Jump to content

Season Predictions


beardown3231

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, Ty21 said:

Damn, we suck so bad we lose one more game than we can play in a season?

Lol. Yep basically. 

Nah, I was back and forth on 6 wins or 7, wrote it down as 6-11 then changed my mind to 7 wins, just forgot to also adjust the losses. 

Immediately following the draft, I was much more optimistic, and had us at 11 wins. The OL health, OL play, DL play in particular, combined with no perceptible improvement in Fields all contributing. I'd add, my opinions on both the OC and DC aren't very good either... Have a feeling we may end up doing another Bears special and getting a QB next year, only to make maybe coaching changes the year after. I don't have a strong opinion on Flus himself (mostly because I'm not sure he actually does anything) but the offense looks like Getsy only had a job because of Rodgers, and the defensive push to run back to a 4-3 turned us from one of one of the best Ds in the league into a bottom feeder unit in 5 years. Losing Fangio was devastating. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's such a long season early predictions become crazy.

Cardinals used to start hot, everyone would be talking about them and then be one of worst teams in league near end of year.

49ers got a lot better when McCaffery came on board. 

A key injury or addition changes everything on a dime.

That being said, I think the AFC East, AFC North and NFC East are brutal divisions that are going to beat the hell out of each other.

 

AFC East:
1. NY Jets  
2. Miami Dolphins 
3. Bills 
4. New England Patriots 

I think a motivated Rodgers is always scary.   He seems to be able to turn it off and on still.   I think he will suck next year, but be a stud this year.   He played in bloody preseason this year in addition to practicing a lot in offseason.   That is saying something.  With the Jets defense, Jets are a scary team.

Dolphins, as we remember, are really hard to defend.  They are too fast.  

Bills are still one of best teams in league to start, but I think on a hunch they fall of this year or suffer some injuries.

AFC North:
1. Cincinnati Bengals 
2. Steelers 
3. Browns 
4. Ravens

Steelers, Ravens and Browns are underrated and have a lot of blue chip players.  They have been missing decent QB play and may all get it this year.   I think Browns and Steelers in particularly are being slept on.

AFC South:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars 
2. Titans 
3. Texans 
4. Colts

This is weakest division in football.  Jaguars walk away with it.  

AFC West:
1. Chargers 
2. Chiefs 
3. Raiders 
4. Broncos

I am not buying that Russell Wilson isn't cooked and was just a product of bad coaching.   Chargers dethrone the Chiefs this year.  SB hangover hits the Chiefs and they disappoint.  

NFC East:
1. Philadelphia Eagles 
2. Dallas Cowboys 
3. New York Giants 
4. Washington Commanders 

This division is brutal.   Used to be worst, but all the high draft picks were put to use.  Blue chippers abound.   Eagles are a repeat SB pick for me.  

NFC North:
1. Detroit Lions 
2. Chicago Bears 
3. Packers 
4. Vikings

Bears start slowish and finish strong.   Lions are the class of the division this year.  Packers have a good defense this year and are competitive throughout.  Vikings fall off.  

NFC South:
1. New Orleans Saints 
2. Bucs 
3. Panthers 
4. Falcons 

Did I say the AFC South was weakest?  I may have meant the NFC South.  Funny that area of country where best HS and College Football is played has worst pro teams.

I think Panthers get more wins than we want them to get.  Which is any.  

NFC West:
1. Seahawks 
2. 49ers 
3. Rams
4. Cardinals

Seahawks have amassed a lot of young talent.   That talent steps up this year.   I am not buying Purdy yet.  Calling it a fluke for now.  Cardinals team is demoralized.  They will suck.  

#1 Overall Draft Pick:  Cardinals

Most Valuable Player: QB Trevor Lawrence 

Offensive Player of the Year: QB Trevor Lawrence

Defensive Player of the Year: DE Myles Garrett

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Bijan Robinson

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jalen Carter

Comeback Player of the Year: S Damar Havlin

Coach of the Year: Doug Pederson

AFC Championship Game: Chargers v. Bengals

NFC Championship Game:Philadelphia Eagles vs Seahawks

Super Bowl: Chargers vs Eagles

Super Bowl Champs: Eagles

Super Bowl MVP: Hurts

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

NFC North:
1. Detroit Lions 
2. Chicago Bears 
3. Packers 
4. Vikings

Bears start slowish and finish strong.   Lions are the class of the division this year.  Packers have a good defense this year and are competitive throughout.  Vikings fall off.  

 

I can already hear a downright unpleasant Kirk Cousins screaming "Golly gosh darn it" at a reasonable level. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final average: 183

Highest game: I break 250 for the 5th time ever(2nd time ever in league)

Oh wait, you wanted Da Bears season predictions.

Fields 2500 passing yards, 20 TDs, under 10 INTs

800 rushing yards 5 rushing TDs

Herbert 1000 rush yards

Ro Johnson has flashes 600 rush yards, 3 TDs

D.J.Moore 70 receptions 1000 yards 7 TDs

Kmet: 50 receptions 800 yards 6 TDs

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With everyone having their 2023 Fields numbers in mind, especially with this being week 1, I want to point out one number in particular: 

22

That’s how many TD passes Jalen Hurts threw last year, in a season where he became one of the best players in football and probably (IMO) wins MVP if he doesn’t miss 2 games. He threw just 5 more TDs than Fields did, in the same number of games, despite having Brown/Smith/Goedert to throw to and the best OL in football.

My point with that - it’s not just the numbers that’ll show whether a player is a franchise QB or not.

The biggest difference between Hurts and Fields to this point has been efficiency. That’s where Fields needs to grow this year. I want to see him go from a 60.4% passer to a 64% one. The yardage numbers should rise anyway since I can’t see him passing just 21 times per game again, but if he can do that then the passing numbers will spike even further. Total yardage rises with efficiency. Yards/attempt rises with efficiency.

Simple math:

318 attempts at a 60.4% completion rate in 2022 netted 7.05 yards/attempt, on 192 completions at 60.4% was good for 2242 yards (11.68 yards/completion).

318 attempts at 64% nets 204 completions. At the same 11.68 yards/completion rate that’s 2382.7 yards and 7.49 yards/attempt.

Now, apply the improved efficiency ratios to a higher volume (but still low by NFL standards):

425 attempts (25/game x 17 weeks) at 64% nets 272 completions. At 11.68 yards/completion that’s 3176.9 yards and 7.48 yards/attempt. Applying Fields TD% rate from 2022 (5.3%) across 425 passes gives you 22.5 TD passes.

If he can be more efficient, and we stay committed to the run like I think we will (both because we’re good at it and because Fields is such a weapon there too that we’ll never be a 35-40 passes/game team with him) then I think these are reasonable floor numbers for him as a passer in 2023 and in my mind would constitute a really big step:

3176 yards passing, 22 TDs

900 yards rushing, 9 TDs

Note, that's if we pass 425 times, which would still be less than all but 2 teams threw in 2022 (us and Atlanta). If we passed 30 times per game (510 passes) at that same projected efficiency those passing numbers are:

3812 yards passing, 27 TDs

775 yards rushing, 8 TDs

So with all of that said, my prediction for Fields falls between the two, in line with 28 passes/game:

3562 yards passing, 25 TDs, 11 INT (2.4% INT rate)

850 rush yards, 8 TDs

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I am really on the other side than most of you. I am going to be surprised if this team has 8 wins, and absolutely shocked if we have a winning record. 

This O-Line cant stay healthy, and they were going to have some growing pains to begin with

The defense is still going to be Hot Garbage. That side of the ball is one or two injuries away from being abysmal once again

I said from the start, this was a 3 year project, and I dont think those in charge are going to stray from that.

I think we are a 5/6 win team, because Injuries are going to tear us down quickly (very little depth) and once again when it comes to weeks 16-17-18 when we are clearly out of it, we are not afraid to bench guys for draft positioning right now. I do think we get a win to start the year, its as high as they will be all year starting the season, at home, vs the rival... But after that it will start the let down. We beat the few teams we clearly out-talent (WAS, ARZ, CAR, LV) and lose a whole bunch of close games at the end when the Defense cant make a stop, and even semi-competent QBs carve us up in Prevent Defense.

But while we have a bad record, its mostly due to the Defense not being able to stop anyone when it matters. I think the current discussion around Fields is all for not, they have already made the decision when they passed on this years class and stuck with Justin. He showed what they needed to see already, which was leadership, poise and the tools they knew he had. None of that changes now, unless he self implodes and cant be the leader that he has been for the past 16 months. (he still has 2 more years of control, we do not need to sign him to a new contract yet, and shouldnt)

Justin Fields - 2023

15 games, 260/400 - 65% completion, 2960 yards - 7.4 yards per attempt, 24 TDs/15 INT; 100 rushes for 800 yards, 6 TDs/5 FUM

Thats a good year, even though some will whine that he "didnt even throw for 3000 yards" even though he clearly could have but we sit him the last 2 games as injuries are piling up. But he actually accounts for 3700 yards (close to Top 10 production for QBs) and 30 TDs to 20 Turnovers, which for the only guy the offense is running through is fine. Its 25-30% boost in passing production, on a team that is still growing. If you are going to be calling for Bagnet or whoever over that year, you might just be a hater and a lost cause.

Outside of Fields, Im not sure were going to be remembering much from this season. I dont think we will have a true "lead rusher" as in no one getting 1000 yards. Im not sure we have anyone other than Fields pass 700. I do think we end up with 4 different players (Fields, Herbert, Foreman, Johnson) all over 500 yards this year. We will all LOVE what DJ Moore brings, but it will be more tantalizing this year than actual #1 WR production. And it will be another mixed bag from the other WRs. I foresee a real issue when it comes to "who do we try to keep, Mooney/Claypool" because they will both flash, but be no where consistent enough to be decisive on who is worth an extension. I do think we will have a nice little year from Kmet, and he will live up to the new deal as JFs safety blanket. 

 

Zooming out one layer, in the NFC North, too many people are out on the Vikings too quickly. That Offense is still great, and they upgraded Thielen with Addison, plus a full season with Hockenson, and I dont think Mattison is anything less than 80% of what Cook gave them. It would be hard for their defense to be worse than last year, and brining in Flores completely outweighs trading Z. Smith, especially when they also brought in Davenport and Byron Murphy. To pretend they are now going to lose every single one of their close games this season is preposterous, thats not how regression works. Of the other 2, the Lions are all gas no breaks, but that Defense is still a mess. So while they are entertaining, they are still only half a team. And reverse that for the Packers; I think Love is nothing to worry about, but if he is even average, that Defense and OLine are still good enough to be around a .500 team. Ultimately still think QB is going to be an anchor on that team (although, I think we let them take week 18, to take the better draft positioning infront of them). Overall its a weaker division, I dont think anyone is running away with it, so that leads be to believe that it might be more status quo in '23.

NFC North

  1. Minnesota Vikings (10-7)
  2. Detroit Lions (9-8)
  3. Green Bay Packers (6-11)
  4. Chicago Bears (5-12)

 

Zooming out again, I feel pretty confident in the rest of the NFC, as long as no catastrophic injuries occur. San Fran should sleep walk to a West Title, seems like Seattle is more of the 2nd half team than the first half of last year, while both the Rams and Cards are trying or will try to tank for QB positioning. I feel nearly as locked in with the South and the Saints easily winning there as they upgraded to Derek Carr and have what ever is left of Michael Thomas back. The Falcons will surprise some with what might be the new wave of offense in the NFL, but that Defense is still below average and the final two will be toward the Bottom of the League, although Baker will look good for a few weeks like he always does before he implodes. And finally the only good division in the NFC, they never have repeat winners, and I think that continues as the Cowboys are a regular season juggernaut that people dont realize, with the Eagles still a Super Bowl favorite right behind them, and the Giants fighting for a WC spot. I have no clue where the fairytale for the Commanders is coming from, they are going to be bad, but fool everyone early on.

NFC Playoffs

  1. Dallas Cowboys (13-4)
  2. New Orleans Saints (13-4)
  3. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
  4. Minnesota Vikings (10-7)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
  • New York Giants (10-7)
  • Detroit Lions (9-8)

Unlike our division, in the AFC the North will be the strongest division in all of Football. Joe Burrow is on a war path to get paid and does so by getting the #1 seed plus the MVP, the Ravens cant keep pace but still have a good year as the best WC team, with both the Steelers and Browns fighting for the other WC spots as well. Even though they fight through the year with injuries and a thinner roster than years past, the Chiefs still take the West, Mahomes is just too good. Denver has a bounce back year setting up the hype for '24, while the Chargers fall short of the playoffs and they move on from Staley, and the Raiders have the weirdest year as they have major upsets but a bad record. Trevor Lawrence puts up an MVP like season if it wasnt for Burrow and they run away with the division, the Texans surprise and win a bunch of close games as Demeco makes a run at Coach of the Year, Titans struggle all year to stay around .500 and miss out on trading away all their aging talent and the Colts arent good but end up winning useless games as Irsay doesnt understand what he is doing. The East will be a dog fight all year, but the Bills sneak out on tiebreakers over the Jets who have an amazing second half, while the Pats look better on Offense but only so much as Mac has a ceiling as they fight for a WC spot and the Dolphins are still respectable even though Tua misses time yet again.

AFC Playoffs

  1. Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
  4. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
  • Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
  • New York Jets (11-6)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Man the AFC is so much better than the NFC. I still think its Joe Burrow's year, and its going to take their own doing to knock him off. They take out the Jaguars in the AFC title game, while the Cowboys finally break through due to their Defense and Tony Pollard/the OLine. They take down the Niners in the NFC Championship game as Brock Purdy can only take you so far. Then the Cincinnati Burrow's raise the Lombardi as we now wait to watch the real drama, Joe Burrow holding out and holding the stingiest Franchise hostage for the Richest Contract in Football History.

 

**Best part of this season - We end up with 2 Top 10 Draft Picks, Carolina's being Top 5

Edited by StLunatic88
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 months later...
On 9/4/2023 at 7:22 PM, beardown3231 said:

If the Panthers have the worst record in football, I'll do a handstand down my stairs. Of course I would then not see what the Bears do with the #1 pick because I'll be either in a coma or grave

Goodbye everyone ✌🏼

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...