2024 NFL Draft Discussion

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Honestly think they might like Michael Hall better as an option in round 2. He's 9 months younger too (only 20). Similar player whose pass rush win rate was just as impressive as Murphy's. 

Did he ever do the agility tests at his Pro Day?

[ThatJerkDave]

13 hours ago, DWhitehurst said:

Plus at that point the Bills season wasn't going well, though unfortunately they later turned it around just after the trade. Had their season tanked, the trade compensation would've been fair, say around pick #80. But as it stands, IMO, Bills won that trade, Packers got too little. Oh well.

I am fine with the compensation.  Remember, our investment in Rasul was signing him off the Cardinals' practice squad. We got a top 100 pick from that.  We also need to take a 1000 foot view of the team.  Remember that last year was year one of the rebuild.  Finishing the season strong was hitting the season goal.  Making the playoffs was exceeding it.  The big picture was:  evaluate and improve in 23, push for the playoffs in 24, contend in 25.  By the time we were supposed to start contending, Rasul's contract would be up and he would be 32.  Instead we have pick 91, who will be 24ish in 2025.

[packfanfb]

23 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Did he ever do the agility tests at his Pro Day?

Don't think so but he's pretty twitched up for being 295. Don't think there's any concern there. Think he could play inside or outside for us. 

[ThatJerkDave]

I just did a sim, what are your guys' thoughts?

Traded 25 and 169 for 26 and 92.  Bucs took Graham Barton, I took Tyler Guyton.  I like Barton more, but getting another top 100 pick was too good for one draft spot moving down, IMO.

Traded pick 58 for picks 60 and 160.  Again, just a lot of value for two slots, I think.  Bills took Jonathan Brooks.

Traded picks 88 and 91 for pick 64.  I didn't have a target, and just did it at the beginning of the round.  I wanted to see what there was to choose from with such a move.  

26.  Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma;  41.  Christian Haynes OG UConn;  60.  Max Melton CB Rutgers;  64.  Junior Colson LB Michigan;  92.  Johnny Wilson WR Florida State;  126. Jalyx Hunt EDGE Houston Christian;  160.  Tykee Smith S Georgia; 202.  Tip Reiman TE Illinois;  219.  Charles Turner III OC LSU;  245.  Kimani Vidal RB Troy;  255. Nathaniel Watson LB Mississippi State

I didn't like how the running backs and safeties were falling to my spots.  In this scenario, I think we most certainly are going to have to bring in some FA safeties.  I also tried to get from 126 to the early 100s, but nobody was biting with the limited resources I had, and I gave up when it got to about 110.  I am pretty pleased with the first 8 picks.  Not going to lie, I know zero about Turner III or Watson.  Johnny Wilson is a luxury pick, but I envision a better Allen Lazard in him.  I really like the idea of Wilson, Watson, and Wicks on the same side in a WR screen, or an end around to Reed.

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I am fine with the compensation.  Remember, our investment in Rasul was signing him off the Cardinals' practice squad. We got a top 100 pick from that.  We also need to take a 1000 foot view of the team.  Remember that last year was year one of the rebuild.  Finishing the season strong was hitting the season goal.  Making the playoffs was exceeding it.  The big picture was:  evaluate and improve in 23, push for the playoffs in 24, contend in 25.  By the time we were supposed to start contending, Rasul's contract would be up and he would be 32.  Instead we have pick 91, who will be 24ish in 2025.

I also want to add to this, we finished the year pretty hot.  Jordan Love was playing out of his mind.  I think Jordan is good, I am doubtful that he can maintain the 18:1 TD:INT numbers from week 8 until the end of the season.  We have to temper the expectations a little bit, we might not be the juggernaut that is fighting for homefield advantage, this is the season we should be making our playoff push.

[Sandy]

8 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I just did a sim, what are your guys' thoughts?

Traded 25 and 169 for 26 and 92.  Bucs took Graham Barton, I took Tyler Guyton.  I like Barton more, but getting another top 100 pick was too good for one draft spot moving down, IMO.

Traded pick 58 for picks 60 and 160.  Again, just a lot of value for two slots, I think.  Bills took Jonathan Brooks.

Traded picks 88 and 91 for pick 64.  I didn't have a target, and just did it at the beginning of the round.  I wanted to see what there was to choose from with such a move.  

26.  Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma;  41.  Christian Haynes OG UConn;  60.  Max Melton CB Rutgers;  64.  Junior Colson LB Michigan;  92.  Johnny Wilson WR Florida State;  126. Jalyx Hunt EDGE Houston Christian;  160.  Tykee Smith S Georgia; 202.  Tip Reiman TE Illinois;  219.  Charles Turner III OC LSU;  245.  Kimani Vidal RB Troy;  255. Nathaniel Watson LB Mississippi State

I didn't like how the running backs and safeties were falling to my spots.  In this scenario, I think we most certainly are going to have to bring in some FA safeties.  I also tried to get from 126 to the early 100s, but nobody was biting with the limited resources I had, and I gave up when it got to about 110.  I am pretty pleased with the first 8 picks.  Not going to lie, I know zero about Turner III or Watson.  Johnny Wilson is a luxury pick, but I envision a better Allen Lazard in him.  I really like the idea of Wilson, Watson, and Wicks on the same side in a WR screen, or an end around to Reed.

Not bad. I'd have screamed out loud if I traded down one pick and lost my guy like that. Has happened to me a few times lol. 

I like Guyton, I don't love Guyton. Really like a lot of the other picks you took. Haynes competes with Rhyan right away. Melton, Colson, Smith, Reiman and Vidal are all guys I like this year. Good value for all. 

I typically avoid Wilson because of his Lazardiness, but if you want that type on the team I can't fault you. 

Using PFN?

[sgtcheezwiz]

1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

Honestly think they might like Michael Hall better as an option in round 2. He's 9 months younger too (only 20). Similar player whose pass rush win rate was just as impressive as Murphy's. 

Certainly possible but if a talent like Murphy is there at 25 I think he’s got to be near the top of the list. Especially with the buku DT market right now. Same could be said with Barton and the guard market if he’s there.

[ThatJerkDave]

7 minutes ago, Sandy said:

Not bad. I'd have screamed out loud if I traded down one pick and lost my guy like that. Has happened to me a few times lol. 

I like Guyton, I don't love Guyton. Really like a lot of the other picks you took. Haynes competes with Rhyan right away. Melton, Colson, Smith, Reiman and Vidal are all guys I like this year. Good value for all. 

I typically avoid Wilson because of his Lazardiness, but if you want that type on the team I can't fault you. 

Using PFN?

This one was PFN.

I really like the Lazard mold of WR.  If we could get Lazard back on an acceptable paycheck, I would be for it 100%.  I don't know if there is a term for that kind of WR, but I am leaning toward calling him a bully.  There are very few defensive backs that can hold up to them blocking, they are just too big.  But they don't have the square body type of a TE.  I also like the idea of diversifying the WR room.  Different players will have advantages in different situations.  You could view him as a super-Heath.  

I don't love Guyton either.  I had options at 26.  DeJean was there, JPJ was there, Karl Beavis was there, I think Newton and Wiggins were too.  But with the recent Guyton discussion, I decided to try that route this time.  I wasn't devastated when Barton was taken.  I also think that I like Tampa, Melton, or Jarrian Jones for the Packers as much as DeJean, and I was able to get one of them later in the draft.

Vidal was my last hurrah at finding a different RB.  I honestly prefer Blake Watson, but along with 6'3 safeties, and big WRs that run fast, Memphis RBs are one of my tells.

[packfanfb]

28 minutes ago, sgtcheezwiz said:

Certainly possible but if a talent like Murphy is there at 25 I think he’s got to be near the top of the list. Especially with the buku DT market right now. Same could be said with Barton and the guard market if he’s there.

If Murphy gets past the Rams after losing Donald I'll fall out of my chair.

[Brat&Beer]

Did an NFC North 3 round mock draft with no trades

Bears (1) Caleb Williams - QB - USC
Bears (9) Jared Verse - EDGE - Florida St.
Vikings (11) J.J. McCarthy - QB - Michigan
Vikings (23) Laiatu Latu - EDGE = UCLA
Packers (25) Cooper DeJean - CB - Iowa
Lions (29) Graham Barton - IOL - Duke
Packers (41) Jer'zhan Newton - DL - Illinois
Packers (58) Tyler Nubin - S - Minnesota
Lions (61) Kris Jenkins - DL - Michigan
Lions (73) Xavier Legette - WR - South Carolina
Bears (75) Jonathan Brooks - WR - Texas
Packers (88) Patrick Paul - OT - Houston
Packers (91) Jaden Hicks - S - Washington St.

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, Sandy said:

Not bad. I'd have screamed out loud if I traded down one pick and lost my guy like that. Has happened to me a few times lol. 

I like Guyton, I don't love Guyton. Really like a lot of the other picks you took. Haynes competes with Rhyan right away. Melton, Colson, Smith, Reiman and Vidal are all guys I like this year. Good value for all. 

I typically avoid Wilson because of his Lazardiness, but if you want that type on the team I can't fault you. 

Using PFN?

Should never happen in real life though. GM's should know who the other team is taking before making the trade. 

[ThatJerkDave]

11 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Should never happen in real life though. GM's should know who the other team is taking before making the trade. 

I just played it for BPA anyway.  I had 4 or 5 players that I was fine with taking at 25.  Barton ever so slightly above Guyton, but not enough to stop me from picking up another third.  I always go into those sims to learn something.  The first rounder really wasn't all that important.  I wanted to see what I could get from 3 second round picks, the sim just made me an offer I really liked.  While I like the string of: Haynes, Melton, Colson, Wilson, I am then pretty disappointed in what was left at both safety and running back.  Perhaps moving up from 58 to an earlier second is a better move.  Also have to mention that I am trading up to see what is left for me in subsequent picks after trading up, not necessarily for a specific player.  So, say I trade both seconds for pick 32, I am more looking at what my class looks like after missing out on picks 33-88 and how my draft class fills out rather than who I get at 32.

[Arthur Penske]

On 4/4/2024 at 3:05 PM, Packerraymond said:

This is called due diligence and happens every year. Gute is talking trade down right now too.

Ok? Obviously he is. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t discuss the possibility of it occurring in a football forum topic devoted to the 2024 nfl draft, lol

Edited April 6 by Arthur Penske

[Arthur Penske]

On 4/4/2024 at 4:29 PM, PossibleCabbage said:

Wouldn't read too much into this.  At this time of year teams are always talking to other teams about potential trades during the draft, since having figured out the structure of the trade on paper weeks before makes it easy to pull off a trade during the draft and the Seahawks and Packers have traded during the draft a whole bunch of times.  Seattle is also likely looking to move back to pick up more picks because they're without a 2nd (having traded it to the Giants for Leonard Williams.)  So the obvious trade for the Seahawks to make is "to a team with an extra 2nd for that 2nd".

Wasn’t reading into anything. Was a simple question wondering what it would cost if it did happen. 

Edited April 6 by Arthur Penske

[ThatJerkDave]

These sims are fun, and dumb.  I was going to try to trade up in the second, like I suggested.  But I started getting trade offers...  I ended up with a decent haul for this year and made 13 selections.  But I also got Seattle's 1, 2 and 3; Tennessee's 1, 2, and 4, and New Orleans' 2 in 2025.  So, I didn't really learn anything with that one, other than the sims are really dumb and will mortgage an entire draft class to move up 3 spots like 4 times.