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Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?


NinerNation21

Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?  

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  1. 1. Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?



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29 minutes ago, Forge said:

He didn't get too into the weeds on it...he had Purdy over Baker, Pickett, Deshaun and Dobbs but named Tannehill as basically the cut off. 

For me, that's tough to separate Tannehill from his situation as well, but man he looks cooked. I get what he's going for there though. 

He said he'd definitely take Stroud, Dak and Geno over Purdy . I think that tier range is about right. The guys from 12-18....I'm not sure how huge the difference is there and I think Purdy fits in reasonably well with those guys.  I think you can 100% make a case that Derek Carr is like 17/18 and I think you can make case that Purdy is just better in a vacuum or at least comparable. 

Stroud makes sense. Dak, not so much. 

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2 minutes ago, GW21 said:

Stroud makes sense. Dak, not so much. 

People are unnecessarily hard on Dak. He's fine. Still a top 15 guy, maybe top 12. He's always a favorite of the tapeheads though.

He's being massively neutered by McCarthy right now, but largely I think he's just Kirk cousins, tbh. 

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51 minutes ago, Forge said:

He didn't get too into the weeds on it...he had Purdy over Baker, Pickett, Deshaun and Dobbs but named Tannehill as basically the cut off. 

For me, that's tough to separate Tannehill from his situation as well, but man he looks cooked. I get what he's going for there though. 

He said he'd definitely take Stroud, Dak and Geno over Purdy . I think that tier range is about right. The guys from 12-18....I'm not sure how huge the difference is there and I think Purdy fits in reasonably well with those guys.  I think you can 100% make a case that Derek Carr is like 17/18 and I think you can make case that Purdy is just better in a vacuum or at least comparable. 

Name the 12 that are obviously better. I can get to about 8 where after last weeks bad game that you could have have argument for and after that it is a meh argument at best. 

Mahomes, Tua, Lawrence, Lamar, Allen, Hurts, Burrow, Herbert and Stafford. Go one more with Stroud and I'm at 10 and reaching people wanted to see more from Brock after 10 games but after 6 games Stroud gets a pass? I don't need to read you the stats, you've obviously watched all the games. To borrow an argument from Haberman he's getting A's on all the tests (except the last one) what more do you want? I think your being a little hard on him. 

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I'm avoiding work right now, so here are Brock's numbers over his 14 regular season/postseason starts + projected 3 games based on averages to complete a full 17-game season. In parenthesis is where he'd rank among QBs last season. 

  • Completions: 311 (12th)
  • Attempts: 464 (15th)
  • CMP%: 67% (8th)
  • Yards: 3,946 (10th)
  • TDs: 32 (3rd)
  • INTs: 5 (1st)
  • Passer Rating: 111.9 (1st)
  • Y/A: 8.5 (2nd)
  • TD%: 6.9% (1st)
  • INT%: 1.1% (1st) 
  • Rushing TDs: 5 (5th)

A couple of notes on these numbers: I'm counting the Miami game from last year as his first start and I've excluded the NFC Championship game since he didn't really play. 

Brock would rank top 3 in TDs, INTs, Rating, Y/A, TD%, and INT%.

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3 hours ago, Ftn49 said:

Name the 12 that are obviously better. I can get to about 8 where after last weeks bad game that you could have have argument for and after that it is a meh argument at best. 

Mahomes, Tua, Lawrence, Lamar, Allen, Hurts, Burrow, Herbert and Stafford. Go one more with Stroud and I'm at 10 and reaching people wanted to see more from Brock after 10 games but after 6 games Stroud gets a pass? I don't need to read you the stats, you've obviously watched all the games. To borrow an argument from Haberman he's getting A's on all the tests (except the last one) what more do you want? I think your being a little hard on him. 

There's a cut off where there is a number of guys who are basically the same person. One year you could rank them one way, and then the next you could rank them the exact opposite and both ways make sense. That's the grouping I'd probably have Brock in right now. I didn't break down the rankings or anything, so if that tier is actually like 9-15 or 10-16 or 12 -18, it's all the same. The tapeheads almost always view Stafford / Dak / Geno favorably. I am not at all surprised when they have those guys like a full tier ahead of Brock. I mean, I trust Brock more than Dak right now, I think, but it is what it is. 

In this situation, he's talking about guys who can put up what Purdy is doing. Guys like Goff and Cousins should absolutely be in that group imo, and 2 years ago Dak lead the number one offense by dvoa, so I shouldn't have that much doubt on what he can do as well. Geno probably makes sense for most people as well. I'm less bullish on Geno than the tape heads. A guy like Kyler probably doesn't work in this system and situation, but may be much better than brock in other ones, so he's kind of an interesting dude. 

Nate said 19-21, I think that is too many / too low.  It almost felt like he had Brock closer to guys like Kenny Pickett and Josh Dobbs than he would Geno / Dak, which is too far the other way for me.  Off the top of my head I'd reason that there are roughly 14? Give it more of a range just because I Haven't actually sat down and considered and thought about it. 

 

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6 hours ago, Forge said:

He didn't get too into the weeds on it...he had Purdy over Baker, Pickett, Deshaun and Dobbs but named Tannehill as basically the cut off. 

For me, that's tough to separate Tannehill from his situation as well, but man he looks cooked. I get what he's going for there though. 

He said he'd definitely take Stroud, Dak and Geno over Purdy . I think that tier range is about right. The guys from 12-18....I'm not sure how huge the difference is there and I think Purdy fits in reasonably well with those guys.  I think you can 100% make a case that Derek Carr is like 17/18 and I think you can make case that Purdy is just better in a vacuum or at least comparable. 

I get that. Stroud, Geno, and Goff are in a similar tier to Purdy for me in a vacuum and Purdy has upside for us specifically. Stroud is less precise but has a much more powerful arm. Geno is not nearly the same playmaker outside of structure but again, stronger arm, better outside the numbers. Goff is very similar to Cousins. Operates well, but is a total statue. And like Dak, you have to protect him.

I get putting all of them ahead of Purdy, but I don't necessarily agree. I think that the arm strength stuff is easy and obvious. The weapons and Shanahan are easy and obvious factors. But like...Goff has a monster offensive line, one of the four best playcallers in the game, a great suite of weapons, has played one good defense, and has produced mostly worse than Purdy. 

Long story short, most real starter quality guys are their situation with a bit of upside here and downside there. I think Purdy is in that group and his upsides and downsides dovetail nicely with what we do. The only problem is figuring out the best way to compensate that in the second contract (and getting cost controlled players when he needs to be paid). And that problem is a couple of years away.

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7 minutes ago, JIllg said:

Long story short, most real starter quality guys are their situation with a bit of upside here and downside there. I think Purdy is in that group and his upsides and downsides dovetail nicely with what we do. The only problem is figuring out the best way to compensate that in the second contract (and getting cost controlled players when he needs to be paid). And that problem is a couple of years away.

Pretty much this. 

I say the bolded all of the time. That's how you get guys like Goff looking like a top 7 QB one year and barely a top 20 guy the next. 

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6 minutes ago, Forge said:

Pretty much this. 

I say the bolded all of the time. That's how you get guys like Goff looking like a top 7 QB one year and barely a top 20 guy the next. 

I'd be all with trying to get another starter quality guy on another rookie contract but like, there are a lot of options that can be worse. And going just a tier down to your Garoppolos and Carrs and such is pretty killer. Much less when you get a rookie that just isn't an NFL starter of any flavor.

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5 hours ago, JIllg said:

I get that. Stroud, Geno, and Goff are in a similar tier to Purdy for me in a vacuum and Purdy has upside for us specifically. Stroud is less precise but has a much more powerful arm. Geno is not nearly the same playmaker outside of structure but again, stronger arm, better outside the numbers. Goff is very similar to Cousins. Operates well, but is a total statue. And like Dak, you have to protect him.

I get putting all of them ahead of Purdy, but I don't necessarily agree. I think that the arm strength stuff is easy and obvious. The weapons and Shanahan are easy and obvious factors. But like...Goff has a monster offensive line, one of the four best playcallers in the game, a great suite of weapons, has played one good defense, and has produced mostly worse than Purdy. 

Long story short, most real starter quality guys are their situation with a bit of upside here and downside there. I think Purdy is in that group and his upsides and downsides dovetail nicely with what we do. The only problem is figuring out the best way to compensate that in the second contract (and getting cost controlled players when he needs to be paid). And that problem is a couple of years away.

Long Story Long

 

We are going to have to eat crap one of these years.  I am not looking forward to it, but it has been a really long run.  Three years in a row is good in the modern NFL, and this team has been stout since 2019. 

The time is now, I feel like the team's window is getting smaller, faster.  There is a solid two year window, after that, everything is up in the air.  There will never be a better time than this year for the team to win a ring,  If we can keep the band together through Purdy's 1st contract, I like our chances. I feel ok about the cap, but the players are getting older and hard to replace.  There aren't any Trent Williams-es coming up from college, Deebo and CMC are better and more unique than whoever we bring in to fill those two spots. 

The truth is trying to build the same machine again may not work as well.  The Yac Bro's came together organically.  I am not sure there is a dude in the NFL that could replace McC, Deebo, or Kittle with respect to all of the things they do, and there are no Trent Williams-es coming out of college.  When the time comes, replacing those guys will be hard and we will likely bring in a different balance of skills. 

I think we need to appreciate this team while they are here, and I really hope they take advantage of this grouping they have the next two years, because everything always changes in the NFL, and anything can happen.

Anyway.....I think Purdy is in the Upper mid Tier. You have the 6 or 8 Elite guys, then I suppose around 20 or so guys that when paired with the right players and system can be win football games and challenge for a championship.  I think Geno is in the same tier, but he would not fit with Kyle because he holds a very strong preference to outside targets.  Derrick Carr, Andy Dalton, Russel Wilson, Jimmy G, Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield have all played pretty consistent winning NFL football. .  I have Him close to Goff, Cousins, just after Stafford somewhere.  I rank them now, based on the system/team they have.  The media sells scheme fit and complimentary skill sets as negatives against individual players, but it's silly talk.  Every QB plays in a system.  Whether he fits it or not matters a lot, and the QB doesn't have control over that.

 

Who could do what Purdy does, in Kyle's system, with the players we have, at a similar level.  

 

1) Mahomes - ye, dude is quick witted and gifted

2) Herbert, yeah, only bigger.  We'd have to dust off the ole Danny Gray in the Garage.

3)Josh Allen - Yeah, but I get Elway Reeves vibes with this one.  I feel like he and kyle would always be angry, but still win football games.  

4)Tua -he's doing it now, so yeah

5) Hurts yeah, but with more running.  He's accurate and smart

6)Lamar Jackson - Interesting, but I think Lamar would pick it up well enough.

7)Joe Burrrow - yeah, but with a fur coat and cigar

8)Matt Stafford - ya, only old

9)Jared Goff - yeah, but taller and slower with less processing speed.  For this team, right now, this is where I start to favor Purdy.

10)Kirk Cousins - yeah, he could play well and win games.  He doesn't hold up to pressure the way Purdy does though

11)Dak Yeah, but the mistakes would drive Kyle crazy.  I prefer Purdy

 

 

I think for the team to get Purdy on a second contract, we would have to find guys that have multi position versatility and can get RAC.  I think college will produce some of those guys each year, hopefully.  I think we are getting the most from Purdy, and it's more than any of us expected.  I hope the team can bring in the right type of guys that continue to do that, but the future is a long time away.

 

Edited by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420
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Purdy isn't responsible for the defense giving up over 450 yards and making Addison and Hockensen look like prime Moss and Gronk, nor is he responsible for CMC fumbling in the red zone and getting held to 3.0 YPC or Moody missing another chip shot. If anything, he was a pretty big reason why we were still in it going into the 4th rather than getting blown out. Unfortunately, things fell apart once we actually hit the 4th quarter and the blame is definitely on him for those two awful picks, but can't just throw out the rest of the game or even the season he's had so far. It's clear from these past two games that he still has a long way to go to be considered among the NFL's elite, if he ever gets there, but he's far from the biggest reason why we lost this game. It's important to remember that he still hasn't started a full season's worth of games in the NFL before we overreact and of course he's still performed far beyond anyone could realistically expect from a 7th round pick

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1 hour ago, jonnguy2015 said:

Purdy isn't responsible for the defense giving up over 450 yards and making Addison and Hockensen look like prime Moss and Gronk, nor is he responsible for CMC fumbling in the red zone and getting held to 3.0 YPC or Moody missing another chip shot. If anything, he was a pretty big reason why we were still in it going into the 4th rather than getting blown out. Unfortunately, things fell apart once we actually hit the 4th quarter and the blame is definitely on him for those two awful picks, but can't just throw out the rest of the game or even the season he's had so far. It's clear from these past two games that he still has a long way to go to be considered among the NFL's elite, if he ever gets there, but he's far from the biggest reason why we lost this game. It's important to remember that he still hasn't started a full season's worth of games in the NFL before we overreact and of course he's still performed far beyond anyone could realistically expect from a 7th round pick

Well yeah, but it depends what the debate is. Did Brock lose the 49ers that game or is Brock a legit quality starter in the NFL? I agree he didn't necessarily lose that game when everything is contextualized, but he had his Joe Montana moment to shine on two drives, and **** the bed with two hideous passes. Fair or not, the signature moments are what immortalize QBs. There will be other games where key players are hurt, the defense is out to lunch, or the special teams is a factory of sadness warranting a shootout just to keep pace. Brock will need to put the team on his back. What he can't do is absolutely give the game away, even if he wasn't responsible for the hole to begin with. He did it in the Raiders game last year, but failed in Minnesota. You're right that he's young, and has time to grow. 

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe
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Well, I stand to eat much crap here, but a little adversity is good for character.  There are going to be up's and downs.  He just needs to play better in key moments.   His game wasn't horrible, we are just giving back all the breaks we got early in the season.

Edited by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420
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Nothing has changed for me, personally.

It wasn't going to be all sunshine and roses.

There will be bumps in the road and maturation that has to take place.

Still, my point remains the same.

Very few QBs I'd take over Brock for this offense, specifically.

I would have liked for him to be a little more clutch late in the 4th quarter last night, but I could say that about alot of QBs with waaaaay more experience in those situations.

He'll hopefully grow & learn from it.

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16 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

Nothing has changed for me, personally.

It wasn't going to be all sunshine and roses.

There will be bumps in the road and maturation that has to take place.

Still, my point remains the same.

Very few QBs I'd take over Brock for this offense, specifically.

I would have liked for him to be a little more clutch late in the 4th quarter last night, but I could say that about alot of QBs with waaaaay more experience in those situations.

He'll hopefully grow & learn from it.

You do realize that Brock has attempted like the 3rd fewest passing attempts for any starting QB this year? There's a reason for that and it's b/c the more they have Brock throw the more he gets exposed e.g. the last 2 weeks. Brock cannot carry this offense to wins like QB's such as Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow, Lawrence, Hurts. By seasons end we'll just be talking about how Brock is just another stop gap QB while the Niners wait for a franchise one to emerge.

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