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2024 NFL Draft Discussion


MacReady

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1 hour ago, beekay414 said:

I full-on Trust the Gute™ so wherever it inevitably happens, I'm gonna be there to support it. Sinnott's a stud football player.

He really won me over when he took Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.  I LOVED them.  Top it off with Zach Tom in the same draft!? I'm on board.  But that doesn't mean that I won't have a different opinion from time to time.  

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3 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

He really won me over when he took Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.  I LOVED them.  Top it off with Zach Tom in the same draft!? I'm on board.  But that doesn't mean that I won't have a different opinion from time to time.  

I'll choose to see the pluses and how they fit. The one thing I'll get behind is questioning the positional value compared to where we draft said positions but I'll do my best to not slam the individual player until we see him on the football field within the respective systems. 

Or, the furthest I'll go is something like "now this one I don't quite get." 

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29 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

You are forgetting the most crucial thing.  Mock drafts give fans false justifications for calling picks a reach or great value.  Never mind that the actual pick is what defines the player's draft value, not the other way around.  The "he would have been available a round later" crowd will never accept that basic truth.

Very true.

But....Seahawks made a lot of first round selections that have made me chuckle.  And for those most part, they've busted hard.  

I use the mock sims to gauge which players should be available around where GB picks in the first and second round.  PFF was quite accurate in that regard last year.

And?  I just ran one on that site.  Went 50/50 their board versus public boards.  Put randomness as high as I could.  Ended up getting the Penn State Tackle with our first pick and Byron Murphy with our second pick. 

Now that was pure entertainment.

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10 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Lets not act like these guys are infallible, their interpretation of a players value is often wrong. For every Nick Collins there are multiple AJ Dillon, Josiah Deguara, Josh Myers over Creed Humphrey picks where the general draft consensus got it right. With DVR, YouTube game cutups and A22 to go with the loads of draft content on social media, the common draftnik is as close to the access a GM gets as we've ever been. Obviously the interviews and medicals we'll never get, but just plain tape crunch, it's all out there on 90% of these guys. 

One glance at any team's draft history tells us that GM's are most definitely not infallible.  I am just in the camp of mock drafts not being good for much beyond the broad strokes of where players are likely to be drafted.  If someone posts MHJ is very unlikely to be available at 25, I won't dispute that assertion.  When the name changes to someone like Barton based on recent mock draft results, I will.

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10 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I'll choose to see the pluses and how they fit. The one thing I'll get behind is questioning the positional value compared to where we draft said positions but I'll do my best to not slam the individual player until we see him on the football field within the respective systems. 

Or, the furthest I'll go is something like "now this one I don't quite get." 

One of my favorite things we do here is the re-draft thread like a day later.  We see how we compare what we wanted vs what the team did.  We get a little hindsight because we know where players went, but we don't quite yet see any of them in NFL games.  When I don't feel strongly, I do default to Gute's choice.  I have mostly liked what he has done, my biggest gripes have been:  Jordan Love a year too early, Jayden Reed being small, and I wanted Albert O instead of Deguara.  None of these were serious "FiRe GuTe!" offenses though.  And I don't think we have anyone that is big enough of a know-it-all ******-bag to be like, "I knew Simon Stepaniak was a bad pick!"  

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Interesting, according to the PFF draft prospect profile for Graham Barton, he has only taken game snaps at LT ... says zero snaps at LG, C, RG, & RT in any games for all of 2021, 2022, and 2023.
I get that he has the measurables and presumably the talent to play any spot on the Oline, but that looks to be just 'very educated projection' as he appears to have no actual game experience at any other spot.


meh, maybe I'm just nitpickin cuz I'm bored ....
 

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2 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

One of my favorite things we do here is the re-draft thread like a day later.  We see how we compare what we wanted vs what the team did.  We get a little hindsight because we know where players went, but we don't quite yet see any of them in NFL games.  When I don't feel strongly, I do default to Gute's choice.  I have mostly liked what he has done, my biggest gripes have been:  Jordan Love a year too early, Jayden Reed being small, and I wanted Albert O instead of Deguara.  None of these were serious "FiRe GuTe!" offenses though.  And I don't think we have anyone that is big enough of a know-it-all ******-bag to be like, "I knew Simon Stepaniak was a bad pick!"  

I remember posts on here after we drafted Randall, as guys were doing mental gymnastics to rationalize that pick.  Like they wouldn't call it a horrible pick, or a bad pick.  But they just HAD to justify why the pick was made.  Almost like they were selling themselves on it.  It was humorous.

Sometimes a bad pick is just a bad pick.  Sometimes the board is devastated and those kinds of picks happen.  

We just happen to get more data and info around the top prospects.  No harm in saying that you hope a pick hits, but this one didn't make much sense.

I'm not one to bag on later round picks, except for Clifford.  That dude sucks rocks!  :)  Oh, and Watson still sucks.

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29 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Or, the furthest I'll go is something like "now this one I don't quite get." 

I lied. 

Sean Clifford has no business on an NFL field. That's as far as I'll go in critiquing a draft pick. 

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The true value of any draft pick is how they do in the Fall.  We have no idea what Gute plans to do with them, or their role.  

Green Bay often gets ripped in the post draft grades, but a funny thing often happens during the actual season.  

As always, let it play out regardless of who they pick.

Edited by NFLGURU
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1 hour ago, Mazrimiv said:

You are forgetting the most crucial thing.  Mock drafts give fans false justifications for calling picks a reach or great value.  Never mind that the actual pick is what defines the player's draft value, not the other way around.  The "he would have been available a round later" crowd will never accept that basic truth.

That depends entirely if you choose to think that way. I got mortally tired of hearing we "shoulda taken T.J.Watt" myself. Like I said, it depends on how you use them. My favourite Mock Draft was "the post-draft mock", one I created years ago and was adopted by another poster here, after I put it in another forum on this site.

Essentially, the post draft mock takes the actual draft as the basis. At each draft spot you can choose whoever you want from those not drafted yet. You cannot make new trades but you can refuse a trade the Packers made and use the original picks.

Have fun getting the players you really wanted, stash the mock for a year or two, then see if your efforts were better or worse than Gute's. You have one advantage over Gute and one disadvantage. The disadvantage is that he has people look much deeper into prospects than you can manage. The advantage is that you know where all the prospects are drafted and can wait until just before they are taken to get them yourself. 

Now THAT draft really is just for entertainment purposes, but it is fun.

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1 hour ago, Hugh_Mann said:

Interesting, according to the PFF draft prospect profile for Graham Barton, he has only taken game snaps at LT ... says zero snaps at LG, C, RG, & RT in any games for all of 2021, 2022, and 2023.
I get that he has the measurables and presumably the talent to play any spot on the Oline, but that looks to be just 'very educated projection' as he appears to have no actual game experience at any other spot.


meh, maybe I'm just nitpickin cuz I'm bored ....
 

He played 6 games at center in 2021, but I'm not surprised that PFF got something that simple wrong.

And tackles get moved inside all the time.

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1 hour ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Also a heck of a fun highlight reel to watch.  I always love the Memphis running backs.  

Watson is sneaky fast on his highlight reel. Nobody catches him but he doesn't LOOK like he's running fast. But he is. 

Has some intriguing between the tackles plus vision and moves. 

I'm intrigued.

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