2024 NFL Draft Discussion

[Kampfgeist]

19 hours ago, beekay414 said:

I wanna see what McDuffie can do playing for Hafley.

.

Hafley saw it.

According to Pro Football Focus, McDuffie finished as the 381 st -highest-graded linebacker (20% snap minimum) with a Defensive grade of 39.9 (45.9 Run Defense, 72.1 Tackling, 62.3 Pass Rush, 36.4 Coverage).

I think McDuffie is a capable linebacker so won't lose sleep if he's starting but he would function best as a 3rd option / ST backer still.  I also don't think for one second that Hafley looked around his team at BC and didn't wonder what he could accomplish if he could recruit half the talent he saw at Ohio State, or played against at MI/WI/Penn St.    So I don't think he came to GB and cheered seeing McDuffie as a top option on the roster.  In the draft he only has to convince Gutey to draft him a top linebacker from any college he wants, in College he had to wine/dine and sweet talk people just to get them to take a tour and most of the top options probably didn't even take his call.     

So while I'm happy to watch McDuffie show his coach how much he's grown as a player (figuratively, not literally) I'd be more happy to watch a linebacker with Pro Bowl potential like Cooper in Hafley's system (which may not look at all like he ran at BC for all we know).   

[beekay414]

Well, if PFF said so

[PossibleCabbage]

I think one of the reasons that McDuffie played poorly is one of the reasons all the LBs played poorly- specifically Barry was asking for LBs to commit to run fits *after* the safeties did.  Given that that even a player with eyes in the back of their head would have their vision obstructed by their helmet, this is basically impossible.

[Chili]

I've filtered through the prospects testing data to find out who fits our positional thresholds.

I started with cornerbacks. I didn't bother with agility testing numbers because the vast majority did not do them at the combine.

Height: >5'11" but < 6'1" (Kevin King is an outlier and going that big isn't something we normally do)
Weight: >190lbs but < 200lbs (I have adjusted the minimum to 185lbs this time)
Arm Length: > 30.25 (Last I checked we have never drafted a corner with arms shorter than this)
Forty: < 4.50s (where available. If a player has no 40 time then he is included anyway)

Quinyon Mitchell
Terrion Arnold
Kool-Aid McKinstry
Kamari Lassiter
T.J. Tampa
Elijah Jones
Renardo Green
Decamerion Richardson
Max Melton
Marcellas Dial
Nehemiah Pritchett

Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, Cam Hart and Ennis Rakestraw misses out due to weight, Jarrian Jones misses out due to arm length. Khyree Jackson and Andru Phillips with their height.

If I reverted the weight minimum back to 190lbs then the likes of Terrion Arnold, Kamari Lassiter, T.J. Tampa, Elijah Jones, Renardo Green, Decamerion Richardson. Max Melton would've been eliminated. Cutting them out would be pointless as players gain weight all the time.

The reverse is true as well, a player lose weight all the time and so Cooper DeJean would be back in play for us.

If the Packers were extremely strict with their criterias then it means we're limited to a pool of just 4 players with known testing numbers. Those players are highlighted in green.

If the Packers show some flexibility with weight on either side then that would increase the pool to 15 players.

This suggests that the Packers, if they want a corner, are likely going to have to draft somebody outside their numbers and Gute has shown he is willing to draft players who falls slightly outside the perimeters eg Alexander (Height) and Wyatt (Age).

Edited April 7 by Chili

[PossibleCabbage]

The question I have is whether filtering for weight is accurate or whether it's more correct to filter for speed.  Like the reason you don't usually see 6-3 210 CBs is that those guys are usually playing WR instead, with skinnier guys being CBs.  I don't think the Packers would have passed on drafting Patrick Surtain II because he's 208.

[ThatJerkDave]

@Chili I love the number crunches.  Are you using data from both TT and Gute, or just Gute?

I believe the lightest corner that we have drafted, in like forever, was SJC.

[ThatJerkDave]

5 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

The question I have is whether filtering for weight is accurate or whether it's more correct to filter for speed.  Like the reason you don't usually see 6-3 210 CBs is that those guys are usually playing WR instead, with skinnier guys being CBs.  I don't think the Packers would have passed on drafting Patrick Surtain II because he's 208.

Remember that the thresholds are just a predictive tool, especially for message board fans.  It is just a way to focus on the more likely candidates.

[Chili]

1 minute ago, ThatJerkDave said:

@Chili I love the number crunches.  Are you using data from both TT and Gute, or just Gute?

I believe the lightest corner that we have drafted, in like forever, was SJC.

Both I suppose. I have to assume they have extremely similar thresholds regarding corners.

TT consistently was willing to sacrifice speed in order to keep the height/weight ratio.

Gute is a bit all over the place. Generally he mainly prioritised speed, he repeated TT philosophy by sacrificing speed for Jackson. He sacrificed height for Alexander. Otherwise nothing too eyebrow raising.

However he went off the rails with the Jean Charles pick which he sacrificed height, weight AND speed. I strongly believe he didn't make that pick and it was the defensive coordinator doing (Barry's first year), Gute probably said pick a player you like that you think will fit the system you want to implement. Big mistake.

Even if he did pick him, then it shows Gute is willing to be more flexible than TT.

Yeah, 184lbs for Jean Charles. We never dropped below 190lbs in years.

The problem is with this draft class is that there's not many corners over 190lbs. As long as Gute prioritises speed I think he will be willing to drop the weight threshold a little.

[ThatJerkDave]

1 minute ago, Chili said:

 

The problem is with this draft class is that there's not many corners over 190lbs. As long as Gute prioritises speed I think he will be willing to drop the weight threshold a little.

That was my biggest concern for Rakestraw.  I think he is good.  But, he was going to be too light, or if he did get up to 190, he would probably be too slow.  I think you are right, that is the case for a lot of these guys.  

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, Chili said:

 

Cooper DeJean misses out due to weight. 

How? Is 200 the threshold on the high end? 

[Chili]

15 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

How? Is 200 the threshold on the high end? 

the heaviest corner we drafted between TT and Gute is 200lbs. Lee, House, King.

Cooper DeJean is 203. As Gute has shown willingness to be flexible i'm sure he will overlook this.

[Old Guy]

4 minutes ago, Chili said:

the heaviest corner we drafted between TT and Gute is 200lbs. Lee, House, King.

Cooper DeJean is 203. As Gute has shown willingness to be flexible i'm sure he will overlook this.

Are we convinced DeJean is just a CB? I honestly don't know, but some of the draft sites have him listed as a S. 

Where, in your opinion, does he play in the NFL? 

BTW, KIng was way too skinny for his height. 

Edited April 7 by Old Guy

[Chili]

2 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Are we convinced DeJean is just a CB? I honestly don't know, but some of the draft sites have him listed as a S. 

Where, in your opinion, does he play in the NFL? 

BTW, KIng was way too skinny for his height. 

I haven't got around to watching DeJean yet so can't answer your question.

I use the cornerback thresholds to help me determine which players to watch for the Packers. I don't have time to watch everybody lol so I had to filter the list down somehow.

From what I hear about DeJean sounds alot like Micah Fitzpatrick. Can move him around all over.

[Old Guy]

3 minutes ago, Chili said:

I haven't got around to watching DeJean yet so can't answer your question.

I use the cornerback thresholds to help me determine which players to watch for the Packers. I don't have time to watch everybody lol so I had to filter the list down somehow.

From what I hear about DeJean sounds alot like Micah Fitzpatrick. Can move him around all over.

That is the kind of guy I want. 

[Chili]

Kool-Aid is the prototypical Packers thresholds pick. However I think Arnold is better than him despite College teams apparently avoiding throwing to Kool-Aid side of the field.

There's a few things that gives me a gut feeling that he might be a bust.

Firstly in highlight videos you see the plays when the ball is thrown in his direction. In many of those plays were the result of a WR drops or a QB overthrow rather than a good play from Kool himself. There were some "plays" he made where he got lucky otherwise he would've been burnt for a TD. There a number of failed interceptions in the highlights, yet portrayed as a good play by him. I'm just not seeing it with him.

At his pro day I was unimpressed with his physique compared to Arnold. It's a night and day difference. If you're love the game of football and want to be the best then working on your body is of paramount importance. I started to wonder...is he lazy?

I looked at interviews and he doesn't come across as smart. His eyes and facial expressions are a bit vacant. There was one video where Arnold hijacked Kool's interview and the personality differences cannot be more striking. Arnold's confidence and vibrant personality was showing in stark contrast to Kool who just looks quite reserved. You can tell right away Arnold's personality is well suited for the NFL where Kool's is not.