Which head coaches are on the hot seat in 2023?

[scar988]

8 hours ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Blazing butts:
Arthur Smith (Falcons) - pieces for an explosive offense are there, now it's time to make it happen.

Uh, no. 
the last two years for the Falcons were like the first season of a rebuild. He has at least two more seasons as head coach. They had tons of dead cap the last two years and finally were able to build him both an offense and a defense player wise. They still have a bit to do, but he’s in a position now where results matter, but he has more than 1 season to get them. If they’re not a playoff team this year, they need to be one next for him to keep his job. 

[Acgott]

2 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

🤔

Imagine it’s about Campbell going into year 3, while the others are just going into year 2.

[DoleINGout]

belichick’s is getting warmer.

i think sean mcdermott might start getting lukewarm if the bills regress again.

john harbaugh is probably safe too but his could be warming up a bit without any improvement in record.

kevin stefanski’s job is on the line with the browns.

i think the titans like vrabel so id be surprised to see him let go even if they finish last in the afc south. that said, its a warm seat and that result would be a very hot seat nearing a fire.

brandon staley is in a make or break for the charger. it’s obvious.

josh mcdaniels is going to get fired if the raiders have a worse record or the players splinter from the coach. his seat is warm.

thats the afc.

 

nfc i think matt eberflus is safe for the bears but his seat will be hot if they suck or fields sucks.

matt lefleur is being looked at closely if the packers mightily regress and the offense shows no signs of sustainability. his seat is lukewarm at best right now though.

ron rivera and mike mccarthy are on warm seats. with a subpar season both could be fired by seasons end.

todd bowles and arthur smith are on the hot seat and definitely gone if those teams remain under .500.

kevin oconnell and sean mcvay will probably be fine even with poor seasons but both would definitely be on the hot seat at that point. mcvay may retire though.

lastly dennis allen is probably safe with the saints unless they tank. i dont think the seat there is very hot either.

 

[TheKillerNacho]

5 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

🤔

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply with this quote... the first four are responsible for getting their teams to the playoffs in their first season (and would thus likely survive even relatively disappointing 2023 campaigns), while Campbell is 12-21-1 after two seasons. Given the state of the Packers and Bears, I think its fair to question whether the Lions would consider moving on from him if they fail to snag a playoff berth this year.

That said, I do like Lions' chances this season given their rapid improvement... but if they don't meet expectations he could easily be canned.

[TheKillerNacho]

11 hours ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Blazing butts:
Arthur Smith (Falcons) - pieces for an explosive offense are there, now it's time to make it happen.
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) - job security isn't much in the NFL; it's Year 4 of Stefanski and the Browns need Deshaun Watson to start producing in line with his pay. If not, we know who'll get fired and it won't be Deshaun.
Brandon Staley (Chargers) - he has Justin Herbert, a talented roster, and an underperforming defense. No more historic playoff collapses.
Todd Bowles (Buccaneers) - Bucs will probably suck; if they end up drafting Caleb Williams, I strongly doubt Bowles will be the coach to oversee the start of his NFL career.
Ron Rivera (Commanders) - Riverboat is auditioning in front of new ownership, after all.

Needs results to cool down his rump:
Matt Eberflus (Bears) - Fields is expected to take a leap this year; if he doesn't, defensive-minded Flus just might take the hit in favor of an offensive guru.
Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) - McCarthy has taken the reins of the offense; now he'll be expected to consistently win in the playoffs (needs to stop running into Shanahan).
Robert Saleh (Jets) - he needed a QB, he got one. Now it's time for the Jets to take off.
Josh McDaniels (Raiders) - we've already seen the same old falling outs with players we've come to expect from JMcD. Who knows if Garoppolo was a wise choice to take over from Carr?
Dennis Allen (Saints) - so, what does Allen do well, exactly? How stable is his position? The division looks weak - Saints need to take advantage.

Getting a little warm down there:
Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals) - sure, he's a first-year HC. Sure, the Cards are expected to be one of the worst teams in football. But when that happens, do you see Bidwell being happy? I don't. I think Gannon's seat will get hotter all year and the majority of Cardinals fans will be questioning his ability to lead the team in future seasons.
Sean McDermott (Bills) - one of the better coaches in the league, no doubt. Without a Super Bowl berth this season, though, chatter regarding a replacement might just get a little louder.
Sean Payton (Broncos) - Payton is expected to bring professionalism, structure, discipline, and competence to an organization that was lacking in all under Hackett. He's also firmly expected to turn Russell Wilson around, however. Let's see if he does.
Dan Campbell (Lions) - Campbell is in Detroit's good graces for now but I think we can all see a situation where the Lions don't deliver on their hype.  Campbell would surely get the blame for that.
Matt Lafleur (Packers) - GB is said to believe in Love; if he doesn't deliver or at least look promising, Lafleur could pay the price for that lack of vision.
Bill Belichick (Patriots) - the standard in New England is excellence - they've fallen short of those standards for years now. Nobody is going to tell me BB is bulletproof.
Mike Vrabel (Titans) - I get the sense that the Titans like Vrabel, but they can't like how last year went. Improvement should be hoped for. 

Stone cold cheeks:
Andy Reid (Chiefs) - Chiefs Kingdom reigns, as does Big Red.
Kyle Shanahan (49ers) - Lance can bust and it wouldn't even matter, provided Purdy continues to thrive in Shanny's system. Would you even doubt Shanahan's ability to get something out of Darnold? 49ers are perennial powers.
John Harbaugh (Ravens) - the long-time Baltimore boss might attract a little heat with a subpar year, but that aside I think he's safe, no?
Mike Tomlin (Steelers) - Pittsburgh is a head coach's dream gig; Tomlin always has the Steelers performing well, and they're not expected to do anything big this year. I don't see why they'd think of firing him now, of all times.
Pete Carroll (Seahawks) - unless Geno falls off a cliff and the team falls apart, nobody is looking to axe Carroll.
Sean McVay (Rams) - I expect retirement questions come February as per usual with McVay, but LA wouldn't dream of firing him.
Frank Reich (Panthers) - Reich will be given a reasonable timeframe to develop Young and this Carolina team.
Shane Steichen (Colts)  - ditto the above.
Demeco Ryans (Texans) - ditto the above; Houston doesn't have the best recent track record in terms of loyalty to their head coaches but Demeco seems to be a tremendous fit with the organization and their project at this point.
Zac Taylor (Bengals) - the "Taylor sucks!" takes seemed to quiet down as soon as Burrow started playing like a top-3 QB; funny how that works, huh?
Doug Pederson (Jaguars) - Pederson has done a great job in JAX already; it's hard to believe they'd turn on him so soon.
Kevin O'Connell (Vikings) - ditto the above.
Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) - ditto the above.
Brian Daboll (Giants) - ditto the above - yes, there's the chance to go from Bono to Bozo as Mara pointed out - but it's hard to see that happening so quickly. 
Nick Sirianni (Eagles) - fresh off a Super Bowl run with a terrific roster and QB, this year ought to be smooth sailing for Sirianni.
 

Overall a good list. I slightly disagree about the placement of a few of them but nothing egregious (I'd probably bump up Dennis Allen).

[TheKillerNacho]

3 hours ago, scar988 said:

Uh, no. 
the last two years for the Falcons were like the first season of a rebuild. He has at least two more seasons as head coach. They had tons of dead cap the last two years and finally were able to build him both an offense and a defense player wise. They still have a bit to do, but he’s in a position now where results matter, but he has more than 1 season to get them. If they’re not a playoff team this year, they need to be one next for him to keep his job. 

Eh idk. I've gotten serious vibes from their moves all offseason that the current Falcons regime is in "playoffs or bust" territory this year. Just a general feeling, though. They might survive if they at least show promise with a 9-8 type finish, but I think they're toast if they post another losing year. This is the NFL, after all - suboptimal roster or not, you need to display your value as a coach to keep your job and Arthur Smith hasn't really done that to this point (from what I've seen of their games, his offense simply isn't making the best use of the pieces they actually do have there).

[Louis Friend]

19 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply with this quote... the first four are responsible for getting their teams to the playoffs in their first season (and would thus likely survive even relatively disappointing 2023 campaigns), while Campbell is 12-21-1 after two seasons. Given the state of the Packers and Bears, I think its fair to question whether the Lions would consider moving on from him if they fail to snag a playoff berth this year.

That said, I do like Lions' chances this season given their rapid improvement... but if they don't meet expectations he could easily be canned.

Campbell also took over a team devoid of talent and in cap hell ($67 million in dead cap). He didn't take over a roster like the Vikings or Miami, or have the capspace that Pederson got in Jacksonville last season. Despite that, he's turned the team around, missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers on the very last day of the season (with as many wins as Giants, Dolphins and Jags) and are now the favorites to win the division for the first time in 30 years. Although, considering the thread last year on this forum calling for his job, this list and certain responses do not surprise me. I'm not saying he's the best coach in the league, but he's done well so far and there is nothing to suggest his job is in any more danger than the coaches I singled out. 

[TheKillerNacho]

12 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

nothing to suggest his job is in any more danger than the coaches I singled out. 

I disagree.

I think all of the four you singled out survive the season even with disappointing results (although, granted, not potentially an extremely horrific one like a sub-3 win season or some major controversy). Conversely, I think Campbell could easily be canned if the Lions suffer any sort of losing season in 2023 - barring a slew of critical injuries, there really would be no excuses for him if they were to underperform.

[BetterCallSaul]

2 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

belichick’s is getting warmer.

No. No it isn’t. 

[notthatbluestuff]

2 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Eh idk. I've gotten serious vibes from their moves all offseason that the current Falcons regime is in "playoffs or bust" territory this year. Just a general feeling, though. They might survive if they at least show promise with a 9-8 type finish, but I think they're toast if they post another losing year. This is the NFL, after all - suboptimal roster or not, you need to display your value as a coach to keep your job and Arthur Smith hasn't really done that to this point (from what I've seen of their games, his offense simply isn't making the best use of the pieces they actually do have there).

 

1 hour ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I disagree.

I think all of the four you singled out survive the season even with disappointing results (although, granted, not potentially an extremely horrific one like a sub-3 win season or some major controversy). Conversely, I think Campbell could easily be canned if the Lions suffer any sort of losing season in 2023 - barring a slew of critical injuries, there really would be no excuses for him if they were to underperform.

Indeed; the views of neutral fans, oddly, tend to be more trustworthy in these situations. Homers are usually influenced by the endless coachspeak and platitudes from management they're exposed to on a daily basis simply by following the team - they're too close to teams to see clearly. 

[notthatbluestuff]

1 hour ago, Louis Friend said:

Campbell also took over a team devoid of talent and in cap hell ($67 million in dead cap). He didn't take over a roster like the Vikings or Miami, or have the capspace that Pederson got in Jacksonville last season. Despite that, he's turned the team around, missed the playoffs due to tiebreakers on the very last day of the season (with as many wins as Giants, Dolphins and Jags) and are now the favorites to win the division for the first time in 30 years. Although, considering the thread last year on this forum calling for his job, this list and certain responses do not surprise me. I'm not saying he's the best coach in the league, but he's done well so far and there is nothing to suggest his job is in any more danger than the coaches I singled out. 

Very different situations with Campbell compared to those four. He had a horrible first year and although the Lions were 8-2 in the final 10 games in 2022, they also started the season 1-6. He didn't get anywhere near the immediate turnarounds those four coaches produced. "Devoid of talent," "cap hell," these factors are almost irrelevant. Most coaches could point to extenuating circumstances to explain their failures - it rarely matters in the cutthroat business of the NFL.

Anyway, like you said Campbell has "done well so far" - and his placement on a "slightly warm" tier hardly disputes this, does it? Still, the Lions are now flat-out expected to perform where such expectations weren't there before. That's why there's more pressure on Campbell than Pederson, Daboll etc. That should be pretty clear.

[notthatbluestuff]

Falcons fans after their third-year head coach is fired after another losing season in a crap division:

 

I mean, really guys - Smith is now in his third season. He's not new! Placement on the hottest of hot seat tiers may be arguable, but he's absolutely second-tier at the very least. How many coaches start their tenures with two losing seasons (last in the division in Year 2) and are considered completely safe going into Year 3? He needs to start winning, like now.

[Mr.UFO]

Ron Rivera was the first one I thought of. But he might get more time, considering that Sam Howell might need a little time to develop.

[scar988]

8 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Eh idk. I've gotten serious vibes from their moves all offseason that the current Falcons regime is in "playoffs or bust" territory this year. Just a general feeling, though. They might survive if they at least show promise with a 9-8 type finish, but I think they're toast if they post another losing year. This is the NFL, after all - suboptimal roster or not, you need to display your value as a coach to keep your job and Arthur Smith hasn't really done that to this point (from what I've seen of their games, his offense simply isn't making the best use of the pieces they actually do have there).

Not at all. Dude, I literally cover the team. Smith has 2 years right now. Last 2 years were viewed as a combined reset year. Three years to results. I think this will be moot in the end. 

 

His offense makes the most of what they have. He absolutely has done the best he could with what they had. Having $100M in dead cap and IR cap last year didn’t help at all. 

[Trentwannabe]

21 hours ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Sean McDermott (Bills) - one of the better coaches in the league, no doubt. Without a Super Bowl berth this season, though, chatter regarding a replacement might just get a little louder.

With Beane and McDermott being attached at the hip throughout the majority of their careers, it's hard to see McDermott getting canned by Beane. Especially because Beane's drafting has been more shotty then the coaching IMO. If only one to go I'd assume its Beane, but I don't think either do anytime soon.

The playoff losses and lack of a SB run is a fair argument but I think people (not you just generally speaking) quickly forget they've gone 10-13-11-13  wins since Allen's rookie year. I think after the season if it does not result in a SB berth, depending on the circumstances, there will be pressure to replace Dorsey and/or hand over the reign of the defense to someone new.