the 8 QBs named, only one of them would have been worth trading up for- and the team that drafted him didn't have to. The rest would have had fans furious by now and probably cost a HC and GM their job at this point and set franchises back further than they were. 

Lance was the only actual trade there, and imagine where the 9ers would be if not for that pick. It's X-File level unbelievable that that trade didn't set San Francisco back a decade and cost Lynch and Shanahan their jobs. 

No matter how you slice it, trading a fortune to move up into the top 2 or 3 simply isn't justifiable. It's a fool's gamble unless it pays off, and we're batting a .125 at this point....

This wasn't your original argument. It was that QBs take top 3 tend to bust. That has largely been because of the team that drafted them. While QBs who've been successful picked lower went to team with a better chance at success. 

Pretty simple. If you're picking top 3, it's because you team sucks and is not just a QB prospect away from turning it around. 

Second, the argument for or against trading up really depends on the QB prospect. If the prospect is worth a trade, then you consider making it. Not top 3, but the Chiefs traded from 27 to 10 to draft Mahomes. It cost them 3 picks. Buffalo traded up for Josh Allen.

 To say because Murray or Lawrence wasn't worth trading up therefore Maye or Williams isn't either makes no sense to me. 

And let's just play the "what if" game and say San Fran traded to 1 overall and took Lawrence. What's that look like right now? Instead, he went to another QB poverty franchise in Jacksonville. 

[ronjon1990]

9 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

To me there's a significant drop off from Maye/Williams to the next group of QBs in this years draft. I think Maye/Williams are both plug and play starters from the rip. I've already displayed the data here numerous times, you basically have like a 50/50 chance of finding an average to franchise QB vs a bust and like a 10% chance of finding a good QB outside of the top 10.

5 of the 7 guys you named are former top 10 picks, lol. You can say that for any position though why draft an edge player high when you can find a Maxx Crosby in the 4th. Or a QB high when you can find Purdy or Brady on day 3?

We hear that literally every year. 

.........

Except nobody is saying draft a day 3 QB. The difference in moving from, say, 11 to 7, 8, 9, 10 is far less than trying to squeeze into the top 2 and mortgaging the farm to do so. 

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

We hear that literally every year. 

.........

Except nobody is saying draft a day 3 QB. The difference in moving from, say, 11 to 7, 8, 9, 10 is far less than trying to squeeze into the top 2 and mortgaging the farm to do so. 

Look at Stroud now look at the rest of the class there is a significant drop off.

We waste our picks every year, would you rather have our last three first round picks right now or CJ Stroud? It's an easy decision for me.