Players importance

[JibjeResearch]

1. Jaylon Johnson.  A CB1 is more important than a WR2, TE1, and WR3.  I think JJ is a solid CB1, but not special.

2. Cody Whitehair. A OC1 is more important than a WR2, WR3.

3. Darnell Mooney. A WR2 is more important than a TE1.

4. TE1 = WR3

My guess would be to sign CB1 and WR2.

Of these players: Kmet, Whitehair, Claypool, one or two will leave next year.  Whitehair is more important than Mooney, but Mooney stays because he's younger and good.  Whitehair stays if he plays at/close to a pro bowl level, might be asked to take a pay cut.

If Kmet, Whitehair, Claypool play well, the Bears have the money to keep all of them because they have the draft picks to upgrade other areas.

The only way Mooney leaves is if he catches less than 40.  65 Catches is a solid WR2.

Right now, I have the default receiving targets order as.. Moore WR1 (1), Mooney WR2 (2), Kmet (3), Claypool (4), RB (5).  If this is how the Bears rank players, then I don't see how Kmet will get $12 Million per year, unless the Bears move on from Whitehair.

Just a thought guys....

[beardown3231]

One of these guys is not like the other.

When you're lumping all of these guys together in regards to extensions & money, I don't think Whitehair belongs in the conversation. Poles isn't letting Johnson, Kmet, Mooney *or* Claypool walk just to keep Whitehair. He may be OC1 here, but he isn't a top flight C comparatively and he just turned 31. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by beardown3231

[JibjeResearch]

5 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

One of these guys is not like the other.

When you're lumping all of these guys together in regards to extensions & money, I don't think Whitehair belongs in the conversation. Poles isn't letting Johnson, Kmet, Mooney *or* Claypool walk just to keep Whitehair. He may be OC1 here, but he isn't a top flight C comparatively and he just turned 31. 

My bad bro, I was just talking for next year about Whitehair.  He could be cut next year and use the money for another player.

For the rest of the guys, it depends on how they play and how much they want.

However, it seems like WR2 is Mooney, and then TE1, then WR3.  So Claypool, even if he plays well as a WR3, he could still be gone because of the money; thus, we wasted 32nd overall for 1 year of service.

I would guess, $17M for a WR1, $13M for a WR2.... and then.... $10M for a TE1?....  So, WR3 is a rookie deal.  If a WR3 costs a lot of money, the OC1 looks like a rookie/cheap vet and still keep a CB1.

The only way Johnson leave as a solid CB1 is because he gets more money... which is very possible because a CB1 is harder to replace than a WR2, TE1, WR3, or OC1.

 

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, JibjeResearch said:

The only way Johnson leave as a solid CB1 is because he gets more money... which is very possible because a CB1 is harder to replace than a WR2, TE1, WR3, or OC1.

 

This is where I differ from most of you. I don’t think JJ has shown himself to be a solid CB1 as far as the league is concerned. I think he’s been our CB1, and by a lot, but those aren’t the same things. My reasoning for this is pretty straightforward:

-Essentially no ball production (1 INT in 39 games)

-Didn’t shadow WR1s until 2022 (still doesn’t when they go inside), and when he has he hasn’t slowed them down. Here’s what WR1s did in games against us last year in which Johnson played:

CeeDee Lamb 5-77-1 (7 targets)

Tyreek Hill 7-143-1 (8 targets)

Jaylen Waddle (same game as Hill) 5-85-1 (7 targets)

Amon-Ra St. Brown 10-119-0 (11 targets)

Garrett Wilson 5-95-2 (8 targets)

AJ Brown 9-181-0 (16 targets)

Devonta Smith (same game as Brown) 5-126-0 (8 targets)

Bruh.

Now admittedly not all of that is against Johnson. But a lot of it was against Johnson. And, if it’s not against him then why isn’t he shadowing the best WR on the opposing team when the other alternatives are underwhelming? That’s what most CB1s do. Also, if he’s a legit CB1 at some point he’s gotta actually shut someone down. When exactly did that happen in 2022? Every single WR1 we went against last year when JJ played (he missed both MIN games, the BUF game and the other DET game) had a HUGE game. That this isn’t more concerning to some of you is surprising to me. Yes, there are obviously other factors in that, but great players (which I consider true CB1s to be) overcome at least some of that. None of that above even factors in yet that JJ hasn’t yet played a full season without missing multiple games to injury, which also plays into any decision to sign a guy to a longer term deal.

I don’t want to be misunderstood here - I like Jaylon Johnson quite a bit. I think he’s a pretty respectable NFL starter and would like to see him in a Bears uniform for the next several years. I just don’t think he’s shown himself to be a CB1 to this point, and as such shouldn’t be paid as one. Looking at the 2023 FA CBs who got paid at the top of this year’s market I can’t make a compelling argument that JJ is better than any of them:

Jamel Dean 4/52 $13M AAV

James Bradberry 3/38 $12.67M AAV

Cam Sutton 3/33 $11M AAV

Jonathan Jones 2/19 $9.5M AAV

Byron Murphy 2/17.5 $8.75 AAV

I would say the top 3 are clearly ahead of JJ for me, and would contend that Murphy is a better comp for JJ in terms of on the field production and age. To that end, Murphy has better ball production, has shown a better overall ability to stay healthy, and has the versatility to kick inside, so I wouldn’t be willing to pay JJ much more if even more than that which Murphy just got.

I know that won’t be something with which most agree here - I’m just trying to take off my Bears goggles here and not overvaluing JJ simply because he’s our guy. Good news is, we don’t have to overpay him right now to keep him beyond 2023. Spotrac shows us right now with over $80M in 2024 cap space, and we most likely won’t be adding any big QB or OT money out to that next year unless we decide we want to on a Fields extension (I am assuming there if Braxton is a complete miss that we draft his replacement in R1). Contractually, worst case is JJ balls out in 2023 and proves me completely wrong, and we franchise tag him next year while trying to work out a long deal (the tag was $18.14M for CBs in 2023) and we still have over $60M in cap space heading into the offseason before any other adjustments. 

[Sugashane]

I'm not going to assume based on their position as much as their impact.

 

Johnson I think is a good cover corner but he is (seemingly) fragile and doesn't force turnovers. That makes him far harder to pay as a CB1, though I am far from trying to kick him out at the moment. I'm not overly concerned about the WR1 numbers last year because the Bears could have had 2 All Pro CBs in the backfield and would have been gouged. No passrush, can't stop the run, and your LB corps was down to Sandborn? Passes are getting completed with ease for most of the game.

WR2 is still a starter, so either Mooney or Claypool need to show they are worth that pay raise or I'm looking to replace them both. Mooney has shown he can be the WR2, but had a significant injury so I'm not sure how well he will hold up this year. Hopeful and it sounds like he is rocking it but I'm just being cautious. Claypool has physical tools that should allow him to be a top WR2 in the league but hasn't been consistent. I'm not breaking the bank for either ATM. A WR3 plays a lot of snaps and I want to surround Fields with as much talent as possible before
 

I'm pro-TE, so I need to know what Kmet are the Bears looking at long term. 2022 Kmet I will pay and pay handsomely. He was a plus blocker and the one person in the receiving game that wasn't a disappointment. Reddick and Garrett ate him up but you're asking a TE to block either of them on an island? That's just an issue by the coach and Fields (who should hot route or make an adjustment). Prime Gronk or Marcedes Lewis are about the only TEs I look at and think that may be ok for a few plays per game, and even then I'm not excited about the match up. So 2022 Kmet gets paid top TE money ($12-14mil per) but Kmet from 2020-2021 is looking at less than half that.

Whitehair's career in Chicago looks like it is on morphine drip, he's the 2nd highest paid center this year and he is the Andy Dalton measuring stick for IOL at this point. If your IOL is better than Whitehair you're at least fine, if he isn't you need to look for an improvement. He is Garza essentially. I'd love to have him as a depth player due to versatility and his peak play looks good, but he is just nowhere near worth his contract or any real commitment.

 

Honestly for 2024 here are the FAs I am looking at before Whitehair that aren't listed above - Jones, Santos, Billings, Tonyan, Green, Foreman, Dylan Cole,  Gipson.

All of them can either play a rotational role on a good team or have the potential to fill a role immediately. Of course I'd pay Whitehair more as the swing IOL than Santos but still, I think it is harder to find a starting kicker than a rotational IOL. And if Jones or Gipson suck this year they can drop off the list like anyone else but right now Whitehair isn't even in my top 10 priority FAs just on the team ATM.

[JibjeResearch]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

This is where I differ from most of you. I don’t think JJ has shown himself to be a solid CB1 as far as the league is concerned. I think he’s been our CB1, and by a lot, but those aren’t the same things. My reasoning for this is pretty straightforward:

-Essentially no ball production (1 INT in 39 games)

-Didn’t shadow WR1s until 2022 (still doesn’t when they go inside), and when he has he hasn’t slowed them down. Here’s what WR1s did in games against us last year in which Johnson played:

CeeDee Lamb 5-77-1 (7 targets)

Tyreek Hill 7-143-1 (8 targets)

Jaylen Waddle (same game as Hill) 5-85-1 (7 targets)

Amon-Ra St. Brown 10-119-0 (11 targets)

Garrett Wilson 5-95-2 (8 targets)

AJ Brown 9-181-0 (16 targets)

Devonta Smith (same game as Brown) 5-126-0 (8 targets)

Bruh.

Now admittedly not all of that is against Johnson. But a lot of it was against Johnson. And, if it’s not against him then why isn’t he shadowing the best WR on the opposing team when the other alternatives are underwhelming? That’s what most CB1s do. Also, if he’s a legit CB1 at some point he’s gotta actually shut someone down. When exactly did that happen in 2022? Every single WR1 we went against last year when JJ played (he missed both MIN games, the BUF game and the other DET game) had a HUGE game. That this isn’t more concerning to some of you is surprising to me. Yes, there are obviously other factors in that, but great players (which I consider true CB1s to be) overcome at least some of that. None of that above even factors in yet that JJ hasn’t yet played a full season without missing multiple games to injury, which also plays into any decision to sign a guy to a longer term deal.

I don’t want to be misunderstood here - I like Jaylon Johnson quite a bit. I think he’s a pretty respectable NFL starter and would like to see him in a Bears uniform for the next several years. I just don’t think he’s shown himself to be a CB1 to this point, and as such shouldn’t be paid as one. Looking at the 2023 FA CBs who got paid at the top of this year’s market I can’t make a compelling argument that JJ is better than any of them:

Jamel Dean 4/52 $13M AAV

James Bradberry 3/38 $12.67M AAV

Cam Sutton 3/33 $11M AAV

Jonathan Jones 2/19 $9.5M AAV

Byron Murphy 2/17.5 $8.75 AAV

I would say the top 3 are clearly ahead of JJ for me, and would contend that Murphy is a better comp for JJ in terms of on the field production and age. To that end, Murphy has better ball production, has shown a better overall ability to stay healthy, and has the versatility to kick inside, so I wouldn’t be willing to pay JJ much more if even more than that which Murphy just got.

I know that won’t be something with which most agree here - I’m just trying to take off my Bears goggles here and not overvaluing JJ simply because he’s our guy. Good news is, we don’t have to overpay him right now to keep him beyond 2023. Spotrac shows us right now with over $80M in 2024 cap space, and we most likely won’t be adding any big QB or OT money out to that next year unless we decide we want to on a Fields extension (I am assuming there if Braxton is a complete miss that we draft his replacement in R1). Contractually, worst case is JJ balls out in 2023 and proves me completely wrong, and we franchise tag him next year while trying to work out a long deal (the tag was $18.14M for CBs in 2023) and we still have over $60M in cap space heading into the offseason before any other adjustments. 

Yes, those numbers are awful for a CB1.  However, with the pass rush we had, I think he did good.  Johnson's issue is his health.  The turn over is not that important for a CB1.  A CB1 must provide 40% to 50% pass completion.  I think JJ can do that if we keep him on one side.  This year he gets to be on one side with an average pass rush.  Let see how that goes.  

I think JJ is a CB1, but not an elite CB1. 

[JibjeResearch]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

I'm not going to assume based on their position as much as their impact.

 

Johnson I think is a good cover corner but he is (seemingly) fragile and doesn't force turnovers. That makes him far harder to pay as a CB1, though I am far from trying to kick him out at the moment. I'm not overly concerned about the WR1 numbers last year because the Bears could have had 2 All Pro CBs in the backfield and would have been gouged. No passrush, can't stop the run, and your LB corps was down to Sandborn? Passes are getting completed with ease for most of the game.

WR2 is still a starter, so either Mooney or Claypool need to show they are worth that pay raise or I'm looking to replace them both. Mooney has shown he can be the WR2, but had a significant injury so I'm not sure how well he will hold up this year. Hopeful and it sounds like he is rocking it but I'm just being cautious. Claypool has physical tools that should allow him to be a top WR2 in the league but hasn't been consistent. I'm not breaking the bank for either ATM. A WR3 plays a lot of snaps and I want to surround Fields with as much talent as possible before
 

I'm pro-TE, so I need to know what Kmet are the Bears looking at long term. 2022 Kmet I will pay and pay handsomely. He was a plus blocker and the one person in the receiving game that wasn't a disappointment. Reddick and Garrett ate him up but you're asking a TE to block either of them on an island? That's just an issue by the coach and Fields (who should hot route or make an adjustment). Prime Gronk or Marcedes Lewis are about the only TEs I look at and think that may be ok for a few plays per game, and even then I'm not excited about the match up. So 2022 Kmet gets paid top TE money ($12-14mil per) but Kmet from 2020-2021 is looking at less than half that.

Whitehair's career in Chicago looks like it is on morphine drip, he's the 2nd highest paid center this year and he is the Andy Dalton measuring stick for IOL at this point. If your IOL is better than Whitehair you're at least fine, if he isn't you need to look for an improvement. He is Garza essentially. I'd love to have him as a depth player due to versatility and his peak play looks good, but he is just nowhere near worth his contract or any real commitment.

 

Honestly for 2024 here are the FAs I am looking at before Whitehair that aren't listed above - Jones, Santos, Billings, Tonyan, Green, Foreman, Dylan Cole,  Gipson.

All of them can either play a rotational role on a good team or have the potential to fill a role immediately. Of course I'd pay Whitehair more as the swing IOL than Santos but still, I think it is harder to find a starting kicker than a rotational IOL. And if Jones or Gipson suck this year they can drop off the list like anyone else but right now Whitehair isn't even in my top 10 priority FAs just on the team ATM.

If the OL holds up, the WRs, TEs, RBs will rearrange themselves to best fit Fields and the offense.  I think the Bears will keep WR1, WR2, TE1 over WR3, and CB1--- the Bears could keep WR3 over an old OC1.  The rest will be upgraded through the draft and free agents.

Edited July 18, 2023 by JibjeResearch

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, JibjeResearch said:

If the OL holds up, the WRs, TEs, RBs will rearrange themselves to best fit Fields and the offense.  I think the Bears will keep WR1, WR2, TE1 over WR3, and CB1--- the Bears could keep WR3 over an old OC1.  The rest will be upgraded through the draft and free agents.

Plus there are two guys Poles has drafted in the last two drafts that may be making a case for WR3 next year. Idc who it is that stands out, I just want Fields (or thr next QB in a worst case scenario) to have as much surrounding talent as possible.

[JibjeResearch]

2 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Plus there are two guys Poles has drafted in the last two drafts that may be making a case for WR3 next year. Idc who it is that stands out, I just want Fields (or thr next QB in a worst case scenario) to have as much surrounding talent as possible.

Yes, I agree. 

Currently, I think Mooney will take the WR2.  If Claypool takes WR2 at the end of the year, Mooney is most likely a goner.  If Kmet takes WR2 as a TE1, then it's the cheaper between Mooney and Claypool.

This is about building a strong offense cheaply because the QB1 Fields will break the bank.  The Bears win based on Fields, the rest of the guys are just supporters.  Fields will make or break the Bears.  It's like Kansas City and Philly where the QB1 is the undisputed leader.

[AZBearsFan]

19 hours ago, JibjeResearch said:

Yes, those numbers are awful for a CB1.  However, with the pass rush we had, I think he did good.  Johnson's issue is his health.  The turn over is not that important for a CB1.  A CB1 must provide 40% to 50% pass completion.  I think JJ can do that if we keep him on one side.  This year he gets to be on one side with an average pass rush.  Let see how that goes.  

I think JJ is a CB1, but not an elite CB1. 

I don’t disagree with any of that, and I think JJ could be a CB1. He just hasn’t shown to be a CB1 yet IMO. For me, given that, the financial situation the team finds itself in and the massive contract disparity between clear CB1s and CB2s, I’m not ready to pay JJ like a CB1 on a long deal yet. Top tier CB1s make $15M+ but CB2s are more like $7-8M annually.

To me JJ is a really good candidate for a bridge type deal that splits the middle on that. Would he entertain something in the neighborhood of 2/$22M with like $18M guaranteed in an extension? He just turned 24 in April. That would pay him where he’d have probably fit in in this year’s FA market AAV-wise and more than he’s shown to be worth to date IMO but also not lock him in long term at way less than what he might think he’s worth. It would also let him hit FA again at 27 and with the potential to still get 2 HUGE deals if he shows to be a legit CB1 over the next few seasons. The proposed $18M guaranteed over 2 seasons is behind Cam Sutton’s $22M from this offseason, but Sutton’s deal was also for a year longer. It also is very likely more than JJ would get in guarantees in next year’s FA market if he doesn’t show more in 2023 (Byron Murphy’s 2/$17.5M deal had $12.6M in guarantees). 

[StLunatic88]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t disagree with any of that, and I think JJ could be a CB1. He just hasn’t shown to be a CB1 yet IMO. For me, given that, the financial situation the team finds itself in and the massive contract disparity between clear CB1s and CB2s, I’m not ready to pay JJ like a CB1 on a long deal yet. Top tier CB1s make $15M+ but CB2s are more like $7-8M annually.

I have made my thoughts on Jaylon very clear, an I will continue to point to the difference of the secondary when he is in and when he is out. Now his availability is a different piece of the conversation. I think you guys severely overrate INTs by CBs, and saying he doesnt shadow #1s is not applicable to this defense. He does what he is supposed to do.

But lets talk about what a "CB1" is. Do you know how many CBs currently hold a $15m+ AAV? Less than 10. So are there only 10ish CB1s in all of the NFL? (all give you a few more who havent hit their FA). If you are talking $7-8m AAV, you are in the 30ish range, so the top of the top CB2s. There is a whole lot of room between $15m+ and $7m, and Jaylon Johnson deserves to be slotted in there, and guess what, that would pay him as a CB1 in the NFL (i.e. one of the Top 25 CBs)

So sure, if JJ comes in, guns blazing and says he wants to set the market, let him go see where the reality of the NFL actually sees him in Free Agency. But if he just wants to be paid as a CB1, then we should be locking that in (and should have used a big chunk of this years open cap space for the up front dollars) because giving him a $12-13m AVV deal, that is in reality like $10-11m AAV without the final year, is completely acceptable. And if we need to be tossing on alittle extra guaranteed dollars, because we are such a bad roster right now, just do it.

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I have made my thoughts on Jaylon very clear, an I will continue to point to the difference of the secondary when he is in and when he is out. Now his availability is a different piece of the conversation. I think you guys severely overrate INTs by CBs, and saying he doesnt shadow #1s is not applicable to this defense. He does what he is supposed to do.

But lets talk about what a "CB1" is. Do you know how many CBs currently hold a $15m+ AAV? Less than 10. So are there only 10ish CB1s in all of the NFL? (all give you a few more who havent hit their FA). If you are talking $7-8m AAV, you are in the 30ish range, so the top of the top CB2s. There is a whole lot of room between $15m+ and $7m, and Jaylon Johnson deserves to be slotted in there, and guess what, that would pay him as a CB1 in the NFL (i.e. one of the Top 25 CBs)

So sure, if JJ comes in, guns blazing and says he wants to set the market, let him go see where the reality of the NFL actually sees him in Free Agency. But if he just wants to be paid as a CB1, then we should be locking that in (and should have used a big chunk of this years open cap space for the up front dollars) because giving him a $12-13m AVV deal, that is in reality like $10-11m AAV without the final year, is completely acceptable. And if we need to be tossing on alittle extra guaranteed dollars, because we are such a bad roster right now, just do it.

When I say “CB1” in terms of JJ not being there I’m using the term to mean someone I would say is a bona fide stud at the position, and yeah, that’s a small group of 10ish guys that JJ isn’t in. A top 32 CB is technically a CB1. I don’t like when people say guys aren’t “WR1” when they really mean top tier WRs and I did just that with CBs. That’s my bad.

Reality is we have no idea what he wants, and it’d be an assumption by any of us that he’s asking for too much because he hasn’t been extended yet. If he could be locked in for the next few years somewhere in that $9-12M window it’s a bit more than I think he’s shown to be, but I wouldn’t think it’s crazy out of line. But I wouldn’t go beyond that. 

[StLunatic88]

20 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

When I say “CB1” in terms of JJ not being there I’m using the term to mean someone I would say is a bona fide stud at the position, and yeah, that’s a small group of 10ish guys that JJ isn’t in. A top 32 CB is technically a CB1. I don’t like when people say guys aren’t “WR1” when they really mean top tier WRs and I did just that with CBs. That’s my bad.

Which is exactly why I pushed back on it. Because we as a Football Fandom use those terms incorrectly. 

Just like I wouldn’t say DJ Moore is an Elite WR, but I would absolutely say he’s a WR1.

Now I think JJ is further down the list of CBs than Moore is the list of WRs, but I do believe on talent and more important fit/importance to this Defense, Jaylon is and has proven to be a CB1 here. Now if availability is something that is holding the Bears back, I can’t say I’m totally shocked there 

[JibjeResearch]

35 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Which is exactly why I pushed back on it. Because we as a Football Fandom use those terms incorrectly. 

Just like I wouldn’t say DJ Moore is an Elite WR, but I would absolutely say he’s a WR1.

Now I think JJ is further down the list of CBs than Moore is the list of WRs, but I do believe on talent and more important fit/importance to this Defense, Jaylon is and has proven to be a CB1 here. Now if availability is something that is holding the Bears back, I can’t say I’m totally shocked there 

With JJ, if he

1. Forced 35% completion and 0 TD at the end of year, he's Top elite.  Will get $20M or more per year from somebody.

2. Forced 40% completion and 1-2 TDs at the end of year, he's elite.  Will get $17M or more per year from somebody.

3. Forced 45% completion and 1-3 TD at the end of year, he's very good.  Will get around $16M or more from somebody. 

 

4. Forced 50% - 55% completion and 2-4 TD at the end of year, he's solid CB1.  Will get around $15M from somebody.  I think the Bears will try to sign him for $13M/year.  This is what I think JJ is, and he is capable of any of the top 3 levels depending on the pass rush. 

I hope the Bears keep JJ, but if not, they better find a better one in the draft.  It's not easy.  I think the Bears got lucky getting him in the 2nd round.  However, I do think Pole can find one.

[Docknstein11]

Curious what Poles thinks of Kmet as the longterm TE1 and also how the target share will be this year. How likely is it that Tonyan out produces Kmet in the pass game?