The MVP race

[notthatbluestuff]

Well I guess Dak is kinda, sorta in the conversation lol.

[scar988]

4 minutes ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Well I guess Dak is kinda, sorta in the conversation lol.

Stroud legitimately is in it right now. 

[AngusMcFife]

I was skeptical of Stroud's MVP chances...

Until I watched the Texans-Bengals highlights 😮

[Nabbs4u]

The fact not a single Defensive player or Tyreek is even listed, proves its a glorified QB's award. 

[AkronsWitness]

23 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

The fact not a single Defensive player or Tyreek is even listed, proves its a glorified QB's award. 

I can only imaging the look of those people faces when they walk up to the board (or screen) and have to write 'Brock Purdy +2000' or 'Josh Allen +3000' but leave Tyreke Hill and Myles Garretts names complete out with zero odds.

I would be completely fine with MVP voting if the league just came out and clearly defined the rules for it and admitted its a QB award. But to pretend that every player has a chance if they perform well enough is just lying to your face. A little transparency please into the voting and criteria. 

Edited November 15, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[Danger]

On 11/12/2023 at 8:14 PM, NoFlyZone said:

The inclusion of Hurts at the exclusion of Dak is.. interesting. Dak has objectively been better. 
 

Cousins also was very much in the conversation before the Achilles injury.

If that's your logic, then you may as well vote for Tua, because Tua is better statistically than Dak and has the same effective resume otherwise.

[Soko]

1 hour ago, Nabbs4u said:

The fact not a single Defensive player or Tyreek is even listed, proves its a glorified QB's award. 

Yeaaaah that queation was totally up in the air until this year lol

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, Nabbs4u said:

The fact not a single Defensive player or Tyreek is even listed, proves its a glorified QB's award. 

Well yes because any given QB is more valuable than any given WR or defensive player. This was decided LONG ago and is basically baked into this award as an assumption. So yeah, people aren't gonna talk about defensive players (there are none having historically dominant seasons) or Tyreek Hill when you've got QB's who are more worthy

[VigilantZombie]

CJ Stroud should be at the top of the list.

Mahomes has one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, he is way too high on that list.

Having said that, there are a few Edge Rushers that are more worthy than all of those MFers.

TJ Watt, Myles Garrett,  okay well that's it.

Edited November 15, 2023 by VigilantZombie

[AkronsWitness]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Well yes because any given QB is more valuable than any given WR or defensive player. This was decided LONG ago and is basically baked into this award as an assumption. So yeah, people aren't gonna talk about defensive players (there are none having historically dominant seasons) or Tyreek Hill when you've got QB's who are more worthy

There's gotta be a line though to that theory that QBs get this massive boost in literally everything they do just because they are a QB.

It's basically saying the best defense player in the NFL, who is also likely a top 3 overall player in the NFL is not as valuable as the 9th or 11th best QB. That's where I would draw the line, in that range right there.

While I believe the top 5-6 QBs are more valuable than the best defensive player (the truly elite QBs), there are currently a few QBs receiving MVP odds that most would say are frindge top 10 QBs and that's the case where I would draw the line at.

They need to rework MVP voting like the Heisman and have 5 finalists--the top 3 QBs, 1 spot for the best skill position player (OPOY) and 1 spot for the best defense player (DPOY). Then have the voters vote out of those 5 who is the most valuable.

So hypothetically the voting would be something like:

Jackson(1), Hurts(2), Stroud(3),  Hill(opoy) and Garrett(dpoy) 

Edited November 16, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

12 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

There's gotta be a line though to that theory that QBs get this massive boost in literally everything they do just because they are a QB.

It's basically saying the best defense player in the NFL, who is also likely a top 3 overall player in the NFL is not as valuable as the 9th or 11th best QB. That's where I would draw the line, in that range right there.

It's not about the player themself, it's about the season they're having. Aaron Donald is more valuable to the Rams than Zach Wilson to the Jets, but is Aaron Donald having an MVP type of year? No, he's not. And neither is Myles Garrett or TJ Watt or any other of the superstar defensive guys.

We've seen before that in order for non-QB's to win you need a down year from QB's and a historically amazing season from someone else. We have OPOY and DPOY to account for non-QB's basically, but MVP is basically the QB award unless something amazing happens.

[Jakuvious]

29 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

There's gotta be a line though to that theory that QBs get this massive boost in literally everything they do just because they are a QB.

It's basically saying the best defense player in the NFL, who is also likely a top 3 overall player in the NFL is not as valuable as the 9th or 11th best QB. That's where I would draw the line, in that range right there.

While I believe the top 5-6 QBs are more valuable than the best defensive player (the truly elite QBs), there are currently a few QBs receiving MVP odds that most would say are frindge top 10 QBs and that's the case where I would draw the line at.

They need to rework MVP voting like the Heisman and have 5 finalists--the top 3 QBs, 1 spot for the best skill position player (OPOY) and 1 spot for the best defense player (DPOY). Then have the voters vote out of those 5 who is the most valuable.

So hypothetically the voting would be something like:

Jackson(1), Hurts(2), Stroud(3),  Hill(opoy) and Garrett(dpoy) 

The odds aren't really about that right now, though. The odds are about a projection to the end of the season. So let's say the 5 most valuable players in the league are all QBs. We basically know then that the MVP is going to be a QB. So if the top 15 guys in MVP odds are all QBs, it doesn't mean the 15 most valuable players are all QBs, it's more that we don't know which of those 15 QBs are going to be the top 5 at the end of the season. So like, Trevor Lawrence or Dak Prescott might not be more valuable than Myles Garrett so far this season. But that's not really what we're measuring here when we look at MVP odds. It's which is more likely, Trevor Lawrence having an 8 game stretch to end the season that makes him the most valuable QB, or every QB ending the year poorly enough for a DE or a WR to be more valuable. It doesn't necessarily mean all those QBs are more valuable than Garrett or Hill right now, but it means that they are all more likely to be the most valuable by season's end.

This is part of why Mahomes and Burrow have been up there, even with less than usual starts for the two of them. Is because the MVP odds aren't a reflection of who would get votes now, but who is most likely to deserve those votes 2 1/2 months from now.

I had this same argument in the offseason about Fields being high up on MVP odds. It wasn't a statement that Fields was a top QB. It was just he plays the right position, he has the talent, and if he had taken a leap, him having MVP value was more possible than a known commodity like a Derek Carr, even though Carr is a better QB, or a non-QB like Justin Jefferson, even though Jefferson is clearly one of the best players in football.

Like, this isn't a top 100 ranking, or even a QB ranking. It's a statement of what people predict to be possible by the end of the season.

[Soko]

49 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

They need to rework MVP voting like the Heisman and have 5 finalists--the top 3 QBs, 1 spot for the best skill position player (OPOY) and 1 spot for the best defense player (DPOY). Then have the voters vote out of those 5 who is the most valuable.

So hypothetically the voting would be something like:

Jackson(1), Hurts(2), Stroud(3),  Hill(opoy) and Garrett(dpoy) 

What would that accomplish? 

If Jackson or Hurts or Stroud or whoever is the run away favorite (or even if it’s competitive between the three), then Hill or Garrett still wouldn’t receive any votes. Forcing them to be represented doesn’t get them votes. Nothing has ever stopped the non-QBs from getting votes, they just hardly ever do. Systemically forcing them onto the ballot doesn’t change the MVP.

[AkronsWitness]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

The odds aren't really about that right now, though. The odds are about a projection to the end of the season. So let's say the 5 most valuable players in the league are all QBs. We basically know then that the MVP is going to be a QB. So if the top 15 guys in MVP odds are all QBs, it doesn't mean the 15 most valuable players are all QBs, it's more that we don't know which of those 15 QBs are going to be the top 5 at the end of the season. So like, Trevor Lawrence or Dak Prescott might not be more valuable than Myles Garrett so far this season. But that's not really what we're measuring here when we look at MVP odds. It's which is more likely, Trevor Lawrence having an 8 game stretch to end the season that makes him the most valuable QB, or every QB ending the year poorly enough for a DE or a WR to be more valuable. It doesn't necessarily mean all those QBs are more valuable than Garrett or Hill right now, but it means that they are all more likely to be the most valuable by season's end.

This is part of why Mahomes and Burrow have been up there, even with less than usual starts for the two of them. Is because the MVP odds aren't a reflection of who would get votes now, but who is most likely to deserve those votes 2 1/2 months from now.

I had this same argument in the offseason about Fields being high up on MVP odds. It wasn't a statement that Fields was a top QB. It was just he plays the right position, he has the talent, and if he had taken a leap, him having MVP value was more possible than a known commodity like a Derek Carr, even though Carr is a better QB, or a non-QB like Justin Jefferson, even though Jefferson is clearly one of the best players in football.

Like, this isn't a top 100 ranking, or even a QB ranking. It's a statement of what people predict to be possible by the end of the season.

I get what your saying in the fact its all projections but the odds out right now are a projection based on what sportsbooks know the voters are going to do and are slanted that way. What if no QB separates themselves by the end of the year and you have a bunch of QBs with good, but nothing special seasons (like the entire year up to this point). They would still find a way to justify giving it to a QB, right?

Hill could go for 2k receiving yards and wont even be considered regardless of what any QB does. I know this because Kupp was the first WR in history to go for 2k yards and received 1 pity vote out of 50 voters for MVP. Rodgers won it by passing for whopping 4,100 yards and 37 TDs despite Kupp literally doing something that has never been done in NFL history at his position.

So the precedent has already been set that it might actually be the closest you can get to impossible without it being declared formally impossible by the NFL for anybody but a QB to win in this day/age--and I guess thats my whole beef with the system regardless of the odds that are just a reflection of the weighted voting system towards QB.

Edited November 16, 2023 by AkronsWitness

[NoFlyZone]

7 hours ago, Danger said:

If that's your logic, then you may as well vote for Tua, because Tua is better statistically than Dak and has the same effective resume otherwise.

I wasn’t saying that Dak should be MVP. My points here have just been about the inclusion of him in the conversation as a candidate.