2024 NFL Draft Discussion

[Mazrimiv]

22 minutes ago, spilltray said:

The reason we are talking about 20-25 is because that's what very good WR make the fact that top end WR is literally double top end RB is relative when you are talking about who to pay high end contracts to.

A couple hours back, you said "Not paying RB has pretty obviously been proven the smart move" and then an hour later, you are saying it's ok to pay RB's 10-12M AAV.  Well, 10-12M is the market for top level RB's, so is it ok to pay RB's or not?

Based on your posts, you want to play both sides of this.

[Mazrimiv]

I bet TEN fans feel pretty good about the cash they saved by trading AJ Brown and drafting Burks to replace him.

[spilltray]

1 minute ago, Mazrimiv said:

A couple hours back, you said "Not paying RB has pretty obviously been proven the smart move" and then an hour later, you are saying it's ok to pay RB's 10-12M AAV.  Well, 10-12M is the market for top level RB's, so is it ok to pay RB's or not?

Based on your posts, you want to play both sides of this.

The long term effect of the entire NFL agreeing on not paying RB is that the market value for RB is half of what it is for WR. That makes of the 2, yeah a 12 mil RB might be more valuable than a 25 mil WR.

[vegas492]

37 minutes ago, spilltray said:

We weren't paying them in 2011

Right.  We were paying Driver and Jennings.  (per the article I read, Driver was like the 3rd highest paid Packer and Jennings was 9 or 10.

[vegas492]

34 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

He's absolutely a 1st round talent, who probably won't be ready to play year 1. Which makes him an easy pass for me. 

I don't see any way he lasts until pick 41, but it he did, I'd for sure grab him and @spilltray's wish will have been granted. 

Yup.  I'm noping out of him in the first round pretty fast.  But in the second round?  Easily.  He'd be a steal there.

[ThatJerkDave]

1 minute ago, Old Guy said:

People have become a bit unrealistic in their thought process given how well we played last year with all guys on rookie deals except Jones. 

Our problem, we hope, is all of those guys keep progressing and are all good enough where we can't afford to keep them all. Time will tell but history says they all won't turn into guys who deserve 20 million + a year. 

If they do, trade a few of them a year before they hit free agency. Watson and Doubs, that would mean after next season one of them would have to go if they are both, 'that guy!"

The real issue isn't paying the WRs.  It was investing in future assets at the position.  The Packers did a very good job of paying one or two WRs and developing new contributors from about 2006 (Greg Jennings draft) until about 2014 (Davante Adams draft and Jordy Nelson 3rd contract).  At that point they had third contract Nelson, soon to be second contract Cobb, and second round pick Davante Adams. 

After drafting Davante Adams the Packers drafted 10 WRs:  Jarred Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, Ty Montgomery, Trevor Davis, Deangelo Yancey, Malachi Dupre, J'Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Amari Rodgers.  Montgomery and St. Brown are still bouncing around, but only MVS really amounted to anything.  The continued investment was what stopped.  Only Ty Montgomery and Amari Rodgers were top 100 picks, and as the draft is not a 100% proposition, neither worked out.

The hindsight move is to not pay Jordy Nelson a third contract (and think of the fiasco that would have been), and draft WRs instead of some of the defensive busts that we selected in the first two rounds.

 

I think part of this is people seeing that we did get steals with MVS, Doubs, and Wicks, and Allen Lazard (who I still don't understand why people don't like) was extremely productive for a UDFA, and think finding WRs is easy.  But not acknowledging that there are 15 WRs in camp every year, and 9/11 of our draft picks from 2014-2021 were unsatisfactory.  

 

[ReasonablySober]

5 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

I bet TEN fans feel pretty good about the cash they saved by trading AJ Brown and drafting Burks to replace him.

How do you think the Chiefs feel trading Tyreke Hill for Trent McDuffie, Skyy Moore, Darian Kinnard, Rashee Rice, and a Cowboys fifth round selection? 

[squire12]

44 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

What am I missing?  CMC himself is on a 16M AAV contract, and I'd call him the gold standard right now for what teams want from a RB.  The latest round of FA RB's went for ~13M AAV.  Why are we talking about 20-25M?  So at 12M, an elite RB's is worth paying?  Using this math, where does Jacobs land?  Is he on a good contract?  He is certainly near the top end of the current RB market.

that CMC aav is misleading as Carolina absorbed a decent chunk of that with the trade.  SF has only been hit with a few million total over the 1.5 years they have had him and the cap hits are $14M each for 24 and 25.  Also need to consider SF has a rookie QB contract that affords them the ability to pay for other positions.

[squire12]

11 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

I bet TEN fans feel pretty good about the cash they saved by trading AJ Brown and drafting Burks to replace him.

I bet LV fans feel really good about paying Adams and giving up picks to do so.  

[R T]

1 hour ago, Leader said:

Seeing this guy's name more and more....

 

Don't really get Nagler's comment, Mims is one of the most likely players to be drafted by the Packers at 25.

[ThatJerkDave]

18 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said:

Mims is basically the ideal redshirt. He may force his way onto the field as a rookie, but he doesn't have to play. The Packers are already set with starters across the line. He could take a year, get his body in a better spot, learn the nuances of NFL blocking, and take over in '25 when Myers leaves, Tom kicks inside, and a spot at RT opens up. 

I like the idea of developing a tackle while we have two capable starters on the roster.  I also like the idea of Mims or Guyton being that asset.  But, I am also a bit hesitant to do that with a first round pick.  And these are also tackles that won't be playing guard if they fail at tackle.  

Also, not at all a fan of switching Zeackhe Tom around.  The guy has shown to be a good tackle.  Don't overthink it and make projections.  There were similar guard projections for Bakhtiari, and he turned out fine.

[spilltray]

12 minutes ago, ReasonablySober said:

How do you think the Chiefs feel trading Tyreke Hill for Trent McDuffie, Skyy Moore, Darian Kinnard, Rashee Rice, and a Cowboys fifth round selection? 

This is misleading. Missing on the picks and the value of the trade itself are two different issues.

[ReasonablySober]

2 minutes ago, spilltray said:

This is misleading. Missing on the picks and the value of the trade itself are two different issues.

I think you misunderstand. That's a killer haul for Hill, and KC won a Super Bowl. Chiefs would do the deal over again 10 times out of 10. 

[Refugee]

15 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

The real issue isn't paying the WRs.  It was investing in future assets at the position.  The Packers did a very good job of paying one or two WRs and developing new contributors from about 2006 (Greg Jennings draft) until about 2014 (Davante Adams draft and Jordy Nelson 3rd contract).  At that point they had third contract Nelson, soon to be second contract Cobb, and second round pick Davante Adams. 

After drafting Davante Adams the Packers drafted 10 WRs:  Jarred Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, Ty Montgomery, Trevor Davis, Deangelo Yancey, Malachi Dupre, J'Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Amari Rodgers.  Montgomery and St. Brown are still bouncing around, but only MVS really amounted to anything.  The continued investment was what stopped.  Only Ty Montgomery and Amari Rodgers were top 100 picks, and as the draft is not a 100% proposition, neither worked out.

The hindsight move is to not pay Jordy Nelson a third contract (and think of the fiasco that would have been), and draft WRs instead of some of the defensive busts that we selected in the first two rounds.

 

I think part of this is people seeing that we did get steals with MVS, Doubs, and Wicks, and Allen Lazard (who I still don't understand why people don't like) was extremely productive for a UDFA, and think finding WRs is easy.  But not acknowledging that there are 15 WRs in camp every year, and 9/11 of our draft picks from 2014-2021 were unsatisfactory.  

 

There’s a balance there. You can’t be completely cold blooded and move on from everyone that will need to be paid, but you also can’t keep everyone. If you draft well and have a good plan of succession, hopefully you are paying one or two of the best, getting comped for a few good ones that walk and have a few promising youngsters in the wings. All of this is predicated on drafting well and as you said, that is far from guaranteed. We are in an enviable position with young cheap talent right now. No one is a superstar yet but we have a few that could really breakout. Big year for our pass catchers and the offense in general to see if they and QB1 are truly as great as we hope they can be. 

[sgtcheezwiz]

I’m ready to admit Mims or Guyton are likely lol. We can get one of them and still hit all our other needs later on - and the board is not going to fall the way I had hope with DeJean or Barton being available. Would hope there is a way to trade back a few spots and still get one but we’ll see.