What does good look like?

[Dcash4]

Football is (almost) back, baby! I know I have been drained from all the off-season talk. So let's look ahead to this season. What will "good look like" to you this season? Breaking it down into three categories:

1) Team

2) Offense

3) Defense

[Dcash4]

Team:

- Growth. Honestly, for me, I am not sure anything else matters. I don't have any illusions of this team hoisting the Lombardi. They are not there, but they can show that they can be. The last three draft classes will be really important for jumps. Can Najee be a top 10 guy? Can Pickens become a 1 and produce like a top 20 guy? Are Leal, Porter, and Benton part of a future defensive core who increasingly take snap share? What are Heyward, Austin, Washington, and Moore -- if anything. And the biggest one: Can Kenny show that he is the dude and not just the guy after the guy. I want to see him be an unquestioned top 15 guy.

The success of these guys is more important than the W/L's, IMO. I think we have the chance to have a top end roster in the upcoming years of some things fall right and guys take reasonable jumps. That's a great foundation for the next 2-3 years. 

Offense:

- Top 15 in scoring. We have only done it once in the last 4 years and that was 2020. In that year, starting in week 12 we had a sharp decline over the last 6 weeks. We averaged 19.6 (good for 29th in the league) after that "we know what they were running" Ravens game and haven't been the same since. We had averaged 29.8 in the games prior to that. In an offensively drive league we have been, well, crap. That cannot continue. The last team to make it to the super bowl without being a top 10 scoring offense is the Peyton Broncos and I stopped at 2007 trying to find the last time both teams in the championship landed outside the mark. 

The 15th spot averaged over the last 5 years is 23.5. We need to beat that mark or heads need to roll. 

Defense:

- Show that paying big money to defenders matters: I know the Colin Cowherd stuff is going around (he is wrong with his argument), but the truth is we do have dollars tied up in defense and our defense has been bad against top offenses/QBs. Over the last two years we have accumulated a 3-10 record against what I looked at as the best offenses & QBs. In those 13 games we gave up an average of 31.5 points. That's...tragically bad. Two of those wins game in the first game of the season and we all know the first month of the season is crazy with the limit on practices in camp. 

It's smart to pay super stars and TJ Watt injury impacts some of this. But this defense being able to handle top of the league offenses and QB's matters, especially if you want to be a team that doesn't celebrate just showing up to the playoffs, but rather winning in them. Giving up 10 against the Texans this year will be great, but I'm far more concerned about the defense keeping things manageable with the Burrows and Lawrences of the world. That's players and coaches. Or else signing a good not great guy like Highsmith on defense is going to be a little awkward. 

[rlon]

If the offense takes a good step forward, the defense will be better, so the team will improve exponentially. That said, how far they could conceivably go depends squarely on Mr. Pickett. Can he have the type of game Ben had against the Colts, throwing a really good team off by switching up the run first expectation and catching them off guard? Once we have that element, the sky is the limit.

[warfelg]

TEAM - 

9-8 or better - I think that 2022 was a MASSIVE overachievement year for this team.  While this years team is better, I'm not confident that will reflect in the record right away.  So I want to see them finish above .500.  In a seeming hot take among fans, I don't care if they make the playoffs or not.

Young Captains - Does this seem strange for what does good look like? Yes.  But to me it's part of what good looks like to see younger players step into leadership roles because it's a sign that the identity is changing.  I would like to see a captain group of Pickett, Watt, Boykin, Freiemuth.  I think that's a show that the new generation is arriving.  But beyond that, I would like to see guys like Porter, Pickens, Highsmith, Warren become guys that on the sidelines who are pulling positional groups aside and hyping them up the way Cam used to.

OFFENSE - 

3500/1000/15/5 - What is those collection of numbers? Those are Picketts and Pickens numbers at the end of the year.  Pickett's good year will finish with 3500 yards and minimum 15 passing TD's.  And Pickens' good year will finish with 1000 yards and 5 TD's minimum.

4.0+/8 - This is what I want to see minimum from Najee.  4.0+ yards per rush and 8 TD's minimum.  And this isn't just a Najee thing, this relies on the OL also pulling their weight (Pun intended) to move the LOS and give Najee space to start with and be able to get at least 3.5 YBC regularly.

DEFENSE - 

3 - This is the maximum number of 40+ yard plays I want to see them give up.

2022 - This is the floor for them and it was a good year as is for that defense.  Play a little better and you are fine IMO.

 

SUMMERY - Good for this team is a bit subjective.  It more hinges on the offense than the defense IMO for all of this to be 'good'.  But in the end the team as a whole doesn't need to make the playoffs for me to think of it as good.  They just need to get to 9-8 or better in an easier way than last year.

[bigben07MVP]

Making the playoffs this year and getting Kenny some playoff experience, even if we are quickly bounced in the first round would be a huge accomplishment in my opinion.

The AFC this year is as stacked as any conference I can recall. It’s wild to me that 3 of the following teams will miss the playoffs this year (assuming 1 AFC South team, most likely the Jags). 

Bills 

Jets

Dolphins

Bengals 

Ravens

Steelers

Browns

Chiefs 

Chargers

Making the playoffs will require at least 10 wins this year. And there’s definitely a chance we could hit 10 wins and still be on the outside looking in. 

So to answer you question @Dcash4, reaching 10 or 11 wins and getting a playoff berth would be considered a “good” season to me.