Rich7sena Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Look at Stroud now look at the rest of the class there is a significant drop off. We waste our picks every year, would you rather have our last three first round picks right now or CJ Stroud? It's an easy decision for me. Look Allen and Jackson. I am ambivalent on trading up for Williams or Maye, sticking and picking Daniels, or taking Nix in round 2. Edited December 11, 2023 by Rich7sena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, big_palooka said: This wasn't your original argument. It was that QBs take top 3 tend to bust. That has largely been because of the team that drafted them. While QBs who've been successful picked lower went to team with a better chance at success. Pretty simple. If you're picking top 3, it's because you team sucks and is not just a QB prospect away from turning it around. Second, the argument for or against trading up really depends on the QB prospect. If the prospect is worth a trade, then you consider making it. Not top 3, but the Chiefs traded from 27 to 10 to draft Mahomes. It cost them 3 picks. Buffalo traded up for Josh Allen. To say because Murray or Lawrence wasn't worth trading up therefore Maye or Williams isn't either makes no sense to me. And let's just play the "what if" game and say San Fran traded to 1 overall and took Lawrence. What's that look like right now? Instead, he went to another QB poverty franchise in Jacksonville. Actually, it was: Unlike some teams that may screw themselves into picking after us, we don't have nearly the amount of valuable trade chips or a strong enough base of a team to justify moving large amounts assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_palooka Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Look at Stroud now look at the rest of the class there is a significant drop off. We waste our picks every year, would you rather have our last three first round picks right now or CJ Stroud? It's an easy decision for me. Wasting picks in the past does not mean they will be wasted in the future. That is a weak argument. By your definition, they already lost because they hired the wrong GM again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_palooka Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said: Actually, it was: Unlike some teams that may screw themselves into picking after us, we don't have nearly the amount of valuable trade chips or a strong enough base of a team to justify moving large amounts assets. I overlooked that, thanks. And I agree with that. That said, playing musical chairs with the QBs (letting the draft come to you) sounds good in theory. Until you're the last one standing when the music stops. Then you're throwing away another season. I have to see where they are picking before weighing fully in on the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, big_palooka said: Wasting picks in the past does not mean they will be wasted in the future. That is a weak argument. By your definition, they already lost because they hired the wrong GM again. I think giving up 2-3 first round picks is a small price to pay for an elite franchise QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 15 minutes ago, Rich7sena said: Look Allen and Jackson. I am ambivalent on trading up for Williams or Maye, sticking and picking Daniels, or taking Nix in round 2. Nix is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 (edited) 41 minutes ago, big_palooka said: Second, the argument for or against trading up really depends on the QB prospect. If the prospect is worth a trade, then you consider making it. Not top 3, but the Chiefs traded from 27 to 10 to draft Mahomes. It cost them 3 picks. Buffalo traded up for Josh Allen. To say because Murray or Lawrence wasn't worth trading up therefore Maye or Williams isn't either makes no sense to me. And let's just play the "what if" game and say San Fran traded to 1 overall and took Lawrence. What's that look like right now? Instead, he went to another QB poverty franchise in Jacksonville. Do you understand how gambling works? Legit question, btw. Because that's what the draft is no matter how many draftniks say otherwise. Go with the best odds, and that simply isn't reflected in trading upwards. As for Lawrence, who knows but he's just not nearly as good as advertised. Beyond that, that's way too subjective based on how much someone just likes a guy. Some people outright reject the notion that Carr, with 1 system his career instead of like 6, wouldn't be trash. Yet they'll argue for their flavor of the week that he just needs a "better team". You don't make decisions based on logic that doesn't get universally applied. And, hey, I'm not entirely objective 24/7 either. I've made that same Lawrence argument for Alex Smith countless times. And once in KC, Smith largely justified his draft status. I love Alex Smith. I wouldn't have traded up for him in the draft, and nothing he wound up doing would have justified the cost. I said Burrow was an exception- he actually has something to show for it thus far. Lawrence hasn't yet, and I suspect likely won't for quite some time. Playing the "if X QB went elsewhere" isn't the same as saying "If the same team that drafted them had made a trade for them instead". If Tom Brady played his entire career without Drew Bledsoe getting injured and decided to retire after 4 years. That's tweaking X factors so you can't be wrong. It's not quantifiable and is purely hypothetical. Keeping every element except initial draft order the same and extrapolating what a team who actually took a player would have likely given up is something you can come a heck of a lot closer measuring than changing the team, coaching, system of a player's career. Edited December 11, 2023 by ronjon1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 16 minutes ago, big_palooka said: I overlooked that, thanks. And I agree with that. That said, playing musical chairs with the QBs (letting the draft come to you) sounds good in theory. Until you're the last one standing when the music stops. Then you're throwing away another season. I have to see where they are picking before weighing fully in on the subject. Meh, I don't think we're going to be in a last man standing slot anyway. We'll almost certainly have a Top 10 pick. Probably 6th to 8th. The only way we're likely stuck in a last man standing situation is if you only want Williams or Maye. I can't imagine QB going 1,2,3,4,and 5 (that's, hypothetically, Williams, Maye, McCarthy,Nix, Penix and not counting Daniels) other teams still have other needs and will be jockeying foe positioning before and during draft day. If we were stuck in the late teens or early 20's, I'd be more concerned. But so long as we're in the top 8, we're golden in my book. Williams, Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr, at least OL, at least 1 Edge, and at least 1 CB will inevitably go towards the top of the draft. There's 6 picks right there. Nix, Penix, McCarthy, and Daniels mathematically can't all be gone. Again, different story if you're hellbent on 1 or 2 particular guys, but I say any FO without a contingency plan isn't worth having anyway. Else, you're literally stuck trying to trade fir #1 every single year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Bears have to just keep on winning which will allow them to gain more faith in Fields so they will be more willing to trade that number 1 pick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_palooka Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 1 hour ago, ronjon1990 said: Meh, I don't think we're going to be in a last man standing slot anyway. We'll almost certainly have a Top 10 pick. Probably 6th to 8th. The only way we're likely stuck in a last man standing situation is if you only want Williams or Maye. I can't imagine QB going 1,2,3,4,and 5 (that's, hypothetically, Williams, Maye, McCarthy,Nix, Penix and not counting Daniels) other teams still have other needs and will be jockeying foe positioning before and during draft day. If we were stuck in the late teens or early 20's, I'd be more concerned. But so long as we're in the top 8, we're golden in my book. Williams, Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr, at least OL, at least 1 Edge, and at least 1 CB will inevitably go towards the top of the draft. There's 6 picks right there. Nix, Penix, McCarthy, and Daniels mathematically can't all be gone. Again, different story if you're hellbent on 1 or 2 particular guys, but I say any FO without a contingency plan isn't worth having anyway. Else, you're literally stuck trying to trade fir #1 every single year lol To me, it's either Maye or Williams top 10. McCarthy I think can be on their level, but developmentally he's a year behind. I'd take him top 10, but does he project there?These are the only 3 QBs I think are true franchise guys. Do I trade up for the top 2 or reach on McCarthy relative to projections (which I'm not sure of today). If I can't land them, I don't like my prospects in this class. 2nd wave guys, I like Nix but think his ceiling is lower than the above guys. Penix, Daniels - these are day 2 guys for me and would rather wait a year than waste time with either. So yes, hellbent on a franchise QB in which I think there are 3 available and several chairs to fill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_palooka Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 36 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Strong contender for the #1 overall pick? You going to whip it out and see how it measures up with this reporter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 (edited) 44 minutes ago, big_palooka said: Strong contender for the #1 overall pick? You going to whip it out and see how it measures up with this reporter? The Vegas books have Caleb at -650, I wonder if he knows more than them. Maye is +550 brother, bet your life savings on it. Edited December 12, 2023 by NYRaider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 The perfect photo doesn't exi... @big_palooka @MrOaktown_56 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 8. JJ McCarthy | QB | Michigan 39. T'Vondre Sweat | DL | Texas 74. Josh Newton | CB | TCU 109. Jackson Powers-Johnson | C | Oregon 143. Junior Colson | LB | Michigan 203. Dillon Johnson | RB | Washington 221. Mario Williams | WR | USC 225. Fadil Diggs | Edge | Texas A&M 241. Walter Rouse | OT | Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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