Biggest Rookie Impact

[SmittyBacall]

It's an interesting class this year, without any obvious year 1 starters (Robbins is probably the closest thing). It's also oddly balanced from front to back. You could make a legitimate argument for a few day 3 picks. Who do you think makes the biggest impact in their first year?

2023 DRAFT CLASS

1. Myles Murphy - Should rotate in a ton from the jump.

2. DJ Turner - Could possibly be asked to start if Awuzie isn't yet 100%. First CB off the bench.

3. Jordan Battle - Is it possible for him to beat out Nick Scott in training camp or midseason?

4. Charlie Jones - Immediate PR/KR contributions. Likely WR4.

5. Chase Brown - Locked in as RB2?

6a. Andrei Iosivas - Special teams gunner?

6b. Brad Robbins - Possibly the rookie with the easiest path to starting Week 1?

7. DJ Ivey - Unlikely contributor.

Edited May 11, 2023 by SmittyBacall

[THE DUKE]

I'm going to go out on a little bit of a limb here and say it's going to be Jordan Battle.  I think all 4 of the top S are going to play significant snaps, but they were really high on Battle and even if Scott starts the season as the "starter", I think Battle is playing 30+ snaps by week 1.

[sparky151]

I'll guess Brown. He'll probably be RB2 from the jump and may start if Mixon is suspended. As long as he hangs on to the ball. 

[THE DUKE]

Honestly, the only two that likely won't have some sort of impact (barring injury) is Iosivas and Ivey.

• Murphy is DE3/4 and is going to get 400-600 snaps unless injuries demand more.
• Turner is going to be CB4 or at worst CB5 and still see the field.  Injuries hit the CB room at some where every year.
• Battle is at worst S3 and might end up a starter sooner rather than later, and I think S3 is going to be more involved this year regardless.
• Jones is WR4 or possibly WR5 if they still like Irwin, but he's also the primary backup slot guy.  I'll be shocked if Jones has less than 300 snaps this year.
• Brown is likely RB2 from day 1, and is a better pass protector than Mixon and has more burst than Mixon, he's going to play quite a bit.
• Robbins is most likely our starting punter and possibly holder for McPherson as well.  May very well be for the next 10-12 years.  McPherson, Robbins, and Adomitis might be a special teams trio for a loooooooong time.

Iosivas is likely WR7 and inactive most games unless we have injuries.
Ivey is in a battle to even make the roster, special teams is where he'll need to shine to stick.

[SmittyBacall]

5 hours ago, sparky151 said:

I'll guess Brown. He'll probably be RB2 from the jump and may start if Mixon is suspended. As long as he hangs on to the ball. 

I’ve been mulling it over for a while, and I think you’re right. Give me Brown.

I think we see him start as RB2, and we slowly see his usage ramp up the back half of the year. Excited to see what his speed brings to the offense.

[INbengalfan]

This was a topic on Cincy Jungle recently.  I say Jones as a punt returner and Robbins as the punter.  But if Mixon gets suspended for any amount of games, it instantly becomes Brown.  The also apparent lack of TE depth also might mean Jones gets more looks in the "other side slot" if we start going 4 wide again with any kind of regularity.

Edited May 12, 2023 by INbengalfan

[SmittyBacall]

30 minutes ago, INbengalfan said:

The also apparent lack of TE depth also might mean Jones gets more looks in the "other side slot" if we start going 4 wide again with any kind of regularity.

Do we think Jones is going to supplant Irwin as WR4 out of TC? I could see a world where Irwin would be the first slot option, but Jones would see the boundary snaps (if one of the big three goes down).

[Beck Bristow]

10 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Do we think Jones is going to supplant Irwin as WR4 out of TC? I could see a world where Irwin would be the first slot option, but Jones would see the boundary snaps (if one of the big three goes down).

He's got a good chance. He's an older more finished product. I don't think they will be worried about bringing him along slowly.

I went with Murphy, but mostly because I think his volume of snaps will make it so Hendrickson is able to stay fresher and make a bigger impact.

[SmittyBacall]

52 minutes ago, Beck Bristow said:

He's got a good chance. He's an older more finished product. I don't think they will be worried about bringing him along slowly.

I agree with that. His time is now, and if the plan is for him to replace Boyd in a year, the more snaps the better.

52 minutes ago, Beck Bristow said:

I went with Murphy, but mostly because I think his volume of snaps will make it so Hendrickson is able to stay fresher and make a bigger impact.

Good pick. Over/under 3.5 sacks for Murphy this year?

[THE DUKE]

6 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Good pick. Over/under 3.5 sacks for Murphy this year?

Give me the over, I think he gets 5

[theJ]

good discussion and i won't disagree with any points.

but my vote is Robbins.  Given the horrible negative production provided by Crisman last season, he's going to be a gamechanger for field position on the punting unit.  It's not a sexy pick, but statistically speaking, he's going to help the offense and defense more than any of the other players drafted.

(when i say statistically speaking, i'm talking about expected points based on starting field position - should really help the defense, and will indirectly help the offense as well by flipping the field)

[theJ]

18 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

• Jones is WR4 or possibly WR5 if they still like Irwin, but he's also the primary backup slot guy.  I'll be shocked if Jones has less than 300 snaps this year.
•  

not to mention his bigger impact - punt returns

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Do we think Jones is going to supplant Irwin as WR4 out of TC? I could see a world where Irwin would be the first slot option, but Jones would see the boundary snaps (if one of the big three goes down).

yes, i think he's WR4 day 1.  Irwin may even be cut honestly.  i like him, but it's a brutal business and they just drafted a guy that does everything he does, but supposedly better.

[SmittyBacall]

21 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

I'm going to go out on a little bit of a limb here and say it's going to be Jordan Battle.  I think all 4 of the top S are going to play significant snaps, but they were really high on Battle and even if Scott starts the season as the "starter", I think Battle is playing 30+ snaps by week 1.

Hasn't Anarumo stated explicitly that he's against a safety rotation, and that continuity is key on the back end?

[SmittyBacall]

7 minutes ago, theJ said:

good discussion and i won't disagree with any points.

but my vote is Robbins.  Given the horrible negative production provided by Crisman last season, he's going to be a gamechanger for field position on the punting unit.  It's not a sexy pick, but statistically speaking, he's going to help the offense and defense more than any of the other players drafted.

(when i say statistically speaking, i'm talking about expected points based on starting field position - should really help the defense, and will indirectly help the offense as well by flipping the field)

I was hoping someone picked Robbins.

[THE DUKE]

3 minutes ago, theJ said:

not to mention his bigger impact - punt returns

yes, i think he's WR4 day 1.  Irwin may even be cut honestly.  i like him, but it's a brutal business and they just drafted a guy that does everything he does, but supposedly better.

I think they keep Irwin over Taylor and Morgan.  Only way I see Irwin cut is if they only keep 6 WR and they keep one of those two for special teams.  I think they keep 7 with Iosivas as WR7 and essentially a stash and develop who will be inactive game days that they won't expose to other teams by having him on the practice squad.  If Iosivas develops, he's a home run swing with that athleticism and length, I think he gets at least one year to see how he comes along.