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Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?


NinerNation21

Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?  

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  1. 1. Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?



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1 minute ago, 49ersfan said:

Fair to say that Purdy's play is what people expected Mac Jones upside to be?

As one of the 3 people who wanted to draft Jones, Purdy is better than what I thought Jones would be. I thought Jones would read the defense well but not as good as Purdy is. And I didn’t think Jones could move the pocket like Purdy can. Arm talent wise, fairly similar to what I thought from Jones although I felt better about Jones throwing the deep ball than Purdy but feel better about Purdy on the intermediate stuff. 

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1 hour ago, 49ersfan said:

Fair to say that Purdy's play is what people expected Mac Jones upside to be?

No. Purdy >>. But I was never the biggest Mac fan. I thought he was a fine middle of the first round pick and all, but I think Purdy has surpassed what I thought Mac would be with the niners. I think Purdy throws with better anticipation, and I think he's a much stronger chaos merchant who doesn't make nearly as bad decisions. 

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2 hours ago, Geek said:

Honest question. What would Brock need to win MVP? An undefeated record? Most passing yards?

Just keep doing what he's doing. Obviously he likely won't throw 0 interceptions, but if he pilots the best team in the league and has a great season statistically, he's going to get some love. Will he win? I don't know. I think that there are a number of likely voters who will hold kyle and the cast against him. I think that's unavoidable. I think in in order for that to change, we may need to see unrealistic performances. 

But within a realistic range of performance outcomes, I think he'll get some love. 

Ultimately, I think Josh Allen is going to win it though. 

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4 hours ago, Geek said:

Honest question. What would Brock need to win MVP? An undefeated record? Most passing yards?

Get drafted in the first 100 picks?

I don't worry about perception based things.  The media guys are just too rant-y and hive minded to predict what they will go gaga for in late December.   I think about what Brock has to do to win a Superbowl.  

Edited by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420
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I don’t remember which thread I said it in but I wrote something along the lines of one day Purdy’s going to have a horrible game and lose it for us. We’ll know if he’s got what it takes based on what he does in the next game. Was hoping we wouldn’t find that out for a while, but hey, here we are. 
 

And did Purdy single handedly lose the game? Definitely not. But he sure as hell didn’t pick the team up when they were struggling. So I can’t wait to see how he reacts this week. 

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19 minutes ago, straighthate said:

I don’t remember which thread I said it in but I wrote something along the lines of one day Purdy’s going to have a horrible game and lose it for us. We’ll know if he’s got what it takes based on what he does in the next game. Was hoping we wouldn’t find that out for a while, but hey, here we are. 
 

And did Purdy single handedly lose the game? Definitely not. But he sure as hell didn’t pick the team up when they were struggling. So I can’t wait to see how he reacts this week. 

Yeah, this is the big sticking point with the haters. What does Brock look like when things aren't going his way. Nothing went his way on Sunday and he stunk. I will say that Brock's handling of the weather was less than ideal, which is worrisome as we get into the winter months, but as you said, Brock didn't lose this game for us. 

I put a lot of blame on the inexcusable bad mistakes that happened throughout the entire game. I also blame Kyle for what it seems like his inability to pivot the game plan away from CMC and toward everyone else. It felt like when CMC went down, Kyle's mind went blank. 

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2 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

Yeah, this is the big sticking point with the haters. What does Brock look like when things aren't going his way. Nothing went his way on Sunday and he stunk. I will say that Brock's handling of the weather was less than ideal, which is worrisome as we get into the winter months, but as you said, Brock didn't lose this game for us. 

I put a lot of blame on the inexcusable bad mistakes that happened throughout the entire game. I also blame Kyle for what it seems like his inability to pivot the game plan away from CMC and toward everyone else. It felt like when CMC went down, Kyle's mind went blank. 

His mind went blank even before CMC showed any sign of being hurt. Pretty much after the first drive Kyle lost his way. So I don’t blame Purdy for all of it, but I saw enough bad throws that I hope he blames himself and we see what he can do. 
 

As for the weather, I was concerned he screwed up his elbow and was losing grip cuz of nerve issues. Easy answers the rain, but he played all winter last year and I don’t remember thinking this guy can’t play in bad weather. Iowa’s not California either. Was there ever a knock on him that he struggles with poor weather?

 

I think he was just rattled and in his own dome. Wasn’t BCB. Needed the little blue pill to get his mojo back but everytime he’d start to show some promise there was a drop or a penalty or something that just killed it. I blame the mental side of it more than conditions. 

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12 hours ago, straighthate said:

I don’t remember which thread I said it in but I wrote something along the lines of one day Purdy’s going to have a horrible game and lose it for us. We’ll know if he’s got what it takes based on what he does in the next game. Was hoping we wouldn’t find that out for a while, but hey, here we are. 
 

And did Purdy single handedly lose the game? Definitely not. But he sure as hell didn’t pick the team up when they were struggling. So I can’t wait to see how he reacts this week. 

Not much he can do about penalties, bad OL play, and receivers dropping balls even if Purdy was more accurate on Sunday in nasty weather. 

Last season the defense was struggling hard in Vegas, and I'd say he "picked them up" with his performance. 

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe
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On 10/17/2023 at 10:56 AM, NinerNation21 said:

Yeah, this is the big sticking point with the haters. What does Brock look like when things aren't going his way. Nothing went his way on Sunday and he stunk. I will say that Brock's handling of the weather was less than ideal, which is worrisome as we get into the winter months, but as you said, Brock didn't lose this game for us. 

I put a lot of blame on the inexcusable bad mistakes that happened throughout the entire game. I also blame Kyle for what it seems like his inability to pivot the game plan away from CMC and toward everyone else. It felt like when CMC went down, Kyle's mind went blank. 

I think Brock Purdy is a direct reflection of Kyle Shanahan.  Most of the time that is really good, but sometimes he Kyle gets ego-locked.  I haven't watched the film, but your are right about the team's lack of adjustments.  Losing two weapons, and Aiyuk having a rough game didn't help.

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Bill barnwell and Nate tice had the Purdy discussion on barnwells podcast. 

Barnwell flat out asked him how many QBs he thought could do as well as Purdy with the niners and Nate said he thought 19-21. 

He also said that right now, if Purdy didn't get any better, he wouldn't commit to him.

Pretty good listen, all things considered.

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38 minutes ago, Forge said:

Bill barnwell and Nate tice had the Purdy discussion on barnwells podcast. 

Barnwell flat out asked him how many QBs he thought could do as well as Purdy with the niners and Nate said he thought 19-21. 

He also said that right now, if Purdy didn't get any better, he wouldn't commit to him.

Pretty good listen, all things considered.

Nate is a guy that is all about the physical characteristics. He thought Anthony Richardson was the best QB in last years draft, which he may end up being but yeah. I disagreed then and with this subject.

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

Bill barnwell and Nate tice had the Purdy discussion on barnwells podcast. 

Barnwell flat out asked him how many QBs he thought could do as well as Purdy with the niners and Nate said he thought 19-21. 

He also said that right now, if Purdy didn't get any better, he wouldn't commit to him.

Pretty good listen, all things considered.

I have no idea how to rate Purdy. But it's higher than the 19-21 area. We see dudes every week not know that they are hot. Badly misread coverages. Or, if they do the former two, they have absolutely no athleticism to make plays. And I haven't seen anyone anticipate some of the like 12-20 yard in breakers as well has Purdy does. Tua sometimes. But like that cover 2 second window shot against Pittsburgh and similar are just nutty feel throws that play in any offense. Purdy really adds some value.

His arm is the obvious issue. He struggles with some throws that good backups can make fairly regularly. And even guys with similar noodles throw better deep outside the numbers than Purdy does (think Philip Rivers etc.) because they sort of lollipop it up there and give their guys chances. Purdy always rips those suckers on a line and has to be dead perfect to complete them. I'm not sure he's ever going to be particularly useful out there. But at least he throws them. And he is quite good at the back shoulder stuff because he rips things quite accurately on a line.

Long story short, I'd love more data points, but I think that saying that 20 dudes could put up ~125 passer rating and over 9 yards per attempt in this offense for five weeks (love to get to 8 weeks for the outlier Cleveland data point to settle) is silly. Like...the offense just plays against a lot of guys that you might evaluate as better in a vacuum. Aaron Rodgers and similar players really don't like or have a feel for the in breakers like Purdy does. They might be better players in a generic offense, but that isn't the goal. The middle of the field is the most valuable area to target on a per play basis. It yields the most YAC. It can be pressured by the running game. We don't target it over and over by accident. 

I'd obviously take Mahomes. And Josh Allen plays with a lot of deep over routes and is just a monster. He wouldn't need to be as much of a hero here. Herbert is a tremendous overall player and would absolutely smoke it. Burrow as well. Trevor Lawrence has been a tick late too often for me, but his arm strength and athleticism would smooth that out. Stafford is getting it done in a similar offense with worse weapons. Tua plays a lot like Brock does, but I'm not sure that he doesn't have a better feel for their more vertical center of the field offense than he would for ours. But he anticipates well, is accurate, and has a feel for the middle of the field. These are the primary skills. Kirk does a lot of the same things and is much better outside the numbers, but is an absolute statue. Dak might play relatively similarly to Brock. Maybe with a touch bigger arm. But he's been so susceptible to poor play in less than ideal conditions and Brock has done a lot of his work behind a mediocre to poor pass protecting offensive line. Jalen Hurts is an excellent player, but this isn't his sort of offense. I get taking some of the other guys over Brock based on a larger sample size and track record, but I don't think that they have any merit based on the samples we have from Brock. So yeah. I'd obviously take three dudes for this particular offense. Probably take 5 or so beyond that but am waiting on more data. And there are many that I think are either just worse in a generic offense or worse for us specifically.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, JIllg said:

I have no idea how to rate Purdy. But it's higher than the 19-21 area. We see dudes every week not know that they are hot. Badly misread coverages. Or, if they do the former two, they have absolutely no athleticism to make plays. And I haven't seen anyone anticipate some of the like 12-20 yard in breakers as well has Purdy does. Tua sometimes. But like that cover 2 second window shot against Pittsburgh and similar are just nutty feel throws that play in any offense. Purdy really adds some value.

His arm is the obvious issue. He struggles with some throws that good backups can make fairly regularly. And even guys with similar noodles throw better deep outside the numbers than Purdy does (think Philip Rivers etc.) because they sort of lollipop it up there and give their guys chances. Purdy always rips those suckers on a line and has to be dead perfect to complete them. I'm not sure he's ever going to be particularly useful out there. But at least he throws them. And he is quite good at the back shoulder stuff because he rips things quite accurately on a line.

Long story short, I'd love more data points, but I think that saying that 20 dudes could put up ~125 passer rating and over 9 yards per attempt in this offense for five weeks (love to get to 8 weeks for the outlier Cleveland data point to settle) is silly. Like...the offense just plays against a lot of guys that you might evaluate as better in a vacuum. Aaron Rodgers and similar players really don't like or have a feel for the in breakers like Purdy does. They might be better players in a generic offense, but that isn't the goal. The middle of the field is the most valuable area to target on a per play basis. It yields the most YAC. It can be pressured by the running game. We don't target it over and over by accident. 

I'd obviously take Mahomes. And Josh Allen plays with a lot of deep over routes and is just a monster. He wouldn't need to be as much of a hero here. Herbert is a tremendous overall player and would absolutely smoke it. Burrow as well. Trevor Lawrence has been a tick late too often for me, but his arm strength and athleticism would smooth that out. Stafford is getting it done in a similar offense with worse weapons. Tua plays a lot like Brock does, but I'm not sure that he doesn't have a better feel for their more vertical center of the field offense than he would for ours. But he anticipates well, is accurate, and has a feel for the middle of the field. These are the primary skills. Kirk does a lot of the same things and is much better outside the numbers, but is an absolute statue. Dak might play relatively similarly to Brock. Maybe with a touch bigger arm. But he's been so susceptible to poor play in less than ideal conditions and Brock has done a lot of his work behind a mediocre to poor pass protecting offensive line. Jalen Hurts is an excellent player, but this isn't his sort of offense. I get taking some of the other guys over Brock based on a larger sample size and track record, but I don't think that they have any merit based on the samples we have from Brock. So yeah. I'd obviously take three dudes for this particular offense. Probably take 5 or so beyond that but am waiting on more data. And there are many that I think are either just worse in a generic offense or worse for us specifically.

 

 

He didn't get too into the weeds on it...he had Purdy over Baker, Pickett, Deshaun and Dobbs but named Tannehill as basically the cut off. 

For me, that's tough to separate Tannehill from his situation as well, but man he looks cooked. I get what he's going for there though. 

He said he'd definitely take Stroud, Dak and Geno over Purdy . I think that tier range is about right. The guys from 12-18....I'm not sure how huge the difference is there and I think Purdy fits in reasonably well with those guys.  I think you can 100% make a case that Derek Carr is like 17/18 and I think you can make case that Purdy is just better in a vacuum or at least comparable. 

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